President-Elect Trump trades

[dealraker]

Heck guys...we've likely got it made for 4 full years coming!  The deficit and debt will disappear now - off limits for discussion - and it is off to the races.  "Assets" with little or no rev/profit will continue to dominate and Mr. Market will 100% believe................."analysts" are briefed (i.e. told precisely what is selling to be sell) each morning and the excitement is going parabolic.

 

1996?  Could be.  But my guess is that as DJT (both the stock and the man) and pals loot the system Mr. Market is actually in charge.  Mr. Market?  This dude...well let's just say he can be just about anything  he wants - and tends to do a manic depressive dance at times.

 

 

[Buckeye]

1 minute ago, Sweet said:

 

Convicted yes.  Was it an actual crime... debatable.  Could be overturned.

Oh great, here we go. Sweet, are you (and Reds) going to help explain to us how white collar crime works and how the law interprets it? It is my understanding that the law around white collar crime is extremely esoteric. And when it happens in NY, the financial hub of the world, they take it seriously. Because that’s what makes it the financial capital of the world.

 

Maybe if Trumpy did some of these shenanigans in another state it wouldn’t be such a big deal. But when you do it in NY you better play by the rules. 

[dealraker]

And Rupert tells his buds, "I may have lost my company...but I own the US!"  And then he Snickers, "I even own one of the Kennedy's!"

 

Life is great...if you can stand it.

[Vish_ram]

1 hour ago, Buckeye said:

Hello Paar. Thank you for your reply. It sounds like you agree with my premise that the ONLY way Bitcoin increases in price/value is with increased adoption. 
 

And you also have been correct that this has been, and may continue to be, a Trump trade, so I will give you that. 
 

The last paragraph of your post is not completely accurate, IMO. Sure, one way for me, or any other BRK shareholder to make money on BRK is for them crush earnings, and then hopefully have the share price rise in value.  However, what you failed to recognize is that this is not the only way to make money with BRK. If I am holder of BRK and the price of the share does not increase , or even if it decreases, I and any other BRK can still make money. Because with a flat, or lower share price, at some point BRK will own all (or most of the remaining shares) and the cash flows that are still incoming will flow in greater quantities to the few of us remaining shareholders. Can’t say that with Bitcoin, can you? That is a big difference between the two is all that I am saying. 
 

This discussion reminds me of Buffet’s comment about buying what you would be ok owning if the market were to shut down for 10 years. Under that scenario, are you good with holding a large portion of your wealth in Bitcoin?  If so, any guesses what it would be worth after year 5?  Or year 10? I would be completely ok with holding BRK for 10 years even if it didn’t trade, or if I couldn’t trade it. 

BTC is anti-Fed, anti-liquidity, anti-US debt and anti-dollar.

 

if market is shut down I’ll know that real inflation for middle/upper class is 7% and BTC goes up by that.

 

say you’ve a Picasso painting. The increased value over time is a function of wealth creation, inflation etc. Not just increased interest. It also helps though.

 

when a CoBF bear starts buying BTC we are probably in the 9th innings.

 

 

My thoughts on cryptocurrencies.pdf

Edited November 11 by Vish_ram

[73 Reds]

9 hours ago, Buckeye said:

So you are comparing your relationship to your friends and family to Bitcoin? 

My original point/question was…what causes Bitcoin to rise in price/value? Is it only getting more people to want it, buy it, store it? If so, Ok.  Then someone like you, who I presume owns Bitcoin, has a vested interest in getting as many people as possible interested in wanting it, buying it and storing it. 

 

With a stock like BRK or FRFH, you don’t need to try to encourage more people to buy it. Viking has been pounding the table on FRFH (very thankfully for me), but as a shareholder he has no vested interest in other people wanting it or buying it. He doesn’t care if nobody buys it, because FRFH surely will. 
 

That’s what’s weird to me. 

 

 

The answer to your question is supply and demand.  But that is not the issue with BTC.  The issue is, how do you measure its value?  At present, you don't because you can't.  Therefore, anyone who purchases BTC is speculating that a greater fool will pay more for it than you did.  Nothing wrong with that of course and Wall Street will market anything that will make money. 

