Cryptocurrencies

[Vish_ram]

Going concerns put their treasury cash in fiat and related instruments that don’t absorb inflation. One by one corps are using BTC as treasury asset. 

 

yes, the block chain tech may also be used but value creation is much less compared to use of BTC. 

 

@73 Reds please keep posting here and I truly appreciate the comments. All ideas should be challenged all the time.

 

There are no permanent longs or shorts, just permanent interests to make and protect wealth. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, Paarslaars said:

US investors seem to be scared right now though... BTC goes up every day only to come down when US markets open.

Seems like consistent pull-out from the ETFs.

 

 

[73 Reds]

45 minutes ago, Vish_ram said:

Going concerns put their treasury cash in fiat and related instruments that don’t absorb inflation. One by one corps are using BTC as treasury asset. 

 

yes, the block chain tech may also be used but value creation is much less compared to use of BTC. 

 

@73 Reds please keep posting here and I truly appreciate the comments. All ideas should be challenged all the time.

 

There are no permanent longs or shorts, just permanent interests to make and protect wealth. 

Most for-profit companies don't hoard cash/fiat currencies.  They either use it or distribute it to shareholders/owners who decide what to do with it.  I don't believe inflation has much of an effect on working capital.  Question:  if you needed $XXX for a major project/acquisition 6 months down the road, would you be more comfortable holding T bills or BTC?

[Paarslaars]

33 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

 

Remarkably it's holding up then.

[Dave86ch]

On 4/17/2025 at 3:20 PM, SharperDingaan said:

Ultimately, NOT INVESTING, it is a passive choice to remain long-term poor, by not evolving with the times. C'est la vie.

 

 

[Dave86ch]

22 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

No; going concerns will benefit from blockchain technology.  In fact they already do.  That's the distinction.

Stablecoins are being used to export U.S. debt and cannot scale on 'blockchain solutions' unless Bitcoin is used as the settlement layer. This was pointed out by Ardoino from Tether—now among the top holders of U.S. debt—in one of his recent interviews.

As I said, if you study the technology, it's crystal clear—and that's exactly where the arbitrage lies, not the speculation.
 

[73 Reds]

4 minutes ago, Dave86ch said:

Stablecoins are being used to export U.S. debt and cannot scale on 'blockchain solutions' unless Bitcoin is used as the settlement layer. This was pointed out by Ardoino from Tether—now among the top holders of U.S. debt—in one of his recent interviews.

As I said, if you study the technology, it's crystal clear—and that's exactly where the arbitrage lies, not the speculation.
 

When you leave fantasy land and return to the real world, I'll ask you the same question I posted yesterday:  If you needed $XXX for a major project/acquisition 6 months down the road, would you be more comfortable holding T bills or BTC?  If you work for just about any company in existence, one answer allows you to keep your job.

[Milu]

4 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

When you leave fantasy land and return to the real world, I'll ask you the same question I posted yesterday:  If you needed $XXX for a major project/acquisition 6 months down the road, would you be more comfortable holding T bills or BTC?  If you work for just about any company in existence, one answer allows you to keep your job.

I don’t think that question has any specific relevance to bitcoin though. If you needed $ for a project in 6 months the answer would always be t-bills regardless if the alternative was bitcoin or Berkshire Hathaway. 
 

 

[Milu]

More appropriate question would be if you needed to lock up your wealth for 10 years would you rather keep it in t-bills or bitcoin? Last 10 years you would have grown purchasing power much better with bitcoin, I’d be confident next 10 years will also come out ahead 

[rkbabang]

8 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

When you leave fantasy land and return to the real world, I'll ask you the same question I posted yesterday:  If you needed $XXX for a major project/acquisition 6 months down the road, would you be more comfortable holding T bills or BTC?  If you work for just about any company in existence, one answer allows you to keep your job.

 

Bitcoin hasn't been adopted yet as a universal store of value and my proof that it never will is that it hasn't yet been adopted.    How many different ways can you say the same thing?

