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Posted

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPCA

 

Real US GDP more than doubled between 1929 and 1954. What kind of insane garbage are you stuffing your head with?

 

That's how long it took the market to recover. That's not healthy.

Dude, put down the bottle!

 

That has nothing to do with recessions or the economy. By that logic the economy was total shit between 1969 and 1992. The economy also really sucked between 2000 and 2007 and didn't really find it's legs again till 2014. I guess if you speak to a tulip trader the economy has been in a recession since 1637.

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Posted

 

Very good stuff in this blogpost.

Thanks for posting.

 

SD

 

You're welcome.

 

@DeepSouth can you understand you're a masochist from my point of view? Anyway, let's just all vote with our wallets and things will work out at some point :)

 

I honestly don't understand your point of view. I'd say the empirical end result of your policy desires leads to decade long depressions and wild and violent swings in inflation and deflation. It's not masochism to desire an entity with the power to smooth out economic cycles and encourage growth. The federal reserve is one of the few things the US government gets mostly right. If you're terrified of your savings being withered away by low single digit inflation but don't want principal risk for your savings buy TIPS.

 

I own bitcoin because I think the risk/reward is fair from here even though I think most bullish arguments for bitcoin are very stupid.

 

The policy of the last ~120 years led to huge bubbles and (long! 20+ years at times) subsequent recesions while an organic market won't have recesions lasting longer than a few years. I concider loving that ewuivalent with loving pain.

 

On top of that an organic market rewards its participants more fairly in the sense that good decisions lead to financial reward while the current system rewards having the right contacts at the policy maker for the most part.

 

There have been no recessions that lasted 20 years this century, and I just pointed out an example of a decade long depression that occurred in the final decades leading up to the creation of the federal reserve. Per capita real GDP fell 10% over a decade in the US in the latter part of the 1800s. There were massive bubbles before the Federal Reserve (see canals, railroads). These are the facts, you are empirically incorrect, it's not up for debate. Is your persona/feelings so tied up in libertarianism ideology that you are unwilling to use reason and view the world through a historic and empirical prism?

 

Lastly, the idea that most successful people achieved success through inside contacts at the Federal Reserve is a wildly bizarre conspiracy theory that makes no sense.

 

Sept. 3, 1929 until Nov. 23, 1954 is not more than 20 years. Okay, I guess I must suck at math......

 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPCA

 

Real US GDP more than doubled between 1929 and 1954. What kind of insane garbage are you stuffing your head with?

 

That's how long it took the market to recover. That's not healthy.

 

The economy grew on a real basis by 142% over that period. That's not a recovery, that's incredibly impressive growth. As a comparison, the US economy grew on a real per capita basis by 135% over the entire period between 1776 and 1860 (page 29 below). Hard facts and sound logic are laid out right in front of you and you refuse to absorb them. Your theories are insane and have no underlying evidence.

 

https://eml.berkeley.edu/~webfac/cromer/e211_f12/LindertWilliamson.pdf

 

I'm guessing you have a fantasy where there's no central bank and a weak government and in that darwinist society you get to sit in your rightful place as one of society's winners, but your clear lack of coherence and inability to think rationally illustrate that you'd be one of the losers down on your luck living on the street. You should be worshiping the central bank/government for keeping you out of that scenario.

 

Posted

Folks should lighten up a bit -maybe this will help

 

 

’Twas the night before Christmas, and all through the house

Every person was trading, including my spouse;

The mining rigs hummed in the cellar with care,

In hopes that some new bitcoins soon would be there;

 

The children were buying tokens from their beds,

While visions of Porsche Turbos danced in their heads;

And Mama on her laptop, and I on PC

Searched for the next big buying opportunity

 

But then from my desk there arose such a clatter,

I answered the phone to see what was the matter.

I squinted to see by the light of the taper,

As a teenager walked me through his white paper.

 

When, what to my wondering eyes should appear

But a bearded millennial drinking craft beer

He pulled out his phone, checked his what-do-you-call-it

Where one keeps one’s tokens- his digital wallet.

 

More rapid than lightning, the rallies they came

And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name:

"Now Bitcoin! Now Litecoin! Now Ether and Ripple!

If Monero can double, then you can all triple!

 

To the top of the chart! Break the resistance wall!

Now dash away! Dash away! Dash away all!"

And then with a wink, to my office he flew

While lugging a case and swigging his brew

 

As he prepped his ICO pitch to help me gain,

I confirmed a few transactions on the blockchain.

His slide deck was thick; his paper, full of detail

About how he’d attract bids from Asian retail.

 

His eyes--how they twinkled! So this was no hobby

He clearly knew how to pitch the Watanabes

When I asked if he’d come from the North he said "No.

The coin-mining rigs have all melted the snow.

 

I leave for the coast on my sleigh in an hour.

My wind-farm provides me with super-cheap power."

What about the Fed? Do you see any trouble?

He laughed, "You know central banks can’t spot a bubble.

