backtothebeach Posted April 30 Posted April 30 "During the quarter we purchased 374,883 subordinate voting shares for cancellation for cash consideration of $631.3 million, or $1,684 per share." Nice pace and average cost!
mananainvesting Posted April 30 Posted April 30 Below is the Q1 Estimates I see on Tikr. Not sure where Seeking alpha is pulling the info (Above Post)
Txvestor Posted April 30 Posted April 30 (edited) 48 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: It looks like Fairfax has extended duration to 3 years. The company's fixed income portfolio has an average term to maturity of 3 years and continues to be conservatively positioned with 76% of the fixed income portfolio invested in U.S. treasury and other government bonds, 13% in high quality corporate bonds, primarily short-dated, and 11% in first mortgage loans. Yeah they added mostly treasuries which went from about 40 to 42B and pushed out the duration to about ~3yrs from~ 2.5yrs. 1st lein mortgages are at 11%, I imagine that % will trend higher with the KW acquisition in years to come. Edited April 30 by Txvestor
SafetyinNumbers Posted April 30 Posted April 30 3 minutes ago, Txvestor said: Yeah they added mostly treasuries which went from about 40 to 42B and pushed out the duration to about ~3yrs from~ 2.5yrs. I think the average maturity was already 3 years or better. Duration is always shorter than average maturity because of coupons.
Viking Posted April 30 Posted April 30 (edited) Fairfax delivered another quarter of solid results in Q1 Net earnings were $695.7M, or $31/diluted share. Solid. Insurance Top line growth (NPW) of 4.2% - demonstrate continued discipline with insurance CR of 94.1% - low cat losses and minimal PY reserve development Underwriting profit of $381.6M - getting paid handsomely to hold ~$38.5B float Investments Interest and dividend income of $662M - solid. Share of profit of associates of $371.5M - very good (increase driven by Waterous EFIII) Non-ins consol co operating income of $36.9M (one-time costs of AGT IPO was a drag) Investment gains (losses) were a loss of $385.9M - as expected Fixed income: loss of $363.9M (due to higher interest rates) Mark to market equities: loss of $81.8M (due to weakness in equity markets) Excess of FV over CV: increased to $3.9B, or $173/share pre-tax - driven by Poseidon sale Was $3.1B at Dec 31, 2025; increase in Q1 of $800M, or $36/share pre-tax ($29 after tax) This is not captured in BV. Represents future earnings. Fairfax grew shareholder value in Q1 by $31 (EPS) + $29 (FV over CV) = $60/share Capital allocation/shareholder return Paid annual dividend of $15/share, or $329.1M Bought back and retired 374,883 shares, for $631.3M, or $1,684/share Effective shares outstanding were 20.62M at Mar 31, 2026 (was $20.86M at Dec 31, 2025) BVPS: $1,250 (was $1,260 at Dec 31, 2025) Decline in BVPS was due to dividend, share repurchases (above BV) and currency movements Very strong set-up for Q2: Transactions expected to close in Q2: Poseidon sale: proceeds $1.9B, pre-tax gain of $837M Eurolife sale: proceeds $935M, pre-tax gain of $350M Total pre-tax gain: $1.2B, or ~$53/share Fairfax continues to hit the ball down the middle of the fairway. Not flashy. Wins championships. Edited April 30 by Viking
Hoodlum Posted May 1 Posted May 1 3 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: I think the average maturity was already 3 years or better. Duration is always shorter than average maturity because of coupons. Fairfax added 3-5 year bonds
Viking Posted May 1 Posted May 1 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: Fairfax added 3-5 year bonds @Hoodlum, yes, Fairfax was active with bonds in the 3 to 5 year bucket. I am happy they have used the increase in interest rates as an opportunity to extend duration. The other important piece is how conservative they are positioned - 76% of the portfolio is government. Fairfax is positioned much more conservatively than most P/C insurance peers. From the press release: "The company's fixed income portfolio has an average term to maturity of 3 years and continues to be conservatively positioned with 76% of the fixed income portfolio invested in U.S. treasury and other government bonds, 13% in high quality corporate bonds, primarily short-dated, and 11% in first mortgage loans." From the Q1 quarterly report: "The increase in the company's holdings of bonds due after 3 years through 5 years was primarily due to net purchases of U.S. treasury bonds of $3,612.3, other government bonds of $824.4 and Canadian government bonds of $635.0." This is a good example of how Fairfax is opportunistic. And sometimes able to earn a little extra with its fixed income portfolio. Being short duration in a rising interest rate environment: Results in a lower investment loss. Allows for duration to be extended, locking in higher interest income for longer. Edited May 1 by Viking
Hoodlum Posted May 1 Posted May 1 The Insurance companies are not impacted by the ware in Iran. "The company has performed assessments of the potential direct impacts of this military conflict on its operations and concluded that there are no significant impacts to its financial condition at this time as its insurance policies generally exclude acts of war."
