valueventures Posted December 31, 2025 Posted December 31, 2025 2 hours ago, Jan said: Portfolio 2026: In 2025 I started investing. I sold trading until now: - for gains: LDO, BABA (trimmed), Eurobank, Googl, FFH (trimmed), IBKR, RHM (trimmed and then loaded back up in the dip) - for a loss: WLN (over 50% loss, ugh, still glad I sold) Total money weighted return YTD in USD is up 22%. Leverage came down from 2.0 in september to 1.77 now. I learned so much in this year, also thanks to this board. Intention for 2026: Reduce leverage to 1.2 - 1.5 and simplify Portfolio for peace of mind by selling opportunistically: - RHM - bought only for trading - JD - low margins and reduce china exposure a bit (PDD seems a better business) - GRG and BRO - small positions in businesses I don't really know - ACGL - cat risk profile is too similar to FFH (only trimming) - general trimming as stocks appreciate Last time I shared: Nice portfolio! I own MKO. Curious what your view / thesis is on FOM and AEM.
Jan Posted December 31, 2025 Posted December 31, 2025 5 minutes ago, valueventures said: Nice portfolio! I own MKO. Curious what your view / thesis is on FOM and AEM. Thanks. I read about FOM here on the forum and saw an interview with the CEO on youtube, thesis: soon starting production with good free cash flow and copper prices may be rising in coming years.. AEM: quality diversified gold mining company, I am betting on gold prices keeping high or rising in coming years, its more of a gut feeling and also a hedge, but I will close out this trade at some point earlier than MKO, as it would crash hard on falling gold prices which would happen at some point. I liked this Interview to give me conviction in gold and AEM:
Luke Posted December 31, 2025 Posted December 31, 2025 (edited) Current Portfolio allocation made with Gemini copied directly from IB: EDIT: Aaand Gemini fucked up haha! 9PDA is also PDD and not alibaba lol! Edited December 31, 2025 by Luke
Value418 Posted December 31, 2025 Posted December 31, 2025 (edited) 16 hours ago, KJP said: Based on your allocation, I assume you're still quite bullish on SRBK. Do you think it's sold within a year or so of the 3-year anniversary? If so, at what multiple to TBV? I sold out a few months back and moved the proceeds to PFSB because of its better profitability, bigger discount to book, and buyback, but I think Orbach knows what he's doing, so I still have an eye on SRBK. Yes, I am still fairly bullish on SRBK. If you figure they are still at a ~25% discount to tangible book value and the thrift takeouts average maybe a 30% premium to tangible book, they look interesting if they somehow swung the deal on Day 1 of eligibility (which would be in September). However, in some ways I am okay if they do not sell Day 1. They fulfilled their last 10% share repurchase authorization in less than a year, have a strong start on their second 10% authorization and plenty of excess still to go through a few more if they want to. While they are starting to loan a little more, these deals never stand out on their profitability in the early days. The nature of the thrift conversion process makes them inherently far over-capitalized while issuing shares at a fixed/arbitary share price ($10/share). So, even if profitability stays muted, they are buying back a lot of stock at a significant discount to tangible book, which is accretive to TVBS (~7%/year at the current run-rate), so you get another lever to value creation while you wait. Insiders are well-invested, come from a PE background and are still buying shares for themselves. I do think it would be an attractive target at some point. I started as a bank analyst and you learn (often the hard way) that banks are only as good as their footprint at the end of the day. While these guys aren't in Texas, they are in a decent part of NJ that would be an interesting add-on for a number of players out there. Where I get frustrated on these deals, and smaller banks in general, is when they talk about a plan towards improving profitability and capital allocation, but do not follow through (i.e. untouched buyback authorizations, etc.) or they have a terrible footprint that makes them feel like they are pushing a rock uphill. So far, I have not had those concerns with these guys and they seem surprisingly adept compared to most management teams at this size bank. Edited December 31, 2025 by Value418
