Cryptocurrencies

[Parsad]

More crypto coins than U.S. listed stocks now...me thinks crypto investors are due a correction of epic proportions...probably as big as the tech wreck in 2000!  Cheers!

 

Crypto Coin Listings Exploded in 2021 - CoinDesk

[rkbabang]

58 minutes ago, Parsad said:

More crypto coins than U.S. listed stocks now...me thinks crypto investors are due a correction of epic proportions...probably as big as the tech wreck in 2000!  Cheers!

 

Crypto Coin Listings Exploded in 2021 - CoinDesk

 

I tend to agree with you.  I'm becoming more and more a bitcoin maximalist.  I still own a significant amount of ETH and a smaller amount of a few others, but the more I learn and think about it the more I think anyone who owns anything but BTC (and maybe ETH) could be in for a world of hurt.   If anyone hasn't read The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous I highly recommend it.

 

Some evidence just from the last couple of days that alt-coins are simply not safe:

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/08/10/more-than-600-million-stolen-in-ethereum-and-other-cryptocurrencies-marking-one-of-cryptos-biggest-hacks-ever/

 

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-sv-rocked-by-three-51-attacks-in-as-many-months

 

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, rkbabang said:

 

I tend to agree with you.  I'm becoming more and more a bitcoin maximalist.  I still own a significant amount of ETH and a smaller amount of a few others, but the more I learn and think about it the more I think anyone who owns anything but BTC (and maybe ETH) could be in for a world of hurt.   If anyone hasn't read The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous I highly recommend it.

 

Some evidence just from the last couple of days that alt-coins are simply not safe:

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/08/10/more-than-600-million-stolen-in-ethereum-and-other-cryptocurrencies-marking-one-of-cryptos-biggest-hacks-ever/

 

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-sv-rocked-by-three-51-attacks-in-as-many-months

 

 

 

I'm trending this way myself. I still think there's a lot to like about DeFi if fees/congestion get under control, but I view the tokens in that arena as more akin to venture capital. 

 

Bitcoin is something different in its entirety. 

 

I still believe this will be like internet stocks - 99% of them will be 0s, but the few that aren't will mint millionaires. 

[Parsad]

Largest Hack in Crypto History...$600M:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/11/tech/crypto-hack/index.html

 

Still no Bernie Madoff, but how long before someone walks away with $60B, instead of $600M?  Untrackable...untraceable!  Cheers!

[Fly]

2 hours ago, Parsad said:

Largest Hack in Crypto History...$600M:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/11/tech/crypto-hack/index.html

 

Still no Bernie Madoff, but how long before someone walks away with $60B, instead of $600M?  Untrackable...untraceable!  Cheers!

 

Hacker returned a portion of it. He/she made some mistakes and their identity is known. They will likely see some jail time.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

12 hours ago, Fly said:

 

Hacker returned a portion of it. He/she made some mistakes and their identity is known. They will likely see some jail time.

 

Not to mention the wallet the proceeds went to were immediately red-flagged.

 

Maybe could have tried to get them off-chain using some unregulated broker in some country that doesn't care about rule of law, but no legitimate vendor/off-ramp would accept any coins coming from that/those wallet(s). 

 

Especially as regulation and policing catches up, there will be no way in the future for these dudes to get money off-chain or to spend at legitimate businesses. Sure - they can still intereact with dApps, accrue interest, make trades, etc. But they will never be able to access the money for physical goods so what is the ultimate point? 

[K2SO]

On 8/10/2021 at 4:12 PM, Parsad said:

More crypto coins than U.S. listed stocks now...me thinks crypto investors are due a correction of epic proportions...probably as big as the tech wreck in 2000!

Hard to disagree, the vast majority of these coins will be worthless. I wonder... how much of ETH network traffic and value depends on NFTs and on these secondary coins. The house of cards will eventually fall... and I wonder if it will take something like ETH down with it. 

 

In other words, is DeFi really just a house of cards built atop shitcoins? 