MungerWunger Posted May 1 Posted May 1 3 hours ago, Viking said: Fairfax delivered another quarter of solid results in Q1 Net earnings were $695.7M, or $31/diluted share. Solid. Insurance Top line growth (NPW) of 4.2% - demonstrate continued discipline with insurance CR of 94.1% - low cat losses and minimal PY reserve development Underwriting profit of $381.6M - getting paid handsomely to hold ~$38.5B float Investments Interest and dividend income of $662M - solid. Share of profit of associates of $371.5M - very good (increase driven by Waterous EFIII) Non-ins consol co operating income of $36.9M (one-time costs of AGT IPO was a drag) Investment gains (losses) were a loss of $385.9M - as expected Fixed income: loss of $363.9M (due to higher interest rates) Mark to market equities: loss of $81.8M (due to weakness in equity markets) Excess of FV over CV: increased to $3.9B, or $173/share pre-tax - driven by Poseidon sale Was $3.1B at Dec 31, 2025; increase in Q1 of $800M, or $36/share pre-tax ($29 after tax) This is not captured in BV. Represents future earnings. Fairfax grew shareholder value in Q1 by $31 (EPS) + $29 (FV over CV) = $60/share Capital allocation/shareholder return Paid annual dividend of $15/share, or $329.1M Bought back and retired 374,883 shares, for $631.3M, or $1,684/share Effective shares outstanding were 20.62M at Mar 31, 2026 (was $20.86M at Dec 31, 2025) BVPS: $1,250 (was $1,260 at Dec 31, 2025) Decline in BVPS was due to dividend, share repurchases (above BV) and currency movements Very strong set-up for Q2: Transactions expected to close in Q2: Poseidon sale: proceeds $1.9B, pre-tax gain of $837M Eurolife sale: proceeds $935M, pre-tax gain of $350M Total pre-tax gain: $1.2B, or ~$53/share Fairfax continues to hit the ball down the middle of the fairway. Not flashy. Wins championships. this is pretty close to what you expected
treasurehunt Posted May 1 Posted May 1 5 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: I think the average maturity was already 3 years or better. Duration is always shorter than average maturity because of coupons. According to the AGM presentation, duration was 2.1 years as of Dec 31, 2025. So average maturity was probably less than 3 years, even accounting for duration being less than average maturity, right?
treasurehunt Posted May 1 Posted May 1 Looking at Fairfax's quarterly filings, it seems average diluted shares increased by about 4% from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026. Why? I don't recall a transaction where Fairfax issued shares. Or am I missing something obvious? Net Earnings to Shareholders Diluted EPS Average Diluted Shares Q1 2026 $695.70 $31.11 22.36 Q4 2025 $1,238.30 $57.57 21.51 Q3 2025 $1,151.70 $52.04 22.13
Viking Posted May 1 Posted May 1 (edited) 7 hours ago, Crip1 said: That's pretty impressive, @Viking. -Crip @Crip1, I was lucky with my forecast for Q1. Having said that, my experience with forecasting (at Kraft and Saputo) was if you put enough thought into the key inputs, you normally ended up with a fairly accurate forecast (final number). Each of the inputs will be off - but some will be favourable and some with be unfavourable and the differences will often balance out in the end. If you go through my individual forecasts (the build), there was a lot of variability. Anyways, the exercise really helped me understand what Fairfax actually reported much better (than if I had done nothing). The fact the end number was close was icing on the cake. Edited May 1 by Viking
Maverick47 Posted May 1 Posted May 1 8 hours ago, treasurehunt said: Looking at Fairfax's quarterly filings, it seems average diluted shares increased by about 4% from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026. Why? I don't recall a transaction where Fairfax issued shares. Or am I missing something obvious? Net Earnings to Shareholders Diluted EPS Average Diluted Shares Q1 2026 $695.70 $31.11 22.36 Q4 2025 $1,238.30 $57.57 21.51 Q3 2025 $1,151.70 $52.04 22.13 Note 17 in the annual report indicates that this apparent difference is likely explained by an increase in the number of shares expected to be issued under share based compensation awards. If I understand this correctly, these are shares that on a rolling basis are awarded to certain employees with a five year vesting period. As the company grows and as employees perform well, it would make sense to me that performance based share grants to them, which will be earned over the coming five years, would also grow over time. We can see each year when shares are actually vested and issued out of Treasury shares for this purpose. I would assume that the company is opportunistic in purchasing shares on the open market to add to the Treasury shares. In any given year there can be a mismatch, meaning that the change in the number of shares promised to employees may be different from the change in the number of shares that the company holds in the Treasury. Most likely, quarter 1 of each year would be when changes in shares granted to employees which will vest over the next five years would be the greatest. I think that is what we’re seeing here.
Hoodlum Posted May 1 Posted May 1 I bought a few extra share too quickly this morning at 2300. I should have known better. LOL.
hardcorevalue Posted May 1 Author Posted May 1 On 4/29/2026 at 11:27 PM, hardcorevalue said: Yes I'm definitely in the camp that FFH ends down strongly Friday. I feel it in my bones. I honestly can't remember many quarters were the stock ever moved strongly higher! I should be a swing trader... $FFH under $2200 again.
Jaygo Posted May 1 Posted May 1 1 minute ago, hardcorevalue said: I should be a swing trader... $FFH under $2200 again. Lol its so tempting isn't it.. I thought about dumping in my tax free yesterday and then got distracted, could have saved a quick 15k but with my luck it would have gone up not down.
Junior R Posted May 1 Posted May 1 added here ...we all know they going buy more shares so this is not a bad thing long run
NnnnotSoSmart Posted May 1 Posted May 1 16 hours ago, mananainvesting said: Tomorrow might be a buying opportunity! (Not advice) 1
djokovic1 Posted May 1 Posted May 1 Well the board called the price action and Viking the EPS We have it all covered. 1
Jaygo Posted May 1 Posted May 1 Well I didn't sell yesterday, and didn't fill my stink bid of 1630 this morning so I guess its back to the salt mines for old Jaygo.
gfp Posted May 1 Posted May 1 33 minutes ago, Jaygo said: Well I didn't sell yesterday, and didn't fill my stink bid of 1630 this morning so I guess its back to the salt mines for old Jaygo. Why didn't your 1630 get filled? I got filled at 1624
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