Dalal.Holdings Posted January 29 Posted January 29 42 minutes ago, gfp said: People are using stablecoins to do some of the things they used to use Bitcoin to do. Makes sense if you are primarily interested in the utility for a specific purpose and don't desire price volatility. I will post this chart again, because the price behavior is following the previous analog to a T so far. The price of Bitcoin is selling off because it looks identical to the same bear flag in 2022. Funny that 2022-2023 was a bear market for Bitcoin (also when tech sold off). That was when CPI peaked at 9.1%. Yet another knock against the “inflation hedge” thesis.
Gregmal Posted January 29 Posted January 29 LOL brings me back to the “bonds are a good inflation hedge” arguments from 2022/3. Which that too, in its explanations, always seemed to dance around and change goalposts quite a bit. Generally speaking, when goalposts move and timelines can be caressed….anything can be anything. Sports teams are the only real inflation hedge(sarcasm) because they don’t have daily quotes….the ones that do, like MSG and MANU don’t count because we classify em as “stocks” and stocks we’ve learned are a bad inflation hedge because they can go down sometimes.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 30 Posted January 30 (edited) 6 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said: It's an "emerging technology" that turned 17 years old. In the tech world, that's geriatric. Yes, it requires "positive sentiment" like all Greater Fool assets What's actually happened is people have moved on: to AI, to Gold, Silver, etc. But it's mostly AI. Because AI actually has some utility to society. AI also soaks up lots of capital. How old was the Internet when it finally got global penetration at the consumer level? It wasn't 17 years I'm sure AI will have some level utility for society. Not entirely sure what it is today. For the moment, Grok still can't even look at publicly available resources to tell me fo which goalies are starting to make valid recommendations for my fantasy hockey team. But you're right about it sucking up capital. And just like I was buying commodities when they were out of favor, I'll be buying Bitcoin while it's out of favor Edited January 30 by TwoCitiesCapital
wachtwoord Posted January 30 Posted January 30 3 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said: If you're going to ask which one seems more correlated to inflation/fiat devaluation, it's gold. Lol of course it is. Did that really surprise you Bitcoin is still fully in learning curve/price discovery. In the short run fiat devaluation is such a tiny part of its price it's going to be invisible. Expect that after it grew up and displaced gold, not before.
Fly Posted January 30 Posted January 30 5 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said: Not going to lie, this isn't how I thought it would go either. Fortunately, I am used to the fact that I have been wrong before. Call it a special gift. Regarding bitcoin I have also been wrong many times before when trying to forecast what it would do or where the price would go. Fortunately, bitcoin doesn't listen to my predictions and still produces blocks every 10mins. Bitcoin hasn't changed in 17 years it has been running, and that is a good thing.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 30 Posted January 30 (edited) 4 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said: There was pretty much no inflation from 2009 to 2021. During this period, Gold did nothing. Which makes sense if it's an "inflation hedge". During this period, Bitcoin exploded which has nothing to do with inflation because USD inflation was very low during this period. 70s were great for gold and 70s were massively inflationary. 80s -2000s had inflation but gold's return was negative-to-flat for the 20-year period. Gold did well 2000 - 2020 despite an unprecedented regime of low interest rates and inflation. It doesn't always clearly align to trends in inflation - just tends to match the cumulative inflation over extended periods of time. Gold started off as a worthless mineral in the ground. Over time, it's monetary properties were appreciated by more and more and it was adopted by more and more for saving/spending. During this period of time, the growth of its "market cap" dramatically exceeded that of inflation due to having started near $0.00 in value and becoming something of significant value to many. Once it hit a critical mass of a sufficient market cap to be a store of value for the globe is probably about the time it's returns started to be quite a bit more stable and became a tracker of real-inflation adjusted money. Much like gold, Bitcoin started off worthless. And much like gold, it's grown in value as more and more people grow to appreciate its monetary characteristics. And like gold, it's value/market cap has significantly exceeded that of inflation during that adoption phase from being worthless to global store of value. And once it becomes that global accepted store of value, it will have a market cap sufficiently big to serve that purpose and will become a stable tracker of real inflation-adjusted money. The difference is Bitcoin is going to do it in our lifetime while gold took generations because we live in the information age. 4 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said: Gold went up during the 2022 Biden era inflation. Now it goes up when the Dollar trades down versus other currencies. Meanwhile. Bitcoin goes down and has been down 17% the past year while DXY is down 11% as well. Gold is up a lot in that period. This is false. Gold was flat in 2021 and 2022 and negative in inflation adjusted returns as a result. 4 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said: If you're going to ask which one seems more correlated to inflation/fiat devaluation, it's gold. Bitcoin seems way more correlated with QQQ, but even that's not perfect as it's down the past year (while QQQ is up 20%). In fact, this correlation might be breaking because I think tech bros have moved on from crypto and SaaS to AI. This is what non-correlation looks like. Sometimes it trades with. Sometimes it trades against. And using the decades above, I'd argue gold isn't even really correlated with inflation/fiat devaluation either. It simply does a decent job tracking it over very, very long timelines of 30-40+ years. Edited January 30 by TwoCitiesCapital
SharperDingaan Posted January 30 Posted January 30 13 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: And using the decades above, I'd argue gold isn't even really correlated with inflation/fiat devaluation either. It simply does a decent job tracking it over very, very long timelines of 30-40+ years. +1. Reserve currencies 'in transition' are managed SD
Gregmal Posted January 30 Posted January 30 Well, I’ve found many times, like Tim Walz, Blake Hampton and all the Tesla Derangement Syndrome folks spiking imaginary footballs in the low $200s back this spring marking the bottom…Mr Look at me on Twitter with his gold/silver/bitcoin victory lap may have indeed marked the top on the commodity rally. These people can be amazing contras.
