The End of Work

[Cod Liver Oil]

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/what-elon-musks-age-of-abundance-means-for-the-future-of-capitalism-7c0807df?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

The cultural and economic implications are huge. Musk thinks we will live in an abundant world except for unique pieces of art and real estate.  I think the trophy asset aspect of this POV is the only thing that is actionable to prepare for the nootropic and fully automated new world where we are all autistic software.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Cod Liver Oil

[Luca]

12 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/what-elon-musks-age-of-abundance-means-for-the-future-of-capitalism-7c0807df?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

The cultural and economic implications are huge. Musk thinks we will live in an abundant world except for unique pieces of art and real estate.  I think the trophy asset aspect of this POV is the only thing that is actionable to prepare for the nootropic and fully automated new world where we are all autistic software.

The question will be, how will the wealth that is produced by robots be shared through the population? Right now the vast majority of capital flows into few hands and many are sitting on 0 and on debt. If more and more jobs fall away, there needs to be a redistribution program of some kind to catch up the people who own no stocks or are in debt via big mortgages etc. 

[james22]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

The question will be, how will the wealth that is produced by robots be shared through the population? Right now the vast majority of capital flows into few hands and many are sitting on 0 and on debt. If more and more jobs fall away, there needs to be a redistribution program of some kind to catch up the people who own no stocks or are in debt via big mortgages etc. 

 

I'll guess it'll look like the Middle East today, where vast wealth is held by few and just enough is shared to keep the populace from rebelling.

[james22]

1 hour ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/what-elon-musks-age-of-abundance-means-for-the-future-of-capitalism-7c0807df?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

The cultural and economic implications are huge. Musk thinks we will live in an abundant world except for unique pieces of art and real estate.

 

And luxury beliefs:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxury_belief

[Cod Liver Oil]

My predictions:

The Knicks will be worth more. (MSGS)

There will be more time for humanoids to play Nintendo. (NTDOY)

Sex will become a quaint pastime (HTL).

 

I think we should resurrect Byron Wien's annual surprising predictions.

Edited November 12, 2023 by Cod Liver Oil

[Malmqky]

55 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

I'll guess it'll look like the Middle East today, where vast wealth is held by few and just enough is shared to keep the populace from rebelling.

this is the most likely outcome imo as well.

 

ideally some sort of universal basic income is implemented, welfare is abolished, and ppl are then free to pursue things like art, writing, investing, small business ventures of sorts, etc. as “jobs”. This is unfortunately a very unrealistic outcome however.

[Gregmal]

Just now, Malmqky said:

this is the most likely outcome imo as well.

 

ideally some sort of universal basic income is implemented, welfare is abolished, and ppl are then free to pursue things like art, writing, investing, small business ventures of sorts, etc. as “jobs”. This is unfortunately a very unrealistic outcome however.

In the meantime ignorant and rich Americans will continue to bash Asian and Middle Eastern countries who are structurally better off than we are. I’ve always been amused by this dynamic. Cuz you know, the horrors of living in Dubai where it’s a crime to lack integrity or morals lol. We need to be more like Merica where you can legally shit yourself on the sidewalk and then pass out with a needle hangin out your arm. 

[DooDiligence]

I recommend Frederik Pohl's Midas Plague for a sarcastic view of a workless world.

[Gregmal]

Meanwhile even ambitious attempts to solve problems are met with resistance from the scummy establishment. Even when it means out light making up links and issues that don’t exist just to kill time.

 

https://nypost.com/2023/11/12/business/utopian-city-california-forever-still-faces-national-security-probe-pols/

[Sweet]

The end of work would be a disaster for society.

 

Life would be so god dam boring too.

[Parsad]

I think AI and robotics will almost certainly lead to the end of many jobs...but at the same time lead to increased margins and profitability in many industries normally operating with lower margins.  That would mean that society would have to create a guaranteed income for people.  

 

AI and robotics will also be a savior for those countries facing unfortunate demographics and limited immigration...especially since the global population is expected to begin a decline at the end of this century.

 

AI and robotics will also speed up our exploration of space, and the colonization of other planets.  Cheers!   

[Gamecock-YT]

oh yes, i'm sure it will be a great thing for society when 80% of people don't work. What's the old proverb? idle hands are the devil's workshop? 

 

But given our current society that revers technocrats, unpunishes corruption, and doesn't really stand up for workers rights, I don't see the "societal safety net" holding water....It'll be the usual tax dodging, union busting, political bribery, the "I'll get mine and you'll get crumbs" that's been the status quo for the past nearly half century.

 

More likely this leads to more polarization of society even more than we currently have, uprisings, wars, and human suffering.

 

Sorry to rain on the kumbaya utopias discussion.

 

 

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, Gamecock-YT said:

oh yes, i'm sure it will be a great thing for society when 80% of people don't work. What's the old proverb? idle hands are the devil's workshop? 

 

But given our current society that revers technocrats, unpunishes corruption, and doesn't really stand up for workers rights, I don't see the "societal safety net" holding water....It'll be the usual tax dodging, union busting, political bribery, the "I'll get mine and you'll get crumbs" that's been the status quo for the past nearly half century.

 

More likely this leads to more polarization of society even more than we currently have, uprisings, wars, and human suffering.

 

Sorry to rain on the kumbaya utopias discussion.

 

 

 

It won't be like 80% of the population...many will either transition to other new opportunities or participate in entrepreneurial/social endeavors.  But I would imagine 40-50% of current task/repetitive occupations would become obsolete for humans.  

 

We've lost occupations before...and new occupations replaced them in a new economy.  The same happens after each revolution in technology.  But advanced robotics and AI will create far more upheaval in how the new economy will operate.  Cheers!

