Luke Posted November 27 Posted November 27 Thoughts on Tepper betting big on China? Does anyone know his track record long term and how they invest? Is he actively managing the fund still or does he run a team etc? Added some more to PDD yesterday and still thinking if i should go deeper into China as long as the valuations are so depressed...
Spekulatius Posted November 27 Posted November 27 I think PDD is a good recovery bet, even though ai have some concerns. (No CFO). I do think it’s more likely to bounce than BABA which seems to be more mired in restructuring. It does seem like PDD days of rapid growth are over but they can switch to start returning cash to shareholders.
sleepydragon Posted November 27 Posted November 27 17 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: I think PDD is a good recovery bet, even though ai have some concerns. (No CFO). I do think it’s more likely to bounce than BABA which seems to be more mired in restructuring. It does seem like PDD days of rapid growth are over but they can switch to start returning cash to shareholders. duan yong ping , who’s close to PDD founder, added to PDD while selling baba.
Junior R Posted November 27 Posted November 27 Taiwan is the wildcard with China stocks...If that wasn't the issue those stocks above are undervalued
Dinar Posted November 27 Posted November 27 33 minutes ago, Luke said: Thoughts on Tepper betting big on China? Does anyone know his track record long term and how they invest? Is he actively managing the fund still or does he run a team etc? Added some more to PDD yesterday and still thinking if i should go deeper into China as long as the valuations are so depressed... David Tepper has an incredible track record, I think I heard somewhere 20-30% per year (after fees) over several decades. He is a trader though. Historically he was an investor in distressed companies.
UK Posted November 27 Posted November 27 4 hours ago, Luke said: Thoughts on Tepper betting big on China? Does anyone know his track record long term and how they invest? Is he actively managing the fund still or does he run a team etc? Added some more to PDD yesterday and still thinking if i should go deeper into China as long as the valuations are so depressed... I think he is a very good investor with a very good track record, but more like Druckenmiller, so perhaps he also could change his mind very quickly. You do not need him to see that China stocks are quite dirty cheap though. But for me personally, especially in terms of high conviction bets, they remain in not good sleep territory, because of all these non fundamendal questions. Could be a mistake, but I am still mostly only watching.
Spekulatius Posted November 27 Posted November 27 (edited) I think the right approach is to regard Chinese stocks as a trade and control risk with position size. Edited November 27 by Spekulatius
Luke Posted November 27 Author Posted November 27 1 hour ago, Paarslaars said: Or balls to wall in leaps right Luke? Yeah, you always have to remember that many members on this board are 50+ and have a different mindset regarding risk and opportunity. If you want to get wealthy and you are young, betting big is the way to do it Nobody with 30 years of working salary in his portfolio will go 50% in one stock so thats just a different view (or most of them :D). Munger probably still would haha!
Gamecock-YT Posted November 28 Posted November 28 Hope it’s better than his management of his sports teams
Spekulatius Posted November 28 Posted November 28 (edited) Everyone talks about Teppers China bet , but he also took a position Lyft. Lyft is a nice turnaround story that he seems to have caught perfectly. Edited November 29 by Spekulatius
dpetrescu Posted November 29 Posted November 29 11 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Everyone talks about steppers China bet , but he also took a position Lyft. Lyft is a nice turnaround story that he seems to have caught perfectly. Black Friday sale came early for Chinese tech. I started loading up on some Chinese tech LEAPs due 2027 - now some BABA remaining from last year, little PDD, and quite a bunch of BIDU and JD. I figure it would be nice if they all drop 30% near term. I could double down once, maybe get some 2028 LEAPs next year. I do realize there is a decent chance these stay stagnant for many more years and some chance 2027 LEAPs could turn out to be worth zero. Not a high conviction investment for me - more of a cheap and good chance of double with 10x possible return via LEAPs. And even if that happens, they could still potentially be undervalued after.
WFF Posted November 29 Posted November 29 On 11/27/2024 at 8:55 AM, sleepydragon said: duan yong ping , who’s close to PDD founder, added to PDD while selling baba. Mr. Duan also says he doesn’t quite understand PDD and doesn’t really recommend it. It’s just a tracking position. It is likely he got put into these positions, as he previously stated he wanted to sell more puts prior to the stimulus spike in Tencent and PDD. He actually shares quite a bit on snowball and Weibo, for those that read Chinese.
