Share your Portfolio 2024

[LC]

On 1/9/2024 at 11:17 PM, LC said:

Bit late to the party here:

 

Fairfax: 40%

JOE: 12%

Citi: 8%

CLPR: 5% (shoot me pls)

Aecon: 5%

AIV: 3%

MSGE: 3%

FRPH: 3%

PCYO: 3%

STNE: 3%

About 20 small positions: ~15%

 

The above constitutes 75% of my active portfolio, cash is 25% of the remainder. 

 

Decided to pull some cash when the S&P hit like 4700, then took a month holiday, just getting back into researching. So that cash position I hope to reduce over the next month or two.

 

 

Been a minute since I looked at my active portfolio:

 

Fairfax: 36%

Aecon: 14%

JOE: 6%

NTDOY: 4%

FRPH: 3%

MSGE: 3%

CLPR: 2.5%

Citi 2.5%

STNE: 2.5%

DFIN: 2%

HSW: 1.5%

BRK: 1%

 

35 tracker positions/weird stuff makes up about 9%

And a basket of Japanese net nets is about 3.5%

 

Cash 3%

 

Probably I need to be more competitive with concentrating into stuff I like (either eliminating random small positions or making them bigger) and actively trimming stuff as it approaches fuller value (Citi in the high 60s for example). Otherwise it gets too burdensome to keep up with everything. 

Edited September 21 by LC

[WayWardCloud]

50% All world stocks ETF

30% family real estate

14% US corporate bonds ETF

3.6% Alphabet

2.4% AirBnB

 

no cash no debt

about 1/3rd of the way to financial independence

Wish there was more to do but nothing feels obvious at the moment and I sleep well with my indexing in the meantime

[Spekulatius]

@LC Does it reduce your returns significantly, if you don’t keep up with everything?

 

I have some smaller holdings where I never managed to establish a full position. I review them a bit maybe every 6 month. I had a few with negative surprises but also a few that performed better than I thought. Just keeping up every 6 month (because it’s in my portfolio) I sometimes find good opportunities to add when I think the fundamentals are better than the stock price performance suggests.

Edited September 22 by Spekulatius

[LC]

@Spekulatius Yeah it’s a good point - and I guess now that I think about it, it’s less about the absolutely performance but rather the lack of ability to size up/down the position.

 

I wind up not having enough confidence to make these smaller positions bigger and really capture some gains, nor trim them if they don’t really perform (because they’re such a small %). I sort of let them linger.

 

And it’s usually stuff that is at least a decent or good business, that I buy a bit on a big dip. 
 

Some examples:

MSCI: bought at 472, it’s performed well but I never did enough work to build the position size. 

 

LW: similarly bought on the dip, it hasn’t performed, and so it’s just sitting there because it’s too small to really matter. 
 

In both cases I should probably either: 1) do the research to determine if it deserves a meaningful investment, or 2) just sell it and redeploy into something I know well.

 

MSCI is a good example because it has performed about as well as Aecon, in the same period of time. But Aecon I know well, I follow the company, I can explain why it’s doing well (and why I think it will continue).
 

MSCI I have a cursory understanding. Sure it looked cheap so I bought some. Is it still cheap? I dunno. Maybe? Maybe not? Is it one of those great businesses you can hold forever? Maybe? I guess?
 

So then it’s the question of, what do I do with this tiny position?

 

 

[Spekulatius]

@LC I do much more work when I start a position then I do later after I own a stock for a while. I really only pay attention when the stock moves a lot and take a second look.

 

LW is one where I averaged down but not to a large position. After looking at the new info that caused a drop, I am just staying put since I do now know yet, if the issue is more temporary in nature (meaning it takes less than 1-2 years to play out) or if the business is worse than I assumed.

