President-Elect Trump trades

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

I don't understand how the USD can be getting stronger when almost everything I've ever read or heard has pointed directly towards depreciation. Didn't Buffett used to have billions in forex contracts? I've been looking for any signs of them in Berkshire's recent reports, but I think they're negligible now.

 

I really wonder sometimes what Buffett thinks about the dollar.

Well everything else depreciates faster due to higher inflation. This is certainly true for EM currencies but not for the Japanese yen and the Euro. I think the Japanese yen is quite undervalued in terms of purchasing power, the Euro a bit less so.

 

Then we have an influx in USD due to safe haven aspects, negating the trade deficits.

[Dinar]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Well everything else depreciates faster due to higher inflation. This is certainly true for EM currencies but not for the Japanese yen and the Euro. I think the Japanese yen is quite undervalued in terms of purchasing power, the Euro a bit less so.

 

Then we have an influx in USD due to safe haven aspects, negating the trade deficits.

In my opinion, the best currencies are the JPY due to undervaluation and zero inflation, CHF, and ILS (due to fast economic growth driven by technology, and relatively low inflation.)

[Spekulatius]

On 11/30/2024 at 5:39 PM, Junior R said:

 

This is interesting and it’s actually more about replacing Swift than the USD per se. From a BRICS perspective, it makes sense to challenge SWIFT imo. SWIFT runs on USD so the threat to the USD is more indirect than direct.

 

Also, looking at the trade flow, Brazil has a trade deficit with the US, South Africa has a smallish export surplus, Russia doesn’t give a damn so there is China, which gets tariffs anyways.

 

So in my opinion, if the BRICS want to play, they could and just retaliate with similar tarrifs and would come even or ahead except China, which is getting the tariff treatment anyways.

 

I think the question is if it’s worth the trouble. 

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/brazil#:~:text=U.S. goods and services trade,up 58.8 percent from 2021.

[rogermunibond]

Pretty good history piece from Richard Koo on tariffs, trade deficit, capital account etc.

 

https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/trump-tariffs-and-exchange-rates-the-message-of-elections-in-the-us-and-japan

[Xerxes]

Watch the full video of Donald Trump talking with Jim Cramer at the NYSE

 

 

 

[cubsfan]

^^^ What a difference between this guy and the Biden Crime family.

[Xerxes]

18 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ What a difference between this guy and the Biden Crime family.

 

 

Biden / Harris camp had no chance with Trump. The man is on a mission to break status quo. Hopefully net positive. 

 

that said I don’t know about “crime family.” 

[cubsfan]

Not to worry about the Bidens. Handing out 10 years worth of pardons for the family will do wonders for keeping them out of jail. And they do get to keep the $24M for doing nothing.

[Spooky]

18 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Not to worry about the Bidens. Handing out 10 years worth of pardons for the family will do wonders for keeping them out of jail. And they do get to keep the $24M for doing nothing.

 

Not much compared to the $2 billion Jared Kushner got from the Saudis.

[cubsfan]

57 minutes ago, Spooky said:

 

Not much compared to the $2 billion Jared Kushner got from the Saudis.

 

Big, big difference.

 

One is running a legit business while not involved in the government.

Biden, of course, worked with his father who was in power (assigned to Ukraine relations) and used access to his VP father to shake down many foreign enties. All the while, using shell companies to hide millions in income to evade taxes, while providing access to the power of the US Vice President.

 

One legit, one criminal on several levels. But go ahead and smear the legit businessman.

Edited Saturday at 04:16 PM by cubsfan

[Spooky]

5 hours ago, cubsfan said:

One is running a legit business while not involved in the government.

 

[Spekulatius]

30 minutes ago, Spooky said:

 

Wrong twice in one sentence.
 

Quote

In 2005, Charles Kushner was convicted of tax evasion and witness tampering, and served time in federal prison. As a result, he handed over the management of the company to his eldest son, Jared.^[6]

Jared bought 666 Fifth Avenue in 2007 (you really can’t make this up) fresh out of MBA school and also got bailed out by Saudi money later.

 

Anyhow, the next 4 years are going to be the golden age for white collar crime. You can take this one to your Coinbase account.