Edited November 11 by 73 Reds
spelling

[Blake Hampton]

- Trump is a fraud committing felon

- BTC will be worthless the second people need cash

[Blake Hampton]

1 hour ago, dealraker said:

But my guess is that as DJT (both the stock and the man) and pals loot the system Mr. Market is actually in charge.  Mr. Market?  This dude...well let's just say he can be just about anything  he wants - and tends to do a manic depressive dance at times.

 

 

This is wisdom

[backtothebeach]

$130,000 for 34 felonies, man that's cheap. Only $3,824 per felony!

 

Should have just used cash!

 

Just kidding guys, I appreciate both sides here, those that think he's a fraud and a criminal, and those that don't give a shit if he manages to fix immigration, wars etc. (BIG if!!)
 

Edited November 11 by backtothebeach

[Buckeye]

1 hour ago, dealraker said:

Heck guys...we've likely got it made for 4 full years coming!  The deficit and debt will disappear now - off limits for discussion - and it is off to the races.  "Assets" with little or no rev/profit will continue to dominate and Mr. Market will 100% believe................."analysts" are briefed (i.e. told precisely what is selling to be sell) each morning and the excitement is going parabolic.

 

1996?  Could be.  But my guess is that as DJT (both the stock and the man) and pals loot the system Mr. Market is actually in charge.  Mr. Market?  This dude...well let's just say he can be just about anything  he wants - and tends to do a manic depressive dance at times.

 

 

 - Good Ol' Dealraker cutting right to the point!

[Luke]

8 hours ago, Buckeye said:

Aside from all of the mumbo-jumbo about how Mr. Buffet and Mr. Munger have no clue, do you understand that you (and anyone else on this forum who owns Bitcoin) have a vested interest in more people owning Bitcoin? Because getting more people to want and buy Bitcoin is the only way it increases in price/value, correct? It’s almost like you are a paid spokesperson for Bitcoin. 

Very good observation. Thats a phenomenon for crypto itself-> owners become recruiters for new buyers-> price goes up->they are reinforced that this is "legit"->new buyers repeat sharing the prophecy->repeat. All based on a simple story embedded in mythological language. The new price target gets ever adjusted upwards until grandma buys in

 

Stay sane @Buckeye

Edited November 11 by Luke

[Buckeye]

Ok so just to recap Bitcoin...we've now heard from all of the paid advertisements on this thread that...

 

1. Bitcoin is just like gold!....Gold has been around for generations and Bitcoin has been around for 15 years!  Huh, thats interesting, ok.  My 2009 4Runner has been around for 15 years I guess it's like gold too!  

 

2. Bitcoin is just like a currency!...even though most currencies are backed by the full faith of their governments.  Thankfully we have the US Military to protect our interests in the US Dollar.  Bitcoin has the Bitcoin Bros to defend it...you can see it in this thread.

 

3.  Bitcoin is like your friend's and family!...except your friends and family will be there to laugh with you, to cry with you, to support you when you need it, to take you to the doctor, to enjoy a ball game or concert with you.  Please let me know when Bitcoin can do any of that.

 

4.  Bitcoin is just like a Picasso painting!...except a Picasso painting is absolutely gorgeous to look at (if you're into artwork) and they are one of a kind/very limited in quantity.  And before you Bros reply that...see Picasso's are limited in quantity...just like Bitcoin!...the turd that I just flushed down the toilet was one of a kind, but I am pretty sure it doesn't have much value:)  

 

5.  And then the grand daddy of them all...Bitcoin is going to be so valuable when the value of the US Dollar and the entire US financial system collapses!  So your investment thesis rely's upon the collapse of the US financial system?  And you as a owner of Bitcoin now have a vested interest in that collapse. As an American that is super weird to me.

Edited November 11 by Buckeye

[Buckeye]

10 minutes ago, Luke said:

Very good observation. Thats a phenomenon for crypto itself-> owners become recruiters for new buyers-> price goes up->they are reinforced that this is "legit"->new buyers repeat sharing the prophecy->repeat. All based on a simple story embedded in mythological language. The new price target gets ever adjusted upwards until grandma buys in

 

Stay sane @Buckeye

Thanks Luke! 

