President-Elect Trump trades

[Blake Hampton]

For over 40 years, our economy has experienced nothing but decreases in the rates of inflation, interest, and taxes. Interestingly, these three factors almost seem to directly correlate: rising inflation increases interest rates, whose expense needs to be offset by higher taxes (and likely spending cuts as well).

When valuing a stock, you're not just discounting next year's earnings but rather the projected earnings over the next 30 to 50. Warren Buffett once mentioned how investing involved "huge waves," and how if you could stay objective, you would get very rich.

 

edit: I think it's also good to have discussions because I can always be wrong

Edited November 14 by Blake Hampton

[Blake Hampton]

^ What do you think @dealraker

[Buckeye]

1 hour ago, Milu said:

As with most things in life it isn't black or white. The current stereotypes on this forum is into two groups of people, you are either a boring old-school value investor focused on cheap cigar butts, or a YOLO Bitcoin Bro going all in on Crypto. Neither of which I suspect are fully accurate.

 

In reality the majority of the forum are in some middle ground. It's also ok to hold two different viewpoints at once, for example I hold some bitcoin as a means of protecting some of my purchasing power and because I believe its demand will continue to grow, while also believing that the stock market is ridiculously overvalued. I also have a rather large cash pile that I would love to be able to deploy in the next bear market, whenever that is.

Milu, I was pretty hard on the Bitcoin Bros, so I will assume this comment is directed at me. 

But you have completely mischaracterized my comments and are clearly showing your own bias. 
 

I never implied that you are either in one camp, or the other camp. I never said that you should or should not buy Bitcoin. In fact, I believe that I said that I am happy for anyone who was made money on Bitcoin. And that it has clearly been a profitable, correct call (so far). 
 

I was only questioning the motives behind Bitcoin. That’s all.  And when I did, James told me to “have fun being poor”  

 

I think most members on this forum are clearly very, very smart people (except for maybe me?). But the fact that so many very smart people can have completely different viewpoints on this topic is intriguing to me. As is the motivations behind Bitcoin, which I don’t think get enough attention. That’s all. Thanks! 

Edited November 14 by Buckeye

[dealraker]

36 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

^ What do you think @dealraker

Clueless Blake.  I woke up to B of A (Merrill) pricing the railroads at 25 times 2025 earnings and just went flat as to being interested in such things.

 

 

[Milu]

9 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

Milu, I was pretty hard on the Bitcoin Bros, so I will assume this comment is directed at me. 

But you have completely mischaracterized my comments and are clearly showing your own bias. 
 

I never implied that you are either in one camp, or the other camp. I never said that you should or should not buy Bitcoin. In fact, I believe that I said that I am happy for anyone who was made money on Bitcoin. And that it has clearly been a profitable, correct call (so far). 
 

I was only questioning the motives behind Bitcoin. That’s all.  And when I did, James told me to “have fun being poor”  

 

I think most members on this forum are clearly very, very smart people (except for maybe me?). But the fact that so many very smart people can have completely different viewpoints on this topic is intriguing to me. As is the motivations behind Bitcoin, which I don’t think get enough attention. That’s all. Thanks! 

No wasn't directing that at you and I don't think you are being that hard on the bitcoin folk either. Having skeptical people trying to get to the root of things is where I get the most value on these type of forums, having an echo chamber of 'bitcoin to the moon' isn't gonna do anyone any favours. I'm more than aware that the future is not guaranteed and many unpredictable things can happen that could derail the bitcoin story or any other investment story for that matter. I like to have nice civil conversations where people are willing to push back on each other's beliefs without getting too emotional. It's just investing at the end of the day, not life or death 

Edited November 14 by Milu

[dealraker]

57 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

^ What do you think @dealraker

I'll add Blake that with the unanimous, and I do think it is unanimous, chanting from analysts that the Trump presidency is going to supercharge the economy that we probably have the most FOMO I've seen in over 25 years...and maybe even in my lifetime.  "Assets" with no earnings, people tossing about a growing prediction that we will only have 200 companies in the US by 2035...