 

[rkbabang]

59 minutes ago, K2SO said:

Hard to disagree, the vast majority of these coins will be worthless. I wonder... how much of ETH network traffic and value depends on NFTs and on these secondary coins. The house of cards will eventually fall... and I wonder if it will take something like ETH down with it. 

 

In other words, is DeFi really just a house of cards built atop shitcoins? 

 

 

There is going to be a huge opportunity to buy ETH after the crash, maybe BTC too as I suspect it's price will crash hard when this happens just by association.  Yes, the vast majority of the sitcoins will disappear altogether.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, rkbabang said:

 

There is going to be a huge opportunity to buy ETH after the crash, maybe BTC too as I suspect it's price will crash hard when this happens just by association.  Yes, the vast majority of the sitcoins will disappear altogether.

 

Hard to see what ETH's value will be if the vast majority of applications it supports are expected to go to 0, no? 

 

I do envision the vast majority of shitcoins going to zero, but I don't think it has to be a major crash. As a matter of fact, the vast majority of shitcoins make up only a nominal % of the entire crypto market cap.

 

Bitcoin alone is nearly 45%. Bitcoin and ETH make up 65%. You add in the next ~20 "blue chip" alt coins and you're looking at probably 90+%of the crypto market cap. 

 

Seems to me that most of these shitcoins could disappear and not impact ETH or BTC much as the "blue chips" have already run away with the market. 

Edited August 12, 2021 by TwoCitiesCapital

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Hard to see what ETH's value will be if the vast majority of applications it supports are expected to go to 0, no? 

 

I do envision the vast majority of shitcoins going to zero, but I don't think it has to be a major crash. As a matter of fact, the vast majority of shitcoins make up only a nominal % of the entire crypto market cap.

 

Bitcoin alone is nearly 45%. Bitcoin and ETH make up 65%. You add in the next ~20 "blue chip" alt coins and you're looking at probably 90+%of the crypto market cap. 

 

Seems to me that most of these shitcoins could disappear and not impact ETH or BTC much as the "blue chips" have already run away with the market. 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/08/12/hacker-finally-returns-nearly-all-600-million-stolen-in-ethereum-other-tokens-after-major-crypto-heist/#:~:text=In an unusual twist for,pledged to track the hacker's

 

Crazy to see this play out in real time. He's not returning this because he did it for "fun" - he's returning it because he realized he'd never be able to spend the $600 million, which is basically about as useful as not having the $600 million to begin with...and the latter probably comes with lighter sentencing.

 

As I've been saying all along, the transparency of the blockchain makes its use for criminal endeavors a stupid proposition once you eliminate the anonymity. Installing some regulation and KYC requirements at on-ramps/off-ramps ends that anonymity. If you can't get the illicit money off-chain, and can't spend it on-chain with everyone blacklisting your wallet, what can you do with it? 

 

Who would have thought that a decentralized network with no policing authority would actually be better able to recover funds than our current financial system? Anybody remember what happened to Citigroup when they accidently sent money to Revlon creditors? They didn't get it back. https://www.wsj.com/articles/judge-lets-revlon-lenders-keep-citis-botched-500-million-payment-11613490508

[changegonnacome]

Possibly for really really big sums in the millions its a problem.....but for minor league think $100k's robberies.........forget about it....Tornado & Defi non-kyc exchanges can absorb that type of ill gotten gains easily. I've literally stumbled across the instruction book on twitter three or four times now (without searching for it I promise  ). 

 

Bitcoin/ETH trick criminals use:

 

1) Receive ETH/BTC tied to crime/hack

2) Send to http://tornado.cash

3) Withdraw from http://tornado.cash

4) Now you have clean ETH in a fresh wallet not tied to identity

5) Use a DeFi non-KYC exchange to swap for another token

6) Use KYC exchange to swap token for dollars/euros

 

[Fly]

5 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Hard to see what ETH's value will be if the vast majority of applications it supports are expected to go to 0, no? 

 

 

 

Another reason that I'm becoming more and more of a BTC maxi. Yes, ETH will always be here and I do think it has some great capabilities/use cases, but 90% of current platform traffic is pure shit. 