KJP Posted December 31, 2025 Posted December 31, 2025 23 minutes ago, Value418 said: Yes, I am still fairly bullish on SRBK. If you figure they are still at a ~25% discount to tangible book value and the thrift takeouts average maybe a 30% premium to tangible book, they look interesting if they somehow swung the deal on Day 1 of eligibility (which would be in September). However, in some ways I am okay if they do not sell Day 1. They fulfilled their last 10% share repurchase authorization in less than a year, have a strong start on their second 10% authorization and plenty of excess still to go through a few more if they want to. While they are starting to loan a little more, these deals never stand out on their profitability in the early days. The nature of the thrift conversion process makes them inherently far over-capitalized while issuing shares at a fixed/arbitary share price ($10/share). So, even if profitability stays muted, they are buying back a lot of stock at a significant discount to tangible book, which is accretive to TVBS (~7%/year at the current run-rate), so you get another lever to value creation while you wait. Insiders are well-invested, come from a PE background and are still buying shares for themselves. I do think it would be an attractive target at some point. I started as a bank analyst and you learn (often the hard way) that banks are only as good as their footprint at the end of the day. While these guys aren't in Texas, they are in a decent part of NJ that would be an interesting add-on for a number of players out there. Where I get frustrated on these deals, and smaller banks in general, is when they talk about a plan towards improving profitability and capital allocation, but do not follow through (i.e. untouched buyback authorizations, etc.) or they have a terrible footprint that makes them feel like they are pushing a rock uphill. So far, I have not had those concerns with these guys and they seem surprisingly adept compared to most management teams at this size bank. I agree on management, but I'm skeptical about the size of the current discount to book (and thus the degree of accretiveness of current buybacks). I assume your TBV calculation does not adjust for current market value of HTM securities or the market value of the loan book. The HTM adjustment would be about $20 million and the yield on the loan book is ~5.4% so not great either. If that deserves a bit of a discount too, that along with an HTM adjustment would eat up much of the discount to TBV. I confess, though, that I'm not sure how an acquiring bank would look at those issues, though I'd be surprised if they didn't have at least some impact on the TBV multiple paid. All that being said, I have my eye on it and if the recent pullback keeps going or if it drifts along at the current price as we get closer to the 3-year anniversary I may buy back in.
Eng12345 Posted December 31, 2025 Posted December 31, 2025 (edited) I think constellation consortium will do well. CSU, TOI, LUMN are probably my best ideas right now. MGM I'm hopeful on but would rather they just keep buying back shares and let '27 explode. And I'm not sure I need to re emphasize my conviction on AECON (ARE.TO) Edited December 31, 2025 by Eng12345
sholland Posted December 31, 2025 Posted December 31, 2025 I may trim Chapters Group in the near future.
pine Posted January 4 Posted January 4 On 12/26/2025 at 11:00 PM, anshulp said: I always enjoy reading through these. My top three have remained pretty much the same for the past few years but full port minus a couple tracking positions are: Sygnity SA Fairfax GE Aerospace Next Nav Innovative Aerosystems Firan Technology Taiwan Semiconductor Bel Fuse Strathcona Old Republic Apollo KKR WR Berkley FG Annuities Mako Mining EL Financial I also want to build a quasi long term index position in late 2026 with three components: a direct SP index (likely via Frec), EL Financial and CET. I noticed you own FG Annuities and I would appreciate any thoughts you might have about it. Recently I got a few shares spun out from FNF and am thinking about buying some more to make a small position out of what at the moment is an annoyingly tiny ammount. It appears to be cheap. Thanks in advance!