 

And knowing these eras last a while, always far longer than you think they will, and that they all end the same.

Edited November 14 by dealraker

[UK]

21 minutes ago, Milu said:

Having skeptical people trying to get to the root of things is where I get the most value on these type of forums, having an echo chamber of 'bitcoin to the moon' isn't gonna do anyone any favours. I'm more than aware that the future is not guaranteed and many unpredictable things can happen that could derail the bitcoin story or any other investment story for that matter. I like to have nice civil conversations where people are willing to push back on each other's beliefs without getting too emotional. It's just investing at the end of the day, not life or death 

+1

[james22]

38 minutes ago, Milu said:

Having skeptical people trying to get to the root of things is where I get the most value on these type of forums, having an echo chamber of 'bitcoin to the moon' isn't gonna do anyone any favours. I'm more than aware that the future is not guaranteed and many unpredictable things can happen that could derail the bitcoin story or any other investment story for that matter. I like to have nice civil conversations where people are willing to push back on each other's beliefs without getting too emotional. It's just investing at the end of the day, not life or death 

 

Exactly

 

And why I'm here, rather than a more bitcoin-friendly forum.

[73 Reds]

32 minutes ago, dealraker said:

I'll add Blake that with the unanimous, and I do think it is unanimous, chanting from analysts that the Trump presidency is going to supercharge the economy that we probably have the most FOMO I've seen in over 25 years...and maybe even in my lifetime.  "Assets" with no earnings, people tossing about a growing prediction that we will only have 200 companies in the US by 2035...

 

And knowing these eras last a while, always far longer than you think they will, and that they all end the same.

And curiously those endings never announce themselves in advance yet are always so evident in hindsight.

[james22]

59 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

I was only questioning the motives behind Bitcoin. That’s all.  And when I did, James told me to “have fun being poor”  

 

You were questioning the motives and character of the advocates (ho, scumbags), Buckeye.

 

My response (a meme) was actually pretty civil, no?

 

[Milu]

9 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Exactly

 

And why I'm here, rather than a more bitcoin-friendly forum.

I think Bitcoin should be added to Politics and Religion as one of those topics that shouldn't be discussed in polite conversation, it's too much of a heated topic. 

 

It's interesting because the two people who influenced my thinking the most in life are Charlie Munger and Nassim Taleb, both who have a strong hatred of Bitcoin. I think in Taleb's case he really hate the bitcoiners a lot more that the underlying technology and he's right that there are a lot of unsavoury folk who have latched onto the asset, perhaps gradually getting weeded out in each successive bear market.

[73 Reds]

4 minutes ago, Milu said:

I think Bitcoin should be added to Politics and Religion as one of those topics that shouldn't be discussed in polite conversation, it's too much of a heated topic. 

 

It's interesting because the two people who influenced my thinking the most in life are Charlie Munger and Nassim Taleb, both who have a strong hatred of Bitcoin. I think in Taleb's case he really hate the bitcoiners a lot more that the underlying technology and he's right that there are a lot of unsavoury folk who have latched onto the asset, perhaps gradually getting weeded out in each successive bear market.

Nah, I think BTC is simply misunderstood.  On a value-oriented forum like this, proponents should expect a lot of pushback.  I don't think even the staunchest supporters really can predict its future.  To me the issue is all about the price you pay and why the price is reasonable at any given level.  Valuation seems to be based mostly on belief, not unlike politics and religion to your point.  There are those proponents who tell you as one example that you will be poor for not buying BTC, which type of comment doesn't even warrant a reply.  But I've found most proponents' views interesting and helpful in my (thus far) understanding of BTC.

[Blake Hampton]

34 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

And curiously those endings never announce themselves in advance yet are always so evident in hindsight.

“The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities — that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future — will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

 

I think that endings are generally predictable in foresight as well as hindsight, it's just that the clocks don't have any hands.

Edited November 14 by Blake Hampton

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

And curiously those endings never announce themselves in advance yet are always so evident in hindsight.