[changegonnacome]

11 minutes ago, Fly said:

 

Another reason that I'm becoming more and more of a BTC maxi. Yes, ETH will always be here and I do think it has some great capabilities/use cases, but 90% of current platform traffic is pure shit. 

 

Exactly I think of ETH as a short term beneficiary of what is in effect a bunch of penny/micro-penny stock/token promotion schemes/scams...........a decentralized Stratton Oakmont for the digital age.......ETH does well as long as the plates keep spinning.......until you run out of suckers in the underlying tokens or the SEC comes knocking

Edited August 13, 2021 by changegonnacome

[K2SO]

17 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Bitcoin alone is nearly 45%. Bitcoin and ETH make up 65%. You add in the next ~20 "blue chip" alt coins and you're looking at probably 90+%of the crypto market cap. 

I suppose my question is whether ETH continues to have value if many (if not most) of the applications built on it are worthless? 

My bias is that I also think that BTC is essentially useless and a giant ponzi... but that's another matter altogether. I'm trying to figure out if ETH has intrinsic value beyond cashing in on zombie and rock jpegs. Because if it does I think it is worth holding. 

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

46 minutes ago, K2SO said:

I suppose my question is whether ETH continues to have value if many (if not most) of the applications built on it are worthless? 

My bias is that I also think that BTC is essentially useless and a giant ponzi... but that's another matter altogether. I'm trying to figure out if ETH has intrinsic value beyond cashing in on zombie and rock jpegs. Because if it does I think it is worth holding. 

 

 

I was skeptical of ETH for the same reasons in 2018 - just replace zombie and rock jpegs w/ cryptokitties. 

 

Ultimately, I didn't see the value in ETH until January when I really started to delve into DeFi. P2P lending, P2P insurance protocols, P2P exchanges and liquidity protocols, and P2P asset management/hedge funds are all pretty amazing. As someone who has staked, lent, and exchanged on these platforms - I think its pretty cool, but readily admit it's not ready for primetime yet.

 

Scalability needs to increase and fees need to decrease for it to be competitive for the masses. Otherwise, it only makes sense as a playground for the affluent. If they manage to get fees and scalability down, I could see DeFi taking a substantial chunk of financial activity.

 

The majority of the population will still choose to interface with traditional institutions, but I think DeFi could easily take 1/4 to 1/3 or financial activity relatively quickly by reducing friction and fees for those willing to deal with a small learning curve and self custody. 

Edited August 13, 2021 by TwoCitiesCapital

[SharperDingaan]

Earlier this year we sold our BTC, parked the cash, and took a deliberate time-out. Severing the crypto links by exiting both the BTC and CME option markets at the same time. No noise, plus time to research/think ... is a wonderful antidote.

 

CBDC is rabidly toxic to most stable coin, and rapidly approaching. Simply pair a CBDC with a BTC or ETH, and you bypass the vast majority of the stable coin market. The market de-risks as CBDC displaces the towering heaps of shite coin, and the shite coin sells off into a very limited market. Crypto exchanges/tethers implode, developer cash dries up, and the great 'burn off' begins. Not too many tears likely either.  

 

Of course, drain any swamp and all ships upon it will fall; including BTC and ETH. Perfectly good coin becomes widely available, at a healthy discount, and in great quantity! Let proof of concept do its thing, and live happily ever after 

 

Hopefully, a 'time out' that pays for itself many times over...

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

[K2SO]

On 8/13/2021 at 10:56 AM, TwoCitiesCapital said:

The majority of the population will still choose to interface with traditional institutions, but I think DeFi could easily take 1/4 to 1/3 or financial activity relatively quickly by reducing friction and fees for those willing to deal with a small learning curve and self custody. 

 

Thanks for your thoughts. I wonder how realistic this is. First of all, will regulators allow it to happen? Will established banks and networks "fold" DeFi into their offerings instead, as currently seems to be happening (Visa and MC, for example, are making big investments in the area, and the mega banks will not cede business lines quietly).

 

Second, the learning curve and self custody are huge issues as the dollar amounts and stakes get higher. 

