25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports.

[SharperDingaan]

On 1/23/2025 at 2:18 PM, SharperDingaan said:

 

Sold our additional BTC-ETF over the last few days, and have a swing trade on the remaining core BTC-ETF. Rather think that Trump screwed the pooch with the $TRUMP dump, and that it will take a while to restore confidence in BTC.

 

In the meantime .... a pile of cash looking to return to o/g, on a threatening tweet 

 

SD  

 

We have now made our return for the year, closed out our swing trades, and have a pile a cash to apply to whatever emerges. Not proud of the outcome, but we will survive to fight another day.

 

The hope is that o/g is either exempted tomorrow, or put on a fast track to an exemption. Should Quebec/Newfoundland/Ontario  electricity exports subsequently get an exemption, the whole tariff thing drops away as the US will have a net trade surplus. Lot of ways it could go.

 

Lot of folks are going to lose work over this, but long term .... it's probably one of the best things that could have happened to Canada. Rough hockey that raises everyone's game, and KEEPS IT THERE.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited Friday at 09:26 PM by SharperDingaan

[Junior R]

4 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

We have now made our return for the year, closed out our swing trades, and have a pile a cash to apply to whatever emerges. Not proud of the outcome, but we will survive to fight another day.

 

The hope is that o/g is either exempted tomorrow, or put on a fast track to an exemption. Should Quebec/Newfoundland/Ontario  electricity exports subsequently get an exemption, the whole tariff thing drops away as the US will have a net trade surplus. Lot of ways it could go.

 

Lot of folks are going to lose work over this, but long term .... it's probably one of the best things that could have happened to Canada. Rough hockey that raises everyone's game, and KEEPS IT THERE.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am not sure its good long term.. it all depends on if companies can survive 

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, Junior R said:

I am not sure its good long term.. it all depends on if companies can survive 

 

Inter provincial trade barriers would never have come down were it not for Trump. Similarly, a national energy policy, a national water policy, cross country rail and pipe transportation that  stays entirely within Canada, and new pipe going east.

 

Pipe entirely made from Canadian steel, laid by Canadian crew, using European fittings wherever possible, and with minimal US financing and/or involvement - to prove that it can be done.

 

And if some of that financing were Chinese .... well if you don't like it, buy them out at the Trump tariff!

 

SD

 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 03:49 AM by SharperDingaan

[Spooky]

6 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

Lot of folks are going to lose work over this, but long term .... it's probably one of the best things that could have happened to Canada. Rough hockey that raises everyone's game, and KEEPS IT THERE.

 

I hope this happens. Canada's problem for so long has been complacency - life has been good and easy. Let's start playing with some sharp elbows.

[Spekulatius]

It’s pretty clear there are going to be tariffs on everything - Mexico, Canada, EU, computer chips- you name it.

 

[Sweet]

I’m thought Intel would rip, I know TSMC has a foundry but their gov have stated 2nm chips will not be made in US.

 

So there must be another side of the story.  Investors obviously expecting large retaliatory tariffs.

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Sweet said:

I’m thought Intel would rip, I know TSMC has a foundry but their gov have stated 2nm chips will not be made in US.

 

So there must be another side of the story.  Investors obviously expecting large retaliatory tariffs.

Intel is vulnerable because they have a large export business, which would be impacted by retaliatory tariffs. They also import a lot of inputs for production - wafers, consumables equipment etc. Those are subject to tariffs as well. So it’s not that simple.

 

A manufacturer in Japan or Taiwan (AMD)  will have a much easier time to sell chips in Europe or pretty much anywhere but the USA if this plays out the way I think it will.

[SharperDingaan]

Hate to say it, but this is the time for viscous high sticking,  and hitting back as hard as possible. It's also the time to globally close ranks on the US, and tariff most all US exports to all the major US  customers.

 

No point to moving manufacturing to the US if you then can't sell the goods. The US just experiences mass unemployment ..... along with everyone else, then pays reparations, as the free trade agreement continues until 2036.

 

Oil trains to the east and west coast will start within months, the whole transit will be through Canada, and Europe/Asia will benefit instead. The oil pulled from the US flow south to force up the domestic US price of heavy crude. Empty railcars returning with refined product, refined elsewhere. Both nations trading unemployment.

 

After the losses of Pearl Harbour the US was outgunned in most everything. Then, as now, the solution was to bring the fight to the enemy and attack the Marshall Islands. It was good for morale, the nation needed to hit back, and it proved that the empire wasn't all powerful. Welcome to tariffs.

 

SD

 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 03:49 PM by SharperDingaan

[Tenerife]

There's another way to look into these tariffs. US is moving from Direct tax(reducing Income tax) to Indirect Tax (Tariff) via these moves. They can't do this via increasing the sales tax. That will back fire, but using tariffs they can change the political view using emotion of nationalism.

