Fairfax 2025

[Munger_Disciple]

19 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

Now that we know they plan on buying back the shares in the TRS position, I believe we will see this gradually get closed out as the market softens and Fairfax doesn't have any other placed to use the excess dividends from the subs.

 

Where did you see that in the report? Thanks

[Parsad]

8 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

"Fair" and "Friendly" are both entirely subjective.  The fiduciary duty owed by a public company to its shareholders is not.  Sorry to have ruffled your feathers. 

 

You can't ruffle Daphne's feathers...she wears only mink coats!  One of the longest FFH shareholders on here.  Cheers!

[Hoodlum]

23 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

 

Where did you see that in the report? Thanks

I should have been less firm in this statement.  It was just a projection based on the initial TRS position that they closed by buying back the shares.  It does make sense to do this over the next couple of years, with all of the cash they will have available. 
 

Edited November 6, 2025 by Hoodlum

[Hoodlum]

28 minutes ago, Viking said:

So much to talk about. This might be the most important new piece of news.

 

Fairfax has 5 income streams. The smallest is 'non-insurance consolidated companies'. I have been calling for this bucket to break out to the upside for 2 years. And I have been wrong. However, in Q2 it came in at $120 million which was quite strong (compared to past results).

 

Well, I think we can now say it is not small anymore, coming in at $211m in Q3-2025.

 

This is a big deal. What is a new income stream of $800 million/year (with a strong growth profile) worth? Just asking for a friend... 

 

PS: I am not sure if any of you have heard of a company called Berkshire Hathaway? You might want to take a peek at how they continued to grow their business over the long term... hint - it wasn't driven by the insurance cycle. I.E. they continued to grow in both hard and soft insurance markets. 

 

We will need to monitor this for the next couple QTRs to see if this trend continues.  This would certainly be welcome news. 

[Redskin212]

$200/share in earnings for the year should be a lay up, but you never know!

 

Edited November 7, 2025 by Redskin212

[treasurehunt]

1 hour ago, djokovic1 said:

Also book value increased 15% in half a year...well thats 30%+ annualised

 

The 15% increase is in 3 quarters, not half a year, right? So over 20% annualized. Great report, regardless.

[glider3834]

1 hour ago, Hoodlum said:

Here are the details of The Keg transaction.  It doesn't mentioned what percentage LFG acquired and at what price.

 

 

On August 13, 2025 the company, through a subsidiary holding company, completed the acquisition of all of the issued and outstanding units of The Keg Royalties Income Fund ("The Keg Fund") that it did not already own for cash consideration of Cdn$18.60 per unit or $150.1 (Cdn$206.5) and recorded the transaction as an asset purchase substantially comprised of the brand name and other intellectual property used in the operation of The Keg restaurants. Subsequently, on September 25, 2025 the company completed a re-organization whereby its subsidiary Keg Restaurants Ltd., which was held through Recipe, amalgamated with the acquirer of The Keg Fund and the amalgamated entity was renamed Keg Restaurants Ltd. ("The Keg"). The company then partnered with a strategic third party who assumed operational control of The Keg by subscribing for shares and entering into a shareholders agreement, resulting in the company deconsolidating the assets and liabilities of The Keg from its non-insurance companies reporting segment and recording its retained interest in The Keg as an investment in associate.

if they are deconsolidating and retaining interest in the Keg as associate - it suggests they may have sold majority of voting rights (3P has operational control) & potentially majority of their economic interest

[Hoodlum]

29 minutes ago, glider3834 said:

if they are deconsolidating and retaining interest in the Keg as associate - it suggests they may have sold majority of voting rights (3P has operational control) & potentially majority of their economic interest

I didn’t think LFG would have the funds for that.  I guess we will find out what the terms were in the year end results, unless someone asks on the conference call tomorrow. 