 

[cubsfan]

There's nothing like the Biden crime family:

 

https://oversight.house.gov/the-bidens-influence-peddling-timeline/

 

But somehow Jared Kushner is criminal - what a joke.

 

[backtothebeach]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

There's nothing like the Biden crime family:

 

https://oversight.house.gov/the-bidens-influence-peddling-timeline/

 

But somehow Jared Kushner is criminal - what a joke.

 

Nothing to worry about, the pardon goes back 11 years, lol.

[dealraker]

Trump/Kushner have been wildly successful using the guv for financial survival.  Both were on the edge of failure, now both set for life.  The Brookfield/Kush-Kush deal is one I have found so interesting because although Brook did the let's pretend half sale of Westinghouse - the 5th Ave thing in my view is a disaster in $ terms.  My view as a BAM/BN shareholder never changes, I think they are absolutely average at best investing yet over-the-top successful being feeboys and girls.  Dalrymple is on the money with his financial investigation but it is years yet till it gets GE'd.  He's a needed start - yet he's an idiot to subject himself to the absolute belief of the Brook bunch.  Welch walked on water and drowned his critics for years after GE was obviously failing.

 

The Trump/Gabbard et als trait that is so successful is the grievance/provocation.  This mindset and verbset is now just like Fox News, it is the mainstream of the US.   Hilariously the most powerful and successful political man in the Western world is a Brit named Rupert who literally owns America yet can't even control his dang children.  

 

The 60 years now of Trump owning the media, over-and-over wild euphoric anticipation of his future success followed by absolute chaotic financial failure - this is his his crazy attractive model of sucking in an endlessly rotating in-and-out bunch of believers .  His grossly indebted $2.2 bil casino outlays that shortly later got appraised at $800 mil...and then for fear of losing all their $ banks handed T a debt less huge stake in what was left --- this is the model that is repeated throughout T's life.  The more he fails others, the more attractive he becomes...literally because he survives.  Start fires and crawl out with what's left is Trump 101.  He's damn polished at it.   

 

I consider T nothing but a low IQ low mental energy goofball, his scrambled mind can't stay on one issue long enough to get past Monopoly's start.  If he has success with any of this impulsive plan then we'll be better off.  Because if he starts his typical failure cycle then he's going to put into place that game that is so incredibly attractive to those millions of followers (who too haven't been successful) who look externally for blame and outcomes: He'll go on the attack of anyone who isn't kneeling before him.

 

Elon is the brains here, he was on his knees right in front of all the world before T.  Elon is 100% a guv sponsored man, he has been for a long time.  And it works.  

 

 

 

Edited Sunday at 01:46 PM by dealraker

[73 Reds]

19 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Trump/Kushner have been wildly successful using the guv for financial survival.  Both were on the edge of failure, now both set for life.  The Brookfield/Kush-Kush deal is one I have found so interesting because although Brook did the let's pretend half sale of Westinghouse - the 5th Ave thing in my view is a disaster in $ terms.  My view as a BAM/BN shareholder never changes, I think they are absolutely average at best investing yet over-the-top successful being feeboys and girls.  Dalrymple is on the money with his financial investigation but it is years yet till it gets GE'd.  He's a needed start - yet he's an idiot to subject himself to the absolute belief of the Brook bunch.  Welch walked on water and drowned his critics for years after GE was obviously failing.

 

The Trump/Gabbard et als trait that is so successful is the grievance/provocation.  This mindset and verbset is now just like Fox News, it is the mainstream of the US.   Hilariously the most powerful and successful political man in the Western world is a Brit named Rupert who literally owns America yet can't even control his dang children.  

 

The 60 years now of Trump owning the media, over-and-over wild euphoric anticipation of his future success followed by absolute chaotic financial failure - this is his his crazy attractive model of sucking in an endlessly rotating in-and-out bunch of believers .  His grossly indebted $2.2 bil casino outlays that shortly later got appraised at $800 mil...and then for fear of losing all their $ banks handed T a debt less huge stake in what was left --- this is the model that is repeated throughout T's life.  The more he fails others, the more attractive he becomes...literally because he survives.  Start fires and crawl out with what's left is Trump 101.  He's damn polished at it.   

