LC Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 (edited) On 1/9/2024 at 11:17 PM, LC said: Bit late to the party here: Fairfax: 40% JOE: 12% Citi: 8% CLPR: 5% (shoot me pls) Aecon: 5% AIV: 3% MSGE: 3% FRPH: 3% PCYO: 3% STNE: 3% About 20 small positions: ~15% The above constitutes 75% of my active portfolio, cash is 25% of the remainder. Decided to pull some cash when the S&P hit like 4700, then took a month holiday, just getting back into researching. So that cash position I hope to reduce over the next month or two. Been a minute since I looked at my active portfolio: Fairfax: 36% Aecon: 14% JOE: 6% NTDOY: 4% FRPH: 3% MSGE: 3% CLPR: 2.5% Citi 2.5% STNE: 2.5% DFIN: 2% HSW: 1.5% BRK: 1% 35 tracker positions/weird stuff makes up about 9% And a basket of Japanese net nets is about 3.5% Cash 3% Probably I need to be more competitive with concentrating into stuff I like (either eliminating random small positions or making them bigger) and actively trimming stuff as it approaches fuller value (Citi in the high 60s for example). Otherwise it gets too burdensome to keep up with everything. Edited September 21 by LC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WayWardCloud Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 50% All world stocks ETF 30% family real estate 14% US corporate bonds ETF 3.6% Alphabet 2.4% AirBnB no cash no debt about 1/3rd of the way to financial independence Wish there was more to do but nothing feels obvious at the moment and I sleep well with my indexing in the meantime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 (edited) @LC Does it reduce your returns significantly, if you don’t keep up with everything? I have some smaller holdings where I never managed to establish a full position. I review them a bit maybe every 6 month. I had a few with negative surprises but also a few that performed better than I thought. Just keeping up every 6 month (because it’s in my portfolio) I sometimes find good opportunities to add when I think the fundamentals are better than the stock price performance suggests. Edited September 22 by Spekulatius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 @Spekulatius Yeah it’s a good point - and I guess now that I think about it, it’s less about the absolutely performance but rather the lack of ability to size up/down the position. I wind up not having enough confidence to make these smaller positions bigger and really capture some gains, nor trim them if they don’t really perform (because they’re such a small %). I sort of let them linger. And it’s usually stuff that is at least a decent or good business, that I buy a bit on a big dip. Some examples: MSCI: bought at 472, it’s performed well but I never did enough work to build the position size. LW: similarly bought on the dip, it hasn’t performed, and so it’s just sitting there because it’s too small to really matter. In both cases I should probably either: 1) do the research to determine if it deserves a meaningful investment, or 2) just sell it and redeploy into something I know well. MSCI is a good example because it has performed about as well as Aecon, in the same period of time. But Aecon I know well, I follow the company, I can explain why it’s doing well (and why I think it will continue). MSCI I have a cursory understanding. Sure it looked cheap so I bought some. Is it still cheap? I dunno. Maybe? Maybe not? Is it one of those great businesses you can hold forever? Maybe? I guess? So then it’s the question of, what do I do with this tiny position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 (edited) @LC I do much more work when I start a position then I do later after I own a stock for a while. I really only pay attention when the stock moves a lot and take a second look. LW is one where I averaged down but not to a large position. After looking at the new info that caused a drop, I am just staying put since I do now know yet, if the issue is more temporary in nature (meaning it takes less than 1-2 years to play out) or if the business is worse than I assumed. Edited September 22 by Spekulatius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Posted Tuesday at 12:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:43 PM Half in FFH 25% in PRX almost 20% of PDD Rest is in AMR, HCC, IPCO On Margin, I own: Hang Lung Group, WOSG, PETROBRAS 3 very big bets. IB hates me for it and requires ridiculous margin requirements, i have enough liquidity that i can get out of the margin quickly. Sold my Japan stocks for mid teens gain, exited EVO.AB (still think its a good bet), exited some other things which went into the larger positions, for example when PDD crashed. We will see what the future brings, I am young, and I can afford to be concentrated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Posted Tuesday at 12:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:45 PM And i own some tracking