25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports.

[enoch01]

This may be the most exciting thread since the GFC days.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

The things up during Trumps presidency so far are :

1) shitcoins

2) egg prices

3) oil prices

4) interest rates

5) Elon’s arm

 

Rest is all down, go figure

 

 

 

 

 

People thought it'd be any different than his disaster of 4 years in office. Go figure. 

 

Don't believe you're lying eyes ...or the lying understanding of his first 4 years office....or the lies of economic/stock market performance under Democrats vs Republicans. 

 

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

Trump is introducing a defacto US federal sales tax levied on imported goods.......its just being hidden such that it wont show up on your Amazon/Walmart receipt or when you buy that new car from the dealer.

 

It's a tax revenue raising measure, masquerading as nationalism.....I must say this nationalism vehicle for stealth tax rises seems to be working a treat as evidenced by a bunch of posters here who've seem to have bought the spin hook, line and sinker.

 

"Donald Trump just raised taxes" ...the US federal government , under Trump, just got bigger and is going to be taking more money out of American pockets and sending it to D.C. to prop up busted entitlement programs and various tax breaks like carried interest. He's sucking those tax tariff dollars up into the Federal budget swamp to help plug the 7% deficit...while pretending that without touching entitlements DOGE is going to meaningfully shrink the deficit.......that folks believe this nonsense he sellings just tells you what a brilliant salesmen he is.

 

Well, the same people who believe tarriffs doesn't raise prices and the wall was paid for by Mexico don't believe you. I just don't know who to believe?!?? The evidence? Or the people who say Trump is right? 

 

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

I think the damage that the USA has done with contract breach and covert bullying to its reputation cannot be repaired any more. The USA is not a reliable partner any more as every agreement like NAFTA has been broken. The problem with Trump’s Art of the Deal is that it only works once. I don’t think the result gains will be worth it, a reputation gained in decades has been shot in days. Peter Zeihan has it right and will be going it alone. Japan, Canada, Europe, UK, Australia need to chart their way too separate from the USA and perhaps better together than separate. Welcome to the multipolar world.

 

+1 

 

Trump ripped up NAFTA to rewrite NAFTA and is now pissed off and wants to redo it. 100% bluster and 0% substance. Almost like it was obvious to half of us...

 

 

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Wait wait wait, now all of a sudden we can claim he’s doing what some of his biggest critics said we needed, ie trying to balance the deficit, supposedly raise taxes, etc…and it’s omg look at what he’s doing?!? lol my god. Really is derangement syndrome. 

 

If you actually believe Trump is "trying to balance the deficit", I'm not even sure it's worth a discussion. 

 

He's a self proclaimed "debt guy" who ran a casino into the ground. The man doesn't know how to stick to a budget if his life depended on it. He "loves the uneducated" and takes advantage of that by selling this as patriotism when it's just a dick measuring contest. 

 

You heard it here first - there will be exactly 0 years of the next 4 where the deficit is sub-1 trillion. 

 

48 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Frankly, I have less of a problem with Elon than I do with Trump.  Wait till those two come to blows...and it will come!  Cheers!

 

Elon's history is not one of working well with others. I snorted with laughter when he was made co-head of DOGE. Let alone having to share the limelight and authority with Trump....

Edited 4 hours ago by TwoCitiesCapital

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

you actually believe Trump is "trying to balance the deficit", I'm not even sure it's worth a discussion. 

 

Isn’t this exactly what was said by several people, one of which you quoted lol?

[Mephistopheles]

Ok what’s on everyone’s buy list for tomorrow?

 

 

I’m thinking autos get crushed and GM being a massive cannibal might be worth a bet on OTM calls.

 

Oil? Although someone said that shale is not useful alone without Canadian heavy, for refining purposes. Is that true? @SharperDingaan

[TwoCitiesCapital]

6 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Isn’t this exactly what was said by several people, one of which you quoted lol?

 

Perhaps. I don't subscribe to the beliefs of every person I'm responding to via quoting. 

 

Trump will be balancing no deficits this term. He doesn't know how to. In his personal life, business life, or prior political life - this man has never lived within his means. It's foolish to think it magically changes. 