 

I consider T nothing but a low IQ low mental energy goofball, his scrambled mind can't stay on one issue long enough to get past Monopoly's start.  If he has success with any of this impulsive plan then we'll be better off.  Because if he starts his typical failure cycle then he's going to put into place that game that is so incredibly attractive to those millions of followers (who too haven't been successful) who look externally for blame and outcomes: He'll go on the attack of anyone who isn't kneeling before him.

 

Elon is the brains here, he was on his knees right in front of all the world before T.  Elon is 100% a guv sponsored man, he has been for a long time.  And it works.  

 

 

 

Effective communication "trumps" IQ.

[Spooky]

11 hours ago, cubsfan said:

There's nothing like the Biden crime family:

 

https://oversight.house.gov/the-bidens-influence-peddling-timeline/

 

But somehow Jared Kushner is criminal - what a joke.

 

 

The right's obsession with Hunter Biden is astonishing and hypocritical. Trump and his family are just grifters out to make money for themselves. Jared Kushner was actually part of the administration unlike Hunter - remember he was in charge of Middle East peace? After services rendered received a $2B "investment" in his private equity fund from the Saudis (the fund which most professionals consider a joke). Just the type of revolving door in government that people despise.

Trump himself has so many conflicts of interest - he should have placed his business interests in a blind trust. Remember he opened the hotel in Washington where foreign governments could bribe him? He is now appointing family members to head the RNC and ambassadorial positions (Kushner senior actually was a criminal and in jail and is now ambassador to France). Trump crypto, shoes, bibles, watches? We will also now never know who he was selling American's most sensitive intelligence too either.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[cubsfan]

You guys kill me with your Trump hatred & jealousy.

 

Still can't admit that the guy is a genius and the average American loves him now.

 

You have to be a genius to survive as the biggest thing in NY real estate - working with unions, crooked government, etc.  Then you become a media star. Then you transition to the most high profile & successful President against all odds with no outside money. Then you make the political comeback of the century with your dirty corrupt oppenents trying to jail you at every turn - 4 phony cases and 8 states trying tricks to keep you off the ballot. Then your opponents rooting for your assassination - which almost worked. 

 

It's fun to see your Trump Derangement Syndrome on full display. Keep fighting for the Biden.

 

Thank God Americans voted to turn the page from 4 years of corruption & disaster.

 

Common sense & accountability rule now - poison ideology is out the window.

[Spekulatius]

I think iif you believe the tariffs are going to happen , buying steel companies is the best trade that comes to my mind. Also ticks in the re-shoring box. My preference would be to go with STLD and NUE. Both are cyclical of course but have been secular winners. I am not an expert in the industry and never held a steel stock before, but I am intrigued by STLD, its run by owner operator and they are lean operators with quite some vision. it looks like steel, prices are weak and probably going lower, $100-$110 would be a range to start a position.  
 

Somebody sing going to have to make the stuff that everyone will be consuming and if it’s made in the USA, I think it makes sense to make it with US made steel too.

[dwy000]

4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I think iif you believe the tariffs are going to happen , buying steel companies is the best trade that comes to my mind. Also ticks in the re-shoring box. My preference would be to go with STLD and NUE. Both are cyclical of course but have been secular winners. I am not an expert in the industry and never held a steel stock before, but I am intrigued by STLD, its run by owner operator and they are lean operators with quite some vision. it looks like steel, prices are weak and probably going lower, $100-$110 would be a range to start a position.  
 

Somebody sing going to have to make the stuff that everyone will be consuming and if it’s made in the USA, I think it makes sense to make it with US made steel too.

The problem with tying tariffs to made-in-the-usa is that ramping up US made production takes a lot of time and a massive amount of money.  It also takes a great deal of low cost labor that is not available here (and will get worse with deportations).  No savvy management would do that if a new administration is likely to reverse those tariffs (or this one changes their mind because they had a nice dinner).  There is a structural cost disadvantage in the US that you can't, and shouldn't, bandaid over with tariffs that are paid locally.  If US firms can use technology and efficiency to compete on manufacturing, that's where the investment and policies should focus. 

[Blake Hampton]

Everytime that I would see someone interviewing Trump's supporters, their biggest concern was almost always inflation and the current price level.

 

Trump's policies were almost certain to be more inflationary than the ones proposed by Harris, but they all still voted for him anyway. People need to learn that Facebook and TikTok aren't good news sources.

