What are you buying today?

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, Jaygo said:

Have a look at Soma too. I put it more in a spec pile than Mako but there are some similarities you may find interesting. Similar scale and AISC. Columbia vs Nicaragua Both looking to double production in the next 2yrs.  

 

The one thing that allows me to hold mako in much larger scale is the Jurisdictional risk is far less and Akiba is so vocal you always know what's going on. Soma is not promotional at all so its hard to keep track of progress.

 

I hold roughly 10x more mako, but soma has performed far better so far.

 

I did think for a while Mako was a bit pricy until the wizardry of Moss came down the pipe. That really changed everything Imo because it takes a significant amount of financial stress off the buildout of eagle mountain. My sincere hope is that they are able to build out eagle mountain without raising equity at these prices. If we get to 8 or 10 a share I may feel differently but at 5 I would hate to see equity raised.

 

 

I think the NAV of Eagle Mountain is up to $1.2b at these gold prices from $290m at $1850 gold when they bought it. The shares they issued are worth $50m now. At this level of cash flow it seems unlikely they will need to raise equity. They can borrow at the corporate level or at the project level to fill in the gap if needed. 

[Lance]

Writing about puts on M.

 

Trimmed AVGO.

 

Thanks

Lance

[Jaygo]

1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

They can borrow at the corporate level or at the project level to fill in the gap if needed. 

This is my hope. At this level if they can get the mine built and operating successfully sometime in 2028 and gold stays in a range this could be a home run from todays valuation. My blue sky is a 1 billion valuation by fall of 2028 but lots has to go right. Not sure of the exact timing but I want to see 6 months of Eagle mountain operations then its on like Donkey Kong!

 

I always temper my expectations but with a few of the investments lately its tough not to get excited. 

 

Pitfalls for the stock price would be gold going down to sub 3K. It will still be amazing for the company but the market will panic.

 

The other is Nicaragua doing South American funny business that it is famous for. 

 

And finally hiccups in building out Guyana. These guys are good but building a large mine and processor in the rainforest is not easy at all. 10 ft of annual rainfall and constant heat and humidity causes all sorts of issues. The one thing they have going for it are the Guyanese are just about the most awesome people I know. I happen to know a bunch and they are really friendly, hardworking and happy bunch. 

 

[lnofeisone]

2 hours ago, Lance said:

Writing about puts on M.

 

Trimmed AVGO.

 

Thanks

Lance

which puts are you writing? i've been looking to write some but M's low vol is keeping these puts too cheap for me to write any. 

[Voodooking]

Valaris (VAL)

[SafetyinNumbers]

3 hours ago, Jaygo said:

This is my hope. At this level if they can get the mine built and operating successfully sometime in 2028 and gold stays in a range this could be a home run from todays valuation. My blue sky is a 1 billion valuation by fall of 2028 but lots has to go right. Not sure of the exact timing but I want to see 6 months of Eagle mountain operations then its on like Donkey Kong!

 

I always temper my expectations but with a few of the investments lately its tough not to get excited. 

 

Pitfalls for the stock price would be gold going down to sub 3K. It will still be amazing for the company but the market will panic.

 

The other is Nicaragua doing South American funny business that it is famous for. 

 

And finally hiccups in building out Guyana. These guys are good but building a large mine and processor in the rainforest is not easy at all. 10 ft of annual rainfall and constant heat and humidity causes all sorts of issues. The one thing they have going for it are the Guyanese are just about the most awesome people I know. I happen to know a bunch and they are really friendly, hardworking and happy bunch. 

 

Your blue sky is about 3x 2028 OpCF all else being equal and assuming they don’t do any acquisitions or expand Nicaragua by then. By then it should be more liquid, in the GDXJ and listed in the US. That should result in multiple expansion instead of contraction but we’ll see. 

[EricSchleien]

Bought a little tiny profitable microcap at 2x earnings. Shares rarely trade and was able to find a block at a heavy discount to last trade price. Maybe someone put in a market order. Who knows. Lucky me.

[73 Reds]

5 minutes ago, EricSchleien said:

Bought a little tiny profitable microcap at 2x earnings. Shares rarely trade and was able to find a block at a heavy discount to last trade price. Maybe someone put in a market order. Who knows. Lucky me.

I won't ask if the stock has a name but surely someone else here will.  Stocks that trade by appointment are of no interest without control of the company.

[buylowersellhigh]

GTX

[DooDiligence]

44 minutes ago, EricSchleien said:

Bought a little tiny profitable microcap at 2x earnings. Shares rarely trade and was able to find a block at a heavy discount to last trade price. Maybe someone put in a market order. Who knows. Lucky me.

 

[valueventures]

1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Your blue sky is about 3x 2028 OpCF all else being equal and assuming they don’t do any acquisitions or expand Nicaragua by then. By then it should be more liquid, in the GDXJ and listed in the US. That should result in multiple expansion instead of contraction but we’ll see. 

How are you thinking about your 3-5 year base and upside case?

[WayWardCloud]

trimmed a little Amazon to buy a little Alphabet.

Probably just tinkering around the edges because I'm bored.