 

The worst they can do is say ’buyer beware.’

It’s like the Wild West... pretty much laissez-faire."

Is there intrinsic value? I mean, what can I buy?

He looked at me sadly and let out a sigh.

 

Then shaking his head, tapped the side of his nose.

"You mean that you can’t see the Emperor’s new clothes?

You’re not a believer, I can feel in my loins.

C’mon! A chap once bought some pizza with coins.

 

You know that the ledger, it needs proof of work.

You’re not only a doubter, you’re some kind of jerk.

Your insistence on value is pretty quaint, Gramps.

Stick to trading stocks or maybe collect stamps.

 

My coin’s not for you, I’ve seen more than enough."

Then he packed up his things and he left in a huff.

But I heard him exclaim as he left, sight unseen:

Happy holidays all, and good luck in ’18

Posted

Edit:

 

I'm going to stop taking the bait and continue to live in my "fantasy" world. Good luck living in yours.

 

What has given me a good belly laugh reading the latest so many posts in this topic is that we are the ones living in a fantasy world and it is we that are going to lose our shirts because these are so obviously nothing but tulips, yet it is they who are so damn out of their minds angry.  It’s “Blockchain Derangement Syndrome” I think.

 

 

Posted

Folks should lighten up a bit -maybe this will help

 

 

’Twas the night before Christmas, and all through the house

Every person was trading, including my spouse;

The mining rigs hummed in the cellar with care,

In hopes that some new bitcoins soon would be there;

 

The children were buying tokens from their beds,

While visions of Porsche Turbos danced in their heads;

And Mama on her laptop, and I on PC

Searched for the next big buying opportunity

 

But then from my desk there arose such a clatter,

I answered the phone to see what was the matter.

I squinted to see by the light of the taper,

As a teenager walked me through his white paper.

 

When, what to my wondering eyes should appear

But a bearded millennial drinking craft beer

He pulled out his phone, checked his what-do-you-call-it

Where one keeps one’s tokens- his digital wallet.

 

More rapid than lightning, the rallies they came

And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name:

"Now Bitcoin! Now Litecoin! Now Ether and Ripple!

If Monero can double, then you can all triple!

 

To the top of the chart! Break the resistance wall!

Now dash away! Dash away! Dash away all!"

And then with a wink, to my office he flew

While lugging a case and swigging his brew

 

As he prepped his ICO pitch to help me gain,

I confirmed a few transactions on the blockchain.

His slide deck was thick; his paper, full of detail

About how he’d attract bids from Asian retail.

 

His eyes--how they twinkled! So this was no hobby

He clearly knew how to pitch the Watanabes

When I asked if he’d come from the North he said "No.

The coin-mining rigs have all melted the snow.

 

I leave for the coast on my sleigh in an hour.

My wind-farm provides me with super-cheap power."

What about the Fed? Do you see any trouble?

He laughed, "You know central banks can’t spot a bubble.

 

The worst they can do is say ’buyer beware.’

It’s like the Wild West... pretty much laissez-faire."

Is there intrinsic value? I mean, what can I buy?

He looked at me sadly and let out a sigh.

 

Then shaking his head, tapped the side of his nose.

"You mean that you can’t see the Emperor’s new clothes?

You’re not a believer, I can feel in my loins.

C’mon! A chap once bought some pizza with coins.

 

You know that the ledger, it needs proof of work.

You’re not only a doubter, you’re some kind of jerk.

Your insistence on value is pretty quaint, Gramps.

Stick to trading stocks or maybe collect stamps.

 

My coin’s not for you, I’ve seen more than enough."

Then he packed up his things and he left in a huff.

But I heard him exclaim as he left, sight unseen:

Happy holidays all, and good luck in ’18

 

Damn, this is pretty good!

Thanks for posting.

 

SD

 

Posted

Angry about what Rkbabang?

 

Want to see real money making? Have a look at this chart from $0.20:

 

http://www.stockwatch.com/Quote/Detail.aspx?symbol=N&region=C

 

Do I think it is some kind of long term hold? Hell no!

 

Cardboard

 

 

I don’t know exactly where the anger is coming from, but if you are reading the same discussion I am, you will see the rudeness, name calling, personal attacks, and other school yard immaturity are not coming from the bitcoin bulls here.  Also I am starting to see the same thing else where as well.  Just a pattern I’ve been noticing and I’m pointing it out.

Posted

Angry about what Rkbabang?

 

Want to see real money making? Have a look at this chart from $0.20:

 

http://www.stockwatch.com/Quote/Detail.aspx?symbol=N&region=C

 

Do I think it is some kind of long term hold? Hell no!

 

Cardboard

 

 

I don’t know exactly where the anger is coming from, but if you are reading the same discussion I am, you will see the rudeness, name calling, personal attacks, and other school yard immaturity are not coming from the bitcoin bulls here.  Also I am starting to see the same thing else where as well.  Just a pattern I’ve been noticing and I’m pointing it out.