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, glider3834 said:

if they are deconsolidating and retaining interest in the Keg as associate - it suggests they may have sold majority of voting rights (3P has operational control) & potentially majority of their economic interest

 

1 hour ago, Hoodlum said:

I didn’t think LFG would have the funds for that.  I guess we will find out what the terms were in the year end results, unless someone asks on the conference call tomorrow. 

 

Yeah, not sure how LFG had that much capital.  Either they found a partner (could be the Fuller Family or somebody local) or maybe they leveraged their ownership with some bank financing.  

 

So Fairfax sold a majority interest to LFG, will let them grow it and add other brands, and then probably buy out LFG at some point when it's the size of Recipe?

 

Cheers

[Duke In Shadows]

3 hours ago, Junior R said:

Did you create that?

yes

[Txvestor]

2 hours ago, Haryana said:

With a modest PE multiple of 10 that should already be our 2000 in half time on this poll - 

 

What's crazy is that YTD they bought back ~542k shares at an average of ~$1580, with most of them since July, and yet today Mr Market gave everyone an opportunity to buy in at below that number. To mention nothing of the $3.5B or so of earnings during this time. 
That was an adequate invitation for me. Bought some today. 

Edited November 7, 2025 by Txvestor

[villainx]

Fairfax being Fairfax it wouldn't be out of possibility to dip below 1.3x book, or 1.2 or even lower. Fat pitches can gain weight and stay that way for a bit of time.  

 

I know we are all long term-ers, but sometimes short term stuff comes up.

 

Anyway, let's see what Brett Horn has to say.  

[Txvestor]

6 hours ago, villainx said:

Fairfax being Fairfax it wouldn't be out of possibility to dip below 1.3x book, or 1.2 or even lower. Fat pitches can gain weight and stay that way for a bit of time.  

 

I know we are all long term-ers, but sometimes short term stuff comes up.

 

Anyway, let's see what Brett Horn has to say.  

Granted anything is possible, however, judging from MKL response to earnings, ie the weak sentiment going into earnings, and the reversal and ~10% climb over the past week, I think a similar thing is possible with Fairfax. Lets see. 

Edited November 7, 2025 by Txvestor

[djokovic1]

5 hours ago, treasurehunt said:

The 15% increase is in 3 quarters, not half a year, right? So over 20% annualized. Great report, regardless.

 Whoops 100% you are right

[gfp]

Conference call is on now

[Junior R]

4 minutes ago, gfp said:

Conference call is on now

looking for any major updates will listen to this later on

[Charlie]

I bought 2 shares today. I hope this will increase my focus. 

[gfp]

Someone must have asked them about Wade Burton selling some shares.  Company says he retained 80% of his position and Fairfax bought the shares he sold (for estate planning purposes) in the open market

[netcash1]

Can someone please summarize what $ amount was repurchased during Q3 and post Q3 2025?  than you

[mistakenpoint]

An interesting question raised on the call concerned the potential for prediction markets to disrupt traditional insurance. A non-response was given, but I believe there is a genuine risk here: market makers such as the Jane Street types could use superior models to offer more accurate pricing on certain types of insurance-like risks.

[Junior R]

2 minutes ago, mistakenpoint said:

An interesting question raised on the call concerned the potential for prediction markets to disrupt traditional insurance. A non-response was given, but I believe there is a genuine risk here: market makers such as the Jane Street types could use superior models to offer more accurate pricing on certain types of insurance-like risks.

if the risk is written incorrectly company will go under so there has to be margin of safety

[gfp]

13 minutes ago, netcash1 said:

Can someone please summarize what $ amount was repurchased during Q3 and post Q3 2025?  than you

 

It's something like $674 million USD

[yesman182]

I didn't think I would be able to keep buying below $1600 USD today 

[gary17]

there's an overall market correction happening IMHO.

[adventurer]

4 minutes ago, yesman182 said:

I didn't think I would be able to keep buying below $1600 USD today 

Can`t wait for my next paycheck...