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Posted
On 4/9/2026 at 1:16 PM, Marco Van Basten said:

It is my understanding that under the Peruvian law, Holcim has to tender for the rest.  If I am not mistaken, both Holcim and CPAC stated that, and so did a JP Morgan analyst.  However, let's say that Holcim does not.  Then you own shares that pro-forma for announced synergies, at $10.75 is trading at around 13-14% free cash flow yield to the equity, and I expect most of that be paid out as dividend.  I am happy to own a cement company in Peru, in a growing cement market, controlled by Holcim, with a 13-14% free cash flow yield and paying probably a double digit dividend yield.   20% spread reference the difference between roughly $13 price that Holcim must (as far as I understand) pay per ADR vs $10.75 at which it currently trades.  

 

You sure ab out those numbers? It didn't have a double digit dividend yield before the offer, when the share price was significantly lower. Unless the cycle has turned and the economy is picking up I don't see how it generates that much cash?

Posted
48 minutes ago, petec said:

 

You sure ab out those numbers? It didn't have a double digit dividend yield before the offer, when the share price was significantly lower. Unless the cycle has turned and the economy is picking up I don't see how it generates that much cash?

If I recall correctly, in the Holcim press release which announced the acquisition, Holcim promised synergies that would increase EBIT by more than 30%, and even more on the EPS line.  

Posted
40 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

If I recall correctly, in the Holcim press release which announced the acquisition, Holcim promised synergies that would increase EBIT by more than 30%, and even more on the EPS line.  

 

Impressive if true. I'm not sure what they'd come from though. I don't think CPAC was particularly fat, and IRC they mostly source locally so combining procurement power isn't going to move the needle.

Posted (edited)

Bought a bunch of sod to make a soccer field and an equivalent amount of Nintendo. I may have to water the former with the tears of the kingdom. 

image.thumb.png.db50eebebbbf6e83c71c2e8ca7c0f1ab.png

Edited by Cod Liver Oil
Posted
15 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Bought a bunch of sod to make a soccer field and an equivalent amount of Nintendo. I may have to water the former with the tears of the kingdom. 

image.thumb.png.db50eebebbbf6e83c71c2e8ca7c0f1ab.png

 

A soccer field for the kids?

 

Now that is a great dad!

Posted (edited)

Itochu Corp (TSE: 8001) - not deep value cheep, as it was few years ago, but still reasonable (compared to US alt), is a high quality compounder & I like it as my exposure for Japan/Asia.

Edited by MxMI17
Posted
14 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Bought a bunch of sod to make a soccer field and an equivalent amount of Nintendo. I may have to water the former with the tears of the kingdom. 

image.thumb.png.db50eebebbbf6e83c71c2e8ca7c0f1ab.png

 

Real soccer fans call it football, the other game is a load of dudes on steroids playing pass the hand egg.

 

In all seriousness, pretty cool, and weather looks amazing.

Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Bought a bunch of sod to make a soccer field and an equivalent amount of Nintendo. I may have to water the former with the tears of the kingdom. 

image.thumb.png.db50eebebbbf6e83c71c2e8ca7c0f1ab.png

 

16 hours ago, cubsfan said:

A soccer field for the kids?

 

Now that is a great dad!

 

2 hours ago, Sweet said:

Real soccer fans call it football, the other game is a load of dudes on steroids playing pass the hand egg.

 

In all seriousness, pretty cool, and weather looks amazing.

 

Great humor! 😅

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Bought a few more Berkshire Hathaway B shares today.

Edited by John Hjorth
Posted
1 hour ago, Eldad said:

Lots of BRK.B, Greg better be buying too. 

 

Isn't it quiet period?

 

I picked up more call options. Love the low IV. Potential for big bump post Q1 earnings/agm

Posted
9 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said:

 

Isn't it quiet period?

 

I picked up more call options. Love the low IV. Potential for big bump post Q1 earnings/agm

Yes you are right. But if these prices persist, I really hope they are big buyers. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Eldad said:

Lots of BRK.B, Greg better be buying too. 