anshulp Posted January 4 Posted January 4 9 hours ago, pine said: I noticed you own FG Annuities and I would appreciate any thoughts you might have about it. Recently I got a few shares spun out from FNF and am thinking about buying some more to make a small position out of what at the moment is an annoyingly tiny ammount. It appears to be cheap. Thanks in advance! It is a good company + cheap. I believe it will get taken private soon. I have owned it in various sizes since Summer 2023. The stock has gone from 0.5x bv to 1.0, to 0.7x ish now. I think what’s important to understand is that this is the last large publicly traded fixed annuities firm remaining. Makes it super valuable for the asset managers. Wrote about it twice: https://alankritcapital.substack.com/p/f-and-g-annuities-and-life-fg https://alankritcapital.substack.com/p/first-athene-then-ael-now-fg
pine Posted January 4 Posted January 4 That is very helpful. Thank you. I enjoyed reading your two articles which were most informative.
anshulp Posted January 4 Posted January 4 2 hours ago, pine said: That is very helpful. Thank you. I enjoyed reading your two articles which were most informative. Thanks, kind of you to say that!
villainx Posted January 5 Posted January 5 6 hours ago, anshulp said: I believe it will get taken private soon. Why wouldn't one of the asset manager just buy it from FNF prior? Why would it need a spin off? Tax reasons?
Spekulatius Posted January 5 Posted January 5 (edited) 17 minutes ago, villainx said: Why wouldn't one of the asset manager just buy it from FNF prior? Why would it need a spin off? Tax reasons? I think taxes are the most likely reason. I do think FG looks quite interesting. I also own some FNF and got a few annoying FG shares. Edited January 5 by Spekulatius
villainx Posted January 5 Posted January 5 On 12/21/2025 at 11:44 AM, 73 Reds said: 5 legacy holdings haven't changed (BRK, MSFT, HD, WMT and AAPL). THe HD thread is relatively quiet. You still like HD?
73 Reds Posted January 5 Posted January 5 7 hours ago, villainx said: THe HD thread is relatively quiet. You still like HD? Probably a forever holding.
anshulp Posted January 5 Posted January 5 12 hours ago, villainx said: Why wouldn't one of the asset manager just buy it from FNF prior? Why would it need a spin off? Tax reasons? Yeah taxes mainly, plus just has to be easier without a controlling shareholder at that level.
This2ShallPass Posted January 6 Posted January 6 Fairfax 31% TSMC 10% Prosus / Tencent 8% IAC / MGM 8% (includes notional value of MGM'27 LEAPs) Growth stocks 8% (Reddit, Upstart and some tracker positions. Bump this to 10%) JOE / FAIRX 5% (FAIRX as I can only buy MFs in one account) Fairfax India 5% Eurobank 4% (likely bumping) BIDU 3% Nintendo 2.5% Pabrai Wagons 2.5% Event driven 3% (Fannie / Freddie common and preferreds) Cash 9% Options 1.5% (Primarily MGM / INTC) Rollover additional 15% cash to my IRAs this year, so will add proportionately to the positions in the next couple of weeks.
Luke Posted January 6 Posted January 6 10 hours ago, This2ShallPass said: Fairfax 31% TSMC 10% Prosus / Tencent 8% IAC / MGM 8% (includes notional value of MGM'27 LEAPs) Growth stocks 8% (Reddit, Upstart and some tracker positions. Bump this to 10%) JOE / FAIRX 5% (FAIRX as I can only buy MFs in one account) Fairfax India 5% Eurobank 4% (likely bumping) BIDU 3% Nintendo 2.5% Pabrai Wagons 2.5% Event driven 3% (Fannie / Freddie common and preferreds) Cash 9% Options 1.5% (Primarily MGM / INTC) Rollover additional 15% cash to my IRAs this year, so will add proportionately to the positions in the next couple of weeks. Nice one
pine Posted January 9 Posted January 9 I recently joined this site because of the thread on insurance brokers, which I am interested in but have not yet got around to buying. My port is nothing special and frankly a bit of a mess. There are a few older and larger positions and the rest are from the last five years. Cash came in from a real estate sale in 2021 and I thought the US markets were expensive so it mostly went into value names, still have about 5% to invest. Berkshire Hathaway 28% Bank of America 14% State Street 9% Dollar General 4% Imperial Metals 3% Canadian Pacific 2% OSB PLC 2% Energy Transfer LP 2% Asbury Automotive 2% McDonalds 2% Equinox Gold 1.5% Northrop Grumman 1.5% Fid Nat Financial 1.5% Burford Cap 1.5% Newmont 1.5% Brit Am Tobaco 1.5% Millicom 1.5% Qualitas Contoladores 1.5% Nintendo 1.5% BMW 1% CK Hutchinson 1% Royalty Pharma 1% Imperial Brands 1% Cenovus 1% Currys PLC 1% Petrobras A 1% Stellantis 1% Total 1% F&G 1% Ambev less than 1% Admiral PLC less than 1% KT Corp less than 1% Energean PLC less than 1% Alphamin Resources less than 1 % Rubis less than % Harbour Energy PLC less than 1% Kosmos Energy less than 1 %
Longnose Posted January 9 Posted January 9 6 hours ago, pine said: I recently joined this site because of the thread on insurance brokers, which I am interested in but have not yet got around to buying. Welcome !
