Guy Spier Op-Ed: "The Golden Age of Value Investing Is Over"

[John Hjorth]

Great for old semi-cranky buggers with health issues to experience young guys with lots of appetite on the future! 

Edited January 23 by John Hjorth

[Saluki]

8 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

When I start a fund 10 something years from now, I hope the members on this forum will fund me just like how Guy's father and his friends did. My parents aren't rich, so I'm counting on you guys. I recall @Luke saying he will seed me with $50M which is only a fraction of the TSMC money he made. Let's try GS' fee structure and we'll see how it goes.  

 

I wouldn't want to run a fund. I enjoy investing my money and sharing my ideas, but if I am having a bad year, I don't want to answer phone calls from disappointed people and walk them through the positions. And running a fund means doing a LOT of the stuff that isn't fun (road shows, audits, letters, compliance, payroll, negotiating contracts for office space etc). 

 

And a lot of people who manage money are annoying and incestuous about trades (not on this board though). Which is why I think there are so many examples of non-NYC investors hitting it out of the park. 

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, Saluki said:

 

I wouldn't want to run a fund. I enjoy investing my money and sharing my ideas, but if I am having a bad year, I don't want to answer phone calls from disappointed people and walk them through the positions. And running a fund means doing a LOT of the stuff that isn't fun (road shows, audits, letters, compliance, payroll, negotiating contracts for office space etc). 

 

And a lot of people who manage money are annoying and incestuous about trades (not on this board though). Which is why I think there are so many examples of non-NYC investors hitting it out of the park. 

Well, see that’s because people like us had to grind. I’d imagine for folks like GS or DE that (roadshows, audits, letters, compliance, etc) vs having to go out and work a real world, normal person job…..the decision is pretty darn easy. 
 

So when we look at things now, having accomplished what we did, on our own, and evaluate the attractive of “(roadshows, audits, letters, compliance, etc) it’s an easy “no thanks”. But imagine being just out of school and having to choose between all that shit, and knowing just biding your time will statistically almost guarantee a better outcome personally than the routes we had ahead of us at that point in time? 

[LC]

8 minutes ago, Saluki said:

I wouldn't want to run a fund. I enjoy investing my money and sharing my ideas, but if I am having a bad year, I don't want to answer phone calls from disappointed people and walk them through the positions. And running a fund means doing a LOT of the stuff that isn't fun (road shows, audits, letters, compliance, payroll, negotiating contracts for office space etc). 

 

IBKR makes it pretty easy to manage for friends/family! That's what I do and it works pretty well. And since it's all F&F, my "clients" all come pre-screened. My parents are too old to care, my brother lives on a farm and is more interested in his tractor, and my friends I tell them if they don't like it, take some money and see if they outperform the S&P! I also set expectations super low because I don't feel like explaining anything or justifying myself to anyone! 

[whatstheofficerproblem]

26 minutes ago, Saluki said:

I wouldn't want to run a fund. I enjoy investing my money and sharing my ideas, but if I am having a bad year, I don't want to answer phone calls from disappointed people and walk them through the positions. And running a fund means doing a LOT of the stuff that isn't fun (road shows, audits, letters, compliance, payroll, negotiating contracts for office space etc). 

 

I'm seeing that first hand & I agree, I was merely taking a jab at Luke's infinite wealth. Adding something onto @Gregmal's words, another reason I think non-NYC hit it out is because when you're in NYC you're mostly spoon-fed most of your info and opinion about companies.

 

Try going to any given fund on the street and asking them to buy CSU or GTLB. Software is so out of favor that these funds don't even want to debate the merits. I personally think now is a very good time to be a value investor if you have duration, because the rest of the market certainly doesn't have any.

[Gregmal]

LMFAO 100%. Nowhere in the world have I ever seen such rampant group-think from guys whom each think and boast of themselves being high level, independent thinkers; than the NYC Finance bro crowd. 

[Spekulatius]

On 1/23/2026 at 1:15 AM, whatstheofficerproblem said:

When I start a fund 10 something years from now, I hope the members on this forum will fund me just like how Guy's father and his friends did. My parents aren't rich, so I'm counting on you guys. I recall @Luke saying he will seed me with $50M which is only a fraction of the TSMC money he made. Let's try GS' fee structure and we'll see how it goes.  

My only suggestion is not to wait for 10 years.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

My only suggestion is not to wait for 10 years.

