John Hjorth Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 (edited) I personally think this is the right time to start such topic here in the 'General Discussion', because we - I mean those of us here on CoBF interested in the sector - constantly have things to bring up, that may belong to several different topics in the 'Investment Ideas' forum, that goes by 'one only' company ticker and name. I also sense, that the traction may now be sufficient here on CoBF for such a topic. An industry, that is just so friggin' counterintuitive in its concepts and core to a frugal and rational, old fashion value investor! So let the show begin! - - - o 0 o - - - I think it was a couple of days ago @UK posted about his idea of LVMH being a possible vehicle of riding on the recent China stimulus. Bloomberg - Economics [September 27th 2024] : China Cuts Key Rate, Frees Up Cash for Banks to Spur Growth, Bloomberg - Markets [September 27th 2024] : European Stocks Hit Record High on Rate-Cut Bets, China Stimulus. Bloomberg - Markets [September 27th 2024] : Luxury Stocks Set for Best Week in Years as China Fuels Revival. Edited September 27 by John Hjorth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 11 hours ago, John Hjorth said: start such topic Great idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted October 20 Author Share Posted October 20 The Economist, October 19th 2024, p. 14, section 'Letters' : Don't look so glum "Fashion photography jolts the viewer out of the grim and the quotidian", you say ("Very in vogue", October 5th.) Yet most fashion models themselves look grim. On the catwalk and on the page they hide any evidence of enjoyment in the clothes they wear. They be- coming unsmiling, agressive posing machines daring the viewer to look them in the eye. They become coat hangers, their humanity lost to art. ROBIN LAURANCE Oxford - - - o 0 o - - - 'Coat hangers' <- ? , Robin! - - - o 0 o - - - https://www.dior.com/en_dk/fashion/womens-fashion/haute-couture-shows/autumn-winter-2024-2025-haute-couture-show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted October 25 Author Share Posted October 25 Bloomberg - Markets [October 25th 2024] : Luxury Fortunes Lose $58 Billion as Pandemic Era Splurge Ends. Pesonally, I speculate, we by now not are near the point of maximum pessimistic sentiment for this sector yet. We'll see. - - - o 0 o - - - I did not know that Salma Hayek is the trophy wife of Francois-Henri Pinault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jfan Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 https://www.ft.com/content/894aba60-de05-46b7-a8a8-9fd405c16889 Hermes vs Kering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted October 26 Author Share Posted October 26 It's a fascinating phenomen to observe, how different the big luxury companies have evolved with regard to performance in last quarter, especially Hermes overshadowing or overshining everyone else and shooting out the lights, and Kering not doing well at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bennycx Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 Yea the Kering brands are not good at all. It’s absolutely importantly to be the top brand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-11-03/luxury-crash-deepens-for-europe-s-lvmh-kering-as-chinese-shoppers-stay-away?srnd=homepage-europe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted November 4 Author Share Posted November 4 That wall, it has hit,[<- ], is just awesome ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nsx5200 Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/luxury-designer-increasing-costs-quality-34263746: "Has Luxury Lost Its Shine?" "For the last two decades, they have increased sales by “democratizing” access to luxury. By pushing into cheaper categories such as cosmetics, sunglasses and small handbags, they have intentionally drawn in millions of new middle-class consumers" "The ultrarich, on the other hand, don’t tend to shout about their wealth as much. [...] One study found that for every $5,000 increase in the price of luxury goods, the brand’s logo shrinks by a centimeter" "But social media is making it harder for luxury brands to maintain exclusivity." Classic trade-off. Short-term gain at the cost of exclusivity. It seems like to do well long-term in this space, you have to be the most exclusive like Ferrari and be okay with growing slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 So when does this sector hit bottom ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted November 11 Author Share Posted November 11 1 hour ago, Dalal.Holdings said: So when does this sector hit bottom ? The answer to that question is the same as the answer for any other sector., when the question is asked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 6 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said: So when does this sector hit bottom ? When the body hits concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lnofeisone Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 I'm waiting for some sort of turbulent event, like a BK or the winding down of an ETF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 I think it all depends on China. I have no clue as to how China goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 1 hour ago, lnofeisone said: I'm waiting for some sort of turbulent event, like a BK or the winding down of an ETF. Trump tariffs everything (including luxury goods), China targets luxury goods from Europe in retaliation for EV tariffs. US luxury and consumer goods targeted by China with tariffs and social shaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milu Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 I took the plunge and finally bought some LVMH at €585 per share. Price is at the upper end of the range I am comfortable with so intend to average down should things drop to the 500 or 400 level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lnofeisone Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 15 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Trump tariffs everything (including luxury goods), China targets luxury goods from Europe in retaliation for EV tariffs. US luxury and consumer goods targeted by China with tariffs and social shaming. This is definitely a pathway this can play out and it'll start hurting bottom lines. I think that will be the time to enter or maybe a bit closer to 2029. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted Wednesday at 12:27 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:27 PM Maybe the wrong thread, but Porsche (the operating business, not the Holdco) trades now at 12x earnings. Balance sheet is clean with very little net debt. Maybe Arnault will take a look as this VW/ PAH /P911 construct gets ever more ludicrously valued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted Wednesday at 01:07 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 01:07 PM I woulden't rule out anything a priori when it's about Bernard Arnault. LVMH in the 'Others' compartment of the group chart owns a ... - shipyard! Royal Van Lent Shipyard. The year the build of his personal yacht was completed at the shipyard, a subsidiary of the shipyard, contaning 'something' naturally, was transferred internally upwards in the total group structure, from the shipyard, to the non-listed superstructure. The mere mortals of us perhaps have had dreams of a nice company car. No sweat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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