This is ultimately the hopium that never lets the macro guys let go and kick a bad habit. It’s always just so obvious what happened before, even though none of them predicted it. 

[Buckeye]

1 hour ago, Milu said:

No wasn't directing that at you and I don't think you are being that hard on the bitcoin folk either. Having skeptical people trying to get to the root of things is where I get the most value on these type of forums, having an echo chamber of 'bitcoin to the moon' isn't gonna do anyone any favours. I'm more than aware that the future is not guaranteed and many unpredictable things can happen that could derail the bitcoin story or any other investment story for that matter. I like to have nice civil conversations where people are willing to push back on each other's beliefs without getting too emotional. It's just investing at the end of the day, not life or death 

Thanks for your clarification Milu, I agree with you !! When someone like Gfp or Gregmal disagrees with me, I don’t think “What are they missing?” I think to myself  “What is it that I am missing!?”

[Buckeye]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

 

You were questioning the motives and character of the advocates (ho, scumbags), Buckeye.

 

My response (a meme) was actually pretty civil, no?

 

James, I will admit that you have been more polite and civil to me than I have been to you. And for that, I say that I am sorry for being a dick.  That is not acceptable on this forum of high-quality individuals. (I am being sincere). 
 

I do think Saylor is a scumbag for talking his own book, but he is free to do that.  I also recognize that I could be wrong with that conclusion.  However once you start comparing Saylor to Warren Buffett, on this forum, you must understand that the elbows may be sharp, correct? 
 

thanks! 

[rkbabang]

2 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

“The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities — that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future — will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

 

I think that endings are generally predictable in foresight as well as hindsight, it's just that the clocks don't have any hands.

 

 

Probably a bad analogy given that there's a whole generation of people now that can't even read a clock which has hands.

[james22]

2 hours ago, Buckeye said:

James, I will admit that you have been more polite and civil to me than I have been to you. And for that, I say that I am sorry for being a dick.  That is not acceptable on this forum of high-quality individuals. (I am being sincere). 
 

I do think Saylor is a scumbag for talking his own book, but he is free to do that.  I also recognize that I could be wrong with that conclusion.  However once you start comparing Saylor to Warren Buffett, on this forum, you must understand that the elbows may be sharp, correct? 
 

thanks! 

 

I appreciate it, Buckeye, thanks.

 

Thing is, I don't expect anyone here to approach bitcoin neutrally.

 

Everyone here begins with the assumption it's "rat poison squared."

 

And so anyone advocating for it either somehow profits from doing so or is dangerously naive (and so dangerous to others).

 

I can only promise you I truly do not care if anyone here invests in bitcoin. Leaves more for me.

 

 

[benchmark]

On 11/12/2024 at 6:48 PM, Vish_ram said:

 

 

money supply × velocity of money = price level × real GDP

 

Assume in mars I can have increasing velocity that is frictionless as supply is fixed (mars token coin can have matoshi, 1 MTC = 100Million matoshi)

 

As economy grows, the velocity goes up. (Even on Earth you can see it now, velocity is going up as supply reduces). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V

 

when you’ve GDP growth, basically value of money goes up. 

—————————————-

in the current capitalistic system, under ideal circumstances you should have increasing value of money as productivity goes up. It gets usurped by money printing (inflation)

 

Thanks for the reply. If the value of the money goes up, is it that an incentive to not spend money? i.e., if a paper clip is cost a 1 MTC today, I'd be incentivized to not spend that 1 MTC, as a year from now, that paper clip will cost only 0.5 MTC. This would in turn reduce economic activity? 

[Vish_ram]

25 minutes ago, benchmark said:

Thanks for the reply. If the value of the money goes up, is it that an incentive to not spend money? i.e., if a paper clip is cost a 1 MTC today, I'd be incentivized to not spend that 1 MTC, as a year from now, that paper clip will cost only 0.5 MTC. This would in turn reduce economic activity? 