 

Interesting, why do you say that?

[LC]

Sooner you can start fundraising the better.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

I doubt folks are willing to throw their money at 22 year olds from state schools. Not to mention the cost of running a fund, I'm seeing it first hand and it aches me. Last thing I wanna do is throw a bunch of 'pass-through fees' onto LPs.

[Gregmal]

11 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

I doubt folks are willing to throw their money at 22 year olds from state schools. Not to mention the cost of running a fund, I'm seeing it first hand and it aches me. Last thing I wanna do is throw a bunch of 'pass-through fees' onto LPs.

Yea you’re entirely correct. If you want to eventually get into that game, you need to follow the leaders unfortunately. Get your stupid 3 letter designations…MBA, CFA(both total wastes of time), work at a resume builder fund, get to “portfolio manager” as your desk moniker….then basically build a stealth Rolodex of future investors; leave and spend $50k+ in startup costs hoping you picked the right time and yet still, it’s mainly just sales skills and marketing provided you have the book report resume….

 

Or, just get enough capital of your own, get some friends and family on board, and then do it the right way and just build out a track record by accident, which in time will be more impressive than going the traditional suit route. 

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Yep. @Gregmal, Opalesque actually did a very interesting study. It just so happens that the best performing managers are unable to raise money and are eventually forced to shut down shop while the mediocre/worst performing ones keep getting injections. The answer for this came down to a single differentiating factor and that is marketing.

 

Opalesque observed that good managers trust their performance will do the marketing but the truth is often very disappointing and the loudest get more attention than the smartest.

Edited January 25 by whatstheofficerproblem

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Yep. @Gregmal, Opalesque actually did a very interesting study. It just so happens that the best performing managers are unable to raise money and are eventually forced to shut down shop while the mediocre/worst performing ones keep getting injections. The answer for this came down to a single differentiating factor and that is marketing.

 

Opalesque observed that good managers trust their performance will do the marketing but the truth is often very disappointing and the loudest get more attention than the smartest.

LOL totally relate. When I first started off, was doing brokerage…the senior folks at the firms always marveled at my stock picks/trading results. But always wanted the standard institutional bullshit around “show me how you do it”…of course meaning…stupid and time wasting analyst style reports, reproducible trading patterns or strategies, basically, if they couldn’t understand it, and replicate it, it didn’t count. 
 

What I did, and what I’d recommend to you, is just stick to your guns, because eventually if you produce enough, with all the capital out there, enough will come your way to set you free. 

[gfp]

2 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Or, just get enough capital of your own, get some friends and family on board, and then do it the right way and just build out a track record by accident, which in time will be more impressive than going the traditional suit route. 

 

Yep - this is all you need.  I don't understand that study that says the best performing funds 'were forced to shut down' - didn't their AUM grow by large amounts each year through performance alone?  The best way for a good performer with no interest in sales or asset gathering to build a business is to make your early investors very rich through year in year out compounding.  They reciprocate with trust and are the best clients/partners/whatever you could hope for.  And you never need to spend time fund raising.  I only ever had a single client that was rich when we started (and they were very rich).  Everyone else was not.

 

If you are putting up a good long term track record and managing money for others that isn't completely for free, you are getting a raise every year.  Add in the investment results on your own capital and you are getting a substantial raise (almost) every year.

[UK]

5 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

I doubt folks are willing to throw their money at 22 year olds from state schools. Not to mention the cost of running a fund, I'm seeing it first hand and it aches me. Last thing I wanna do is throw a bunch of 'pass-through fees' onto LPs.

I think WB had started his first parnership at 25, so you still have 3 years to beat/be even with him at this

 

Edited January 25 by UK

[whatstheofficerproblem]

4 minutes ago, UK said:

I think WB had started his first parnership at 25, so you still have 3 years to beat/be even with him at this

 

Survivorship bias. Also, times were different. If any of the big fund founders were to set up a fund today, they would never be as successful. The competition for capital is very intense. Market also has 0 duration in a way that only group think gets rewarded in the meantime.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

But I do find great comfort knowing folks in here think I will be able to do it eventually. Thanks guys!

Edited January 25 by whatstheofficerproblem

[UK]

This is offtopic to this thread, but I think I remember somebody (maybe it was you, Mr. Officer?) pointing a good book on biopharma investing, but I can not find it now by searching. Could anyone please repeat it to me?

