Cryptocurrencies

[SnarkyPuppy]

NFTs are definitely quite bubbly (wrong side of Gartner hype cycle).  With that said, plenty of extremely interesting opportunities across crypto right now - we've discussed BTC's thesis at length but the DeFi space is fascinating and worth checking out -- if for nothing more than intellectual curiosity. 

 

People on this board mocking how dumb crypto is (essentially implying superior IQ and analytical abilities) without spending any meaningful time understanding the space strongly resembles the value-above-all crowd mocking anyone paying >15x FCF regardless of quality just a few years ago.  Most of the space is extremely nascent and 95% of projects will fail (similar to what happened in '90s) but if you're not absolutely fascinated by a meritocracy based pseudonymous developer ecosystem attempting to rebuild the financial system using first principles, you're just being stubborn.

 

What FCF ratio are investors paying for crypto now?

 

One example - some of the decentralized exchanges have tokens which receive trading fees as dividends, programmatically guaranteed via smart contracts.  Recently traded for 20-30x earnings and growing ~100% a month.  Absolutely can be valued using using DCF but doesn't fit your narrative - so don't look further!

[SharperDingaan]

At a high-level, a database record is simply a row of elements. and often a special case of object (Plain Old Data Structure). When querying you are either pulling up the object (record) itself, or elements within it. When stored, the elements themselves are stored on a database, either private (most often) or public.

 

At a high-level, replace the 'record' with the genesis block of a blockchain. Replace the 'record elements' with the smart contract information within each block. Access those equivalent 'elements' via the Merkle Tree. No difference in the output, big difference in the architecture, and very specific to the business application. No further comment.

 

So what? All the block data is second party verified, it's immutable, it's accurate, but not necessarily complete. The 'database' is accessing (in near real time) every blockchain on a public ledger, anywhere in the world, and every new block being added, 24/7. Scale, immutability, and fast processing time - hell of a combination!

 

Application? If you could access ALL the world's weather reporting data in near real time, wouldn't your weather report be a lot more accurate? Where/how the weather forecast is done materially changes, as does the job of your local weather bunny on TV. Anything where a GLOBAL view is required - this is pretty much the way you have to go.

 

Not going to happen tomorrow, or impact investment decisions in the medium term, but it IS coming.

Not a bad thing.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

[RichardGibbons]

fast processing time

 

I get what you're saying for the rest of it, but I'm not quite sure how this applies. Wouldn't it have a much slower processing time than almost any other database structure in existence?

 

Like, if you can't really consider a record committed until 51% agree on the record, doesn't that in effect make it a very slow database? Or am I missing something?

[Jurgis]

fast processing time

 

I get what you're saying for the rest of it, but I'm not quite sure how this applies. Wouldn't it have a much slower processing time than almost any other database structure in existence?

 

Like, if you can't really consider a record committed until 51% agree on the record, doesn't that in effect make it a very slow database? Or am I missing something?

 

But you really need that 51% agreement, since those weather station guys might decide to double commit or double spend their weather station data! That would be a weather prediction disaster!  ::)

 

Never mind that anyone doing weather predictions already gets all the data in pretty much real-time without borkchain.

[SharperDingaan]

Re: Fast Processing time.

It is only reading existing blocks that are already on the chain, typically not everything, and Merkle Tree's speed up the process somewhat.  Most would expect early versions to be slower than a private DB, simply because its new; the main issue being that it is reading ALL blockchains in a very big universe, whereas the DB is reading from a much smaller (and contained) universe.

 

Obviously, if you query the whole world - it is going to take your query longer to run.

Point here is that blockchain is being incorporated into the DB as just another special case of object PODS. Speeds going up as/when the query's can be restricted to smaller and very targeted universes (Hyperledger functionality).

 

SD

 

[rkbabang]

Tim Ferriss interviewed Vitalik Buterin.

https://tim.blog/2021/03/08/vitalik-buterin-naval-ravikant/

[ValueArb]

Re: Fast Processing time.

It is only reading existing blocks that are already on the chain, typically not everything, and Merkle Tree's speed up the process somewhat.  Most would expect early versions to be slower than a private DB, simply because its new; the main issue being that it is reading ALL blockchains in a very big universe, whereas the DB is reading from a much smaller (and contained) universe.

 

Obviously, if you query the whole world - it is going to take your query longer to run.

Point here is that blockchain is being incorporated into the DB as just another special case of object PODS. Speeds going up as/when the query's can be restricted to smaller and very targeted universes (Hyperledger functionality).

 

SD

 

Again this doesn't make much sense to me. Fast trees are basically what databases are. While reading from a blockchain may be almost as fast as a regular database (certainly it can never be as fast as reading from same size of database), writing to a block-chain is immensely slower.