Edited September 22 by Spekulatius

[Luke]

Half in FFH

25% in PRX

almost 20% of PDD

Rest is in AMR, HCC, IPCO

 

On Margin, I own: Hang Lung Group, WOSG, PETROBRAS

 

3 very big bets. IB hates me for it and requires ridiculous margin requirements, i have enough liquidity that i can get out of the margin quickly. Sold my Japan stocks for mid teens gain, exited EVO.AB (still think its a good bet), exited some other things which went into the larger positions, for example when PDD crashed. 

 

We will see what the future brings, I am young, and I can afford to be concentrated! 

[Luke]

And i own some tracking stocks, minor positions, some leftover TSMC shares that i will probably never sell.

[linus_md]

8 hours ago, Luke said:

Half in FFH

25% in PRX

almost 20% of PDD

Rest is in AMR, HCC, IPCO

 

On Margin, I own: Hang Lung Group, WOSG, PETROBRAS

How do you sleep at night?

[gary17]

On 9/21/2024 at 2:08 PM, LC said:

 

Been a minute since I looked at my active portfolio:

 

Fairfax: 36%

Aecon: 14%

JOE: 6%

NTDOY: 4%

FRPH: 3%

MSGE: 3%

CLPR: 2.5%

Citi 2.5%

STNE: 2.5%

DFIN: 2%

HSW: 1.5%

BRK: 1%

 

35 tracker positions/weird stuff makes up about 9%

And a basket of Japanese net nets is about 3.5%

 

Cash 3%

 

Probably I need to be more competitive with concentrating into stuff I like (either eliminating random small positions or making them bigger) and actively trimming stuff as it approaches fuller value (Citi in the high 60s for example). Otherwise it gets too burdensome to keep up with everything. 

 

LC: what attracted you to AECOM?   Have you looked at WSP and Stantec ?

 

Gary

 

[LC]

Hi Gary- best details for Aecon are in the dedicated thread in the Investment Ideas forum - but to try and summarize:

 

Yes I am familiar with WSP & Stantec - Aecon is in a similar business, and was (and is) trading at a depressed price.

 

Why depressed? They were engaged in a bunch of lump sum/fixed price projects entered into pre-COVID. 

During COVID they were subject to cost inflation, difficulty with managing employees, etc. They have been in/out of litigation to retrieve some relief (to middling success).

 

But the important part: These LSTK projects (lump sum turnkey) generated cost overruns, which were weighing on the bottom line and clouding the profitability of the overall company. As these projects push to completion, those clouds get lifted - and the market sees true profitability. 

 

That is the main thesis. Other industry participants did not have this type of clouding of their P&L, and were already trading at higher valuations - hence the attraction to Aecon and not something like Stantec.

 

Other tailwinds in the company's favor:

-a high-quality concessions business,

-decaying western infrastructure and political will to stimulate the 'real' economy via infrastructure spend,

-renewed interest in nuclear builds (which Aecon has experience),

-they're a national/industry darling, with a long history and deep connections to both Canada and Quebec (so you get some benefit of national/provincial protectionism), 

-industry moving away from LSTKs to progressive design contracts.

[Luke]

8 hours ago, linus_md said:

How do you sleep at night?

Relatively well

[UK]

1 hour ago, Luke said:

Relatively well

 

“Well, I've been sleeping like a baby,” said McCain, to warm, slightly relieved laughter from the studio audience. “I sleep two hours, wake up, and cry."

 

Just joking:)

[Luke]

1 hour ago, UK said:

 

“Well, I've been sleeping like a baby,” said McCain, to warm, slightly relieved laughter from the studio audience. “I sleep two hours, wake up, and cry."

 

Just joking:)

[gary17]

21 hours ago, LC said:

Hi Gary- best details for Aecon are in the dedicated thread in the Investment Ideas forum - but to try and summarize:

 

Yes I am familiar with WSP & Stantec - Aecon is in a similar business, and was (and is) trading at a depressed price.

 

Why depressed? They were engaged in a bunch of lump sum/fixed price projects entered into pre-COVID. 

During COVID they were subject to cost inflation, difficulty with managing employees, etc. They have been in/out of litigation to retrieve some relief (to middling success).

