-Your best investments for 2024 and beyond-

[dpetrescu]

I hate to be the broken record on here and name the same two stocks I have every year in the last decade. But it’s the:

 

1. Simpson Strongtie 

there was a cyclone on the west coast. Codes will always require more and more structural updates. My theory is Berkshire in their wildest dreams would love to acquire this but instead settle on the far nowhere close #2 MiTek 

 

2. Autodesk 

Decades long moat story still playing out

 

3. ok so one new thing I’m getting into

Basket of Chinese Tech companies

when Someone says “uninvestible” time to look closely and consider investing. They’re cheap!

[rossef2]

JXN - Jackson financial - around 100%

FFH - Around 50%, 

BARC - Barclays - 65%

 

Started to concentrate my holdings much more, and hold them for longer. Last year was pretty disappointing considering I bought most of the mag 7 at the bottom in 2022 then sold them six months later. Expensive lessons I guess.

 

[sleepydragon]

17 hours ago, dpetrescu said:

I hate to be the broken record on here and name the same two stocks I have every year in the last decade. But it’s the:

 

1. Simpson Strongtie 

there was a cyclone on the west coast. Codes will always require more and more structural updates. My theory is Berkshire in their wildest dreams would love to acquire this but instead settle on the far nowhere close #2 MiTek 

 

2. Autodesk 

Decades long moat story still playing out

 

3. ok so one new thing I’m getting into

Basket of Chinese Tech companies

when Someone says “uninvestible” time to look closely and consider investing. They’re cheap!

there’s a podcast somewhere in which SSD founder claimed Buffett wanted to buy SSD a few years ago and he refused 

[Castanza]

14 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

there’s a podcast somewhere in which SSD founder claimed Buffett wanted to buy SSD a few years ago and he refused 

Do you remember which? Would be interested in listening. 

[sleepydragon]

16 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Do you remember which? Would be interested in listening. 

It’s this one I found. I suspect it’s why the stock was up 6% yesterday 

 

http://mastersinvest.com/newblog/2024/10/15/learning-from-simpson-manufacturings-barclay-simpson#:~:text=Warren Buffett is known for,Manufacturing was a natural target.

 

[sleepydragon]

1 minute ago, sleepydragon said:

It’s this one I found. 

1 minute ago, sleepydragon said:

 

http://mastersinvest.com/newblog/2024/10/15/learning-from-simpson-manufacturings-barclay-simpson#:~:text=Warren Buffett is known for,Manufacturing was a natural target.

 

also this one, though i cant read the whole text:

 

https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=1278575&post_id=152078052&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&action=share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=ag2rx&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxNzU0NjI1MywicG9zdF9pZCI6MTUyMDc4MDUyLCJpYXQiOjE3MzI1MzkzNTQsImV4cCI6MTczNTEzMTM1NCwiaXNzIjoicHViLTEyNzg1NzUiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.VipuL92Q4TH4uFcIoGmOm_ubE9IbTTnSyolWWLJQleM
 

Edited November 26 by sleepydragon

[Castanza]

Thanks

[dpetrescu]

5 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

also this one, though i cant read the whole text:

 

https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=1278575&post_id=152078052&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&action=share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=ag2rx&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxNzU0NjI1MywicG9zdF9pZCI6MTUyMDc4MDUyLCJpYXQiOjE3MzI1MzkzNTQsImV4cCI6MTczNTEzMTM1NCwiaXNzIjoicHViLTEyNzg1NzUiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.VipuL92Q4TH4uFcIoGmOm_ubE9IbTTnSyolWWLJQleM
 

 

Ahh thanks for the link, this is so interesting.

 

I’m in the design and construction field and Simpson has been the Bible for decades. One small house will use hundreds/thousands of clips/connectors, each worth a few dollars and each needing to pass code testing and documentation. This creates a pretty strong moat.

 

I used to watch all the old Buffet annual meetings now on YouTube and this company fits so well - simple, strong moat, longevity, product engrained in the industry, great financials. Berkshire bought MiTek and there’s no way they went with the #2 by choice.

 

Every once in a while we’ll get substitution requests to use MiTek which is cheaper - and it’s almost impossible. Too difficult to change out so many clips with their own loads and testing and then relate it back to the building engineering calcs. It’s an advantage by a network of thousands of small products that each requires a lot of testing/documentation.

 

They did fall behind on commercial mass wood construction products - new market over the last decade or so. They allowed others to take a market share and are now catching up. 

[Saluki]

39 minutes ago, dpetrescu said:

 

Ahh thanks for the link, this is so interesting.

 

I’m in the design and construction field and Simpson has been the Bible for decades. One small house will use hundreds/thousands of clips/connectors, each worth a few dollars and each needing to pass code testing and documentation. This creates a pretty strong moat.

 

I used to watch all the old Buffet annual meetings now on YouTube and this company fits so well - simple, strong moat, longevity, product engrained in the industry, great financials. Berkshire bought MiTek and there’s no way they went with the #2 by choice.

 

Every once in a while we’ll get substitution requests to use MiTek which is cheaper - and it’s almost impossible. Too difficult to change out so many clips with their own loads and testing and then relate it back to the building engineering calcs. It’s an advantage by a network of thousands of small products that each requires a lot of testing/documentation.

 

They did fall behind on commercial mass wood construction products - new market over the last decade or so. They allowed others to take a market share and are now catching up. 

 

https://www.strongtie.com/about/locations 

 

I notice they have some manufacturing in China.  Is that a concern with possible tarrifs coming?  

[Spekulatius]

I think STNE has a good chance of being a 50% gainer 2025. Just needs a bit help from better macro in Brazil () but even the self help from buybacks should lead to a better valuation overtime time.

[sleepydragon]

My best investment in 2024 turned out to be the trump trade — fnma and fnmas, followed by a biotech (LQDA) and a company in bankruptcy (YELLQ) — almost covered my big lose in SAVE! Fortunately most of my assets are in Brk

 

[KPO]

17 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I think STNE has a good chance of being a 50% gainer 2025. Just needs a bit help from better macro in Brazil () but even the self help from buybacks should lead to a better valuation overtime time.

Agreed