Paarslaars Posted January 30 Posted January 30 Peter Schiff and his victory laps could indeed mark the top of gold and bottom of BTC. That said, -30% in silver is not normal... especially on an option expiry day. That is a clear sign some bank was about to go belly up and needed a crash to cover their position. I expect this will reverse soon, physical silver in Shanghai is way higher and continues to imply high demand for the metal.
UK Posted January 31 Posted January 31 On 1/29/2026 at 11:24 PM, gfp said: People are using stablecoins to do some of the things they used to use Bitcoin to do. Makes sense if you are primarily interested in the utility for a specific purpose and don't desire price volatility. I will post this chart again, because the price behavior is following the previous analog to a T so far. The price of Bitcoin is selling off because it looks identical to the same bear flag in 2022. Just tell us when to buy, is it 51K or 33K, I dont get it
gfp Posted January 31 Posted January 31 9 hours ago, UK said: Just tell us when to buy, is it 51K or 33K, I dont get it If it were me I would try to ignore bitcoins until they trade around $55k per bitcoin. But other people out there swear they just saw a major bottom around $80k recently. I don't see it
UK Posted January 31 Posted January 31 1 hour ago, gfp said: If it were me I would try to ignore bitcoins until they trade around $55k per bitcoin. But other people out there swear they just saw a major bottom around $80k recently. I don't see it Merci:)
Paarslaars Posted January 31 Posted January 31 1 hour ago, gfp said: If it were me I would try to ignore bitcoins until they trade around $55k per bitcoin. But other people out there swear they just saw a major bottom around $80k recently. I don't see it Not sure this is the bottom but I don't see how we get back to $55k...
dwy000 Posted January 31 Posted January 31 2 hours ago, gfp said: If it were me I would try to ignore bitcoins until they trade around $55k per bitcoin. But other people out there swear they just saw a major bottom around $80k recently. I don't see it Why $55k? I get people who say $80k because thats kinda where it is today and people want to believe we are at a bottom. But $55k feels a bit like wanting a decent cushion to today's price but hoping we are close. Is there any rationale to 55 that I'm missing vs another number?
Dalal.Holdings Posted January 31 Posted January 31 Man, the U.S. Dollar must be getting even stronger today…
gfp Posted January 31 Posted January 31 16 minutes ago, dwy000 said: Why $55k? I get people who say $80k because thats kinda where it is today and people want to believe we are at a bottom. But $55k feels a bit like wanting a decent cushion to today's price but hoping we are close. Is there any rationale to 55 that I'm missing vs another number? I'm just basing it on the pattern from 2022. Maybe there should be some adjustment for log scale that means start looking at it at $66k and add as it declines - nothing is every going to be an exact number that is "correct" - but until this pattern stops looking exactly like 2022 I'm not going to assume it will go any differently. When the chart says something different, change your expectations. But for now, the price is trading exactly like it is breaking down from a bear flag in the exact same way as it did in 2022. People like to dunk on charts as bullshit and I'm sure there is plenty of that out there. But people also like to lie to themselves that something is in an uptrend when it clearly isn't and the chart isn't going to lie. This is a downtrend until something changes.
