Paarslaars Posted January 1 Posted January 1 On 12/25/2025 at 7:40 AM, Spekulatius said: Silver is also the last metal to get caught in the last leg of a precious metal bull market before they crash. It seems to work without fail since 1980 (the Hunt brothers frenzy). Good to know, we can use gold as the canary in the coal mine. Though I am wondering if silver will still behave as a monetary metal, with industrial use over 60% and it being absolutely essential for EVs, solar cells, GPU/TPUs, etc... and the industry is very price inelastic so not sure if this is coming down soon.
wisowis Posted January 2 Posted January 2 Started WDAY. Added to ELF.TO last fews days of the year since there seemed to be some selling pressure.
benchmark Posted January 2 Posted January 2 18 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: Added to WDAY, RYAN, RELY and SDXAY (Sodexo). @Spekulatius @wisowis what is the thesis for WDAY? everyone i know who uses Workday hates them.
Eng12345 Posted January 2 Posted January 2 (edited) 7 hours ago, jfan said: Bought some CSU, LB Yeah I started a position in TOI, CSU and Lumine the other day. Wasn’t sure how to pick the best Seems like a good time to buy some good companies Edited January 2 by Eng12345
Spekulatius Posted January 3 Posted January 3 8 hours ago, benchmark said: @Spekulatius @wisowis what is the thesis for WDAY? everyone i know who uses Workday hates them. Why do they hate it? I am a user who doesn’t. The alternatives I came across as a user were worse (SAP modules). Anyways, the stock is cheap if you look at NonGaap numbers. It’s a category leader growing low to mid teens and I think they can do so for quite some time while also improving margins. For comparison, WDAY trades at ~EV/ 5x revenues with 75% and growing gross margins compared to ROP at 6.7x with less organic gross (relying on acquisitions to grow). So, I think it’s cheaper than ROP.
jfan Posted January 3 Posted January 3 18 hours ago, Eng12345 said: Yeah I started a position in TOI, CSU and Lumine the other day. Wasn’t sure how to pick the best Seems like a good time to buy some good companies The market expects a 5 year runway for their current acquisition/hurdle rate pace for CSU. And even if that happens, there should be much more cash flow in the terminal years if they don't need all their in-house M&A experts. Also I'd expect management to continue more spin-outs over time to unlock value without having to resort to repurchasing shares, leveraging up, or handing out special dividends. The more I think about this AI pullback, I think betting on CSU's thousands of employees, sharing of best practices, proprietary data on customer workflows, I think the odds of someone or some internal group figuring out how to incorporate AI profitably without having to bet the farm on cutting edge innovation, are pretty good. Working on TOI now, and agree with you, its looking pretty attractive as well.
Eng12345 Posted January 3 Posted January 3 15 minutes ago, jfan said: The market expects a 5 year runway for their current acquisition/hurdle rate pace for CSU. And even if that happens, there should be much more cash flow in the terminal years if they don't need all their in-house M&A experts. Also I'd expect management to continue more spin-outs over time to unlock value without having to resort to repurchasing shares, leveraging up, or handing out special dividends. The more I think about this AI pullback, I think betting on CSU's thousands of employees, sharing of best practices, proprietary data on customer workflows, I think the odds of someone or some internal group figuring out how to incorporate AI profitably without having to bet the farm on cutting edge innovation, are pretty good. Working on TOI now, and agree with you, its looking pretty attractive as well. I agree in many ways, but what I haven't figured out is how to think of the different companies (CSU, TOI, LUMIN) differently. They seem essentially similar/same with different end markets to me.
jfan Posted January 3 Posted January 3 15 minutes ago, Eng12345 said: I agree in many ways, but what I haven't figured out is how to think of the different companies (CSU, TOI, LUMIN) differently. They seem essentially similar/same with different end markets to me. Just a gut feeling, but I don't think the end-markets matter that much. IIRC TOI is more Europe focused but they also have operations internationally as well. I suspect that they are not very different into terms of the more important activities of M&A, integration of best practices, mentorship, and promotion from within. The only core thing is how to scale employee ownership mentality as CSU gets large and future returns taper with size constraints (although I'm not sure what the upper limit is here - but I suspect larger than we think). I think TOI and Lumine spin-out is a way to provide employees with much better IRRs than buying CSU shares, and tying their emotional attachment to the operating group they work with better.
dipod Posted January 5 Posted January 5 Shorted some short term slightly OTM puts on LLY (Friday expiry).
Luke Posted January 6 Posted January 6 7 hours ago, Spekulatius said: A few more shares of CSU today. Nice.
Valuebo Posted January 7 Posted January 7 GTLB. Seems very cheap both on valuation and room for increased pricing, which could result in a double whammy. So I went with some leaps. Should probably dare to buy more.
Valuebo Posted January 8 Posted January 8 More CPNG & GTLB. Market is interesting lately. Many of my positions doing well but these seem to have some gravity problem. Sometimes it's best not to overanalyze and just buy when you get the offer I guess.
Eldad Posted January 8 Posted January 8 22 minutes ago, Castanza said: Added some AJG, CSU and CPRT the past few days I went a lot bigger on CPRT yesterday. I thought if I’m not going to bet on this here in more size, what will I ever buy? Insane margins and ROIC, no debt, $5 a share in cash, duopoly that is both internet and land based, a royalty on more cars, miles driven, and car price inflation. Founder and son in law own 10%. 20x FCF if you add back the Purchased PP&E cost for land. What else do you want? Everything was a lot easier and less stressful when I could just wait for BRK to get cheap. Those days are gone. Still have 10% in old BRK so I hope Greg proves me wrong.
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now