 

Then they fight you? Or are we still at the mocking stage? ;)

Posted

Angry about what Rkbabang?

 

Want to see real money making? Have a look at this chart from $0.20:

 

http://www.stockwatch.com/Quote/Detail.aspx?symbol=N&region=C

 

Do I think it is some kind of long term hold? Hell no!

 

Cardboard

 

 

I don’t know exactly where the anger is coming from, but if you are reading the same discussion I am, you will see the rudeness, name calling, personal attacks, and other school yard immaturity are not coming from the bitcoin bulls here.  Also I am starting to see the same thing else where as well.  Just a pattern I’ve been noticing and I’m pointing it out.

 

Then they fight you? Or are we still at the mocking stage? ;)

 

I think what I’ve been noticing is the beginnings of the move from mocking to fighting.

 

On the bright side, I was at a Bitcoin ATM with my son last night, it is in the entry of a restaurant, this family walks by us and the little girl of maybe 7 says “hey Dad their buying Bitcoin too”.

Posted

Angry about what Rkbabang?

 

Want to see real money making? Have a look at this chart from $0.20:

 

http://www.stockwatch.com/Quote/Detail.aspx?symbol=N&region=C

 

Do I think it is some kind of long term hold? Hell no!

 

Cardboard

 

 

I don’t know exactly where the anger is coming from, but if you are reading the same discussion I am, you will see the rudeness, name calling, personal attacks, and other school yard immaturity are not coming from the bitcoin bulls here.  Also I am starting to see the same thing else where as well.  Just a pattern I’ve been noticing and I’m pointing it out.

 

Then they fight you? Or are we still at the mocking stage? ;)

 

I think what I’ve been noticing is the beginnings of the move from mocking to fighting.

 

On the bright side, I was at a Bitcoin ATM with my son last night, it is in the entry of a restaurant, this family walks by us and the little girl of maybe 7 says “hey Dad their buying Bitcoin too”.

 

Sounds cool but I hope you explained to your son not to speak of such things in public. Stay safe.

Posted

Angry about what Rkbabang?

 

Want to see real money making? Have a look at this chart from $0.20:

 

http://www.stockwatch.com/Quote/Detail.aspx?symbol=N&region=C

 

Do I think it is some kind of long term hold? Hell no!

 

Cardboard

 

 

I don’t know exactly where the anger is coming from, but if you are reading the same discussion I am, you will see the rudeness, name calling, personal attacks, and other school yard immaturity are not coming from the bitcoin bulls here.  Also I am starting to see the same thing else where as well.  Just a pattern I’ve been noticing and I’m pointing it out.

 

I attacked that guy because he actively seeks to destroy the country because of some ridiculous and baseless desire for a "natural" economy. Why should I be friendly to someone like that? I also disclosed that I am bitcoin bull.

Posted

Came across a truly original way of doing this ....

1) Buy yourself a number of Bitcoin rigs, and a freezer chest. Drill a hole through the chest for the wiring. Seal the gaps with foam insulation. Rigs are faster and more efficient when they are cold, and freezer chests are explicitly designed to remove heat. 2) Install sufficient solar on your roof, and/or a windmill on the homestead. Power up a flywheel/battery storage rig. Draw down on the storage rig to power the Bitcoin rigs and freezer. For the truly gifted .. relocate the freezer compressor in your fresh air intake - as a heat exchange. 3) Claim the carbon credits on your 'green' electricity generation, certify via a block chain, and sell on an exchange. 4) Windy days welcome - they just crank up the RPM on the fly wheel.

 

The electricity is free, you're paid in carbon credits and bitcoin, and your only costs are depreciation and interest carry.

Repeat until rich!

 

SD

 

 

 

Posted

Better to set up some liquid cooling system, SD. The truly enlightened will harvest the heat from the radiator for some use.

  • 9 months later...
Posted

Today I found out in the Murray Stahl's conference call that they are involved in bitcoin mining and made a huge investment in crypto-mining. I found this really interesting that even Fidelity was mining bitcoin since 2015!

Posted

Today I found out in the Murray Stahl's conference call that they are involved in bitcoin mining and made a huge investment in crypto-mining. I found this really interesting that even Fidelity was mining bitcoin since 2015!

 

Yes that was big news at the time.  This is the latest with Fidelity:

 

Fidelity Launches Institutional Platform For Bitcoin And Ethereum

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldelcastillo/2018/10/15/fidelity-launches-institutional-platform-for-bitcoin-and-ethereum/#66982bb493c4

 

 

Now that we've had our bubble and our crash and the media hype machine has moved on to other things.  Just like the internet after 2000, crypto/blockchain will slowly just become a part of how a growing number of things are done.

 

 

  • 1 year later...
  • 3 months later...
Posted

Most people confuse safety with volatility(or lack there of), so right off the bat, no.

 

Anyone with any sort of vision or understanding of the productization of WS fads...sees(or saw) the setup. But its still just a speculation. Miller saw this before most, so he deserves some credit.

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