Fairfax 2025

[Jaygo]

3 minutes ago, hardcorevalue said:

I'm one of the few that are hoping the shares to collapse, like a massive drawdown. 

 

I want to own more of this company.

It's very frustrating having it hold up so well. 

 

Lol that's generally how I feel about my companies but only when I know them really, really well so I dont panic and sell. For some reason I dont wish that for Fairfax though. I guess I just dont want to see my gains float away at this point

 

 

[gfp]

7 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

This is one of the issues Viking speaks of quite often; if the long term future of the company is bright, why not own it now?  If you wait for a significant price drop that may not happen, you may never own the stock.  The issue is whether the stock is worth owning at its current price.

Oh I'm sure he owns it now.

[MMM20]

12 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

This is one of the issues Viking speaks of quite often; if the long term future of the company is bright, why not own it now?  If you wait for a significant price drop that may not happen, you may never own the stock.  The issue is whether the stock is worth owning at its current price.

 

It's a sizing question more than a binary one.

[hardcorevalue]

I own plenty but too much of a good thing can be wonderful. 

[villainx]

1 hour ago, hardcorevalue said:

I own plenty but too much of a good thing can be wonderful. 

 

Unfortunate state of having a good thing, it's good.

 

 

[Viking]

Volatility is a GREAT THING for Fairfax. We all should be praying for crazy volatility to happen. That is when Fairfax (and all value investors) get their best opportunities. 
 

The difference today is Fairfax is all cashed up. Investors in Fairfax should be praying for a shitstorm. Especially given how Fairfax is situated today. 
 

Fairfax’s best moves over the past 5 years (the needle movers) all were made when the shit was hitting the fan. Bring it on I say  

 

If we get extreme volatility my return expectations for Fairfax will go up. And the stock will likely sell off. A great combo. 
 

Yes, it matters what they do. But their recent track record is very good. 

Edited Friday at 12:14 AM by Viking

[TwoCitiesCapital]

9 minutes ago, Viking said:

Volatility is a GREAT THING for Fairfax. We all should be praying for crazy volatility to happen. That is when Fairfax (and all value investors) get their best opportunities. 
 

The difference today is Fairfax is all cashed up. Investors in Fairfax should be praying for a shitstorm. Especially given how Fairfax is situated today. 
 

Fairfax’s best moves over the past 5 years (the needle movers) all were made when the shit was hitting the fan. Bring it on I say  

 

If we get extreme volatility my return expectations for Fairfax will go up. Yes, it matters what they do. But their recent track record is very good. 

 

+1 

 

Would love to see them move from 3-4 year treasuries to IG corporates and other higher yielding opportunities if/when spreads blow out. We could easily get 50% more income locked in on a scenario like that. 

 

 

 

[Crip1]

12 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

This is one of the issues Viking speaks of quite often; if the long term future of the company is bright, why not own it now?  If you wait for a significant price drop that may not happen, you may never own the stock.  The issue is whether the stock is worth owning at its current price.

Fairfax is my largest holding...3X my number 2 holding. That said, I am strongly contemplating buying more. Just not finding anything that, at current prices, I want to own more than FFH.

 

-Crip

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, Crip1 said:

Fairfax is my largest holding...3X my number 2 holding. That said, I am strongly contemplating buying more. Just not finding anything that, at current prices, I want to own more than FFH.

 

-Crip

Does the potential announcement tomorrow that it will be added to the 60 impact your decision making? I bought a bunch in January and February because I thinks the odds of the 60 add are good  which could result in long lasting multiple expansion and the number of potential lottery tickets seemed to keep growing. Maybe I’m too excited about BIAL, Ki and optionality of the portfolio. It was my way of getting more defensive to a certain extent because it’s more bonds per share than the share price and buy the dip is built in. 

 

It’s now 5x+ my second biggest holding which is a gold stock (Mako Mining MKO.V). I’m guessing that is unique on this board and definitely not recommended although I appreciated Ian Cassel saying that he also owns a junior gold stock and had a 9x during the last bull market for gold stocks 20 years ago. Everyone is so focused on what could go wrong the margin of safety is off kilter. <2% positions make more sense than my 9%+ position but I feel comfortable being able to sidecar the with Wexford Capital which owns ~48% especially at what I perceive as a nonsensical discount to expected value. In that regard, similar to Fairfax!

[73 Reds]

10 hours ago, Crip1 said:

Fairfax is my largest holding...3X my number 2 holding. That said, I am strongly contemplating buying more. Just not finding anything that, at current prices, I want to own more than FFH.

 

-Crip

Yeah, they just seem to be doing everything right.  It's not often you can say that about any stock.  Hope it continues.  

[Crip1]

9 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Does the potential announcement tomorrow that it will be added to the 60 impact your decision making? I bought a bunch in January and February because I thinks the odds of the 60 add are good  which could result in long lasting multiple expansion and the number of potential lottery tickets seemed to keep growing. Maybe I’m too excited about BIAL, Ki and optionality of the portfolio. It was my way of getting more defensive to a certain extent because it’s more bonds per share than the share price and buy the dip is built in. 

 

It’s now 5x+ my second biggest holding which is a gold stock (Mako Mining MKO.V). I’m guessing that is unique on this board and definitely not recommended although I appreciated Ian Cassel saying that he also owns a junior gold stock and had a 9x during the last bull market for gold stocks 20 years ago. Everyone is so focused on what could go wrong the margin of safety is off kilter. <2% positions make more sense than my 9%+ position but I feel comfortable being able to sidecar the with Wexford Capital which owns ~48% especially at what I perceive as a nonsensical discount to expected value. In that regard, similar to Fairfax!