 

If the value of the money goes up, then the prices will drop proportionally. The productivity gets reflected into the MTC and it appreciates (right now USD depreciates as inflation squanders it). When it does, the paper clip's price drops. 

 

On supply side, goods and services are produced. On demand side you've needs and wants. Money is just a facilitator for this exchange. If too much is introduced then it just increases the prices of goods/services minus productivity.

 

The ability to have fractions of MTC (Matoshis) help keep transacting without an issue. we can't do this with $1.00. I cant pay thousandth of a penny for reading an article. 

 

@Spekulatiuscommented something like if the money supply is fixed, then economy will collapse. Why would it? I have plenty of matoshis to go around. 

 

In MTC system, money gets more and more valuable as time goes on. Just owning MTC is sufficient and you don't have to invest in other nonsense. It becomes the pure play in capturing the value generated by the society. Now slowly replace MTC with BTC and things will start to get clearer. 

[benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Vish_ram said:

 

If the value of the money goes up, then the prices will drop proportionally. The productivity gets reflected into the MTC and it appreciates (right now USD depreciates as inflation squanders it). When it does, the paper clip's price drops. 

 

On supply side, goods and services are produced. On demand side you've needs and wants. Money is just a facilitator for this exchange. If too much is introduced then it just increases the prices of goods/services minus productivity.

 

The ability to have fractions of MTC (Matoshis) help keep transacting without an issue. we can't do this with $1.00. I cant pay thousandth of a penny for reading an article. 

 

@Spekulatiuscommented something like if the money supply is fixed, then economy will collapse. Why would it? I have plenty of matoshis to go around. 

 

In MTC system, money gets more and more valuable as time goes on. Just owning MTC is sufficient and you don't have to invest in other nonsense. It becomes the pure play in capturing the value generated by the society. Now slowly replace MTC with BTC and things will start to get clearer. 

I get that fractional MTC helps to facilitate transactions. I think that the fact that by simply keeping money around you get the appreciation of the productivity/GDP growth would disincentivize some spending. Would it not cause the economy to not grow or grow very slowly? 

[Vish_ram]

5 minutes ago, benchmark said:

I get that fractional MTC helps to facilitate transactions. I think that the fact that by simply keeping money around you get the appreciation of the productivity/GDP growth would disincentivize some spending. Would it not cause the economy to not grow or grow very slowly? 

 

From Gemini

If deflation is caused by increased productivity and technological advancements, it can lead to lower prices and higher living standards. In this case, spending may not necessarily decrease.

 

Switzerland in the mid-2010s provides an interesting case study. During this period, Switzerland experienced mild deflation due to factors like a strong currency and increased productivity. However, consumer spending remained relatively stable.

Here's why this occurred:

• Strong Economy: Switzerland has a robust economy with low unemployment and high disposable incomes. This allowed consumers to continue spending even as prices declined.  
• Consumer Confidence: Despite deflation, consumer confidence in Switzerland remained high. This contributed to sustained spending levels.
• Wage Growth: Wages in Switzerland continued to grow, offsetting the effects of falling prices. This allowed consumers to maintain their purchasing power.

It's important to note that this is a specific case and not a universal rule. In many other instances, deflation can lead to decreased spending as consumers delay purchases in anticipation of lower prices. However, the Swiss example demonstrates that under certain conditions, deflation can coexist with stable or even increasing consumer spending. 

 

Sources and related content

 

[Vish_ram]

Bottomline you don't need inflation. The 2% inflation target is bogus. You need inflation to handle debt and fund govt programs. Inflation is a termite that eats into your wealth and destroys savers. 

[Xerxes]

Don’t hard on yourself folks, you can always partially fix the issue by submitting a proposal to Sanjeev to rename to forum to “Corner of Berkshire, Fairfax and Bitcoin”

 

 

[Blake Hampton]

20 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Don’t hard on yourself folks, you can always partially fix the issue by submitting a proposal to Sanjeev to rename to forum to “Corner of Berkshire, Fairfax and Bitcoin”

 

 

Corner of Berkshire, Fairfax, Bitcoin and QAnon*