[rohitc99]

A lot of current debate also assumes current set of needs, but we have seen humans have unlimited wants. i am sure we will find something new. also the level of global proverty is still quite high. just taking billions of people out of it with lesser resources should be a net positive

[ValueArb]

On 11/11/2023 at 7:52 AM, Cod Liver Oil said:

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/what-elon-musks-age-of-abundance-means-for-the-future-of-capitalism-7c0807df?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

The cultural and economic implications are huge. Musk thinks we will live in an abundant world except for unique pieces of art and real estate.  I think the trophy asset aspect of this POV is the only thing that is actionable to prepare for the nootropic and fully automated new world where we are all autistic software.

 

We've been eliminating work for ten thousand years and somehow there is more work to do than ever. Robots are just another in a long line of automation machinery that increases our productivity and output. 

 

And there are infinite amounts of available real estate, in space. And in some ways vastly superior real estate, with nearly infinite solar power, flexible gravity levels, controlled environments, etc. At the $100M/ton payload costs of the Shuttle that's just a fantasy, at the $3M/ton payload costs of SpaceX it's intriguing, once we reach the $300K/ton cost level that a fully reusable vehicle like Starship is capable of it will start the gold rush. 

[rkbabang]

22 hours ago, Sweet said:

The end of work would be a disaster for society.

 

Life would be so god dam boring too.

 

 

There won't ever be an "end of work".  There might be an "end of the need to work", but that is a very different thing.  People will work at things they want to work at, even when they don't have to.  There are million things I wish I had time for that I don't do because I have a job.

 

Sure some people will just lock themselves in a dark room and play video games all day, others will spend the day nodding off with a needle in their arm, but many people will remain busy, will build things, will invent things, etc....

 

[james22]

Hypergamy ensures progress.

[rohitc99]

20 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

 

There won't ever be an "end of work".  There might be an "end of the need to work", but that is a very different thing.  People will work at things they want to work at, even when they don't have to.  There are million things I wish I had time for that I don't do because I have a job.

 

Sure some people will just lock themselves in a dark room and play video games all day, others will spend the day nodding off with a needle in their arm, but many people will remain busy, will build things, will invent things, etc....

 

+ 1

so true and it describes so many of the millionaires and billionaires today

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, rkbabang said:

 

 

There won't ever be an "end of work".  There might be an "end of the need to work", but that is a very different thing.  People will work at things they want to work at, even when they don't have to.  There are million things I wish I had time for that I don't do because I have a job.

 

Sure some people will just lock themselves in a dark room and play video games all day, others will spend the day nodding off with a needle in their arm, but many people will remain busy, will build things, will invent things, etc....

 

 

+1!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-create-largest-displacement-human-193018798.html

 

Cheers!

[Xerxes]

^^^^
 

Here is the actual podcast. As it happened I listened to it several days ago not because of the comment about AI, but rather because it is Brad Gerstner speaking. This guy is my hero. Upbeat, willing and able to make an impact, outside the investment world. It is nice to listen to someone who is on the same wavelength as you. 
 

You seem him coming on CNBC now and then. Big bull on Booking (for a long time), Snowflake and others. 

Also as it happens in this specific episode he talks about Ted W. from Berkshire. You might find that part interesting. 

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/art-of-investing/id1708212587?i=1000634603785

 

 

[bargainman]

On 11/13/2023 at 12:49 PM, rkbabang said:

 

 

Sure some people will just lock themselves in a dark room and play video games all day, 

 

 

Some of those are making millions doing it

[bargainman]

On 11/17/2023 at 1:59 AM, Xerxes said:

^^^^
 

Here is the actual podcast. As it happened I listened to it several days ago not because of the comment about AI, but rather because it is Brad Gerstner speaking. This guy is my hero. Upbeat, willing and able to make an impact, outside the investment world. It is nice to listen to someone who is on the same wavelength as you. 
 

You seem him coming on CNBC now and then. Big bull on Booking (for a long time), Snowflake and others. 

 

 

On 11/13/2023 at 10:11 AM, ValueArb said:

 

We've been eliminating work for ten thousand years and somehow there is more work to do than ever. Robots are just another in a long line of automation machinery that increases our productivity and output. 

 

And there are infinite amounts of available real estate, in space. And in some ways vastly superior real estate, with nearly infinite solar power, flexible gravity levels, controlled environments, etc. At the $100M/ton payload costs of the Shuttle that's just a fantasy, at the $3M/ton payload costs of SpaceX it's intriguing, once we reach the $300K/ton cost level that a fully reusable vehicle like Starship is capable of it will start the gold rush. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6-hkbarMKw

 

"Overpriced in the short term,  underestimated the long term impact"  <<<  that is the  story of technology 

 

wrt "we've been eliminating work for ten thousand years"...  yes but the rate of innovation in some areas keeps increasing...  it used to be that  new innovations might wipe out the old/retiring generation.  now people are getting wiped out of careers and jobs potentially every few years.       The societal impact  has one big giant experiment TBD.

[rkbabang]

5 hours ago, bargainman said:

On 11/13/2023 at 3:49 PM, rkbabang said:

 

 

Sure some people will just lock themselves in a dark room and play video games all day, 

 

 

Some of those are making millions doing it

The percentage of people who play video games all day that make millions doing it is quite small.

[bargainman]

22 hours ago, rkbabang said:

The percentage of people who play video games all day that make millions doing it is quite small.

Yeah I was pointing out extreme cases, but esports and video gaming is a huge industry and only growing.  Virutal money, virtual worlds etc. It was a big driving force for CPU and GPU development as well before LLMs

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-20-most-valuable-esports-141434303.html

 

Edited January 14 by bargainman