 

I'm really struggling with this because while I do believe that we can create "better" forms of money and financial networks on top of this technology, I'm not sure if it is just too complex and risky to ever actually be more than a fringe thing. 

 

[rkbabang]

1 hour ago, K2SO said:

 

Thanks for your thoughts. I wonder how realistic this is. First of all, will regulators allow it to happen? Will established banks and networks "fold" DeFi into their offerings instead, as currently seems to be happening (Visa and MC, for example, are making big investments in the area, and the mega banks will not cede business lines quietly).

 

Second, the learning curve and self custody are huge issues as the dollar amounts and stakes get higher. 

 

I'm really struggling with this because while I do believe that we can create "better" forms of money and financial networks on top of this technology, I'm not sure if it is just too complex and risky to ever actually be more than a fringe thing. 

 

 

Regulators are confined to the countries they regulate.  DeFi is not.  Americans sometimes think that the US is the world or is all that matters in the world.  But it isn't.

 

Edited August 16, 2021 by rkbabang

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, K2SO said:

 

Thanks for your thoughts. I wonder how realistic this is. First of all, will regulators allow it to happen? Will established banks and networks "fold" DeFi into their offerings instead, as currently seems to be happening (Visa and MC, for example, are making big investments in the area, and the mega banks will not cede business lines quietly).

 

Second, the learning curve and self custody are huge issues as the dollar amounts and stakes get higher. 

 

I'm really struggling with this because while I do believe that we can create "better" forms of money and financial networks on top of this technology, I'm not sure if it is just too complex and risky to ever actually be more than a fringe thing. 

 

 

Yes, but these people are also the ones that it provides the most benefits/cost savings to make it worthwhile to learn. Someone with 100,000 to invest in DeFi is going to get WAY more out of it than someone with only $1,000 as it stands today. 

 

 

 

Edited August 16, 2021 by TwoCitiesCapital

[SharperDingaan]

Regulators have long taken the approach that use of IT is a business decision, NOT a regulatory one.

Regulatory involvement is limited to setting/enforcing rules of engagement, and change leadership. Financial services as it exists today, is all about intermediation; whereas defi systematically/permanently eliminates intermediation. Status quo is not a viable option.

 

Currently, the best defi platform in the world is a dominant social media netwok, NOT a largely domestic megabank. The best competitive solution is GSIB/DSIB access to a global central bank payment network that uses CBDC. Pay with a CBDC vs a Facebook Libra, because the guarantor is both better and the transaction costs less. Megabank either does what it is told, when it is told, or goes out of business. A market, versus regulatory solution. 

 

SD

 

[Xaston]

On 8/7/2021 at 2:31 PM, Xaston said:

 

The answer was not very long, and it's worth WAY more now.  Punk floor is about 144k right now.

 

Visa bought a punk this morning.  Floor now ~224k.

[backtothebeach]

Anthony Weiner may sell his infamous crotch shot as an NFT

 

https://nypost.com/2021/06/07/anthony-weiner-may-sell-his-infamous-crotch-shot-as-an-nft/

 

Already a couple months old, but a chuckle nonetheless.

[fareastwarriors]

The SEC has told us it wants to sue us over Lend. We don’t know why.
 

https://blog.coinbase.com/the-sec-has-told-us-it-wants-to-sue-us-over-lend-we-have-no-idea-why-a3a1b6507009

[TwoCitiesCapital]

23 hours ago, fareastwarriors said:

The SEC has told us it wants to sue us over Lend. We don’t know why.
 

https://blog.coinbase.com/the-sec-has-told-us-it-wants-to-sue-us-over-lend-we-have-no-idea-why-a3a1b6507009

 

Honestly, it makes sense that these products would be regulated similar to money market funds and securities lending so I don't mind the SEC stepping in. 

 

I do mind that they're stepping in to say "don't do it" rather than to say 'how can we get this done in a way that protects consumers and is on par with other products'. 

 

Seems like instead of regulating to protect consumers they're trying to be the arbiter of what actually gets offered to consumers who are demanding these types of products. 

[fareastwarriors]

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