 

A:  I think X will happen.

B: X hasn't happened yet.

A: I know but I think X will happen.

B: X hasn't happened yet, which is proof that it never will.

A: No, it hasn't happened yet, but these are the reasons I think it will.

B: No one does it that way.

A:  I know, X hasn't happened yet, but here is some evidence that it is going that way.

B:  You are speculating.

 

And on and on and on.  You think we're wrong.  We get it.

 

[73 Reds]

5 minutes ago, Milu said:

More appropriate question would be if you needed to lock up your wealth for 10 years would you rather keep it in t-bills or bitcoin? Last 10 years you would have grown purchasing power much better with bitcoin, I’d be confident next 10 years will also come out ahead 

Nah, they tout BTC as a "currency", "store of value" (whatever that means), "gold substitute", or the like.  Again, in the real world anything used as a means of exchange for trade or commerce has to be sufficiently reliable for its intended purpose, regardless of time frame.   Your question regarding locking up wealth applies more to you, as an investor and your willingness to speculate, rather than the bigger picture where BTC replaces fiat currencies, which is what BTC proponents are counting on.  

[73 Reds]

10 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

Bitcoin hasn't been adopted yet as a universal store of value and my proof that it never will is that it hasn't yet been adopted.    How many different ways can you say the same thing?

 

A:  I think X will happen.

B: X hasn't happened yet.

A: I know but I think X will happen.

B: X hasn't happened yet, which is proof that it never will.

A: No, it hasn't happened yet, but these are the reasons I think it will.

B: No one does it that way.

A:  I know, X hasn't happened yet, but here is some evidence that it is going that way.

B:  You are speculating.

 

And on and on and on.  You think we're wrong.  We get it.

 

Its a rather simple question.  And you think I'm wrong.  I get it.

[Milu]

10 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Nah, they tout BTC as a "currency", "store of value" (whatever that means), "gold substitute", or the like.  Again, in the real world anything used as a means of exchange for trade or commerce has to be sufficiently reliable for its intended purpose, regardless of time frame.   Your question regarding locking up wealth applies more to you, as an investor and your willingness to speculate, rather than the bigger picture where BTC replaces fiat currencies, which is what BTC proponents are counting on.  

Fair enough. I’m more in the long term store of wealth side of the argument, so like gold or land. I personally don’t forsee that we will all be using bitcoin as a currency for payments or short term treasury asset. Others in the bitcoin community have different opinions so will be interesting to see how it plays out. 

[james22]

45 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Nah, they tout BTC as a "currency", "store of value" (whatever that means), "gold substitute", or the like.  Again, in the real world anything used as a means of exchange for trade or commerce has to be sufficiently reliable for its intended purpose, regardless of time frame.   Your question regarding locking up wealth applies more to you, as an investor and your willingness to speculate, rather than the bigger picture where BTC replaces fiat currencies, which is what BTC proponents are counting on.  

 

LOL

 

BDS is a terrible thing.

[rkbabang]

57 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Its a rather simple question.  And you think I'm wrong.  I get it.

 

It really is that simple.  I've said multiple times on this thread over the years, if you don't think Bitcoin will replace gold as the standard of value for all of humanity then don't buy any.  Because if I am wrong and you are correct it is going to zero and will be the case study for bubbles, mania, and stupidity for centuries to come.   I think it will be the base standard of value, you think it won't.

Edited April 18, 2025 by rkbabang

[SharperDingaan]

If you are a treasurer, and you have multiple projects requiring $X, $Y, $Z, for upwards of 36 months out, it looks quite a bit different. 

 

The bank will ask that you maintain a deposit with them, and you will ask if 50% of that deposit may be denominated in BTC. You will then negotiate a lower rate for maintaining the BTC at a minimum value (cost via BTC options versus benefit via lower interest). To keep your business the bank will oblige.