Edited Sunday at 07:41 PM by Blake Hampton

[Dinar]

58 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Everytime that I would see someone interviewing Trump's supporters, their biggest concern was almost always inflation and the current price level.

 

Trump's policies were almost certain to be more inflationary than the ones proposed by Harris, but they all still voted for him anyway. People need to learn that Facebook and TikTok aren't good news sources.

What would have been the inflationary impact of policies proposed by Harris?  Specifically

a) getting tax rates to 75% in places like NYC thanks to raising income tax rate to 39.7%, making Medicare 5% on employees and 10% on entrepreneurs, taking capital gains at ordinary income rates + Medicare starting at million dollars? 

b) $25K subsidy to first time home buyers?

 

Thank you for a detailed analysis.

 

When analyzing Trump's proposed impact, please provide an analysis of the impact of cut to government spending and regulations. 

 

I am sure it will not take too much of your time since you must have done this analysis already given your statements, correct?  Thank you in advance. 

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, dwy000 said:

The problem with tying tariffs to made-in-the-usa is that ramping up US made production takes a lot of time and a massive amount of money.  It also takes a great deal of low cost labor that is not available here (and will get worse with deportations).  No savvy management would do that if a new administration is likely to reverse those tariffs (or this one changes their mind because they had a nice dinner).  There is a structural cost disadvantage in the US that you can't, and shouldn't, bandaid over with tariffs that are paid locally.  If US firms can use technology and efficiency to compete on manufacturing, that's where the investment and policies should focus. 

You are probably correct but I do not think that matters, in terms of what is likely going to happen. The Steel in the big picture doesn’t really matter that much (job wise, impact on economy or even supply chain security) but it’s every elected politicians pet peeve. We see this by how US Steel is handled. Foreign ownership, even if it is likely beneficial is not allowed, it’s US Steel after all. Both candidates are are union friendly , doesn’t make a difference who is elected on that matter.

 

So I think US Steel will be allowed to vegetate and remain a market share donor to STLD and NUE and  commercial metals. We get a short term boost in domestic prices which benefits everyone. Looks like a heads I win, tails I don’t lose much if you investing STLD and the likes, especially if you can grab them on a weak price cycle.

At least that’s my take.

[Blake Hampton]

6 minutes ago, Dinar said:

What would have been the inflationary impact of policies proposed by Harris?  Specifically

a) getting tax rates to 75% in places like NYC thanks to raising income tax rate to 39.7%, making Medicare 5% on employees and 10% on entrepreneurs, taking capital gains at ordinary income rates + Medicare starting at million dollars? 

b) $25K subsidy to first time home buyers?

 

Thank you for a detailed analysis.

 

When analyzing Trump's proposed impact, please provide an analysis of the impact of cut to government spending and regulations. 

 

I am sure it will not take too much of your time since you must have done this analysis already given your statements, correct?  Thank you in advance. 

a) In what world are taxes inflationary? I understand people would have less disposable income but I prefer this over printing money.
b) That was a crazy policy that would've been inflationary. Never said she was perfect, just better than Trump.

 

Government spending:

 

 

Trump has promised not to touch entitlements and I'm sure if pressed, he would issue the same response for defense. If you were to completely cut out all the discretionary non-defense spending, you would barely halve the current deficit. This isn't even touching on the absolute chaos that would certainly ensue from such policy.

 

So government spending isn't going anywhere, what about taxes? Well, Trump wants to cut them some more, as if his 2017 cuts didn't already throw this country far deeper in the hole.

 

Ever heard of tariffs?

[cubsfan]

6 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

So government spending isn't going anywhere, what about taxes? Well, Trump wants to cut them some more, as if his 2017 cuts didn't already throw this country far deeper in the hole.

 

That's just silly. Trump has made it clear that spending cuts are coming. Some will be in the form of RIFs. Major reductions will be in the form of elimination of useless/harmful regulations/departments.  There are 220 agencies that issue regulations that strangle business. The unelected bureaucrats are in trouble, though it will take time for the RIFs to take place - the gov unions will fight hard. Figure 18 months for the fight to end at the Supreme Court were we find if the head of the Executive Branch has the authority to run the branch as he sees fit.