 

The tarriffs have the unintended consequence of raising taxes on his illiterate followers AND those who can read. But it's not about that - it's about showing he's the biggest kid on the playground - just like it's always been. Why else tear up the trade agreements he put in place himself?

 

Edited 4 hours ago by TwoCitiesCapital

[dwy000]

1 minute ago, Mephistopheles said:

Ok what’s on everyone’s buy list for tomorrow?

 

 

I’m thinking autos get crushed and GM being a massive cannibal might be worth a bet on OTM calls.

 

Oil? Although someone said that shale is not useful alone without Canadian heavy, for refining purposes. Is that true? @SharperDingaan

I think tomorrow is only the first leg and people still hope it gets resolved before they kick in Tuesday.  If no change there will likely be another couple of legs down. 

[DooDiligence]

2 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Perhaps. I don't subscribe to the beliefs of every person I'm responding to via quoting. 

 

Trump will be balancing no deficits this term. He doesn't know how to. In his personal life, business life, or prior political life - this man has never lived within his means. It's foolish to think it magically changes. 

 

The tarriffs have the unintended consequence of raising taxes on his illiterate followers AND those who can read. But it's not about that - it's about showing he's the biggest kid on the playground - just like it's always been. Why else tear up the trade agreements he put in place himself?

 

 

Won't be the first time this malignant clown has run a business into the ground.

[LC]

5 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said:

Ok what’s on everyone’s buy list for tomorrow?

 

 

Fairfax and Aecon are my two largest positions and (moreso with Aecon) I am giving up already a lot of 2024's outperformance. So I'll be monitoring those two tomorrow. Really most of the risk there is exchange rate - related, not so much tariffs. Aecon does most of its work in Canada (and owns some US subs). Fairfax similarly I think the material parts of the business are not directly impacted by tariffs.

 

The rest? We'll see what drops...in theory you'd like to buy companies where management is actually going to capitalize on the situation. Someone of these old economy companies (e.g. GM) I could see taking their foot off the pedal.

Edited 4 hours ago by LC

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said:

Ok what’s on everyone’s buy list for tomorrow?

 

 

I’m thinking autos get crushed and GM being a massive cannibal might be worth a bet on OTM calls.

 

Oil? Although someone said that shale is not useful alone without Canadian heavy, for refining purposes. Is that true? @SharperDingaan

You talked me into some AN….think it’s interesting here? Don’t cars on the lots and existing vehicles become a wee bit more valuable til this subsides? 

[Spekulatius]

2 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said:

Ok what’s on everyone’s buy list for tomorrow?

 

 

I’m thinking autos get crushed and GM being a massive cannibal might be worth a bet on OTM calls.

 

Oil? Although someone said that shale is not useful alone without Canadian heavy, for refining purposes. Is that true? @SharperDingaan

I keep an eye on everything that is on my watchlist but it’s a bit early imo. There is a real risk of a Smoot Hawley like tariff spiral . Not that I think that a Great Depression is likely but there could be a substantial reset. if this were to unfold, stocks would go way lower. So far, the 2% decline in future is peanuts.

Remember, EU is up for a tariff review on April 1st, I think and it’s likely there will be tariffs on exports from the EU as well, as well as a corresponding counter tariffs.

[Spooky]

16 minutes ago, james22 said:

That you are unfamiliar with the issue might explain why you are so surprised by the tariffs, eh?

 

Give me some real data or evidence to support the claim that you are making.

 

I'm not surprised by the tariffs, Trump is dumb enough to go forward with it. I'm surprised that economically literate members of this board don't have a problem with it.

[james22]

Huh.

 

 

[LC]

BTW @Mephistopheles On light / heavy oil mix:

 

There are hundreds of varieties of crude oil around the world. Different types of oil require different refining processes to make the fuels we need in the quantities we need. Many American refineries need heavier crudes than what is largely produced in the United States.