 

Again, for the tiny universe of applications that need a public database cryptographically secure from manipulation, block chains are great. For the rest of the world, they are a waste of computer resources.

[ValueArb]

People on this board mocking how dumb crypto is (essentially implying superior IQ and analytical abilities) without spending any meaningful time understanding the space strongly resembles the value-above-all crowd mocking anyone paying >15x FCF regardless of quality just a few years ago.  Most of the space is extremely nascent and 95% of projects will fail (similar to what happened in '90s) but if you're not absolutely fascinated by a meritocracy based pseudonymous developer ecosystem attempting to rebuild the financial system using first principles, you're just being stubborn.

 

One example - some of the decentralized exchanges have tokens which receive trading fees as dividends, programmatically guaranteed via smart contracts.  Recently traded for 20-30x earnings and growing ~100% a month.  Absolutely can be valued using using DCF but doesn't fit your narrative - so don't look further!

 

So I get tokens in a "currency" without any backing in tangible assets or intrinsic value? It's obviously great when cryptocurrencies go up in price, but if their prices were to decline say, 90%, after the stimulus money is all spent, thats not a return at all.

 

And I'm not saying crypto is dumb, I'm trying to figure out how it's not naked speculation.  Of course I'm fascinated and looking for reasons I may be wrong. But no one has yet given me any reasons that I am wrong that I can actually understand.

 

And the only narrative here is the "cryptocurrencies are the future and block-chains can do everything". It's an appeal to motive dodge that when you are unable to answer questions to just say "oh you will never believe it within your narrative".

[ValueArb]

At a high-level, a database record is simply a row of elements. and often a special case of object (Plain Old Data Structure). When querying you are either pulling up the object (record) itself, or elements within it. When stored, the elements themselves are stored on a database, either private (most often) or public.

 

At a high-level, replace the 'record' with the genesis block of a blockchain. Replace the 'record elements' with the smart contract information within each block. Access those equivalent 'elements' via the Merkle Tree. No difference in the output, big difference in the architecture, and very specific to the business application. No further comment.

 

So what? All the block data is second party verified, it's immutable, it's accurate, but not necessarily complete. The 'database' is accessing (in near real time) every blockchain on a public ledger, anywhere in the world, and every new block being added, 24/7. Scale, immutability, and fast processing time - hell of a combination!

 

Application? If you could access ALL the world's weather reporting data in near real time, wouldn't your weather report be a lot more accurate? Where/how the weather forecast is done materially changes, as does the job of your local weather bunny on TV. Anything where a GLOBAL view is required - this is pretty much the way you have to go.

 

Not going to happen tomorrow, or impact investment decisions in the medium term, but it IS coming.

Not a bad thing.

 

SD

 

 

If all weather reporting data were encoded into the blockchain, it would NOT be verifiable. The block chain cannot give you any more confidence that a weather station in Minsk submitted it's data accurately or not, only the confidence that whatever data they submitted (accurate or not) hadn't been modified.

 

And if the data is submitted to an SQL database, it would be available faster. How much faster obviously dependent upon cryptographic hashing times. I get that in the case of the SQL database you have to have an organization to host the database and trust they won't modify the data between submission and retrieval. But how often is decentralization that useful? How often have we found fraudulent changes to weather data?

[LC]

Perhaps it would be an instructive exercise to create a ledger (heh) of the best use cases for a blockchain/crypto-ledger.

 

To me, the best use case seems to be public asset ownership records (home deeds, car deeds, etc.). Followed by semi-private asset ownership records.

[SharperDingaan]

The intent is NOT to write, it's READ only, and ONLY of existing blocks.

Zero involvement with the process of adding blocks, therefore relatively fast. but unlikely to ever be as fast as a private DB.

 

Data doesn't get into a block unless it is agreed by a 2nd party using their private key. In a DB, the weather station sensor would write to the DB directly, without any independent verification; it could be utter sh1te (broken sensor). With a blockchain, someone else has to use their private key (verify) or the block doesn't chain. On balance, data is SLOWER to chain onto the block, but MORE reliance can be placed upon it. Of course, a sh1te verifier, and you have sh1te data; same as a sh1te sensor writing to the DB.

 

Ultimately to use a DB; you have to trust its data, in return for speed and capacity. Whereas a PUBLIC blockchain, assumes everyone is corrupt, hence the protocols. Where corruption is a possibility, blockchain is preferable over processing speed.

 

A weather forecaster would simply read blockchain data into a standard DB, read/write to that database, and archive the periods records. Repeat daily, and use the archive for predictive purposes. Just a different approach.

