What are you buying today?

[KPO]

Doubled up my MAT position 

[EgonKuhn]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

I've started to get back to my Swedish Real Estate basket these days.

 

Today I've got filled on a few shares today of WIHL.STO - Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB.

I took a look at them on TIKR and was a bit alarmed to see that they actually even more debt now than during the last downturn in 2022. Doesn't that worry you a bit? As long as interest rates in Europe remain relatively low, everything will likely be fine. But if we ever see a period of higher interest rates again, there won't be much left over for dividends.

[John Hjorth]

12 minutes ago, EgonKuhn said:

I took a look at them on TIKR and was a bit alarmed to see that they actually even more debt now than during the last downturn in 2022. Doesn't that worry you a bit? As long as interest rates in Europe remain relatively low, everything will likely be fine. But if we ever see a period of higher interest rates again, there won't be much left over for dividends.

 

You're right, Egon [ @EgonKuhn ],

 

So, the question is really, what is [almost] dirt  cheap, and what is really dirt? I'm trying to find out, over time. Eventually , over a period, I'll find out, over some time. [I have done the same with something as much out of favour at times as banks, it has [net] played out quite well, so far.]

 

[This approach may cause some [minor] scars, but that's the Terms & Conditions of Trial & Error Approach here. [ I'm not even trying here to cover it it up as anything else.]]

[EgonKuhn]

3 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

You're right, Egon [ @EgonKuhn ],

 

So, the question is really, what is [almost] dirt  cheap, and what is really dirt? I'm trying to find out, over time. Eventually , over a period, I'll find out, over some time. [I have done the same with something as much out of favour at times as banks, it has [net] played out quite well, so far.]

 

[This approach may cause some [minor] scars, but that's the Terms & Conditions of Trial & Error Approach here. [ I'm not even trying here to cover it it up as anything else.]]

Thanks for your perspective here! I have some of these Nordic RE plays in my watch list but never pulled the trigger because of their indebtedness after so many years of extremely low interest rates in Europe.

[sleepydragon]

1 hour ago, sleepydragon said:

Added to TSM and STX

And bought NBIS too

[lnofeisone]

1 hour ago, KPO said:

Doubled up my MAT position 

I looked at MAT today. Do you have a theory or any suggestions where to get started?

[lnofeisone]

I added to bntx and funding it by selling lqda puts.

[KPO]

15 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

I looked at MAT today. Do you have a theory or any suggestions where to get started?

The buybacks are a significant part of my interest, and they obviously have some very valuable IP. I spent some time looking at valuation (P/E, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield) against their own 15 year history and compared to Hasbro. Hasbro has better gross margins, partially due to product mix, but I’m not sure that supports a 50-60% premium. And MAT is unquestionably cheap against its own history. I could see them being taken out if this valuation holds or drops much further. 
 

Also, The Masters of the Universe movie was the disaster I expected, but MGM/AMZN are the financial losers on that deal since it was a mostly licensing financial event for MAT. It’s probably fair to say that merchandise pull-through was a disappointment though. I expect their next couple movies to be more successful and drive more pull-through, but Matchbox and Hot Wheels are actually performing pretty well on their own. 
 

Ultimately it’s a similar set-up to Nintendo……great IP, actually much cheaper valuation, but a competent and shareholder-oriented management team.  
 

What are your thoughts? And can you link this to the MAT thread? I’m technically challenged!