Inclusion in an index has zero impact on my decision. The reason to add is pretty simple 5 years from now I think Fairfax will be worth a lot more than it is now. I feel similarly about Berkshire, Johnson Johnson, and some others, but Fairfax looks to be set up for a higher increase in value. Stock price normally follows an increase in value.

 

-Crip

[SafetyinNumbers]

2 minutes ago, Crip1 said:

Inclusion in an index has zero impact on my decision. The reason to add is pretty simple 5 years from now I think Fairfax will be worth a lot more than it is now. I feel similarly about Berkshire, Johnson Johnson, and some others, but Fairfax looks to be set up for a higher increase in value. Stock price normally follows an increase in value.

 

-Crip

It doesn’t impact the timing of your purchases at all?

[Crip1]

15 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

It doesn’t impact the timing of your purchases at all?

No

 

-Crip

[villainx]

57 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

It doesn’t impact the timing of your purchases at all?

 

If I known it was today/tomorrow, I would have purchased this week!  Or last.  

[dartmonkey]

48 minutes ago, villainx said:

 

If I known it was today/tomorrow, I would have purchased this week!  Or last.  

Then it's not too late - at $1420 the price is a little lower than the average price over the last 2 weeks. There's no discernable influence from the timing of the possible index add. I bought a few more shares, based on what seems like a reasonable possibility that they will be worth 5-10% more next week.

 

 

[gfp]

Is tonight the annual letter / annual report?

[Maverick47]

10 minutes ago, gfp said:

Is tonight the annual letter / annual report?

Yes, at least that is what the analysts were told on the latest conference call.

[villainx]

4 hours ago, dartmonkey said:

Then it's not too late - at $1420 the price is a little lower than the average price over the last 2 weeks.

I am slight impaired by one of those bad pricing biases where I could have bought for a dollar less x days ago. 
 

 

[gfp]

1 minute ago, villainx said:

I am slight impaired by one of those bad pricing biases where I could have bought for a dollar less x days ago. 
 

 

 

I got some today at ($ USD) 1409.69 and 1412 per share.  If I can be this mentally flexible you all can

[SafetyinNumbers]

7 hours ago, Crip1 said:

No

 

-Crip

I think it’s logical to buy ahead of potential price insensitive buying but apparently most investors share your perspective which I don’t understand but that’s what makes a market.

[gfp]

Fairfax_Financial_2024_Annual_Report_SEDAR.pdf

[Hoodlum]

It looks like the AGT Rail sale did go through in January, likely just before the Tariffs became more known.  It doesn't look like there will be a dividend but instead money will be used to pay debt.

 

"In early 2025, AGT completed another important step in their transformation by selling its Canadian rail and infrastructure assets for proceeds of Cdn$192 million. The deal provides AGT with the use of the rail assets under a long-term supply agreement. The sale proceeds will be used primarily for debt reduction and optimization of the company’s capital structure. These developments have led to stronger free cash flow and value creation. AGT’s global pulse sourcing and processing capability is also expected to become increasingly valuable as the total addressable market for plant-based protein expands. Fairfax’s 66% stake in AGT is currently carried at an enterprise-to-EBITDA ratio of 6x"

[Hoodlum]

Jenn has a new role at Fairfax.  It will be interesting to see how this new role evolves.

 

https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/executive-announcements-2025-03-07/

 

We are thrilled that Jenn will continue with Fairfax by serving in her new role as Chief Business Officer where she will work on key strategic initiatives designed to support our growth, while ensuring her successor, Amy, is well supported in her transition.

Edit: A bit more from the Annual report

Jenn’s experience will be a huge asset as she transitions into a new role at Fairfax, working with Peter Clarke and the other executives of Fairfax on key strategic initiatives designed to support the company’s growth and increased complexity, while ensuring her successor, Amy Sherk, is well supported in her transition.

Edited Friday at 09:55 PM by Hoodlum

[Junior R]

I think someone asked about treasury shares before

 

Quote

We continue to encourage all our employees to be shareholders of Fairfax. We think it will be a great investment for them over the long term and great for the company to have our employees as shareholders in the company. After all, no one washes a rental car! As part of that initiative, close to 10 years ago we decided to have a general principle that our annual bonuses to senior executives across the company would be awarded 50% in cash and 50% FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LIMITED 8 in Fairfax shares that vest in five years. As these bonus shares are awarded, the company buys the shares in the market (which comes out of shares outstanding) and they are recorded as treasury shares, as shown in the table below. As the shares are vested and or exercised, the shares are then reissued and come out of treasury shares and back into shares outstanding. You can see over the years our treasury shares have increased from approximately 400,000 to almost 2 million today – we think this is fantastic and hope they continue to grow over time. You will notice that the treasury shares acquired have remained relatively consistent over the last 10-year period especially when compared to our increased employee numbers. Our total compensation, including benefits, paid to our employees worldwide was $2.6 billion in 2024 of which $240 million was awarded in Fairfax shares. As I have said in the past, we would love to have all our employees as owners of Fairfax. Of course, no new shares are issued for these plans. They are all bought in the market

 

[Junior R]

Quote

Vinodh had a cardiac arrest because he did not know that one of his arteries was 99% blocked and needed a stent. Because of Vinodh, we have initiated a simple testing of the heart across all our companies in the world for any employee 50 years or older and their spouse. Already, we have saved about 10 employees in North America who needed a stent and didn’t know about it. Vinodh’s legacy!