• Crude oils have different viscosities or “gravities.” “Heavy” crude oil is more viscous, while “light” crude oil is thinner.
• Crude oils also have different sulfur content. Low-sulfur crude is called “sweet” and high-sulfur crude is called “sour.”
• Refineries run on a mix of crude oils in order to run efficiently and maximize outputs. More than 70% of U.S. refining capacity runs most efficiently with heavier crude. That is why 90% of crude oil imports into the United States are heavier than U.S.-produced shale crude.
• Because heavier crude is more difficult to process and requires refineries to make significant up-front investment costs, it tends to trade at a discount to light crude.

Why do U.S. refineries run on heavier crude oils that we need to import?

Long before the U.S. shale boom, when global production of light sweet crude oil was declining, we made significant investments in our refineries to process heavier, high-sulfur crude oils that were more widely available in the global market. These investments were made to ensure U.S. refineries would have access to the feedstocks needed to produce gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Heavier crude is now an essential feedstock for many U.S. refineries. Substituting it for U.S. light sweet crude oil would make these facilities less efficient and competitive, leading to a decline in fuel production and higher costs for consumers.

[Spooky]

47 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Yes, without Twitter the U.S. would have fallen into chaos and communism!  The woke left cabal would then be able to have babies murdered by cross-dressing drag queen migrants who take a knee before the Super Bowl and want all guns melted into a giant block of metal formed into the image of Nancy Pelosi sticking a bottle up Donald Trump's butt!   Cheers!

 

Beautiful

[Gregmal]

Remember when the guy Biden some of you voted for folded like a cheap suit on dairy and then Trudeau took a few victory laps? This was what? Less than two years ago? Tables have turned I guess 

[cubsfan]

7 minutes ago, james22 said:

Huh.

 

 

 

@james22 Facts just don't work with these guys.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

6 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

@james22 Facts just don't work with these guys.

 

Facts like over the last 35 years the economy and stock market have both grown faster under Democrats? Those kind of facts? 

 

Or facts like every single US recession in the last 35 years was presided over by a Republican? 

 

Or that Trump's biggest business success was selling the lie that he was good at business? Those kinds of facts? 

 

Or the fact that his first four years was a disaster? 

 

You're right. Facts don't matter. 

Edited 3 hours ago by TwoCitiesCapital

[LC]

Just now, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Or facts like every single US recession in the last 35 years was presided over by a Republican? 

 

 

Part of me thinks Trump wants to force Powell's hand here with rates. Dude is probably dying for 2-3% long term rates to refinance. Hell, so am I but I'd rather live with 6% interest that I can always prepay, versus forced consumption taxes (tariffs). 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 minute ago, LC said:

 

Part of me thinks Trump wants to force Powell's hand here with rates. Dude is probably dying for 2-3% long term rates to refinance. Hell, so am I but I'd rather live with 6% interest that I can always prepay, versus forced consumption taxes (tariffs). 

 

Trump was president in 2020 when the 10-year hit 0.25%. He didn't refinance shit. 

 

You're still giving him too much credit. 

Edited 3 hours ago by TwoCitiesCapital

[Red Lion]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

guns melted into a giant block of metal formed into the image of Nancy Pelosi sticking a bottle up Donald Trump's butt!   

I think these would sell really well where I live  

[james22]

2 minutes ago, Spooky said:

Give me some real data or evidence to support the claim that you are making.

 

Well for one, there's actually a money laundering technique known as the Vancouver Model:

 

The Vancouver Model is the name anti-money laundering experts gave to a unique model observed in Vancouver, Canada.

 

It involves taking illicit cash earned through crime to a casino (often a VIP room), and gambling some of the proceeds. The chips are then cashed out of the casino as clean cash.

 

To further obfuscate the funds in a money laundering process known as layering, the funds are then used to buy assets such as real estate.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_laundering_In_Canada

 

Canada has become a safe zone for the world’s most notorious crime groups and threat networks that are harming Canada’s national security and imperiling the security of other nations,” warns a report published in late November by the International Coalition Against Illicit Economies (ICAIE).

 

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/canada-a-safe-haven-for-transnational-crime-networks-and-their-dirty-money-u-s-report

 

“Greater Vancouver has acted as a laundromat for foreign organized crime, including a Mexican cartel, Iranian and Mainland Chinese organized crime,” the German report said. “The region has acquired an unenviable reputation for serving as a site for money laundering, drug trafficking, and capital flight.”