[Sweet]

2 hours ago, Buckeye said:

Oh great, here we go. Sweet, are you (and Reds) going to help explain to us how white collar crime works and how the law interprets it? It is my understanding that the law around white collar crime is extremely esoteric. And when it happens in NY, the financial hub of the world, they take it seriously. Because that’s what makes it the financial capital of the world.

 

Maybe if Trumpy did some of these shenanigans in another state it wouldn’t be such a big deal. But when you do it in NY you better play by the rules. 

 

Buckeye, I am from the UK not the US. 

 

In the UK we have people doing time in jail for social media posts, you can read about the three-year jail term this fella received here: "'Keyboard warrior' jailed for part in UK disorder" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y3gre3y9yo

 

We have another person, Lucy Letby, convicted of killing many young babies in a hospital, since her conviction many experts have cast doubt on the evidence used to convict her.  I don't know if she is guilty or not but I am illustrating this point.

 

What is a crime, what is not, is there a miscarriage of justice, what the punishment should be - that should be up for debate in both your country and mine.  We are democracies, in democracies we discuss and question the verdicts of judges.  It's important we can have those discussion.  It's a live discussion in the UK right now, many including myself believe there are people in jail in the UK today that should not be.

 

Back to Trump.  He was convicted for a hush money payment to Daniels because it was viewed as an undeclared campaign expense.  This despite the fact that Trump has a long history of paying hush money long before he ran for president: "Donald Trump's Long History of Paying for Silence" (https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/01/donald-trumps-long-history-with-hush-money/550745/).  And that's the grey area, would he have made this payment if he weren't running for president, if the answer is yes then there is no case to answer for.  If you don't know the specifics of this case how can you be so sure of yourself?

 

 

Edited November 11 by Sweet

[james22]

You'll buy bitcoin at the price you deserve, Buckeye.

[Buckeye]

4 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

That goes for every post in investment ideas when the poster is also a shareholder.

I want to reiterate here, because I have a feeling Paar won't follow up on this message, this statement is  false. And this statement is a huge disservice to the amazing forum members who share their thoughts/research on those threads.

 

Let's take Viking for example.  Viking has been SO VERY KIND to continue to share his detailed analysis on FRFHF.  And many of the members (like me), who have followed Viking into this stock have been handsomely rewarded!  Thank you so much Viking for all of your thoughtful posts!  And thank you to Sanjeev, Gfp, Deal, Greg, Ericopoly, Boilermaker, Spek, Gio, John Hjorth, Packer, Wabuffo, Sleepy, Morgan, Dalal and the many other incredible forum members who take the time to share their thoughts on the Investment thread!

 

But the one difference between Viking and any of the Bitcoin Bros, is that at the end of the day, Viking doesn't care if any more people buy into the story.  If anything he would prefer less people buy into the story (I assume), which would give him the opportunity to buy shares at a lower price.  Thank you again Viking for all that you do!      

Edited November 11 by Buckeye

[james22]

I promise you, Buckeye, IDGAF if you buy into the story.

[Luke]

1 hour ago, Buckeye said:

Ok so just to recap Bitcoin...we've now heard from all of the paid advertisements on this thread that...

 

1. Bitcoin is just like gold!....Gold has been around for generations and Bitcoin has been around for 15 years!  Huh, thats interesting, ok.  My 2009 4Runner has been around for 15 years I guess it's like gold too!  

 

2. Bitcoin is just like a currency!...even though most currencies are backed by the full faith of their governments.  Thankfully we have the US Military to protect our interests in the US Dollar.  Bitcoin has the Bitcoin Bros to defend it...you can see it in this thread.

 

3.  Bitcoin is like your friend's and family!...except your friends and family will be there to laugh with you, to cry with you, to support you when you need it, to take you to the doctor, to enjoy a ball game or concert with you.  Please let me know when Bitcoin can do any of that.