 

Ultimately it's about the data quality, and how much you trust it.

DB 'evolution' around its biggest weakness, bad data.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

[Parsad]

NFTs are definitely quite bubbly (wrong side of Gartner hype cycle).  With that said, plenty of extremely interesting opportunities across crypto right now - we've discussed BTC's thesis at length but the DeFi space is fascinating and worth checking out -- if for nothing more than intellectual curiosity. 

 

People on this board mocking how dumb crypto is (essentially implying superior IQ and analytical abilities) without spending any meaningful time understanding the space strongly resembles the value-above-all crowd mocking anyone paying >15x FCF regardless of quality just a few years ago.  Most of the space is extremely nascent and 95% of projects will fail (similar to what happened in '90s) but if you're not absolutely fascinated by a meritocracy based pseudonymous developer ecosystem attempting to rebuild the financial system using first principles, you're just being stubborn.

 

I don't think anyone is mocking crypto itself...especially not me...I've followed the stuff before most of you even heard of it...PDH nearly bought a crypto related company 6 years ago (buy the infrastructure, not the currency).  But I'm almost certain that this current batch of crypto (not supported by anything except an artificial scarcity of digital tokens), is not going to end well. 

 

Crypto will be the back bone of all financial transactions some time in the future, not dissimilar to how new the internet was 20 years ago and how completely enveloping it is today.  But we aren't there yet, and this current batch of crap is is exactly that...crap...think of it as the the Apple Macintosh in its time compared to the iPhone today!  One was famous and novel, one was ubiquitous and our life revolves around it.  Cheers!

[Jurgis]

The intent is NOT to write, it's READ only, and ONLY of existing blocks.

Zero involvement with the process of adding blocks, therefore relatively fast. but unlikely to ever be as fast as a private DB.

 

Data doesn't get into a block unless it is agreed by a 2nd party using their private key. In a DB, the weather station sensor would write to the DB directly, without any independent verification; it could be utter sh1te (broken sensor). With a blockchain, someone else has to use their private key (verify) or the block doesn't chain. On balance, data is SLOWER to chain onto the block, but MORE reliance can be placed upon it. Of course, a sh1te verifier, and you have sh1te data; same as a sh1te sensor writing to the DB.

 

Ultimately to use a DB; you have to trust its data, in return for speed and capacity. Whereas a PUBLIC blockchain, assumes everyone is corrupt, hence the protocols. Where corruption is a possibility, blockchain is preferable over processing speed.

 

A weather forecaster would simply read blockchain data into a standard DB, read/write to that database, and archive the periods records. Repeat daily, and use the archive for predictive purposes. Just a different approach.

 

Ultimately it's about the data quality, and how much you trust it.

DB 'evolution' around its biggest weakness, bad data.

 

SD

 

So now you are introducing another (human?) actor into each write of weather station data. Did you consider the cost of this? Did you consider delay? I thought you wanted a real-time weather data. Now you are delaying it.

Even if you are suggesting automated verification on write, it still delays the write. Also who is going to do the verification? And how is that different from centralized validation/verification that could use a regular DB and does not require blockchain?

 

I understand that this could work in other domains perhaps. IMO your example with weather stations is not a good one though. Weather domain is not risky enough to be concerned about double writes, erroneous writes, etc. Errors are expected and anyone using data usually cleans the data on input. Yeah, that's unneeded overhead, cleaning on write is better if done well. I don't know if there's already clean-on-write for this data.

 

Also, yeah, there is some reflexivity with blockchain solutions. People/companies/institutions may implement things using blockchain just because it's sexy and on the wave and therefore they have enthusiasm and possibly budget while implementing using DBs would be boring/no-enthusiasm/no-budget. In this respect weather station example might be good: NOAA probably has limited budget to provide free, validated, real-time weather data. If some organizations got the sexy/enthusiasm/some-money bug, they might be able to push through blockchain solution while they would not be able to push through regular DB solution. Maybe.

So I would not be surprised to see some blockchain "successes" just because of that.  ::)

 

Edit:

A weather forecaster would simply read blockchain data into a standard DB, read/write to that database, and archive the periods records.

 

OK, I'm nitpicking here... but then the weather forecaster's DB can be borked...  ;D They should be prohibited from reading blockchain data into non-blockchain DB.  ;)

[Gregmal]

Took a bit off the BTC holdings and bought a few Michael Jordan autos(real, hard signed ones, not NFT junk).....is it real yet? #asset allocationFTW

[SharperDingaan]

Nothing prevents the 2nd verifier from being a 'bot', which it will be.