John Hjorth Posted January 9 Posted January 9 6 hours ago, pine said: I recently joined this site ... Welcome to CofB&F, @pine!
villainx Posted January 9 Posted January 9 7 hours ago, pine said: My port is nothing special and frankly a bit of a mess. This comment resembles my portfolio! I have more less than 1% position though.
serkapon Posted January 10 Posted January 10 Hi all, I'm a new member. This is my portfolio. Used to be a dividend growth investor but I "grew out" of that strategy. Currently looking to consolidate into 12-15 positions as well as reduce exposure to U.S stocks due to estate tax concerns as a NRA. Would love your comments and ideas. Ticker Weight Why should it compound? GOOG 10.83% Network effects, Gemini, ad platform scale, huge free cash flow reinvestment + optionality BN 8.51% Fee-bearing capital growth + carry + recycling capital in long-life assets + disciplined allocation AVGO 7.86% Deep customer entrenchment + pricing power + high FCF + accretive M&A + shareholder returns FRFHF 7.55% Underwriting + float + opportunistic capital allocation + long-term compounding via investments TSM 6.36% Process/scale moat + capex barrier + customer entrenchment + structurally rising silicon content NVO 6.34% Category leadership + manufacturing/clinical moat + long-duration demand growth + global distribution scale META 6.12% Attention/graph scale + ad efficiency + high incremental margins + buybacks/reinvestment AMZN 6.10% Platform flywheel + logistics scale + high-margin AWS/ads + reinvestment at massive scale IBKR 5.22% Scale economics + automation + net interest + increasing assets/accounts + sticky active users V 5.09% Network effects + volume growth tied to GDP + operating leverage + very high ROIC BKNG 4.52% Marketplace scale + brand + high take-rate economics + strong free cash flow KLAC 4.38% High switching costs + process complexity tailwind + service revenue + capex intensity as barrier SNPS 4.32% Deep switching costs + mission-critical workflow + pricing power + recurring licensing SAFRY 4.10% Huge installed base + long aftermarket/service tail + high switching costs + air traffic growth URI 3.86% Scale + dense branch network + fleet utilization + pricing power + high ROIC reinvestment FER 3.08% Contracted/regulated cash flows + long-duration concessions + inflation linkage + capital recycling INVE.B 2.50% Compounds via high-quality underlying businesses + long-term capital allocation + low turnover TEA.AX 1.63% Skilled trade services + essential maintenance/shutdowns + recurring revenue from blue-chip industrial clients PRX.AS 1.63% Fee income + investing platform + compounding via reinvestment and acquisitions
ICUMD Posted January 10 Posted January 10 1 hour ago, serkapon said: Used to be a dividend growth investor but I "grew out" of that strategy. Curious as to why you 'grew' out of the dividend strategy? Dividend yielders are about 2/3 my portfolio, 1/3 is Googl with a bite of Apple.
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