 

4.  Bitcoin is just like a Picasso painting!...except a Picasso painting is absolutely gorgeous to look at (if you're into artwork) and they are one of a kind/very limited in quantity.  And before you Bros reply that...see Picasso's are limited in quantity...just like Bitcoin!...the turd that I just flushed down the toilet was one of a kind, but I am pretty sure it doesn't have much value:)  

 

5.  And then the grand daddy of them all...Bitcoin is going to be so valuable when the value of the US Dollar and the entire US financial system collapses!  So your investment thesis rely's upon the collapse of the US financial system?  And you as a owner of Bitcoin now have a vested interest in that collapse. As an American that is super weird to me.

Yep, well said.

 

I'll add a few more problems why bitcoin bros don't see the full picture:

 

6. Loss of monetary policy control-> can't influence interest rates to influence borrowing, spending, and investment, which is absolutely essential in our economies.

 

7. Control inflation or deflation-> bitcoin has fixed supply, if there are supply chain shocks like during covid your economy gets killed without being able to counteract against it.

 

8. Currencies were never thought of as an investment or that you can retain the purchasing power over decades. Businesses were.

 

9. Not being able to inject liquidity into the system in times of recession, especially not if there are some freaks like Micheal Saylor who control too much of the supply and then basically control huge swaths of the economy and essentially control others, which goes against democracy.

 

10. Price volatility makes it impossible for businesses and consumers to plan for the future with holding it for too long. The crypto bros themselves are giving a perfect reason why this sort of gambling around the currency is problematic: CRYPTO this way has a BUILT IN deflationary bias which results in this current hoarding behavior which is fatal because you guys should be buying nintendo games, coca cola and the latest iPhone and not hoarding everything in bitcoin!

 

So Munger is right, there is a lot of delusion!

 

 

Edited November 11 by Luke

[Buckeye]

31 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 

Buckeye, I am from the UK not the US. 

 

In the UK we have people doing time in jail for social media posts, you can read about the three-year jail term this fella received here: "'Keyboard warrior' jailed for part in UK disorder" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y3gre3y9yo

 

We have another person, Lucy Letby, convicted of killing many young babies in a hospital, since her conviction many experts have cast doubt on the evidence used to convict her.  I don't know if she is guilty or not but I am illustrating this point.

 

What is a crime, what is not, is there a miscarriage of justice, what the punishment should be - that should be up for debate in both your country and mine.  We are democracies, in democracies we discuss and question the verdicts of judges.  It's important we can have those discussion.  It's a live discussion in the UK right now, many including myself believe there are people in jail in the UK today that should not be.

 

Back to Trump.  He was convicted for a hush money payment to Daniels because it was viewed as an undeclared campaign expense.  This despite the fact that Trump has a long history of paying hush money long before he ran for president: "Donald Trump's Long History of Paying for Silence" (https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/01/donald-trumps-long-history-with-hush-money/550745/).  And that's the grey area, would he have made this payment if he weren't running for president, if the answer is yes then there is no case to answer for.  If you don't know the specifics of this case how can you be so sure of yourself?

 

 

Ok so you're not going to explain to us the intricacies of white collar crime, when committed in the State of NY?  That's all I am asking. You started your post by bringing up the legality of what Donald Trump has done.  All I said was that it was my understanding that white collar crime, when committed in the State of NY is serious business.  And it is also my understanding that the interpretation of those laws is extremely esoteric.  Thats all.  Can anyone dispute either of those two sayings?

 

You replied (gaslighted) with...well here in the UK we have a person who is in jail because of social media posts and another lady who is in jail for killing a bunch of babies, but we're not sure if she did it.  Not sure how that's relevant to Donald Trump paying hush money to a porn star in NY but ok, you are free to go with that defense.  

 

You also mention that we are here to "discuss and question the verdicts of judges", when Donald Trump was convicted by a jury of his peers...further showing that you maybe don't have a clear understanding of the law.   

 

And then your big closing argument is "yea but Donald Trump has a long history of paying hush money."  So that makes it legal?  And you do realize that when one is running for the highest-level of office, in the most powerful country on Earth, that they will be held to higher legal standard?

 

All I was trying to say was that the law (especially around white-collar crime) is extremely complicated, and before we all start playing lawyer on this forum, we should recognize that.  

[Luke]

4 minutes ago, james22 said:

I promise you, Buckeye, IDGAF if you buy into the story.