[Spekulatius]

32 minutes ago, Tenerife said:

There's another way to look into these tariffs. US is moving from Direct tax(reducing Income tax) to Indirect Tax (Tariff) via these moves. They can't do this via increasing the sales tax. That will back fire, but using tariffs they can change the political view using emotion of nationalism.

Tariffs are a consumption tax and essentially degressive. It means the rich will pay less and the middle class and lower income will pay more.

so yes, change in the tax system is one way to look at it. the whole thing had nothing to do with fentanyl or emigration because he want to tax Europe and Taiwan, so this just a pretense.

It is clear to me that based on what Trump states, he wants to balance the US trade with goods.Tariffs are a means to reduce imports. The problem is that it’s actually very hard to reduce all these goods in the US, there is lack of labor force and high costs. So it’s inflationary for sure.

 

The other issue is that it is impossible to have a reserve currency and have a balance trade. the reason is simple, for a currency to work as a reserve currency other counties need to have a net balance of the reserve currency or you can’t store or trade it. If the USD is not going to be a reserve currently, the value compared to other currency needs to decline, there is no way around it. That also helps with balance if the trade of goods.

 

There are also other consequence  like less foreign investments in the US and a diminished status and influence on the world stage. It’s not really Amerika first, it’s more like Amerika going it alone.

 

[Spekulatius]

I think what’s Canada specifically needs to do is, push ahead with NAFTA ex US and conclude a free trade zone with the Mexico, EU and the UK and perhaps others like Australia that want to participate. I think the EU is open to it and adding Canada energy resources ought to be welcome additions to the EU free trade zone.

 

That assumes that some of the climate change goals or the way they are implement need to be revised. However, even without the energy part, a free trade agreement between and Canada/Mexico will be beneficial.

Canada needs to develop the infrastructure to export to both the east and west coast where it is needed - the equivalent of the Trans Canada highway but with pipes, harbor facilities.

 

This could actually quite become a real transformative infrastructure project for Canada. yes, it will take years to undo the US tries,  it all the more reason to start sooner rather than later imo.

It takes a political with some vision to execute though. What do I know, I am not a Canadian, but if I were, that’s what I would do or at least vote for. Doesn’t even matter if Trump goes ahead with the tariffs or pulls the rug last minute. This ought to be a wake up call that too much dependency is never a good thing.

Edited yesterday at 04:50 PM by Spekulatius

[Spooky]

1 minute ago, Spekulatius said:

I think what’s Canada specifically needs to do is, push ahead with NAFTA ex US and conclude a free trade zone with the Mexico, EU and the UK and perhaps others like Australia that want to participate. I think the EU is open to it and adding Canada energy resources ought to be welcome additions to the EU free trade zone.

 

That assumes that some of the climate change goals or the way they are implement need to be revised. However, even without the energy part, a free trade agreement between and Canada/Mexico will be beneficial.

Canada needs to develop the infrastructure to export to both the east and west coast where it is needed - the equivalent of the Trans Canada highway but with pipes, harbor facilities.

 

This could actually quite become a real transformative infrastructure project for Canada. yes, it will take years to undo the US tries,  it all the more reason to start sooner rather than later imo.

It takes a political with some vision to execute though. What do I know, I am not a Canadian, but if I were, that’s what I would do or at least vote for. Doesn’t even matter if Trump goes ahead with the tariffs or pulls the rug last minute. This ought to be a wake up call that too much dependency is never a good thing.

 

I agree - with the US becoming more insular and isolationist I would like to see Canada go the opposite direction and embrace free trade with other parties. The EU has been taking some positive actions in this respect. The problem is in Canada we have no Prime Minster and our Parliament is currently suspended...

 

[backtothebeach]

I highly doubt the 25% will stand. Here is my prediction: Canada will threaten retaliatory tariffs, and make some bullshit concessions, ultimately it will be 10%, something everyone can kind of live with.

[Spekulatius]

Just now, Spooky said:

 

I agree - with the US becoming more insular and isolationist I would like to see Canada go the opposite direction and embrace free trade with other parties. The EU has been taking some positive actions in this respect. The problem is in Canada we have no Prime Minster and our Parliament is currently suspended...

 

Why haven’t elections been moved ahead like in Germany? It’s not a great time to run rudderless when your 10x larger neighbor bullies you.

[Spooky]

46 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Why haven’t elections been moved ahead like in Germany? It’s not a great time to run rudderless when your 10x larger neighbor bullies you.

 

Far from ideal. The Liberal party had been delaying things since they are so unpopular.

