Cryptocurrencies

[Dave86ch]

18 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Every wide spread speculation in history has been accompanied by a great story.  That's the attraction.  Every speculation in history also plays out the same.   Folks make money while the story gains traction and those left holding the bag when the story proves false or highly exaggerated lose most or everything.  "This time is different"  doesn't bode well.

 

I'm not talking about stories (which, by the way, shape society).

 

What I'm saying is that to truly understand what's going on, you need to make the effort to learn how the technology works and how to develop with this tool.

 

Circular discussions on pages like "it's speculation" vs. "it's not speculation" feel a bit shallow to me—especially considering that the same people developing this have already grappled with the "speculation" aspect of the equation a long time ago.

 

[73 Reds]

5 hours ago, Dave86ch said:

 

I'm not talking about stories (which, by the way, shape society).

 

What I'm saying is that to truly understand what's going on, you need to make the effort to learn how the technology works and how to develop with this tool.

 

Circular discussions on pages like "it's speculation" vs. "it's not speculation" feel a bit shallow to me—especially considering that the same people developing this have already grappled with the "speculation" aspect of the equation a long time ago.

 

The discussion is not about BTC/Blockchain as a technology; it is about BTC as an investable asset.  There is no other way to describe it other than as speculation.      

[SharperDingaan]

16 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Thank you! 

 

That also means the number of "wallets"/individuals holding more than 1 Bitcoin is also probably quite a bit larger than reported too. 

 

 

 

Keep in mind that many hold their BTC via a BTC-ETF, and will not be visible on chain .... as all that will be  visible is a few wallets with large quantities. That 20,000 BTC-ETF holding 2-3 BTC is anonymous....

 

SD

 

[james22]

On lunch break from the Satoshi Papers Symposium.

 

https://www.uaustin.org/news/uatx-satoshi-papers-symposium

[Dave86ch]

20 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

The discussion is not about BTC/Blockchain as a technology; it is about BTC as an investable asset.  There is no other way to describe it other than as speculation.      

If you don't understand the technology, you'll rely solely on the price to determine the value of the underlying asset.

As a result, you'll keep revisiting the topic, expressing disappointment and claiming it's just speculation because the asset has no real value.

 

My suggestion is to start thinking of Bitcoin as a protocol. This is a humble suggestion, as I read every post here and notice that we too often fall into circular discussions that add little value to the pursuit of truth.

 

Edited April 17, 2025 by Dave86ch

[james22]

22 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

The discussion is not about BTC/Blockchain as a technology; it is about BTC as an investable asset.  There is no other way to describe it other than as speculation.      

 

Now we're repeating ourselves from just days ago.

 

Again, was early Amazon/Google/Facebook/Netflix only speculative?

 

Or were they investable assets to those with a better understanding?

[Vish_ram]

Counterintuitive thing: the strength and prospects of BTC is due to the lack of strength and prospects of its competing assets.

Fiat (poor inflation hedge), Gold (security risk, difficulty transporting it, new supply), equities (mind/market share risk, disruption risk…), …..

 

in a perfect world no one would need to own BTC. 
 

if fiat had zero inflation, for many folks savings would just be money in checking/savings account. The productivity increase alone will give them comfortable retirement.

[73 Reds]

3 hours ago, Dave86ch said:

If you don't understand the technology, you'll rely solely on the price to determine the value of the underlying asset.

As a result, you'll keep revisiting the topic, expressing disappointment and claiming it's just speculation because the asset has no real value.

 

My suggestion is to start thinking of Bitcoin as a protocol. This is a humble suggestion, as I read every post here and notice that we too often fall into circular discussions that add little value to the pursuit of truth.

 

BTC does not have an exclusive on what you deem a protocol.  You're right about circular discussions.  

[73 Reds]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

 

Now we're repeating ourselves from just days ago.

 

Again, was early Amazon/Google/Facebook/Netflix only speculative?

 

Or were they investable assets to those with a better understanding?

I don't need to repeat the difference between a going concern and BTC.  

[73 Reds]

13 minutes ago, Vish_ram said:

Counterintuitive thing: the strength and prospects of BTC is due to the lack of strength and prospects of its competing assets.

