What are you buying today?

[Gregmal]

12/22 VIX $20 calls. Weird action in the VIX last few days despite rising market. Lotta toppy type signals with the TSLA/BTC stuff of the world. Kinda interesting. 

[formthirteen]

4 hours ago, bathtime said:

Congratulations on a great trade. Was researching PTON and saw it was rated as #1 brand. Above Apple, NetfIix, Costco, Chick-Fil-A, etc. I’m tempted to go long here. 
 

https://www.comparably.com/brands
 

 

 

Congratulations. I'm also thinking of buying I bought a starter position in PTON. The bike, the tread, PTON. This must be it, the top.

 

Quote

We're a software company. The entire leadership team comes from consumer Internet… what differentiates us is the software, which includes the streaming and the gamification and the network. We're also a media company on top of that, because we're streaming 12 hours of live TV content each day and have another 4,000 classes on-demand. - Peloton CEO John Foley

 

 

 

Edited November 8, 2021 by formthirteen
thinking of buying => bought

[KPO]

7 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

Congratulations. I'm also thinking of buying I bought a starter position in PTON. The bike, the tread, PTON. This must be it, the top.

 

 

 

 

I don’t have a position on Peloton, and the list after them in your post seems impressive, but is there any research to suggest NPS is a good leading indicator of long term shareholder returns? 

[Broeb22]

5 minutes ago, KPO said:

I don’t have a position on Peloton, and the list after them in your post seems impressive, but is there any research to suggest NPS is a good leading indicator of long term shareholder returns? 

My heuristic answer to that chart and why PTON’s score might be misleading is that PTON is still relatively small, with only a few million users. These other companies mentioned interact with millions if not billions of people every day. I would think most brands start with high NPS scores among their core demographic. There is probably more explanatory power the larger the user base becomes for the product relative to its TAM, which is kind of circular logic, I suppose. I hate using TAM but I think it’s important for how I‘m thinking about this because the maker of craft whiskey is inherently playing in a different sized pool than a global smartphone maker.

[formthirteen]

4 hours ago, KPO said:

I don’t have a position on Peloton, and the list after them in your post seems impressive, but is there any research to suggest NPS is a good leading indicator of long term shareholder returns? 

 

The NPS score maybe reflects the quality of their product and word-of-mouth marketing at the time it was done. It's just a model, reality is in front of our eyes. Are people dumping The Bike and The Tread? With a small position I don't care. It could drop 50% or more, and probably will at some point, just like Netflix has done multiple times.

 

My intuition tells me NPS and shareholder returns are sometimes correlated. Temporary causation might exist and a study might detect this. The research would anyways be invalid for any specific stock, because theoretical models don't reflect reality.

 

Edited November 9, 2021 by formthirteen
added "maybe reflects"

[Red Lion]

Sold April  $15 APTS calls for $0.55 right before they blew out to $0.80. So now I have the $10/$15 call spread on for $2.40

[Gregmal]

9 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

The NPS score maybe reflects the quality of their product and word-of-mouth marketing at the time it was done. It's just a model, reality is in front of our eyes. Are people dumping The Bike and The Tread? With a small position I don't care. It could drop 50% or more, and probably will at some point, just like Netflix has done multiple times.

 

My intuition tells me NPS and shareholder returns are sometimes correlated. Temporary causation might exist and a study might detect this. The research would anyways be invalid for any specific stock, because theoretical models don't reflect reality.

 

A good brand is worth its weight in gold and worth overpaying for. Elon Musk can sell flame-throwers and hats and do millions in revenue because of his brand value. You and I? Not so much. PTON is now a shittily run hardware company masquerading as SAAS with accelerating losses, and a pot committed management. I dont think the bottom is anywhere close to in yet, but thats why you size it small and just play with it til things settle down a bit. 

[Pelagic]

CLF. I've been selling puts on it for a while but only had a small share position, added to that on today's weakness.

[Red Lion]

Used the proceeds from my ill timed sale of APTS $15 call options into buying a few more shares of APO. 

[Spekulatius]

Bought a starter in $SWMA.ST / $SWMAY (Swedish Match) and just a few shares of $JXN at the open.

[boilermaker75]

The usual, wrote 280-strike, Nov 19 expiration puts on BRKB for $1.15 per share.

[Red Lion]

Added to APO at 74.65.

[Gregmal]

Puts on SPCE and PLTR

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Puts on SPCE and PLTR

Buying puts on Palantir?

[Gregmal]

yea. crap business. meme stock. huge retail shareholder base. likely gonna puke back to low-mid teens if the market gets wobbly IMO

[E. Nashton]

4 hours ago, Gregmal said:

yea. crap business. meme stock. huge retail shareholder base. likely gonna puke back to low-mid teens if the market gets wobbly IMO

The conference call was a disaster. On top of items you listed the SBC is insane and they filed for a shelf offering maybe a month ago as well. 

[Lance]

Wrote puts on XLE

 

Thanks

Lance

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, Dean said:

The conference call was a disaster. On top of items you listed the SBC is insane and they filed for a shelf offering maybe a month ago as well. 

SBC Leads to a 14% annual dilution rate. if you have a 38% grower with a 14% dilution rate, then the growth /share is ~18%. That’s not so hot at a 26x revenue EV.

 

PLTR has this mystique about them that seems to appeal to retail investors. That has been able to bolster their valuation so far.

[Gregmal]

Started a little Disney.

[aws]

More MARA puts, this time March $40s. It's fighting the momentum, but it's too tempting after the stock got a fresh 30% or so boost since the last time BTC traded at these prices, even as mining profitability has predictably edged back down. I still see no reason the stock should trade above $10, but it's been a big beneficiary of retail mania and momentum. Since that cuts both ways, I'm hoping I have enough time for these puts to play out.

[CapriciousCapital]

Picked up some I bonds at 0%. Guaranteed to lose value (albeit at a slower rate than cash at 0.5%).

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, aws said:

More MARA puts, this time March $40s. It's fighting the momentum, but it's too tempting after the stock got a fresh 30% or so boost since the last time BTC traded at these prices, even as mining profitability has predictably edged back down. I still see no reason the stock should trade above $10, but it's been a big beneficiary of retail mania and momentum. Since that cuts both ways, I'm hoping I have enough time for these puts to play out.

It's interesting how this POS can move from ~$2 to $70. No balance sheet and income statement analysis required. Just front run retail.

[aws]

I've been following MARA for about four years. It's been mixed up with a web of shady microcap stock frauds. At one point in 2017 it traded for something like a $4 billion valuation right after they announced the bitcoin pivot but before they had a single asset in place. It wouldn't surprise me that there were still paid pumpers working behind the scenes. Now with the incredibly loose money available this year and unprecedented ease of pumping stocks with the likes of wallstreetbets, they've spun it into something resembling a legitimate business. But still one that inexplicably carries a 1000% premium to tangible assets.

[Spekulatius]

Bought some $BMBL. 20% down seems like an overreaction to decent looking earnings. Trading at half the P/S multiple of $MTCH.

 

Maybe I do some research when my wife isn't looking.

Edited November 11, 2021 by Spekulatius

[KJP]

Added to Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Co.