 

https://financialpost.com/real-estate/billions-in-dirty-cash-helped-fuel-vancouvers-housing-boom

 

The network of an elite Chinese Mafia suspect with significant industrial assets in British Columbia has been implicated “in recent RCMP investigations of CCP police stations in Canada, and other countries,” according to a sweeping new report from a United States anti-corruption NGO.

 

The report cites a collection of stunning cases and statistics to argue that transnational criminal networks with ties to China, Iran and Russia are using Canada to launder tens of billions annually, and related economic and political operations are undermining safety and democracy in the West.

 

https://archive.ph/vJpJO#selection-593.0-615.285

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Facts like over the last 35 years the economy and stock market have both grown faster under Democrats? Those kind of facts? 

 

Or facts like every single US recession in the last 35 years was presided over by a Republican? 

 

Or that Trump's biggest business success was selling the lie that he was good at business? Those kinds of facts? 

 

Or the fact that his first four years was a disaster? 

 

You're right. Facts don't matter. 

 

No, facts like the last 4 years of hell under Biden. For the encumbent President to get the boot on a re-election bid - is the evidence of the disaster.  American's kick the bum out - and to add to the 

Democratic Party disaster -they lose the house and the senate too.  Few elections have been this decisive in the repudiation of a US President.

 

American's are sick of the Democratic party of Davos - that gives 2 shits about them.

 

It's why they got their clocks cleaned.

 

Just think of it:  Biden/Harris & the rest of your clown party was so BAD - that they lost to

Donald Trump a SECOND time. Twice now!

 

What does that say about the train wreck your party created?

[wisdom]

Watching this thread over time - even Trumps most ardent supporters can’t justify what he is doing in their name to their allies who stand by US unconditionally- screwing us over in order to do a Putin on us.

 

So they keep changing the reasons or the discussion to rationalize what he is doing in their name to us.

 

Fascinating to observe even the most intelligent people committing mental gymnastics to justify stupidity.

 

If Putin had done the same to a neighbouring country/ally they would have been pontificating on why Russia needs to be stopped.

 

Tribalism trumps rationality - unfortunately 

Edited 3 hours ago by wisdom

[TwoCitiesCapital]

9 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

No, facts like the last 4 years of hell under Biden.

 

I dunno. S&P earnings free 10.5% annualized. The index itself was 9% annualized. Seems pretty far from hell? 

 

Obama's figures far outperformed both Trump's and Bush's. Was that also hell? 

 

 

9 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

For the encumbent President to get the boot on a re-election bid - is the evidence of the disaster.  

 

Or evidence of his obvious cognitive decline....

 

9 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Few elections have been this decisive in the repudiation of a US President.

 

I don't disagree with you here. Few elections have been so impacted by the highschool dropouts.....

 

9 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Just think of it:  Biden/Harris & the rest of your clown party was so BAD - that they lost to

Donald Trump a SECOND time. Twice now!

 

What does that say about the train wreck your party created?

 

I love that you call it "my" party. I've voted right or third party every election of my life....until Trump. A candidate that stands for absolutely NONE of the traditional Republican values. 

 

But yes - me and my left wing WSJ friends who believe facts matter and the DJT has already proved himself to be a shit president should create a new party now that DJT has co-opted the right with zero principals to stand on. 

 

Family values? Yes - let's ask the guy with three failed marriages who was banging porn stars while married. 

 

Balanced budgets? Yes! Let's elect the self described "debt guy" who ran a casino into the ground and ran the largest deficits we've ever seen without a war or recession to blame them on. 

 

Small government? Yes! Let's elect the guy who believes in governing via executive order and coming into your classroom, your bedroom, and your boardroom with government politics. 

 

So Republican of him. 

Edited 3 hours ago by TwoCitiesCapital

[DooDiligence]

10 minutes ago, LC said:

 

Part of me thinks Trump wants to force Powell's hand here with rates. Dude is probably dying for 2-3% long term rates to refinance. Hell, so am I but I'd rather live with 6% interest that I can always prepay, versus forced consumption taxes (tariffs). 

 

Nah, he's got plenty of hidden cash flow from laundering money for russian mobsters.