Kraven Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 But you are buying hamburgers today and you will buy hamburgers next year, and the year after, etc. Cheers! This is good advice that people should follow. During volatile times one thing I like to do is take a look around when I am out and about. People are still going out to eat. There are lines at Starbucks. The mall is packed by us and all the restaurants full on the weekend. The roads are jammed during rush hour. Life goes on and isn't dependent on the vicissitudes of the market. As Sanjeev says, this is the prelude to whatever comes next. At the end of the day, if this is the end of the world, or the banking/financial industry is going to tank or what have you, it really doesn't matter what stocks do. We will all be hoarding guns, ammo and canned goods anyway. At various times in his life Ben Graham spoke to the "what next?" issue in the context of volatile times. He often spoke and wrote about it during the cold war and the fear of nuclear attack. I'm paraphrasing, but he essentially said that it is impossible to plan for something like a nuclear attack and the stock market will be the least of our worries, so we might as well assume it won't happen and hope for the best. So you buy cheap and hope Mr. Market takes care of you like he has in the past. That's all you can really do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjstc Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Who makes Tums and Rolaids? Its starting to look like potential for a lot of growth there. I have a some at home, in the car, at work, in my gym bag... If this market keeps going like this I think I'll open an anti-acid stand on Wall Street and sell shares. Best cure for upset stomach...don't watch the markets. Go watch a movie or something if you aren't working today. S&P500 today is nearly the exact same level it was 13 years ago in 1998...13 years ago! It was overvalued then and it is undervalued today. All this volatility is simply preparation for the next bull market which is 1, 2, 5 years away...who knows. But you are buying hamburgers today and you will buy hamburgers next year, and the year after, etc. Cheers! But you are buying hamburgers today and you will buy hamburgers next year, and the year after, etc. Cheers! This is good advice that people should follow. During volatile times one thing I like to do is take a look around when I am out and about. People are still going out to eat. There are lines at Starbucks. The mall is packed by us and all the restaurants full on the weekend. The roads are jammed during rush hour. Life goes on and isn't dependent on the vicissitudes of the market. As Sanjeev says, this is the prelude to whatever comes next. At the end of the day, if this is the end of the world, or the banking/financial industry is going to tank or what have you, it really doesn't matter what stocks do. We will all be hoarding guns, ammo and canned goods anyway. At various times in his life Ben Graham spoke to the "what next?" issue in the context of volatile times. He often spoke and wrote about it during the cold war and the fear of nuclear attack. I'm paraphrasing, but he essentially said that it is impossible to plan for something like a nuclear attack and the stock market will be the least of our worries, so we might as well assume it won't happen and hope for the best. So you buy cheap and hope Mr. Market takes care of you like he has in the past. That's all you can really do. These two statements say it best.There are some great buys right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 "S&P500 today is nearly the exact same level it was 13 years ago in 1998...13 years ago! It was overvalued then and it is undervalued today." why would fairfax keep a substantial equity hedge (86% as of Q2) at S&P 500 1062.5 level if markets are undervalued today at S&P 500 1150 level? why does the Shiller PE/10 indicate a 25% overvaluation today versus historical average if the market is undervalued at current levels? not trying to be a pain, just wanting to learn........ regards rijk http://www.multpl.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 You know the markets have been volatile for the last three weeks, but it has not affected my life in any measurable way. My net worth on paper fluctuates, but the truth is the actual underlying investments I own are significantly cheaper than anything I've owned since the bottoms in 2008/2009. Many of those businesses are in better shape, have larger market shares, continue to generate cash, have less debt and better standards in their day-to-day operations. What am I going to worry about? If the world collapses tomorrow, the last thing I'm going to worry about is my portfolio or even my home. And if the world didn't collapse during the Great Depression, or in 1942 or during the Cold War, then I'm not worried about Europe's banking system having to pay for their mistakes. The U.S. banking system paid for their mess, now it's Europe's turn. At some point it will be China's turn. That's life and we all move on day by day. A young, terrific fund manager had lunch with me in Vancouver last week, and this business is a struggle for everyone. So of course there are some headwinds and challenges he's facing. I asked him one simple question: What's the worst thing that could happen to you tomorrow if things don't go well in the fund? Would his wife leave him...no. Would his children be ok...yes. Would his health deteriorate...no. It's the same question I asked Alnesh when he got divorced. It always feels like the end of the world, but the truth is the end of the world only comes once for all of us. After my father died, I eventually realized that you can always stumble and work your way through this world. Only the end is inevitable...everything else is manageable! This day in the markets too shall pass! ;D Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 "S&P500 today is nearly the exact same level it was 13 years ago in 1998...13 years ago! It was overvalued then and it is undervalued today." why would fairfax keep a substantial equity hedge (86% as of Q2) at S&P 500 1062.5 level if markets are undervalued today at S&P 500 1150 level? why does the Shiller PE/10 indicate a 25% overvaluation today versus historical average if the market is undervalued at current levels? not trying to be a pain, just wanting to learn........ regards rijk http://www.multpl.com/ Because Fairfax is leveraged 4 to 1 asset to equity and has over $2B in debt. They cannot afford a 25% drop in their portfolio. If that happened they would never be able to write business again! Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericd1 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I'm not finding as many bargains in my watch/buy list today as I did last week! Maybe tomorrow... :) Looks like we're not going be using any oil next year...how soon Mr. Market forgets... Let's see, lower gas prices means more disposable income for consumers...spending improves and the economy strengthens...What a concept! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 You know the markets have been volatile for the last three weeks, but it has not affected my life in any measurable way. My net worth on paper fluctuates, but the truth is the actual underlying investments I own are significantly cheaper than anything I've owned since the bottoms in 2008/2009. Many of those businesses are in better shape, have larger market shares, continue to generate cash, have less debt and better standards in their day-to-day operations. What am I going to worry about? If the world collapses tomorrow, the last thing I'm going to worry about is my portfolio or even my home. And if the world didn't collapse during the Great Depression, or in 1942 or during the Cold War, then I'm not worried about Europe's banking system having to pay for their mistakes. The U.S. banking system paid for their mess, now it's Europe's turn. At some point it will be China's turn. That's life and we all move on day by day. A young, terrific fund manager had lunch with me in Vancouver last week, and this business is a struggle for everyone. So of course there are some headwinds and challenges he's facing. I asked him one simple question: What's the worst thing that could happen to you tomorrow if things don't go well in the fund? Would his wife leave him...no. Would his children be ok...yes. Would his health deteriorate...no. It's the same question I asked Alnesh when he got divorced. It always feels like the end of the world, but the truth is the end of the world only comes once for all of us. After my father died, I eventually realized that you can always stumble and work your way through this world. Only the end is inevitable...everything else is manageable! This day in the markets too shall pass! ;D Cheers! Words to live by. Great post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 As they say, what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 You know the markets have been volatile for the last three weeks, but it has not affected my life in any measurable way. My net worth on paper fluctuates, but the truth is the actual underlying investments I own are significantly cheaper than anything I've owned since the bottoms in 2008/2009. Many of those businesses are in better shape, have larger market shares, continue to generate cash, have less debt and better standards in their day-to-day operations. What am I going to worry about? If the world collapses tomorrow, the last thing I'm going to worry about is my portfolio or even my home. And if the world didn't collapse during the Great Depression, or in 1942 or during the Cold War, then I'm not worried about Europe's banking system having to pay for their mistakes. The U.S. banking system paid for their mess, now it's Europe's turn. At some point it will be China's turn. That's life and we all move on day by day. A young, terrific fund manager had lunch with me in Vancouver last week, and this business is a struggle for everyone. So of course there are some headwinds and challenges he's facing. I asked him one simple question: What's the worst thing that could happen to you tomorrow if things don't go well in the fund? Would his wife leave him...no. Would his children be ok...yes. Would his health deteriorate...no. It's the same question I asked Alnesh when he got divorced. It always feels like the end of the world, but the truth is the end of the world only comes once for all of us. After my father died, I eventually realized that you can always stumble and work your way through this world. Only the end is inevitable...everything else is manageable! This day in the markets too shall pass! ;D Cheers! Wow. Great post indeed! I don't feel worried at all either. If we drop 30% that will just mean I'll have to wait a bit longer for intrinsic value to be reached. Actually I was worried I would be scared when markets dropped and I had little/no cash left. Turns out I am just sad I don't have any more to spend. I'm not finding as many bargains in my watch/buy list today as I did last week! Maybe tomorrow... :) Some things go up, some go down even more. If something really was a bargain last week, why wouldn't it be a bargain anymore today because it went up 5%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libor.plus1 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 As they say, what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. ... or leaves you crippled and in a vegetated state... There's still a lot to sort through. I doubt theres gonna be a rally any time soon. This is probably just the beginning of the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hester Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I've personally spent the day in violent panic. If the Dow can fall 400 points in one day, what's to stop it from falling 4000 the next day? Checkmate. Long Gold, T-bills, GNI, and dinosaur bones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 I've personally spent the day in violent panic. If the Dow can fall 400 points in one day, what's to stop it from falling 4000 the next day? Checkmate. Long Gold, T-bills, GNI, and dinosaur bones. Hester, you remind me of the times when I was in the chess club in elementary school, and we'd all be yelling checkmate, even though it wasn't really checkmate. The other shoe to your above comment is if the Dow can rise 400 points in a day, what's to stop it from rising 4000 the next day? Now, checkmate! Sold all my gold, T-bills, long financials and I pick my teeth with dinosaur