You dont give a f if buckeye buys but you give one so that millions of americans or citizens of other nations buy it. Essentially at some point everyone has some stake in bitcoin following the herd. And politicians dont want to hurt their voters, especially not if they all own bitcoin so there are quite the incentives in place to keep the mania going, certainly wouldnt like to short this...but also...its based on nothing but air and a story that doesnt make sense.

[Luke]

3 minutes ago, Luke said:

And politicians dont want to hurt their voters, especially not if they all own bitcoin so there are quite the incentives in place to keep the mania going, certainly wouldnt like to short this...but also...its based on nothing but air and a story that doesnt make sense.

And this goes straight back to the topic of the thread: Trump trades. Trump wont regulate bitcoin! If he is stupid then he will give in to the promoters but that should cause the US harm long-term. So no, bitcoin or any crypto is not something i would go long with trump being the president for the next 4 years!

[Buckeye]

3 minutes ago, james22 said:

I promise you, Buckeye, IDGAF if you buy into the story.

I know you don't personally care if I buy into the story, but you surely DGAF that someone buys into the story!  Getting more people into the boat is the central thesis to your "investment."  I saw you recently posted a story in the Crypto thread talking about..."Donald Trump is going set up a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve to start buying Bitcoin!"  That excites you as a possibility because getting more buyers is the only way your Bitcoin (and wealth) will increase in value.

[Buckeye]

6 minutes ago, Luke said:

You dont give a f if buckeye buys but you give one so that millions of americans or citizens of other nations buy it. Essentially at some point everyone has some stake in bitcoin following the herd. And politicians dont want to hurt their voters, especially not if they all own bitcoin so there are quite the incentives in place to keep the mania going, certainly wouldnt like to short this...but also...its based on nothing but air and a story that doesnt make sense.

!!

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

You'll buy bitcoin at the price you deserve, Buckeye.

Or he won’t buy it all. I am sure he will be fine either way.

 

Why does the US need a strategic bitcoin  reserve? What is the strategic purpose?

 

By the way currency reserves in treasuries or sovereign bonds do create interest income

[Paarslaars]

39 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

I want to reiterate here, because I have a feeling Paar won't follow up on this message, this statement is  false. And this statement is a huge disservice to the amazing forum members who share their thoughts/research on those threads.

 

Let's take Viking for example.  Viking has been SO VERY KIND to continue to share his detailed analysis on FRFHF.  And many of the members (like me), who have followed Viking into this stock have been handsomely rewarded!  Thank you so much Viking for all of your thoughtful posts!  And thank you to Sanjeev, Gfp, Deal, Greg, Ericopoly, Boilermaker, Spek, Gio, John Hjorth, Packer, Wabuffo, Sleepy, Morgan, Dalal and the many other incredible forum members who take the time to share their thoughts on the Investment thread!

 

But the one difference between Viking and any of the Bitcoin Bros, is that at the end of the day, Viking doesn't care if any more people buy into the story.  If anything he would prefer less people buy into the story (I assume), which would give him the opportunity to buy shares at a lower price.  Thank you again Viking for all that you do!      

 

Was at a carnaval with my wife and family, you know, that wholesome stuff the dems despise these days.  

 

I like the Viking example, had the same thing in mind. Sure Viking might want to load up more, don't want to speak for him, but only up to a point. At one point, someone needs to buy into the story. Not to mention that it goes deeper, you need people to buy into every story of every FFH subsidiary because otherwise thoses businesses won't sell anything. The entire economy is based on supply & demand and demand is based on people buying into stuff... it cannot be easier to comprehend than this.

 

It is always about people buying into a story. Look at Apple, millions of people in line to buy inferior hardware just for the story.

 

Anyway, pretty much done with this topic though.

I gave you my trump trade, do with it as you please.

FYI: BTC is up 4% today and MSTR 16%, you can believe I'm wrong but with these numbers I love to be.  

[james22]

1 minute ago, Spekulatius said:

Why does the US need a strategic bitcoin  reserve? What is the strategic purpose?

 

The same as any speculative attack, swapping weak (printable) fiat for the hardest asset known.