dartmonkey Posted January 12 Posted January 12 22 minutes ago, Crip1 said: Stated differently, there are much better ways to get a quick 0.8% in the short term. I think you're probably not suggesting this is a real strategy, but in case you are, there's no quick 0.8% free lunch. If you buy FFH or any other stock just before it pays out a dividend, you will have that 0.8% dividend in your investment account, but you also have a stock that is now worth 0.8% less and probably has an ex-dividend share price that is about 0.8% less. Since share prices fluctuate anyways, dividend or not, the correlation with dividend payment and commensurate stock price drop is not 100%, but on average that will be the amount, as it should logically be.
Crip1 Posted January 12 Posted January 12 26 minutes ago, gfp said: it was a joke. Obviously didn't land Mea culpa...I should have known. -Crip
SafetyinNumbers Posted January 12 Posted January 12 30 minutes ago, Txvestor said: Are we sure these aren't block buybacks? Pretty sure. Generally buybacks aren’t active in the first 15 minutes and last 15 minutes of trading. Also, buybacks can’t be done on an uptick. It might have to do with trades related to S&P/TSX 60 futures.
hardcorevalue Posted January 12 Author Posted January 12 I would honestly lean toward the idea that these random relatively big opens are just US investors reading about the company for the first and putting in market orders.
Txvestor Posted January 12 Posted January 12 Interesting. I wonder who are the sellers. Those have to be institutions at those $100M type of levels.
Santayana Posted January 13 Posted January 13 On 1/11/2026 at 1:52 PM, Marco Van Basten said: I am not sure that I agree with you. There is no doubt in my mind that Mr Watsa and the team that he has assembled are exceptional. In my opinion, Fairfax is a decent business run by an exceptional team, why do you think that the business is exceptional? Ferrari is an exceptional business, so is Moody's, but insurance is ultimately a commodity, no? Unless you have an all star team which is what Fairfax seems to have. This seems to be how Brett Horn looks at Fairfax, because insurance is a commodity it’s a “no moat” company and thus overvalued. Morningstar has their model and exceptional management doesn’t fit in it anywhere.
Marco Van Basten Posted January 13 Posted January 13 59 minutes ago, Santayana said: This seems to be how Brett Horn looks at Fairfax, because insurance is a commodity it’s a “no moat” company and thus overvalued. Morningstar has their model and exceptional management doesn’t fit in it anywhere. I don't know what Mr Horn is thinking. He seems to assign zero value to managerial skill. I assign incredible value to Mr Watsa and his team, this is why I bought the stock a year ago at half of today's price and continue to own it.
Hoodlum Posted January 13 Posted January 13 22 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: Pretty sure. Generally buybacks aren’t active in the first 15 minutes and last 15 minutes of trading. Also, buybacks can’t be done on an uptick. It might have to do with trades related to S&P/TSX 60 futures. it is interesting that it is exactly 50k shares at the open, with another 50k shares this morning.
Duke In Shadows Posted January 13 Posted January 13 16 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said: I don't know what Mr Horn is thinking. He seems to assign zero value to managerial skill. I assign incredible value to Mr Watsa and his team, this is why I bought the stock a year ago at half of today's price and continue to own it. that's the beautiful thing. it's what makes a market.....
Hoodlum Posted January 13 Posted January 13 Volume during the day has been very low outside of the trades at the open/close. Another 90k at the close today. Maybe this will be come a regular occurrence with the index addition.
gfp Posted January 13 Posted January 13 tomorrow is the last day to get the dividend. or at least that's what's scribbled on my calendar
Spooky Posted January 13 Posted January 13 1 minute ago, gfp said: tomorrow is the last day to get the dividend. or at least that's what's scribbled on my calendar I added some shares last week for this very reason.
SafetyinNumbers Posted January 13 Posted January 13 26 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: Volume during the day has been very low outside of the trades at the open/close. Another 90k at the close today. Maybe this will be come a regular occurrence with the index addition. A benefit of higher volume is that it will increase how much FFH can buy daily on the NCIB when it comes up for renewal.
Hoodlum Posted January 13 Posted January 13 15 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said: A benefit of higher volume is that it will increase how much FFH can buy daily on the NCIB when it comes up for renewal. I wonder if the increased volume will allow for options to become available. Our Short "friends" would appreciate that.
SafetyinNumbers Posted January 13 Posted January 13 50 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: I wonder if the increased volume will allow for options to become available. Our Short "friends" would appreciate that. I would appreciate it too. Probably mostly selling puts and buying LEAPs.
Hoodlum Posted January 14 Posted January 14 The Doctor’s golfing buddy’s must have joined in at the open today with 190k shares traded. I presume this will subside post-dividend later this week.
SafetyinNumbers Posted January 14 Posted January 14 1 hour ago, Hoodlum said: The Doctor’s golfing buddy’s must have joined in at the open today with 190k shares traded. I presume this will subside post-dividend later this week. I think this mostly has to do with banks rolling the TRS. Volume usually spikes in mid January.
Hoodlum Posted January 14 Posted January 14 18 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said: I think this mostly has to do with banks rolling the TRS. Volume usually spikes in mid January. It will be interesting to see if Fairfax bought back some of the TRS share in Q4. The last time this was done was in Q4 2024.
SafetyinNumbers Posted January 14 Posted January 14 Just now, Hoodlum said: It will be interesting to see if Fairfax bought back some of the TRS share in Q4. The last time this was done was in Q4 2024. I think we already know they didn’t.
Hoodlum Posted January 15 Posted January 15 The risk of another California fire like last January has been measured by Gallagher Re. https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/reinsurance/news/breaking-news/california-wildfires-as-1in35year-event-for-reinsurers--gallagher-re-562047.aspx Gallagher Re benchmarked the total insured value exposed to the January 2025 Los Angeles fire perimeter as a 1-in-35-year event. The broker said this establishes a new baseline reflecting the current state of climate and exposure conditions.
gfp Posted January 15 Posted January 15 Did Fairfax stock go UP on the ex-dividend day or am I misreading the day? Yesterday you got $15 and today you don't?
Santayana Posted January 15 Posted January 15 I think today is the ex-date, so if you held at the open today you get it.
Hoodlum Posted January 15 Posted January 15 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Santayana said: I think today is the ex-date, so if you held at the open today you get it. Is it not based on settlement date? I thought you would need to purchase before today to ensure it gets settled today. Edited January 15 by Hoodlum
LC Posted January 15 Posted January 15 The ex-date is when the stock trades without the dividend. So on the ex-date you'd expect the stock to drop by the dividend amount (all else equal).
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