If the reported data is the same as it was over the last two recordings, it doesn't verify the block, and it doesn't chain. Could be the sensor is buried in snow/ice - don't care, it's sending bad data, and it doesn't chain. No humans involved, no manipulation of data (scrubbing), therefore trusted.

 

Practically, the globes sensors would be queried once/twice a day at most. The read just capturing new records since the last read, and as at a set time (GMT) - there is no waiting for a new block to chain - it either has or it hasn't. The sensor itself could be in space, sea, or land, and just pinging once/twice a day. And only periodically, depending on the local condition.

 

It's just a different approach, 'not invented here'.

Preferred for a great many global applications, not so much for others.

 

SD

 

   

[ValueArb]

Nothing prevents the 2nd verifier from being a 'bot', which it will be.

If the reported data is the same as it was over the last two recordings, it doesn't verify the block, and it doesn't chain. Could be the sensor is buried in snow/ice - don't care, it's sending bad data, and it doesn't chain. No humans involved, no manipulation of data (scrubbing), therefore trusted.

 

Practically, the globes sensors would be queried once/twice a day at most. The read just capturing new records since the last read, and as at a set time (GMT) - there is no waiting for a new block to chain - it either has or it hasn't. The sensor itself could be in space, sea, or land, and just pinging once/twice a day. And only periodically, depending on the local condition.

 

It's just a different approach, 'not invented here'.

Preferred for a great many global applications, not so much for others.

 

SD

 

 

 

So it's a trustworthy blockchain full of data you can't trust?

[SharperDingaan]

So it's a trustworthy blockchain full of data you can't trust?

 

It's full of data verified by a second source, that cannot be changed - a lot better than data coming from a DB in a corrupt country. Doesn't mean that the data is right, anymore than the data in a DB is right. We just don't want to hear it.

 

SD

 

[ValueArb]

So it's a trustworthy blockchain full of data you can't trust?

 

It's full of data verified by a second source, that cannot be changed - a lot better than data coming from a DB in a corrupt country. Doesn't mean that the data is right, anymore than the data in a DB is right. We just don't want to hear it.

 

SD

 

I see what you are saying, being able to know that a set of specific data for a problem is unchanged can be a very useful thing. I'm not saying it doesn't have uses outside of CryptoCurrencies, but I'm still struggling to see a wide or valuable set of use cases.

 

And I'd really like to. Because then I'd build one.

[SharperDingaan]

So it's a trustworthy blockchain full of data you can't trust?

 

It's full of data verified by a second source, that cannot be changed - a lot better than data coming from a DB in a corrupt country. Doesn't mean that the data is right, anymore than the data in a DB is right. We just don't want to hear it.

 

SD

 

I see what you are saying, being able to know that a set of specific data for a problem is unchanged can be a very useful thing. I'm not saying it doesn't have uses outside of CryptoCurrencies, but I'm still struggling to see a wide or valuable set of use cases.

 

And I'd really like to. Because then I'd build one.

 

There are a lot of them, but I can't disclose.

However, think along the lines of global fish stocks, agriculture, pollution, etc. ... to whom that data might be useful, and how it might be applied? Weather feeds into thousands of daily local forecasts (worldwide) each paying an access fee, farm policy, insurance, and all more productive at a lower cost than today ......  ;)

 

Put up satellites for weather observation ... when they aren't observing weather, they are beaming internet (or both)?

More satellites, the lower the unit cost. Ability to read blockchain records via a DB? a multiplier.

 

SD

 

 

[ValueArb]

Former Crypto Firm Official Was a U.K. Fugitive, Bankruptcy Examiner Says

A court-appointed examiner says Cred failed to perform due diligence on its investments and to uncover the worrisome past of a former executive

Cryptocurrency investment platform Cred Inc. unwittingly put a convicted financial criminal identified by the U.K. as a fugitive in charge of raising and deploying the firm’s capital before its collapse into bankruptcy, a court-appointed examiner said.

 

An examiner’s report filed Monday in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Wilmington, Del., said that Cred failed to keep reliable records, properly track customer funds, perform due diligence on the firm’s investments or uncover the “extremely worrisome past” of former Chief Capital Officer James Alexander, who was fired last June.

...

 

Cred in bankruptcy filings has blamed Mr. Alexander for some of its financial troubles, accusing him of making off with bitcoin valued at millions of dollars.

...

 

Mr. Alexander filed for personal bankruptcy last month amid intensifying scrutiny during Cred’s bankruptcy proceedings of his dealings with the company. He said in court filings in his own bankruptcy case that he and Cred are undergoing a “business divorce” and that he transferred the bitcoin to an account he controlled to maintain the operations of Cred Capital.