stocks, minor positions, some leftover TSMC shares that i will probably never sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linus_md Posted Tuesday at 09:18 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:18 PM 8 hours ago, Luke said: Half in FFH 25% in PRX almost 20% of PDD Rest is in AMR, HCC, IPCO On Margin, I own: Hang Lung Group, WOSG, PETROBRAS How do you sleep at night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted Tuesday at 10:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:57 PM On 9/21/2024 at 2:08 PM, LC said: Been a minute since I looked at my active portfolio: Fairfax: 36% Aecon: 14% JOE: 6% NTDOY: 4% FRPH: 3% MSGE: 3% CLPR: 2.5% Citi 2.5% STNE: 2.5% DFIN: 2% HSW: 1.5% BRK: 1% 35 tracker positions/weird stuff makes up about 9% And a basket of Japanese net nets is about 3.5% Cash 3% Probably I need to be more competitive with concentrating into stuff I like (either eliminating random small positions or making them bigger) and actively trimming stuff as it approaches fuller value (Citi in the high 60s for example). Otherwise it gets too burdensome to keep up with everything. LC: what attracted you to AECOM? Have you looked at WSP and Stantec ? Gary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted Tuesday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:39 PM Hi Gary- best details for Aecon are in the dedicated thread in the Investment Ideas forum - but to try and summarize: Yes I am familiar with WSP & Stantec - Aecon is in a similar business, and was (and is) trading at a depressed price. Why depressed? They were engaged in a bunch of lump sum/fixed price projects entered into pre-COVID. During COVID they were subject to cost inflation, difficulty with managing employees, etc. They have been in/out of litigation to retrieve some relief (to middling success). But the important part: These LSTK projects (lump sum turnkey) generated cost overruns, which were weighing on the bottom line and clouding the profitability of the overall company. As these projects push to completion, those clouds get lifted - and the market sees true profitability. That is the main thesis. Other industry participants did not have this type of clouding of their P&L, and were already trading at higher valuations - hence the attraction to Aecon and not something like Stantec. Other tailwinds in the company's favor: -a high-quality concessions business, -decaying western infrastructure and political will to stimulate the 'real' economy via infrastructure spend, -renewed interest in nuclear builds (which Aecon has experience), -they're a national/industry darling, with a long history and deep connections to both Canada and Quebec (so you get some benefit of national/provincial protectionism), -industry moving away from LSTKs to progressive design contracts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Posted Wednesday at 05:52 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:52 AM 8 hours ago, linus_md said: How do you sleep at night? Relatively well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted Wednesday at 07:27 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:27 AM 1 hour ago, Luke said: Relatively well “Well, I've been sleeping like a baby,” said McCain, to warm, slightly relieved laughter from the studio audience. “I sleep two hours, wake up, and cry." Just joking:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Posted Wednesday at 09:09 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:09 AM 1 hour ago, UK said: “Well, I've been sleeping like a baby,” said McCain, to warm, slightly relieved laughter from the studio audience. “I sleep two hours, wake up, and cry." Just joking:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted Wednesday at 09:12 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:12 PM 21 hours ago, LC said: Hi Gary- best details for Aecon are in the dedicated thread in the Investment Ideas forum - but to try and summarize: Yes I am familiar with WSP & Stantec - Aecon is in a similar business, and was (and is) trading at a depressed price. Why depressed? They were engaged in a bunch of lump sum/fixed price projects entered into pre-COVID. During COVID they were subject to cost inflation, difficulty with managing employees, etc. They have been in/out of litigation to retrieve some relief (to middling success). But the important part: These LSTK projects (lump sum turnkey) generated cost overruns, which were weighing on the bottom line and clouding the profitability of the overall company. As these projects push to completion, those clouds get lifted - and the market sees true profitability. That is the main thesis. Other industry participants did not have this type of clouding of their P&L, and were already trading at higher valuations - hence the attraction to Aecon and not something like Stantec. Other tailwinds in the company's favor: -a high-quality concessions