bones! ;D Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 The machines sure are fearful these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opihiman2 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 You know the markets have been volatile for the last three weeks, but it has not affected my life in any measurable way. My net worth on paper fluctuates, but the truth is the actual underlying investments I own are significantly cheaper than anything I've owned since the bottoms in 2008/2009. Many of those businesses are in better shape, have larger market shares, continue to generate cash, have less debt and better standards in their day-to-day operations. What am I going to worry about? If the world collapses tomorrow, the last thing I'm going to worry about is my portfolio or even my home. And if the world didn't collapse during the Great Depression, or in 1942 or during the Cold War, then I'm not worried about Europe's banking system having to pay for their mistakes. The U.S. banking system paid for their mess, now it's Europe's turn. At some point it will be China's turn. That's life and we all move on day by day. A young, terrific fund manager had lunch with me in Vancouver last week, and this business is a struggle for everyone. So of course there are some headwinds and challenges he's facing. I asked him one simple question: What's the worst thing that could happen to you tomorrow if things don't go well in the fund? Would his wife leave him...no. Would his children be ok...yes. Would his health deteriorate...no. It's the same question I asked Alnesh when he got divorced. It always feels like the end of the world, but the truth is the end of the world only comes once for all of us. After my father died, I eventually realized that you can always stumble and work your way through this world. Only the end is inevitable...everything else is manageable! This day in the markets too shall pass! ;D Cheers! Some poignant and wise words. Loved it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest misterstockwell Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I'm happy to have mountains of cash. Actually, it felt really good to have a client call and say "thanks for having so much cash." I think we have much more pain to come. I am not even putting silly bids in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 While I agree it feels like it can get much worse, it always feels that way in a market correction. In 2008 when we crossed S&P 700 I figured S&P 350 was right around the corner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Every share sold was bought, but the media will still tell you that money is fleeing the stock market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santayana Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 That doesn't mean that everyone who wanted to sell was able to find a buyer though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubuy2wron Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I've personally spent the day in violent panic. If the Dow can fall 400 points in one day, what's to stop it from falling 4000 the next day? Checkmate. Long Gold, T-bills, GNI, and dinosaur bones. Hester you're kidding right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvel46 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Parsad, thank you for sharing your wisdom! So many wise words! I'm fond of, "One piece of advice...enjoy the process, don't kill yourself, don't be too hard on yourself and stick to your principles." Much gratitude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I've personally spent the day in violent panic. If the Dow can fall 400 points in one day, what's to stop it from falling 4000 the next day? Checkmate. Long Gold, T-bills, GNI, and dinosaur bones. Hester you're kidding right? Maybe he has long term plans and will wait for the dinosaur bones to turn into fossil fuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hester Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I've personally spent the day in violent panic. If the Dow can fall 400 points in one day, what's to stop it from falling 4000 the next day? Checkmate. Long Gold, T-bills, GNI, and dinosaur bones. Hester you're kidding right? Maybe he has long term plans and will wait for the dinosaur bones to turn into fossil fuel. Yes I'm kidding, and that's really funny. Talk about a long term investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It's days like this that revive my love for investing. I barely red an annual report since january but now I can't seem to find companies that interest me :) BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I've personally spent the day in violent panic. If the Dow can fall 400 points in one day, what's to stop it from falling 4000 the next day? Checkmate. Long Gold, T-bills, GNI, and dinosaur bones. Hester you're kidding right? Maybe he has long term plans and will wait for the dinosaur bones to turn into fossil fuel. Coprolites anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericd1 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 WSJ - Live Asian Blog comment...Interesting commentary on the looming recession http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/08/18/live-blog-asian-markets/?mod=WSJ_markets_article_liveupdate 10:31 pm US Oil Data Show No Sign Of Recession - Goldman Sachs by Gurdeep Singh Add a Comment Crude is under pressure after the Philly Fed Index dropped to -30.7 in August, a level typically associated with a U.S. recession, Goldman Sachs analysts say in a note. "However while the Philly Fed Survey certainly raises the risk of recession, and the downside risks to our forecasts, the oil market data continues to show no sign of recession." They note U.S. oil demand over the past three weeks has risen to the highest levels for this time of year since before the financial crisis. The supply-demand balance remains firm despite being more than halfway through the 30 million-barrel U.S. strategic reserve release; global oil markets could face extremely tight fundamentals in 2H11 if a recession is avoided; market data continue to suggest that the trajectory for crude prices is higher into 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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