 

The expectation is that the BTC will be worth quite a bit more in the future, and that the gain will fund a 'bonus' early debt repayment. And the more that you and other treasurers across the land similarly use BTC (adoption), the more likely you all are of success.

 

The bigger you are the more you can scale, and the bigger the treasurers bonus. Incentivised adoption.

 

SD

 

 

 

Edited April 18, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[rkbabang]

13 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

If you are a treasurer, and you have multiple projects requiring $X, $Y, $Z, for upwards of 36 months out, it looks quite a bit different. 

 

The bank will ask that you maintain a deposit with them, and you will ask if 50% of that deposit may be denominated in BTC. You will then negotiate a lower rate for maintaining the BTC at a minimum value (cost via BTC options versus benefit via lower interest). To keep your business the bank will oblige.

 

The expectation is that the BTC will be worth quite a bit more in the future, and that the gain will fund a 'bonus' early debt repayment. And the more that you and other treasurers across the land similarly use BTC (adoption), the more likely you all are of success.

 

The bigger you are the more you can scale, and the bigger the treasurers bonus. Adoption.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

I'm pretty sure the part @73 Reds will disagree with is "expectation is that the BTC will be worth quite a bit more in the future".   If you fundamentally disagree with that, it is going to be hard to think about or even hear anything which comes next.

[SharperDingaan]

36 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

I'm pretty sure the part @73 Reds will disagree with is "expectation is that the BTC will be worth quite a bit more in the future".   If you fundamentally disagree with that, it is going to be hard to think about or even hear anything which comes next.

 

It just highlights one of the many differences between small and large scale finance; it's not just economies of scale, it's also mindset. Nothing wrong in that, but your choices have consequences; no different to everything else in life.

 

SD   

[73 Reds]

1 hour ago, rkbabang said:

 

It really is that simple.  I've said multiple times on this thread over the years, if you don't think Bitcoin will replace gold as the standard of value for all of humanity then don't buy any.  Because if I am wrong and you are correct it is going to zero and will be the case study for bubbles, mania, and stupidity for centuries to come.   I think it will be the base standard of value, you think it won't.

I don't agree with your premise that gold is the standard of value for all humanity.  The World and humanity would do just fine if gold never existed.

[73 Reds]

1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:

If you are a treasurer, and you have multiple projects requiring $X, $Y, $Z, for upwards of 36 months out, it looks quite a bit different. 

 

The bank will ask that you maintain a deposit with them, and you will ask if 50% of that deposit may be denominated in BTC. You will then negotiate a lower rate for maintaining the BTC at a minimum value (cost via BTC options versus benefit via lower interest). To keep your business the bank will oblige.

 

The expectation is that the BTC will be worth quite a bit more in the future, and that the gain will fund a 'bonus' early debt repayment. And the more that you and other treasurers across the land similarly use BTC (adoption), the more likely you all are of success.

 

The bigger you are the more you can scale, and the bigger the treasurers bonus. Incentivised adoption.

 

SD

 

 

 

No bank or financial institution that I do business with accepts BTC for any purpose.  And do you really want to risk a margin call on your deposit?  The issue is speculation which is what BTC is, and forever will be in its present iteration.  The difference between you and me is I'm not here telling everyone (or anyone) not to own it; just recognize it for what it is, and isn't.  You, however are telling everyone they must own it or be poor.  Perhaps the silliest comment ever posted here - which says a lot.

[rkbabang]

21 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

It just highlights one of the many differences between small and large scale finance; it's not just economies of scale, it's also mindset. Nothing wrong in that, but your choices have consequences; no different to everything else in life.