[Jaygo]

1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Your blue sky is about 3x 2028 OpCF all else being equal and assuming they don’t do any acquisitions or expand Nicaragua by then. By then it should be more liquid, in the GDXJ and listed in the US. That should result in multiple expansion instead of contraction but we’ll see. 

 

Are they expecting to reach 300-350 million OPCF? I guess I expected somewhat less. 

 

A company tripling in value in 3 years is blue sky to me no matter what.. If its better than that all the better. 

[valueventures]

24 minutes ago, Jaygo said:

 

Are they expecting to reach 300-350 million OPCF? I guess I expected somewhat less. 

 

A company tripling in value in 3 years is blue sky to me no matter what.. If its better than that all the better. 

How material is your position? Just curious how you think about position sizing given the commodity risk. 

[hasilp89]

 

2 hours ago, buylowersellhigh said:

GTX

 

Curious what your thesis is? (I've owned it for a while and am still long)

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, Jaygo said:

 

Are they expecting to reach 300-350 million OPCF? I guess I expected somewhat less. 

 

A company tripling in value in 3 years is blue sky to me no matter what.. If it’s better than that all the better. 

I’m assuming a lot - they build Guyana and expand Nicaragua by 2028. Run.rate would be about ~180k oz at $1800-2000 margins potentially. I think it’s naive to think there won’t be more deals before then though. If those are accretive then it could be much better than that. It’s a bet on execution and commodity prices to a much lesser extent that seems very mispriced.
 

My core Mako position is about 10% of my net assets. I don’t recommend anyone own any let alone that much but I like the risk reward and can afford to make mistakes. 

[This2ShallPass]

Added to TSMC.

 

Switched my MGM stock to IAC, still have MGM ITM calls.

[Jaygo]

2 hours ago, valueventures said:

How material is your position? Just curious how you think about position sizing given the commodity risk. 

 

The commodity risk is somewhat low. In my mind the economics of the business is pretty safe but a gold slide would hurt the stocks a lot. Say we drop to $2500 on gold. The stocks would get crushed due to bad sentiment but the companies would continue to make a lot of money. Most of my holdings haven't caught up to $3300 gold yet Imo and are trading where they would at $2500.00 anyway. It seems the market doesn't want to believe $3000.00 plus gold but how long does it have to go on for. Another year and some of the companies will make 1/3 of their market cap alone.

 

Mako is currently about 7% of my portfolio and gold related equities are an additional 7% or slightly more. 

 

I am not a gold bug per say but I do feel that gold is money and a currency debasement globally is ramping up pretty quick here. It could be farmland, or timber but that is harder to gauge. I like gold companies because some of them can actually make a lot of money when the time is right and I feel that is where we are today. I have a few 300% gainers in just over a year so I am cognisant that some stuff has run and the cheapness is waning. I will absolutely be taking profits and adjusting holdings over time. 

 

The vast majority of companies I see are not buy and hold, they are basically momentum stocks and i'm here for a good time not a long time, Mako is different in that management seems very good and open and honest. Funny enough it is one of my lowest performing gold stocks and also the largest holding. Still happy though.

 

 

[buylowersellhigh]

13 hours ago, hasilp89 said:

 

 

Curious what your thesis is? (I've owned it for a while and am still long)

Averaged up on existing position.  trading at 10x FCF.  Think the secondary wasn't well received, but it was expected from the large hedge funds.  Plus, the company will be able to buy the 2MM shares for less than $25MM.  I like the capital allocation at this level.  Essentially, the turbocharger/ICE will have a longer life than is currently expected.  In addition, the company is standing still on the EV front.

 

[WFF]

12 hours ago, This2ShallPass said:

Switched my MGM stock to IAC

Any reason aside from IAC trading at a discount to the proxy?

[buylowersellhigh]

1 hour ago, buylowersellhigh said:

Averaged up on existing position.  trading at 10x FCF.  Think the secondary wasn't well received, but it was expected from the large hedge funds.  Plus, the company will be able to buy the 2MM shares for less than $25MM.  I like the capital allocation at this level.  Essentially, the turbocharger/ICE will have a longer life than is currently expected.  In addition, the company is standing still on the EV front.

 

"..isn't standing still on the EV front."

[tnathan]

This is funny -- bought a 10k position in ABL so I would be forced to study it a bit more, then 5 minutes later a short report is released and stock is down 15%. Promptly sold. Always a fun day in the market!

[gfp]

3 minutes ago, tnathan said:

This is funny -- bought a 10k position in ABL so I would be forced to study it a bit more, then 5 minutes later a short report is released and stock is down 15%. Promptly sold. Always a fun day in the market!

 

Ten thousand shares or ten thousand dollars worth?  

[tnathan]

3 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

Ten thousand shares or ten thousand dollars worth?  

Dollars only luckily 

[Lance]

On 6/3/2025 at 3:30 PM, lnofeisone said:

which puts are you writing? i've been looking to write some but M's low vol is keeping these puts too cheap for me to write any. 

The 6/13 $11 puts.  
 

Thanks

Lance