business, -decaying western infrastructure and political will to stimulate the 'real' economy via infrastructure spend, -renewed interest in nuclear builds (which Aecon has experience), -they're a national/industry darling, with a long history and deep connections to both Canada and Quebec (so you get some benefit of national/provincial protectionism), -industry moving away from LSTKs to progressive design contracts. thanks LC, appreciate the insight. Gary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willypoo Posted Wednesday at 11:23 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:23 PM On 9/24/2024 at 8:43 AM, Luke said: Half in FFH 25% in PRX almost 20% of PDD Rest is in AMR, HCC, IPCO On Margin, I own: Hang Lung Group, WOSG, PETROBRAS 3 very big bets. IB hates me for it and requires ridiculous margin requirements, i have enough liquidity that i can get out of the margin quickly. Sold my Japan stocks for mid teens gain, exited EVO.AB (still think its a good bet), exited some other things which went into the larger positions, for example when PDD crashed. We will see what the future brings, I am young, and I can afford to be concentrated! why those particular 3 on margin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Posted Thursday at 04:12 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:12 AM 4 hours ago, willypoo said: why those particular 3 on margin? Cause i think they are that cheap that they will beat the interest i will pay on them of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMM20 Posted Thursday at 12:03 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:03 PM (edited) This is not everything but gives you the the gist. Still buying SNDL. Edited Thursday at 01:02 PM by MMM20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueventures Posted Thursday at 12:21 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:21 PM 17 minutes ago, MMM20 said: This is not everything but gives you the the gist. Still buying SNDL. Nice portfolio, but where is GLASF?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMM20 Posted Thursday at 12:26 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:26 PM (edited) 1 hour ago, valueventures said: Nice portfolio, but where is GLASF?! Yeah that's my only other meaningful active public holding and would be top 5 on there. But I treat the whole thing (common, pref, warrants) as a private investment and mark it quarterly-ish b/c it doesn't really trade. Edited Thursday at 01:29 PM by MMM20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paarslaars Posted Thursday at 12:44 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:44 PM On 9/24/2024 at 11:18 PM, linus_md said: How do you sleep at night? I think he should be sleeping pretty well these days (not sure what his cost basis is), premarket looking good again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted Thursday at 01:08 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:08 PM (edited) 3 minutes ago, Luke said: FFH 900 CAD a share. Prosus bit below 30€ PDD 113 USD Hang Lung up 10% AMR 220 USD Most important ones in my PF so there you have it Congratulations with finally getting some real love (not so common prosperity:)) from CCP! Edited Thursday at 01:09 PM by UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Posted Thursday at 01:09 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:09 PM 1 minute ago, UK said: Congratulations with finally getting some real love from CCP! We will see what happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Posted Thursday at 01:13 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:13 PM Cost average: I have converted from my previous broker to IB 1.5 years ago so i dont have the precise average i have for FFH because i had to sell and buy back but it should be around 900-1000 CAD. Here copied from my IB: Prosus precise average: Avg. Price 28.790 PDD: Avg. Price 115.24 Hang lung: Avg. Price 8.64 HKD AMR: Avg. Price 225.05 USD WOSG: Avg. Price 400.78 GBP FFH: Avg. Price 1090.45 (after transition to IB, is lower than this) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Posted Thursday at 01:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:14 PM (edited) Own small stuff like Fairfax india, Oxy tracker, TSMC Honor shares never sell at Avg. Price 129.87 HUGE omission costs! (sold around 90 USD because i pref. china...and then bought back some tracker shares this february to have it in my acc...) Edited Thursday at 01:14 PM by Luke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted Thursday at 01:16 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:16 PM (edited) 7 minutes ago, Luke said: We will see what happens! Now lets wait until he drops Putin under the bus and everything will be allright:)) Edited Thursday at 01:17 PM by UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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