Fiat (poor inflation hedge), Gold (security risk, difficulty transporting it, new supply), equities (mind/market share risk, disruption risk…), …..

 

in a perfect world no one would need to own BTC. 
 

13 minutes ago, Vish_ram said:

Counterintuitive thing: the strength and prospects of BTC is due to the lack of strength and prospects of its competing assets.

Fiat (poor inflation hedge), Gold (security risk, difficulty transporting it, new supply), equities (mind/market share risk, disruption risk…), …..

 

in a perfect world no one would need to own BTC. 
 

if fiat had zero inflation, for many folks savings would just be money in checking/savings account. The productivity increase alone will give them comfortable retirement.

if fiat had zero inflation, for many folks savings would just be money in checking/savings account. The productivity increase alone will give them comfortable retirement.

You write of BTC as if it has no risks and is the perfect solution to whatever issues you believe it resolves.  On this we disagree. 

[Vish_ram]

I never talked about BTC risks. It doesn’t mean it has no risks. 
 

At the moment BTC is the Rai stone of the world. 
 

To not invest in MSFT 35 years saying there are risks when thr firm has growing revenues, market share etc is foolish. 
 

BTC is the best of all Rai stones, has growing mind/market share. 

[73 Reds]

26 minutes ago, Vish_ram said:

I never talked about BTC risks. It doesn’t mean it has no risks. 
 

At the moment BTC is the Rai stone of the world. 
 

To not invest in MSFT 35 years saying there are risks when thr firm has growing revenues, market share etc is foolish. 
 

BTC is the best of all Rai stones, has growing mind/market share. 

For me the issue boils down to a simple premise:  The dollar is a contractual, legal obligation by the issuer as to the note holder.  BTC's value is subject to the whim of the last greater fool.  I have far more faith in the former than the latter.  There are also far better ways to hedge against inflation than BTC.  The five or ten of you on this Board who disagree are clearly entitled to your opinions.  

Edited April 17, 2025 by 73 Reds
missed word

[Vish_ram]

In a few decades from now, there'll be a Quantum coin (QC) created by Mitsubishi Yamamoto (pseudonym of course). It’ll have better characteristics than BTC. BTC value would've been 50T by then. The puritans who own Gold, BTC will argue vehemently. The board member "87 Orange” will call the QC coin holders delusional and say it is gambling. 

 

As USD fiat inflates at 10%/annum, QC will slowly go to 15T, BTC to 100T. 

[73 Reds]

Just now, Vish_ram said:

In a few decades from now, there'll be a Quantum coin (QC) created by Mitsubishi Yamamoto (pseudonym of course). It’ll have better characteristics than BTC. BTC value would've been 50T by then. The puritans who own Gold, BTC will argue vehemently. The board member "87 Orange” will call the QC coin holders delusional and say it is gambling. 

 

As USD fiat inflates at 10%/annum, QC will slowly go to 15T, BTC to 100T. 

Certainly technologies like Blockchain, AI, Quantum, etc.. all seem to have amazing uses and future value.  IMO an artificial currency is not one of them.

[SharperDingaan]

44 minutes ago, Vish_ram said:

I never talked about BTC risks. It doesn’t mean it has no risks. 
 

At the moment BTC is the Rai stone of the world. 
 

To not invest in MSFT 35 years saying there are risks when thr firm has growing revenues, market share etc is foolish. 
 

BTC is the best of all Rai stones, has growing mind/market share. 

 

If you have a long runway, you have both the ability and need to take on risk, and really need to view BTC as a long-term asset of choice. Whatever you think of its prospects, the reality is that while you don't know what will occur, there is a strong probability that investing against BTC adoption is unlikely to go well. Ultimately, NOT INVESTING, it is a passive choice to remain long-term poor, by not evolving with the times. C'est la vie.

 

If you have a short runway, you do NOT have both the ability to take on risk, and need to view BTC as a toxic asset. The goal is capital preservation and income generation; whatever the longer term prospects of BTC are, is irrelevant. Ultimately, it is an active choice to minimize risk until you croak. C'est la vie.

 

Of course, the two points of view are irreconcilable, and just reflect different life stage.

 

SD

 

 

Edited April 17, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[james22]

31 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

BTC's value is subject to the whim of the last greater fool.