 

But the important part: These LSTK projects (lump sum turnkey) generated cost overruns, which were weighing on the bottom line and clouding the profitability of the overall company. As these projects push to completion, those clouds get lifted - and the market sees true profitability. 

 

That is the main thesis. Other industry participants did not have this type of clouding of their P&L, and were already trading at higher valuations - hence the attraction to Aecon and not something like Stantec.

 

Other tailwinds in the company's favor:

-a high-quality concessions business,

-decaying western infrastructure and political will to stimulate the 'real' economy via infrastructure spend,

-renewed interest in nuclear builds (which Aecon has experience),

-they're a national/industry darling, with a long history and deep connections to both Canada and Quebec (so you get some benefit of national/provincial protectionism), 

-industry moving away from LSTKs to progressive design contracts.

thanks LC, appreciate the insight.

Gary

[willypoo]

On 9/24/2024 at 8:43 AM, Luke said:

Half in FFH

25% in PRX

almost 20% of PDD

Rest is in AMR, HCC, IPCO

 

On Margin, I own: Hang Lung Group, WOSG, PETROBRAS

 

3 very big bets. IB hates me for it and requires ridiculous margin requirements, i have enough liquidity that i can get out of the margin quickly. Sold my Japan stocks for mid teens gain, exited EVO.AB (still think its a good bet), exited some other things which went into the larger positions, for example when PDD crashed. 

 

We will see what the future brings, I am young, and I can afford to be concentrated! 

why those particular 3 on margin?

[Luke]

4 hours ago, willypoo said:

why those particular 3 on margin?

Cause i think they are that cheap that they will beat the interest i will pay on them of course 

[MMM20]

This is not everything but gives you the the gist. Still buying SNDL.

 

 

Edited September 26 by MMM20

[valueventures]

17 minutes ago, MMM20 said:

This is not everything but gives you the the gist. Still buying SNDL.

 

 

Nice portfolio, but where is GLASF?!

[MMM20]

1 hour ago, valueventures said:

Nice portfolio, but where is GLASF?!

 

Yeah that's my only other meaningful active public holding and would be top 5 on there. But I treat the whole thing (common, pref, warrants) as a private investment and mark it quarterly-ish b/c it doesn't really trade.

 

 

Edited September 26 by MMM20

[Paarslaars]

On 9/24/2024 at 11:18 PM, linus_md said:

How do you sleep at night?

I think he should be sleeping pretty well these days (not sure what his cost basis is), premarket looking good again.

[UK]

3 minutes ago, Luke said:

FFH 900 CAD a share. 

 

Prosus bit below 30€

 

PDD 113 USD 

 

Hang Lung up 10% 

 

AMR 220 USD 

 

Most important ones in my PF so there you have it

 

Congratulations with finally getting some real love (not so common prosperity:)) from CCP!

 

Edited September 26 by UK

[Luke]

1 minute ago, UK said:

Congratulations with finally getting some real love from CCP!

We will see what happens! 

[Luke]

Cost average: 

 

I have converted from my previous broker to IB 1.5 years ago so i dont have the precise average i have for FFH because i had to sell and buy back but it should be around 900-1000 CAD. 

 

Here copied from my IB: 

 

Prosus precise average: 

Avg. Price 

28.790

PDD: 

Avg. Price 

115.24

Hang lung: 

Avg. Price 

8.64 HKD

AMR: 

Avg. Price 

225.05 USD

WOSG: 

Avg. Price 

400.78 GBP

FFH: 

Avg. Price 

1090.45 (after transition to IB, is lower than this) 

[Luke]

Own small stuff like Fairfax india, Oxy tracker, TSMC Honor shares never sell at 

Avg. Price 

129.87

 

HUGE omission costs! (sold around 90 USD because i pref. china...and then bought back some tracker shares this february to have it in my acc...) 

Edited September 26 by Luke

[UK]

7 minutes ago, Luke said:

We will see what happens! 

 

Now lets wait until he drops Putin under the bus and everything will be allright:))

 

Edited September 26 by UK