 

The examiner’s report said that Mr. Alexander was convicted in December 2007 in the U.K. “for crimes related to illegal money transfers, for which he was sentenced to three years and four months in prison” in England.

 

“At the time of his incarceration, there was a prison break at this facility,” the report said. “Mr. Alexander has been identified by the U.K. government as a fugitive.”

...

 

Founded by former PayPal Holdings Inc. managers and based in San Mateo, Calif., Cred operated as a financial-services platform to give cryptocurrency holders ways to invest those assets with Cred or borrow against them. After Cred’s bankruptcy filing last November, the examiner was appointed to look into how and why the firm went under after taking in roughly $135 million in customer funds.

 

The examiner said currency was allowed to move to overseas entities without the legal setup to retrieve it when needed. Customer assets were commingled without a method for determining which assets were deposited by whom, while certain accounting information kept in spreadsheets wasn’t regularly updated, according to the report. The examiner reported the state of Cred’s records to be “disorganized and incomplete.” Cred’s problems largely stemmed from failures in corporate leadership, but Mr. Alexander’s participation in poor decision-making is a recurring theme, the report said.

...

 

A liquidation analysis of the business estimated that unsecured creditors would recover about 30 cents on the dollar of what they are owed, according to a Cred bankruptcy filing.

 

The examiner said Mr. Alexander, despite a court order to do so, hadn’t returned all the funds he transferred out of Cred. Cred and its unsecured creditors’ committee have alleged during the bankruptcy proceedings that Mr. Alexander misappropriated from the firm at least 225 bitcoin, now valued at roughly $12 million, while he worked there. Mr. Alexander has returned roughly 50 bitcoin and $2.8 million in proceeds from liquidated bitcoin, according to the examiner’s report.

 

Write to Becky Yerak at becky.yerak@wsj.com

 

 

[ValueArb]

The blockchain has one use it’s apparently perfect for, scams. This will be a constant drag on the market.

 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/man-lost-560000-worth-of-bitcoin-elon-musk-scam-bbc-2021-3

 

A man in Germany says he lost bitcoins worth $560,000 by falling for a scammer posing as Elon Musk, the BBC reported.

 

The man from Cologne — whom the BBC gave a pseudonym — described giving away his fortune in the mistaken belief that Musk would double his money.

 

The BBC said his loss was the largest single amount recorded by a Dutch group that tracks so-called giveaway scams.

[SnarkyPuppy]

The blockchain has one use it’s apparently perfect for, scams. This will be a constant drag on the market.

 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/man-lost-560000-worth-of-bitcoin-elon-musk-scam-bbc-2021-3

 

A man in Germany says he lost bitcoins worth $560,000 by falling for a scammer posing as Elon Musk, the BBC reported.

 

The man from Cologne — whom the BBC gave a pseudonym — described giving away his fortune in the mistaken belief that Musk would double his money.

 

The BBC said his loss was the largest single amount recorded by a Dutch group that tracks so-called giveaway scams.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

[Investmentacct]

Precursor nod prior to Oracle of Omaha may change stance on topic of $BTC

https://markets.businessinsider.com/amp/news/investor-howard-marks-more-positive-bitcoin-emerging-market-currency-2021-3-1030213955

[TwoCitiesCapital]

The blockchain has one use it’s apparently perfect for, scams. This will be a constant drag on the market.

 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/man-lost-560000-worth-of-bitcoin-elon-musk-scam-bbc-2021-3

 

A man in Germany says he lost bitcoins worth $560,000 by falling for a scammer posing as Elon Musk, the BBC reported.

 

The man from Cologne — whom the BBC gave a pseudonym — described giving away his fortune in the mistaken belief that Musk would double his money.

 

The BBC said his loss was the largest single amount recorded by a Dutch group that tracks so-called giveaway scams.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

 

You can't fix stupid. Plenty of people lost cash money to Nigerian princes over email. Doesn't mean cash is bad.

[Parsad]

The blockchain has one use it’s apparently perfect for, scams. This will be a constant drag on the market.

 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/man-lost-560000-worth-of-bitcoin-elon-musk-scam-bbc-2021-3

 

A man in Germany says he lost bitcoins worth $560,000 by falling for a scammer posing as Elon Musk, the BBC reported.

 

The man from Cologne — whom the BBC gave a pseudonym — described giving away his fortune in the mistaken belief that Musk would double his money.

 

The BBC said his loss was the largest single amount recorded by a Dutch group that tracks so-called giveaway scams.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

 

You can't fix stupid. Plenty of people lost cash money to Nigerian princes over email. Doesn't mean cash is bad.

 

 

+1!  Hilarious!  Cheers!