[whatstheofficerproblem]

3 minutes ago, UK said:

This is offtopic to this thread, but I think I remember somebody (maybe it was you, Mr. Officer?) pointing a good book on biopharma investing, but I can not find it now by searching. Could anyone please repeat it to me?

 

If you're referring to my handful recommendations as a reply to @sleepydragon, it's in the LQDA thread, I sent them to you. 

[UK]

2 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

If you're referring to my handful recommendations as a reply to @sleepydragon, it's in the LQDA thread, I sent them to you. 

Yes, this, thank you!

[Ver]

Li Lu - "We don’t beat ourselves up.  We only do things we truly understand, and refuse to do what we don’t.  In this way, we can act with no misgivings and avoid the markets ups and downs from affecting our emotions.  You will only be able to accumulate a long track record if you can live this way.  Having a calm mindset is therefore extremely important...We are very picky with our clients and do not manage money simply to make the rich richer.  This is how we feel like we are contributing to society.  If you arrange your life in this way, you will be more at ease and less anxious.  You will be able to walk through life unhurried and at your own pace.

 

A lot of investors have told me that they want to invest like I do but their clients won’t let them because they’re always thinking about how much money they can make in the next hour or so.  I personally think that you should not take these kinds of people as your clients.  They then say that if they didn’t have these clients, they wouldn’t have any clients.  And then how would they go about finding clients like mine?  I didn’t have any investors when I started, only the money I had borrowed.  My net assets at the time were negative.  Munger likes to ask, how do you go about finding a good wife?  The first step is to deserve a good wife, because a good wife is no fool.  Clients are the same.  When our fund started, it was my own money for many years plus some from a few close friends who believed in me.  Over time, as you accumulate more experience and build your track record, suitable people will naturally find you.  And amongst them, you can choose the most suitable.  You can do it this way very gradually with no need to rush – and with no need to compare yourself to others.  The most important thing is therefore to be able to let things come as they are.  You must have faith in the power of compounding and the power of gradual progress."

 

The best companies are willing to accept short-term pain for long term advantages. No reason why it should be any different with investors and their funds. Either screen hard and only accept like-minded clients who won't cause performance to suffer or follow Reece Duca's route and only manage your own money to avoid any risk of it. The hard part is that even accepting only like-minded clients is likely to affect performance. 

[villainx]

15 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Or, just get enough capital of your own, get some friends and family on board,

Turbo rich dad, then turbo rich dad friends, and also get turbo rich your friends too. 
 

Anyway, find it delightful that folks are so inventive, never came across that phrase before but turbo rich seems like a ridiculous short hand that something social media is good at brewing up. 

Edited January 25 by villainx

[Marco Van Basten]

12 hours ago, gfp said:

 

Yep - this is all you need.  I don't understand that study that says the best performing funds 'were forced to shut down' - didn't their AUM grow by large amounts each year through performance alone?  The best way for a good performer with no interest in sales or asset gathering to build a business is to make your early investors very rich through year in year out compounding.  They reciprocate with trust and are the best clients/partners/whatever you could hope for.  And you never need to spend time fund raising.  I only ever had a single client that was rich when we started (and they were very rich).  Everyone else was not.

 

If you are putting up a good long term track record and managing money for others that isn't completely for free, you are getting a raise every year.  Add in the investment results on your own capital and you are getting a substantial raise (almost) every year.

With all due respect, I disagree.  First of all, compliance and legal/regulatory costs have gone up quite a bit, particularly since asset limits have not been adjusted for inflation in thirty or forty years.  Second of all, people die, get divorced, lose their jobs or if you do really well and go from 10% of someone's assets to 50%, they cut you to 20-25%.  

[gfp]

1 hour ago, villainx said:

Turbo rich dad, then turbo rich dad friends, and also get turbo rich your friends too. 
 

Anyway, find it delightful that folks are so inventive, never came across that phrase before but turbo rich

seems like a ridiculous short hand that something social media is good at brewing up. 

 

I thought that was just the name we used for @wabuffo  

 

"oh, that's Bill.  He's turbo rich"

 

 

Edited January 25 by gfp

[John Hjorth]

2 minutes ago, gfp said:

I thought that was just the name we used for @wabuffo  

 

"oh, that's Bill.  He's turbo rich"

 

 

 

 - Aren't your personal business setup as RIA of separate accounts for clients [please disregard about directly held real estate here]?