 

The most powerful computer network on Earth has no value?

[james22]

23 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

If you have a short runway, you do NOT have both the ability to take on risk, and need to view BTC as a toxic asset. The goal is capital preservation and income generation; whatever the longer term prospects of BTC are, is irrelevant. Ultimately, it is an active choice to minimize risk until you croak. C'est la vie.

 

I'm 61 and retired.

 

I can afford to take risk (or not), but it's actually the short-term I'm most excited by.

 

The opportunity cost of missing out on the steep part of the adoption curve will be high.

[james22]

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

I don't need to repeat the difference between a going concern and BTC.  

 

Is there anything that would convince you of bitcoin's adoption?

 

The SBR announcing they have bought additional bitcoin or the Loomis bill passing?

 

Another major country or Mag7 company buying?

 

Vanguard trading the BTC ETFs?

 

Buffett buying bitcoin?

[73 Reds]

20 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Is there anything that would convince you of bitcoin's adoption?

 

The SBR announcing they have bought additional bitcoin or the Loomis bill passing?

 

Another major country or Mag7 company buying?

 

Vanguard trading the BTC ETFs?

 

Buffett buying bitcoin?

The internet was adopted quickly.  No one owns it and everyone uses it.  Going concerns grew more profitable because of it.  

[wachtwoord]

3 hours ago, james22 said:

 

Now we're repeating ourselves from just days ago.

 

Again, was early Amazon/Google/Facebook/Netflix only speculative?

 

Or were they investable assets to those with a better understanding?

 

It's a useless discussion. Every investment based on a free cash flow analysis is speculative too (you speculate those free cash flows materialize). Investments based on undervalued relative to tangible book or even cash and cash equivalents? You are still speculating those assets will get liquidated for more than you paid within a reasonable amount of time and without too much leaking.

 

People tend to use the term speculate to mean making assumptions about the future. By definition everyone speculates.

 

Graham used another definition in his famous book everyone here has read (I hope). By that definition it IS investing as long as you believe what you buy IS worth more than you are paying for it (margin of safety and all). Using that definition buying Bitcoin is investing if you buy it because you reasonably assume it's undervalued. If you are just buying because you think someone else will buy it from you for more you are speculating though. Most "crypto" investors are speculators (and as such tend to sell when prices drop). But the same is true for the stock market (admittedly likely to a lesser degree).

[james22]

4 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

The internet was adopted quickly.  No one owns it and everyone uses it.  Going concerns grew more profitable because of it.  

 

So now you're convinced of bitcoin's adoption?

 

Because the internet is an example of the adoption of something other than a going concern (your previous objection)?

 

 

 

[Paarslaars]

US investors seem to be scared right now though... BTC goes up every day only to come down when US markets open.

Seems like consistent pull-out from the ETFs.

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, james22 said:

 

So now you're convinced of bitcoin's adoption?

 

Because the internet is an example of the adoption of something other than a going concern (your previous objection)?

 

 

 

@James you want to put words in my mouth.  Just read the words I wrote.  The internet was quickly adoped and has tremendous value but neither I, nor anyone else owns it.  Going concerns (i.e. businesses) can use it to generate profits.   Otherwise, we're going in circles.  Not telling you or anyone what to own, or why.  Just stating my opinion.  Cheers!

[james22]

Just now, 73 Reds said:

@James you want to put words in my mouth.  Just read the words I wrote.  The internet was quickly adoped and has tremendous value but neither I, nor anyone else owns it.  Going concerns (i.e. businesses) can use it to generate profits.   Otherwise, we're going in circles.  Not telling you or anyone what to own, or why.  Just stating my opinion.  Cheers!

 

And going concerns will grow more profitable because of bitcoin.

 

Funny how you guys will never share what it would take to convince you.

 

If you'll never be convinced, WTF are you wasting your time in this thread?

[73 Reds]

Just now, james22 said:

 

And going concerns will grow more profitable because of bitcoin.

 

Funny how you guys will never share what it would take to convince you.

 

If you'll never be convinced, WTF are you wasting your time in this thread?

No; going concerns will benefit from blockchain technology.  In fact they already do.  That's the distinction.