 

Greg / Berkshire is not buying.  Berkshire stopped buying shares 2 weeks before March 31st.  Which is coincidentally when the price started falling.

 

A couple days after the AGM (the morning release of the 10Q) will put Berkshire back in an open period to repurchase their shares. 

Posted

I was hoping BRK would hit $999.99 Billion market cap today but we didn't get there.  Maybe tomorrow

Posted (edited)

can you all lay out some math why Berkshire cheap? I see ATH in terms of cash / assets. ATH in terms of stocks / assets.  Deleveraging and becoming more liquid as they made money in stocks and sold those. cash is worth cash*. stocks, absent big undervaluation are worth stocks. none of the large positions are freshly bought and are at far higher multiples than when bought. you can mark up BNSF, BRKHEC as you please and assign some value to the insurance franchise....I'm just not getting much higher than current doing the usual berkshire adjustments.

 

said as much on twitter...a few people agreed...a few people insulted...no one showed math that got 20 or 30 or 40% higher price. 

 

Berkshire is basically at its average P/B of the last 15-20 years. I would argue it should trade cheaper than it has because of buffett closer and closer to the end and the enormity of reinvestment risk...of course if berkshire is actually cheap, then easy button capital allocation is just buy back stock

 

 

*this is where the devoted quote buffett re optionality of cash or say cash is worth more in buffett/abel's hands

Edited by thepupil
Posted

Berkshire isn't cheap.  It's just slightly cheaper than it has been for a while and around the same price it traded at two years ago.  Nobody is getting caught short on BRK stock so it isn't melting up with the market.

 

Maybe Abel pulls an Allbirds at the AGM 🚀

Posted (edited)

like this doesn't seem so wildly off (UBS note to which i have access)...are we really pumped to buy or for berkshire to shrink the equity base via buybacks at 92 cents on the dollar? 

 

are we excited at the prospect of an actively mgd stock portfolio that's $300B+

are we excited for big acquisitions? 

 

I selfishly want Berkshire to go down more an offer a margin of safety...I might be too greedy, but i'm kind of surprised at the chorus of "it's cheap"

 

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Edited by thepupil
Posted
9 minutes ago, thepupil said:

can you all lay out some math why Berkshire cheap? I see ATH in terms of cash / assets. ATH in terms of stocks / assets.  Deleveraging and becoming more liquid as they made money in stocks and sold those. cash is worth cash*. stocks, absent big undervaluation are worth stocks. none of the large positions are freshly bought and are at far higher multiples than when bought. you can mark up BNSF, BRKHEC as you please and assign some value to the insurance franchise....I'm just not getting much higher than current doing the usual berkshire adjustments.

 

said as much on twitter...a few people agreed...a few people insulted...no one showed math that got 20 or 30 or 40% higher price. 

 

 

*this is where the devoted quote buffett re optionality of cash or say cash is worth more in buffett/abel's hands

I don’t think it’s super cheap. It’s back to a good deal and I have a bunch of cash and am totally fine to make 10-12% in this crazy era. 
 

Based on YE financials, I get to roughly $276 a share in cash + securities - liabilities (not including float or deferred tax)

 

Then I get to $20.62 a share in operating earnings. So 465 -276 = 189. So I’m getting all of the operating companies for 9x. 
 

This investment doesn’t work without aggressive buybacks when it gets cheap. Greg putting his entire salary into shares and pushing the old man to buyback changed the way I think about BRK. 

Posted

Also, the buybacks, prior to Greg’s new one, averaged 1.44x book. That was what WB considered a “substantial discount to IV”. I know BV isn’t perfect but we are now in the 1.39 range so it’s a little better than a fair deal for the buyer IMO. 

Posted

Also, the buybacks, prior to Greg’s new one, averaged 1.44x book. That was what WB considered a “substantial discount to IV”. I know BV isn’t perfect but we are now in the 1.39 range so it’s a little better than a fair deal for the buyer IMO. 

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