Luke Posted November 29 Author Posted November 29 20 minutes ago, WFF said: Mr. Duan also says he doesn’t quite understand PDD and doesn’t really recommend it. It’s just a tracking position. It is likely he got put into these positions, as he previously stated he wanted to sell more puts prior to the stimulus spike in Tencent and PDD. He actually shares quite a bit on snowball and Weibo, for those that read Chinese. Could you share where he said that he doesnt quite understand PDD?
Spekulatius Posted November 29 Posted November 29 (edited) 4 hours ago, Luke said: Could you share where he said that he doesnt quite understand PDD? Does anyone here really understand PDD on a deep enough level and why it can keep growing? It matters more now because sequential growth has come a screeching halt, no capital returns, no CFO. It’s as black of a box that I have ever seen. Everyone can see that the numbers look good and the valuation is cheap, but that doesn’t mean one understands the business and if their competitive advantage has just become much smaller. Edited November 29 by Spekulatius
Milu Posted November 29 Posted November 29 34 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: Does anyone here really understand PDD on a deep enough level and why it can keep growing? It matters more now because sequential growth has come a screeching halt, no capital returns, no CFO. It’s as black of a box that I have ever seen. Everyone can see that the numbers look good and the valuation is cheap, but that doesn’t mean one understands the business and if their competitive advantage has just become much smaller. That one of the main reasons why I have avoided investing in Chinese companies. Sure their numbers may looks good in their financial statements but I don’t have feet on the ground in china, don’t know who the founders are or feel like I have the ability to get to know them well through podcasts or earnings call, and no real sense of how their perceived or actual moats are increasing or eroding.
WFF Posted November 29 Posted November 29 (edited) 5 hours ago, Luke said: Could you share where he said that he doesnt quite understand PDD? This account belongs to Duan Edited November 29 by WFF Add more examples
Luke Posted November 29 Author Posted November 29 3 hours ago, WFF said: This account belongs to Duan Thanks!
bennycx Posted December 1 Posted December 1 On 11/29/2024 at 1:09 PM, dpetrescu said: Black Friday sale came early for Chinese tech. I started loading up on some Chinese tech LEAPs due 2027 - now some BABA remaining from last year, little PDD, and quite a bunch of BIDU and JD. I figure it would be nice if they all drop 30% near term. I could double down once, maybe get some 2028 LEAPs next year. I do realize there is a decent chance these stay stagnant for many more years and some chance 2027 LEAPs could turn out to be worth zero. Not a high conviction investment for me - more of a cheap and good chance of double with 10x possible return via LEAPs. And even if that happens, they could still potentially be undervalued after. What are the prices/IV of the 3 year LEAPS for BABA?
dpetrescu Posted December 2 Posted December 2 It’s just 2-years and a few months for the 2027 LEAPs. Good question - IV is all that matters, it’s the true measure of options cost. Nothing else matters. BIDU options prices are pretty cheap at 33 IV. JD used to have an IV of 50, it’s now about 43 I think - lower but a little expensive.
dpetrescu Posted December 2 Posted December 2 On 11/29/2024 at 11:21 AM, Spekulatius said: Does anyone here really understand PDD on a deep enough level and why it can keep growing? It matters more now because sequential growth has come a screeching halt, no capital returns, no CFO. It’s as black of a box that I have ever seen. Everyone can see that the numbers look good and the valuation is cheap, but that doesn’t mean one understands the business and if their competitive advantage has just become much smaller. I admit I don’t understand it. The numbers just look so good. How can a company growing earnings 100% YOY one quarter then grow earnings 50% YOY the next quarter. And then the market takes it down 20% and gives it a valuation of a PE of 8. This just seems silly. It’s a tiny position for me. If it’s not a scam or illusion and someone does understand this company there could make a lot here. But for me I’m just in it for a little gain
bennycx Posted December 2 Posted December 2 1 hour ago, dpetrescu said: It’s just 2-years and a few months for the 2027 LEAPs. Good question - IV is all that matters, it’s the true measure of options cost. Nothing else matters. BIDU options prices are pretty cheap at 33 IV. JD used to have an IV of 50, it’s now about 43 I think - lower but a little expensive. Thank you
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now