[maplevalue]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/live-updates-canada-braces-for-trumps-tariffs/
 

energy 10%, 25% all else

[cubsfan]

It's interesting to see all the predictions of US isolationism, the tariffs won't work, will cause inflation, blah, blah, blah. It's simply a realignment that focuses on our citizens.

 

Tariffs will be used to seal the border, reduce drug trafficking, increase security and increase middle-class  jobs in America - and lastly, reduce the trade deficit.

 

It's a wonderful thing for the country - even though it may get a little painful for everyone involved.

But it will be particularly painful for Mexico, given the asymmetrical relationship the US has with them. 

[dwy000]

23 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

It's interesting to see all the predictions of US isolationism, the tariffs won't work, will cause inflation, blah, blah, blah. It's simply a realignment that focuses on our citizens.

 

Tariffs will be used to seal the border, reduce drug trafficking, increase security and increase middle-class  jobs in America - and lastly, reduce the trade deficit.

 

It's a wonderful thing for the country - even though it may get a little painful for everyone involved.

But it will be particularly painful for Mexico, given the asymmetrical relationship the US has with them. 

Every economist, the Wall Street Journal and every trade or historical expert disagrees with this.  It has nothing to do with drugs, it has nothing to do with immigration (why tarriff the EU).  It's going to cause massive disruption and excess cost/inflation. Homebuilders and auto companies will be especially hard hit. Manufacturing won't move onshore because nobody is investing millions in infrastructure to offset a tarriff that could literally be cancelled tomorrow (and almost certainly after next president takes office).  

 

As the WSJ opined today this is the dumbest trade war in history. There's no purpose and it hurts Americans for zero reason. 

Edited 22 hours ago by dwy000

[Lazarus]

I'm super curious to see the stock market reaction on Monday. 

[Buckeye]

29 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

It's interesting to see all the predictions of US isolationism, the tariffs won't work, will cause inflation, blah, blah, blah. It's simply a realignment that focuses on our citizens.

 

Tariffs will be used to seal the border, reduce drug trafficking, increase security and increase middle-class  jobs in America - and lastly, reduce the trade deficit.

 

It's a wonderful thing for the country - even though it may get a little painful for everyone involved.

But it will be particularly painful for Mexico, given the asymmetrical relationship the US has with them. 

Sean Hannity is this you?

[cwericb]

29 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

It's interesting to see all the predictions of US isolationism, the tariffs won't work, will cause inflation, blah, blah, blah. It's simply a realignment that focuses on our citizens.

 

Tariffs will be used to seal the border, reduce drug trafficking, increase security and increase middle-class  jobs in America - and lastly, reduce the trade deficit.

 

It's a wonderful thing for the country - even though it may get a little painful for everyone involved.

But it will be particularly painful for Mexico, given the asymmetrical relationship the US has with them. 

 

"The United States is the world's second-largest exporter of goods, after China"

 

So quick question to you Cubs: Who is the US's biggest customer for it's goods?

[Blake Hampton]

Every single aspect of this is full-blown stupid. If it goes through, expect inflation.

[Spekulatius]

Here are stats on the US Canada trade balance:

https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.canada-and-us-economics-.canada-and-us-decks.trade-stats--january-31--2025-.html#:~:text=Energy accounted for 30% of,US goods imports from Canada.
 

Total trade is between the two is 600B CAD and trade deficit is ~41B cad so only 7% of the total. Furthermore, if you exclude energy, then the balance of good and services between CA and the US is actually negative for Canada, meaning that Canada imports more than it exports ex energy.

[cubsfan]

50 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Every economist, the Wall Street Journal and every trade or historical expert disagrees with this.  It has nothing to do with drugs, it has nothing to do with immigration (why tarriff the EU).  It's going to cause massive disruption and excess cost/inflation. Homebuilders and auto companies will be especially hard hit. Manufacturing won't move onshore because nobody is investing millions in infrastructure to offset a tarriff that could literally be cancelled tomorrow (and almost certainly after next president takes office).  

 

As the WSJ opined today this is the dumbest trade war in history. There's no purpose and it hurts Americans for zero reason. 

 

But most Americans agree they have had enough of fentanyl deaths, child sex trafficking, crime, open borders - especially with Mexico. Why would they care about the WSJ - a leftist rag.

 

There will be pain, but there will be safety. US capitalism makes amazingly quick adjustments.

Edited 21 hours ago by cubsfan

[cubsfan]

35 minutes ago, cwericb said:

 

"The United States is the world's second-largest exporter of goods, after China"

 

So quick question to you Cubs: Who is the US's biggest customer for it's goods?

 

A pop quiz - I like that - Canada??  

 

Go ahead - predict the demise of the US.  Capitalism adjusts period.