25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports.

[cubsfan]

31 minutes ago, Sweet said:

@cubsfan

 

@dwy000

 

Both good posters.  Both good insights.  Don’t get banned please!

 

Consider taking this discussion to DMs, Parsad said he’s just gonna lock threads… please.

 

Done - I'll send my files to @dwy000 via pm

 

thanks

[cubsfan]

6 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

 

Way too much common sense there. Tariffs are very effective tool for foriegn policy.

 

 

[cwericb]

8 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

 

Canada is the biggest customer of USA products.

[Eng12345]

As several others have pointed out - lot's of opportunity will likely present itself Monday. 

 

In an effort to focus the board on what we are all here to do: make money.

 

Anyone have thoughts/recommendations on specific companies? I'm fully expecting to get hammered in my current holdings of AEGXF and Strathcona, but plan to buy more Strathcona. 

[cwericb]

4 minutes ago, james22 said:

49% of Canada's imports are from the US.

 

Who has the leverage?

Aaaaa, the customer? Hello China and the rest of the world.

Edited 16 hours ago by cwericb

[Hektor]

52 minutes ago, Sweet said:

I get the tariffs on China - why only 10% though.

 

I also get the tariff on Mexico - leverage in immigration.

 

I don’t get the tariff on Canada.

Is all of these aimed at China, to prevent the Chinese from avoiding tariffs by setting up shop in CAN/MEX?

 

 

[james22]

10 minutes ago, cwericb said:

Canada is the biggest customer of USA products.

 

75% of Canadian exports go to the US. Only 17% of US exports go to Canada.

 

49% of Canada's imports are from the US. Only about 12% of our imports come from them.

 

Who has the leverage?

[james22]

6 minutes ago, cwericb said:

Aaaaa, the customer? Hello China and the rest of the world.

 

LOL

 

Your 49% will now have to go to their (demonstrably) second choice (if even possible).

 

And that second choice won't have to compete with the US, so they'll be even less attractive than they were.

[Blake Hampton]

14 minutes ago, Eng12345 said:

As several others have pointed out - lot's of opportunity will likely present itself Monday. 

 

In an effort to focus the board on what we are all here to do: make money.

 

Anyone have thoughts/recommendations on specific companies? I'm fully expecting to get hammered in my current holdings of AEGXF and Strathcona, but plan to buy more Strathcona. 

Oil

[cwericb]

5 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

75% of Canadian exports go to the US. Only 17% of US exports go to Canada.

 

49% of Canada's imports are from the US. Only about 12% of our imports come from them.

 

Who has the leverage?

 

How about Canada restricts or stops electricity and oil exports? 

[Sweet]

13 minutes ago, Hektor said:

Is all of these aimed at China, to prevent the Chinese from avoiding tariffs by setting up shop in CAN/MEX?

 

 

Never thought of that.  Doubt it, but I don’t know.

[Blake Hampton]

OXY is nearing $45 a share again.

[Spooky]

Bunch of people I have been talking to in Canada are saying they are not going to travel to the US this year for vacation.

5 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

LOL

 

Your 49% will now have to go to their (demonstrably) second choice (if even possible).

 

And that second choice won't have to compete with the US, so they'll be even less attractive than they were.

 

Do you realize that trade benefits both parties? The US is abandoning the free market system it built and benefits the US tremendously.

 

[james22]

4 minutes ago, cwericb said:

How about Canada restricts or stops electricity and oil exports? 

 

What part of  greater leverage don't you understand?

[Spekulatius]

Companies like Linamar will be hit hard. The auto supply business has <10% EBIt margins, so they can’t rats the price. The customer will have to pay more or not get parts. How quickly can you get an alternative supplier in the US to deliver a few million of those after an RFQ?

 

I am not in auto but lead times for all sorts of things have just mushroomed since about the pandemic and never went back. Some stuff that had 6 week lead times are now 26 weeks. There is no spare capacity sitting around anywhere. Will be interesting to see. In the short terms (<6month) I think customer have to eat the cost increase, I think.

 

[Blake Hampton]

Canada is one of our closest allies you morons

[cwericb]

1 minute ago, james22 said:

 

What part of  greater leverage don't you understand?

 

I think you miss the point. It is not the dollar amount, it is the dependency the US has on our exports, oil for your refineries, electricity that helps powers your cities, etc. 

[james22]

1 minute ago, Spooky said:

Do you realize that trade benefits both parties? The US is abandoning the free market system it built and benefits the US tremendously.

 

Do you realize the US would benefit from Canada improving its border security and defense?

[james22]

1 minute ago, cwericb said:

I think you miss the point. It is not the dollar amount, it is the dependency the US has on our exports, oil for your refineries, electricity that helps powers your cities, etc. 

 

What part of greater dependency don't you understand?

[james22]

3 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Canada is one of our closest allies you morons

 

Do they protect our borders like an ally?

 

Do they contribute to our mutual defense equally like an ally?

[Eng12345]

6 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Companies like Linamar will be hit hard. The auto supply business has <10% EBIt margins, so they can’t rats the price. The customer will have to pay more or not get parts. How quickly can you get an alternative supplier in the US to deliver a few million of those after an RFQ?

 

I am not in auto but lead times for all sorts of things have just mushroomed since about the pandemic and never went back. Some stuff that had 6 week lead times are now 26 weeks. There is no spare capacity sitting around anywhere. Will be interesting to see. In the short terms (<6month) I think customer have to eat the cost increase, I think.

 

 

Thanks for bringing this one back up Spek. I traded it in December but decided to get out due to the tariff risk. I will be watching this one heavily. 

 

I would point out that giving a step wise change downward Alsea may be unavoidable, especially when you consider their revenues may not be affected. 

[Gregmal]

Lmfao just recalling all the “concerned citizens” of COBF from 2016-2020….of course the next 4 years of disasters had far fewer worries.

[Peregrine]

Clear to see who thinks of everything as a zero-sum game rather than what free trade really is - win/win.

 

I suspect the tariffs aren't going to have as massive of an effect as some expect given how much the CAD has depreciated against the USD already. Also, to the extent that it'll force some of Canada's cities to crack down on its fentanyl problems, it might be a long-term positive.

[Masterofnone]

I have stayed away from these sort of threads. But in essence, tariffs are a sales tax on the consumer.

This is a way to raise taxes without it sounding like such.

And it is a regressive tax affecting the rich less than others.

[Spooky]

13 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Do you realize the US would benefit from Canada improving its border security and defense?

 

I haven't seen any compelling data or evidence that significant amounts of drugs or immigrants are crossing the border from Canada to the US. Your demands are irrational and the confrontational nature of this policy will be counterproductive for the US in the long run. You are already pissing off your closest friends and allies.