Valuebo Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Bought last week and today (a little): GNCMA OTM puts on SPY, CRM, FB and AMZN (basically to protect long portfolio) 10% short on SPY as hedge I had already written off the puts as insurance but seems like I could get some use out of them in the end. I'm still 100% long too so market direction shouldn't matter much to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petey2720 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Bought TWGP today as a merger arbitrage trade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Bought TWGP today as a merger arbitrage trade I've been looking at Tower as well today, since I received a note from Insurance Insider about the large discount today. I guess with so many material adverse changes already under Tower's belt, there are some that don't believe there won't be at least one more material 'oops'… Big spread if it goes through at $3 cash by 'summer' though… (8-k on merger) http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1289592/000119312514003005/d653094d8k.htm http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1289592/000119312514003005/0001193125-14-003005-index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Added some to the SPY puts we bought a few days ago. Portfolio is about 2/3 hedged. Why? WSBASE has flattened out of the year and a half growth slope, but still too early to say there is a change in the trend. Dynamics of S&P500 slope looks like a market on the verge of a crash, according to Sornette. Fed is concerned about the development of an asset bubble, so they may not save the bacon this time. Market cap/ GDP is high etc etc etc In short, lots of yellow flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest longinvestor Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 IMO, the Street is arm twisting the incoming Fed chief as she is thinking about tapering etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 In short, lots of yellow flags. But the same can be said for 2012 and 2013...... The above statement, honestly, seems like a contrarian flag to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 In short, lots of yellow flags. But the same can be said for 2012 and 2013...... The above statement, honestly, seems like a contrarian flag to me. If hedges were high probability winners, they wouldn't call them hedges. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Yes, it remains a hedge. If I win I practically lose nothing. If the market keeps rising, I win a few percent less. A lot of bearish commentators from different angles (macro, value, technical,..) have been turning. Fear was much higher a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Yes, it remains a hedge. If I win I practically lose nothing. If the market keeps rising, I win a few percent less. A lot of bearish commentators from different angles (macro, value, technical,..) have been turning. Fear was much higher a year ago. yes yes I agree.... btw how exactly do you hedge? with puts on an amount equal to the entire size of your portfolio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraven Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 In short, lots of yellow flags. But the same can be said for 2012 and 2013...... The above statement, honestly, seems like a contrarian flag to me. If hedges were high probability winners, they wouldn't call them hedges. :) Great response. I liked it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onyx1 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Added some to the SPY puts we bought a few days ago. Portfolio is about 2/3 hedged. Why? WSBASE has flattened out of the year and a half growth slope, but still too early to say there is a change in the trend. Dynamics of S&P500 slope looks like a market on the verge of a crash, according to Sornette. Fed is concerned about the development of an asset bubble, so they may not save the bacon this time. Market cap/ GDP is high etc etc etc In short, lots of yellow flags. Raising cash by cutting long exposure and leverage. Not macro related. I want to own assets with a healthy asymmetric return profile but as prices have increased the return profiles are too balanced. Last time I held this much cash was mid-2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 correction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpetrescu Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Nothing. I have no new ideas and 40 something % cash. Well I did buy a tiny bit of FIAT based on this board, but I missed the big run. I'll have a lot to research in a few weeks with 13Fs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I wrote puts on AIG and SHLD this morning. Thanks, Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gjangal Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 C , 90% Tangible book. Betting on them improving their ROE/ROA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-bone1 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 GST . . . company could probably be sold tomorrow at this price and likely worth $9 in six months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Yes, it remains a hedge. If I win I practically lose nothing. If the market keeps rising, I win a few percent less. A lot of bearish commentators from different angles (macro, value, technical,..) have been turning. Fear was much higher a year ago. yes yes I agree.... btw how exactly do you hedge? with puts on an amount equal to the entire size of your portfolio? Yes more or less but I'm not very precise about it. For instance, yesterday I bought some GME puts despite being well hedged already. Generally I will lower my put position as it increases in value or add to them as they get worthless. Nothing fancy. Despite the market drop today, my portfolio was up slightly today and GNCMA isn't making that particulary easy lately. :) It's typical that this kind of market move happens exactly before I leave the country for 4 weeks. Lukily I'll sometimes have access to Wifi in case we get a decent correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 More than fully hedged before today. Bought some more OTM puts today to add to the formerly OTM puts that are now ITM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Nice job! Futures are down another 335 for Monday on the Dow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 For the more able people on the board than me regarding macro impact, how big of an impact can the news of the past couple days affect global growth? I just watched Moynihan on cnbc thinks he United States will grow 3 percent and 3.6 percent for global growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Nice job! Futures are down another 335 for Monday on the Dow Come on, check your number. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 For the more able people on the board than me regarding macro impact, how big of an impact can the news of the past couple days affect global growth? I just watched Moynihan on cnbc thinks he United States will grow 3 percent and 3.6 percent for global growth. What news? The only news I remember that is significant was China's PMI dropped. Market does not go straight up or down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 More than fully hedged before today. Bought some more OTM puts today to add to the formerly OTM puts that are now ITM. Nice, I sold half of my OTM puts. I wasted lots of money on these so called hedge last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 "Come on, check your number" I checked Bloomberg from my phone. Apologize if misread it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 "Come on, check your number" I checked Bloomberg from my phone. Apologize if misread it. No worries, that's the future for today, not next Monday. (I mean the 300 pts is today's drop) Future is indeed lower than todays' close tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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