Dalal.Holdings Posted January 31 Posted January 31 Lol, doing TA now. Bitcoin price targets are like talking about astrology. Go ahead and waste your time. Now $78K. Guess the USD got even stronger? Someone go check on Saylor…unfortunately he created path dependence over at MicroTragedy…
Dalal.Holdings Posted January 31 Posted January 31 I guess it's not just Saylor we should worry about...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 31 Posted January 31 (edited) 1 hour ago, gfp said: I'm just basing it on the pattern from 2022. Maybe there should be some adjustment for log scale that means start looking at it at $66k and add as it declines - nothing is every going to be an exact number that is "correct" - but until this pattern stops looking exactly like 2022 I'm not going to assume it will go any differently. When the chart says something different, change your expectations. But for now, the price is trading exactly like it is breaking down from a bear flag in the exact same way as it did in 2022. People like to dunk on charts as bullshit and I'm sure there is plenty of that out there. But people also like to lie to themselves that something is in an uptrend when it clearly isn't and the chart isn't going to lie. This is a downtrend until something changes. My primary qualm with comparing it to 2022 is that the high was nowhere near the same scale measured by many factors (price to estimated network value, social excitement, return from trough, return from prior peak, etc etc etc). So why would we expect the drawdown of similar scale of the upside preceding it wasn't of similar scale? I'm still in the camp the 4-year cycle crowd is has been throwing in the towel, capitulating, and perhaps even shorting, and that is going to be a supply overhang/demand reduction that is going to need to be overcome. 4-year cycle crowd throwing it in is becoming somewhat self fulfilling, but we'll probably see a significantly reduced bear market both in length and magnitude. The electricity cost to produce Bitcoin is currently estimated to be ~$50-60k. Throw in the cost of miners, materials, land, etc and you're upwards of $75-100k. So I don't expect it to stay at these prices for long before you start an exit of high cost miners leaving and reducing supply further as they're no longer dumping BTC to stay afloat and low cost miners get more BTC to hold. Edited January 31 by TwoCitiesCapital
gfp Posted January 31 Posted January 31 59 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said: Lol, doing TA now. Bitcoin price targets are like talking about astrology. Go ahead and waste your time. I can't' imagine what you would use other than chart analysis of a pure tradable commodity with no supply response or fundamentals. "technical analysis" will tell you what is happening and when what is happening has changed. So far, my chart above is spot on. We will know when it isn't by looking at the damn chart. I'm not going to pull a balance sheet and analyze what's left for owners in a liquidation
dwy000 Posted January 31 Posted January 31 39 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said: He has a few hours left... Hes "predicting" that or praying it to stay afloat?
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 31 Posted January 31 (edited) People talking a lot about how BTC can't be a store of value because its too volatile or its moving down while silver and gold are going up seem awfully quiet about silver's 35% drop in 6-hours on Friday. I dunno if BTC has been that volatile at any point in the last decade. Clearly silver can't be a store of value given that this is the third time it's manic'd/panicked in the last 40 years, right? Fact is: all stores of value are volatile, none track inflation exactly, and all have been subject to speculative runs...and all still preserve value over long periods of time and display similar characteristics that make them good for this purpose Edited January 31 by TwoCitiesCapital
Whensthepaintdry? Posted January 31 Posted January 31 @TwoCitiesCapital it costs 50-60k of electricity to mine a btc? That sounds kind of bonkers.
SharperDingaan Posted January 31 Posted January 31 (edited) Tombstone post: BTC @ USD 77,777; roughly the MSTR cost base. Posts that one of the MSTR rivals currently has 5B+ of losses; their ETH may well be gone by Monday night. Absent a change, CME options/futures markets open deep in the red on Monday, forcing additional liquidations. I-Banks took 2-days to collapse as the solvency of counter parties couldn't be trusted; repeat performance? Middle East about to enter a shooting war. BTC treasuries are reliant upon trust that participants can meet their CME margin calls; BTC collateral is liquidated so that trust in the counter parties is maintained. As puts are worthless if the counter party cant meet the market call, expect a intervention and/or a sudden and significant jump in BTC supply. It doesn't look good for price. Stunning. All our BTC-ETF was sold when BTC was at USD 81.5K and USD 94K, and reinvested in o/g. Last time it took months until we could profitably unwind the pair trades ... this time around it could well be very, very different ... and there is no need to rush. Given that post intervention/sell off; fiat currencies and bullion may well be suspect for a while, we will probably have to marry BTC-ETF. We still believe, but she's going to come with one hell of a dowry We live in interesting times. SD Edited February 1 by SharperDingaan
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now