 

SD   

 

 

Absolutely.  You can do all the research you want and look at all the numbers and trends that you want, but in the end it is all about what you choose to do and what everyone else choses to do.   It is all speculation - even if you try to convince yourself that it isn't.  If you find an "undervalued" company that has grown by 10% every year for the past 15 years, you are speculating that the growth will continue.   You might be wrong.    It always amuses me when people use "speculating" as some type of slur.   When you go through an intersection on a green light you are speculating that the people coming the other way will stop on the red.   It is usually true, but it isn't a law of nature, and sometimes it doesn't work out great for you.  Everything in life is speculation to some degree or another.   When you encounter something completely new all you can do is look at the available information, think about how people will react to this new type of thing, and speculate about what comes next.  Bitcoin is the strongest, most secure, network on Earth and getting more secure by the day.  It performs all of the functions of gold better than gold does.  It is the only truly scarce thing we know of in the universe which can be owned and traded by humans.   All of these properties lead me to believe (i.e. speculate) that people will put this to its obvious use as the best store of value possible in existence.   But yes, I could be wrong.  The fact that a lot of other people see this as well adds evidence to me that my hypothesis (speculation) may be correct.  Enough so that I have put a lot of money where my mouth is.  All I hear as an argument against is some variation on "it isn't a company that produces cashflow", "nothing has replaced gold in 5000 years", "it's just magic internet money backed by nothing", "anyone can create a cryptocurrency", "criminals use it", "it consumes energy", or the ever insightful "It's just speculation".   None of which are very good arguments against my hypothesis.  Let's take them one at a time.

 

Argument:  "it isn't a company that produces cashflow"

Yes it is more of a commodity than a company. If you only invest in things that produce cash/income, then this isn't for you.

 

"gold has been around 5000 years"

Yes the Lindy Effect suggests that it will take something extraordinary to replace gold as a standard unit of value.  Gold has been around 5000 years, so all else being equal it should be around another 5000.  My argument that the information age changes things.  The digitation of money is something that has only happened in our lifetime and has produced something less counterfeitable than gold, easier to hold, transfer, and secure than gold.  More scarce than gold.   This is the first time in 5000 years that any of that has been true.  If gold is going to lose its monetary premium to something else now is the time that this will start to happen and Bitcoin is the only thing with the properties to do it.

 

"backed by nothing" and "anyone can create crypto"

It is backed and secured by an enormous amount of energy.  Humans have never created a network this secure.

No crypto has a network as secure as bitcoin and the gap is widening by the day.   A store of value is a winner take all proposition and unless something fundamentally changes in the future nothing is catching up to bitcoin.

 

"criminals use it"

Yeah, criminals use all types of things to store value.  Bitcoin, other crypto, money, diamonds, land, cars, paintings.  If it is valuable criminals will use it.  "criminals use it" is evidence that it is valuable, nothing more.

 

"It consumes energy"

Yes and it is worth it.  Securing a store of value which no one can tamper with is one of the most important things humans can do with the energy we produce.   

 

"its speculation"

Yes everything in life is.

 

 

 

[rkbabang]

18 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

I don't agree with your premise that gold is the standard of value for all humanity.  The World and humanity would do just fine if gold never existed.

 

I know you don't.  You definitely shouldn't own any Bitcoin.  If I thought the above I certainly wouldn't.

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

 

Absolutely.  You can do all the research you want and look at all the numbers and trends that you want, but in the end it is all about what you choose to do and what everyone else choses to do.   It is all speculation - even if you try to convince yourself that it isn't.  If you find an "undervalued" company that has grown by 10% every year for the past 15 years, you are speculating that the growth will continue.   You might be wrong.    It always amuses me when people use "speculating" as some type of slur.   When you go through an intersection on a green light you are speculating that the people coming the other way will stop on the red.   It is usually true, but it isn't a law of nature, and sometimes it doesn't work out great for you.  Everything in life is speculation to some degree or another.   When you encounter something completely new all you can do is look at the available information, think about how people will react to this new type of thing, and speculate about what comes next.  Bitcoin is the strongest, most secure, network on Earth and getting more secure by the day.  It performs all of the functions of gold better than gold does.  It is the only truly scarce thing we know of in the universe which can be owned and traded by humans.   All of these properties lead me to believe (i.e. speculate) that people will put this to its obvious use as the best store of value possible in existence.   But yes, I could be wrong.  The fact that a lot of other people see this as well adds evidence to me that my hypothesis (speculation) may be correct.  Enough so that I have put a lot of money where my mouth is.  All I hear as an argument against is some variation on "it isn't a company that produces cashflow", "nothing has replaced gold in 5000 years", "it's just magic internet money backed by nothing", "anyone can create a cryptocurrency", "criminals use it", "it consumes energy", or the ever insightful "It's just speculation".   None of which are very good arguments against my hypothesis.  Let's take them one at a time.

