Fairfax 2025

[LC]

4 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

That was a little bit higher than I expected, but not surprised.  I don't see the details yet but it sounds like CR came under the 93.3 CR from the prior Q2, in order to get to $55.90 EPS.

 

[Hoodlum]

2 minutes ago, LC said:

 

 

I must be missing something, but I am not seeing the Ki model playing out as we would have expected.  Fortunately, they are a very small portion of our insurance subs.

[Junior R]

Earnings report https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/11/06/3183272/0/en/Fairfax-Financial-Holdings-Limited-Financial-Results-for-the-Third-Quarter.html

[Junior R]

33 minutes ago, LC said:

https://www.fairfax.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/FFH-2025-Q3-Interim-Report-Final.pdf

 

Reported EPS of $55.90 (vs consensus estimate ~43.xx: where is @Brett Horn?)

@Viking I think you called it - good analysis 

 

Looks like they repurchased 285,144 shares in Q3, and another 107,525 shares post-Sept30.

• Since September 30, 2025 the company has purchased 107,525 of its subordinate voting shares for cancellation at an aggregate cost of $178.4 million or $1,659.19 per share.

[Junior R]

They must have had got instructions to buy back that many shares during blackout ..I think where going see crazy buybacks at these prices 

[Hoodlum]

8 minutes ago, Junior R said:

• Since September 30, 2025 the company has purchased 107,525 of its subordinate voting shares for cancellation at an aggregate cost of $178.4 million or $1,659.19 per share.

 

Adding in the 285k share purchased for cancellation in Q3, they bought back 392k share in past 4 months.

[Hoodlum]

The gain on the EuroLife sale will be $250M in Q1.  There is no specific mention on what the gain was for Praktiker.

 

It looks like half of the 10yr+ bonds ($5B) have now fallen into the 3-5yr duration.  It seems like Fairfax is placing new funds into the 1yr or less treasuries and allowing existing duration bonds run the course.  

[gfp]

Great report, looking forward to the conference call tomorrow morning.  I bought a lot of stock this week

[Hoodlum]

Here are the details of The Keg transaction.  It doesn't mentioned what percentage LFG acquired and at what price.

 

 

On August 13, 2025 the company, through a subsidiary holding company, completed the acquisition of all of the issued and outstanding units of The Keg Royalties Income Fund ("The Keg Fund") that it did not already own for cash consideration of Cdn$18.60 per unit or $150.1 (Cdn$206.5) and recorded the transaction as an asset purchase substantially comprised of the brand name and other intellectual property used in the operation of The Keg restaurants. Subsequently, on September 25, 2025 the company completed a re-organization whereby its subsidiary Keg Restaurants Ltd., which was held through Recipe, amalgamated with the acquirer of The Keg Fund and the amalgamated entity was renamed Keg Restaurants Ltd. ("The Keg"). The company then partnered with a strategic third party who assumed operational control of The Keg by subscribing for shares and entering into a shareholders agreement, resulting in the company deconsolidating the assets and liabilities of The Keg from its non-insurance companies reporting segment and recording its retained interest in The Keg as an investment in associate.

Edited November 6, 2025 by Hoodlum

[Santayana]

Love the pace of the buybacks.  2.5% in one quarter.  Imagine if they keep that up!  Doubt Mr. Market will allow it though.

[Junior R]

3 minutes ago, Santayana said:

Love the pace of the buybacks.  2.5% in one quarter.  Imagine if they keep that up!  Doubt Mr. Market will allow it though.

given the share price they prob can...depends what happens tmr

[Hoodlum]

They were buying as much as they could at <$2400.  So unless there is a big jump tomorrow, the large buybacks will continue.

[Santayana]

Probably in the short term, yes.  I meant more in the over a few years time frame.  Could be down to 15M shares before we know it if that happens.

[gfp]

2 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

They were buying as much as they could at <$2400.  So unless there is a big jump tomorrow, the large buybacks will continue.

 

It's interesting how weak the shares have been trading considering the level of buying Fairfax was doing.  That's a lot of selling I guess 

[Hoodlum]

6 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

It's interesting how weak the shares have been trading considering the level of buying Fairfax was doing.  That's a lot of selling I guess 

 

Probably the same people selling over the past couple week, will buy back later at a higher price.   I guess this is what makes a market.  Some thing will never make sense to me.

[Munger_Disciple]

Very good Q3 report. The only minor negative was the loss on TRS of $61mm. I was hoping they closed/reduced their TRS position. Presumably TRS losses continued to-date in Q4. 

[hardcorevalue]

It's funny I was hoping they would expand the TRS position. 

Shares look like a steal to me here!

[Hoodlum]

Now that we know they plan on buying back the shares in the TRS position, I believe we will see this gradually get closed out as the market softens and Fairfax doesn't have any other placed to use the excess dividends from the subs.

[djokovic1]

On 11/5/2025 at 10:28 PM, djokovic1 said:

My guess is higher than yours -> Accounting EPS will come in ~$50-$55 and economic EPS will be >$60. Let's see!

 

Pretty much bang in line with what I expected and much better than expected by consensus. Long may that continue!

Also book value increased 15% in half a year...well thats 30%+ annualised

Edited November 6, 2025 by djokovic1

[LC]

1 hour ago, Hoodlum said:

 

I must be missing something, but I am not seeing the Ki model playing out as we would have expected.  Fortunately, they are a very small portion of our insurance subs.

 

I wonder if it's an issue of scale?

 

I'd imagine given their digital-first nature and relatively small size, they could make pricing/underwriting decisions quickly if they were writing what are ultimately unprofitable deals. 

[glider3834]

1 hour ago, Hoodlum said:

 

I must be missing something, but I am not seeing the Ki model playing out as we would have expected.  Fortunately, they are a very small portion of our insurance subs.

they are investing in Ki to build out tech & operations which is impacting underwriting exp ratio but they haven't broken out figures 

 

Edited November 6, 2025 by glider3834

[Duke In Shadows]

*friday

[Viking]

So much to talk about. This might be the most important new piece of news.

 

Fairfax has 5 income streams. The smallest is 'non-insurance consolidated companies'. I have been calling for this bucket to break out to the upside for 2 years. And I have been wrong. However, in Q2 it came in at $120 million which was quite strong (compared to past results).

 

Well, I think we can now say it is not small anymore, coming in at $211m in Q3-2025.

 

This is a big deal. What is a new income stream of $800 million/year (with a strong growth profile) worth? Just asking for a friend... 

 

PS: I am not sure if any of you have heard of a company called Berkshire Hathaway? You might want to take a peek at how they continued to grow their business over the long term... hint - it wasn't driven by the insurance cycle. I.E. they continued to grow in both hard and soft insurance markets. 

 

Edited November 6, 2025 by Viking

[Thrifty3000]

29 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

It's interesting how weak the shares have been trading considering the level of buying Fairfax was doing.  That's a lot of selling I guess 

According to Grok (which I take with barely a grain of salt) 20% to 30% of daily FFH volume is likely quants/HFTs, etc. Those guys thrive on momentum, so I assume they’ve been driving the price action. No matter what the reason I love FFH being able to sop up shares down here. What a gift. 

Edited November 6, 2025 by Thrifty3000

[Junior R]

10 minutes ago, Bridgington Holdings said:

*friday

Did you create that?