 

Argument:  "it isn't a company that produces cashflow"

Yes it is more of a commodity than a company. If you only invest in things that produce cash/income, then this isn't for you.

 

"gold has been around 5000 years"

Yes the Lindy Effect suggests that it will take something extraordinary to replace gold as a standard unit of value.  Gold has been around 5000 years, so all else being equal it should be around another 5000.  My argument that the information age changes things.  The digitation of money is something that has only happened in our lifetime and has produced something less counterfeitable than gold, easier to hold, transfer, and secure than gold.  More scarce than gold.   This is the first time in 5000 years that any of that has been true.  If gold is going to lose its monetary premium to something else now is the time that this will start to happen and Bitcoin is the only thing with the properties to do it.

 

"backed by nothing" and "anyone can create crypto"

It is backed and secured by an enormous amount of energy.  Humans have never created a network this secure.

No crypto has a network as secure as bitcoin and the gap is widening by the day.   A store of value is a winner take all proposition and unless something fundamentally changes in the future nothing is catching up to bitcoin.

 

"criminals use it"

Yeah, criminals use all types of things to store value.  Bitcoin, other crypto, money, diamonds, land, cars, paintings.  If it is valuable criminals will use it.  "criminals use it" is evidence that it is valuable, nothing more.

 

"It consumes energy"

Yes and it is worth it.  Securing a store of value which no one can tamper with is one of the most important things humans can do with the energy we produce.   

 

"its speculation"

Yes everything in life is.

 

 

 

You deserve credit for the expansive reply (really!).  But dividends are not speculative.  Neither are distributions.  Neither is an income stream, intangible property rights, inventory, real property, ecosystems, key employees, etc..., etc...  These factors differentiate our respective definitions of "speculation".

[rkbabang]

22 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

You deserve credit for the expansive reply (really!).  But dividends are not speculative.  Neither are distributions.  Neither is an income stream, intangible property rights, inventory, real property, ecosystems, key employees, etc..., etc...  These factors differentiate our respective definitions of "speculation".

 

Already announced dividends are not speculative and thus already priced in to the stock, but if you are counting on holding long term then you are speculating that they will not be discontinued and not be reduced, both of which happen.  There is some uncertainty in everything you listed the value of real property or inventory can change, you are making an assumption about what you think they are worth now and what they will be worth in the future.  Yes, there is a good probability that values won't change overnight, or next week, or next year, but no certainty.  And the longer out you are looking the less certain you can be.   Ecosystems can be radically changed by new technologies or by government interference.  Key employees can be hit by a bus.  etc. etc. etc.   The future hasn't happened yet, whenever you think you know what will happen and especially if you think this isn't priced into the investment you are considering, you are engaging in speculation. 

Edited April 18, 2025 by rkbabang

[rkbabang]

9 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

Already announced dividends are not speculative and thus already priced in to the stock, but if you are counting on holding long term then you are speculating that they will not be discontinued and not be reduced, both of which happen.

 

To further elaborate.  I hold a few stocks mostly for their high dividend payout.  SEVN, NVEC, and PBRA are 3.   

So far I've gotten back 30% of my SEVN cost basis back in dividends.  19.8% of my NVEC cost basis back in dividends, and 40.2% of my PBRA cost basis back in dividends.  They've all been working out well for me (so far), but I'm not going to tell you that they weren't all speculative investments.  

Edited April 18, 2025 by rkbabang