GLP-1 disruption

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-03/barclays-recommends-shorting-fast-food-credit-because-of-ozempic?srnd=premium&leadSource=uverify wall

 

"Drugs used for weight loss like Ozempic pose a real risk to companies ranging from fast food restaurants to cigarette makers, and credit market prices don’t fully reflect the potential downside, according to a report from Barclays strategists. Pharmaceuticals known as GLP-1 agonists help people lose weight while anecdotal evidence suggests they also cut urges to consume addictive substances, including alcohol, and cigarettes. The growing popularity of the drugs could hurt demand for companies including PepsiCo Inc., the maker of Pepsi soda and Lay’s potato chips, McDonald’s Corp., and Altria Group Inc,, the cigarette maker, according to Barclays strategists led by Jigar Patel in a note on Tuesday."

 

Not used to think about a lot of these brands/companies as disruptable:). Does all this really could be something real and meaningful?

[CorpRaider]

I'ma fade that one.

[Sweet]

Ozempic appears to be associated with depression.  Not sure it’s the wonder drug claimed.  Plus, a lot of people enjoy nice food, myself included.

[Cor]

I know somehow who used to promote a GLP-1 agonist competing with Ozempic and made by Eli Lilly. I believe those drugs help greatly with weight loss but are always co-administered with a strong recommendation to diet and exercise (both of which are considered first line therapy whereas Ozempic is secondary).

In practice most patients just don’t do the dieting and exercise very well. This is key. What happens is they take these meds, lose weight and instead of also eating less junk food, they actually increase their intake of junk food because why not?

[Gregmal]

Is it that hard to just walk 10,000-15,000 steps a day and stick to 3 meals? Even if 2-3 of those meals are fast food you’re probably ok.
 

It’s like everywhere you look, government spending, personal consumption, even the sizes of the dishes you see at restaurants, cars, the obsession with social media, the shoes people wear these days….it just screams no self control or discipline.

[Castanza]

I thought there were a bunch of side effects with Ozempic? 
 

Loss of bone mass, cartilage, tissue etc. There was also a UK report about thyroid issues etc. 

 

Something tells me this is going to be too good to be true. Plus if you’re a guy why tf would you take Ozempic when you could just get TRT online shipped to your house lose weight and get shredded?  Side effects are generally manageable if you don’t go nuts and you can still pretty much eat whatever you want. 

[SharperDingaan]

A lot of the consumption is simply boredom and availability; rich mans disease. Reduce the money that people have, and providers will just reduce the package size while charging the same. The population gradually gets healthier as it eats less, but no change to total revenue.

 

SD

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Is it that hard to just walk 10,000-15,000 steps a day and stick to 3 meals? Even if 2-3 of those meals are fast food you’re probably ok.
 

It’s like everywhere you look, government spending, personal consumption, even the sizes of the dishes you see at restaurants, cars, the obsession with social media, the shoes people wear these days….it just screams no self control or discipline.

 

How do you think empires fall?

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Is it that hard to just walk 10,000-15,000 steps a day and stick to 3 meals? Even if 2-3 of those meals are fast food you’re probably ok.
 

It’s like everywhere you look, government spending, personal consumption, even the sizes of the dishes you see at restaurants, cars, the obsession with social media, the shoes people wear these days….it just screams no self control or discipline.

Get back to us once you are over 50 and let us know how this works for you, especially with 2/3 meals being junk food.

[Castanza]

22 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Get back to us once you are over 50 and let us know how this works for you, especially with 2/3 meals being junk food.

Start following Gen McCrystal routine. 1hr of jogging in the morning and 1 big meal a day. 

[Guest]

37 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Get back to us once you are over 50 and let us know how this works for you, especially with 2/3 meals being junk food.

 

 

We all make our own choices. Mark Sisson is 70 and still in awesome shape. 

[Gregmal]

I mean if you stay under 2000 calories a day it’s incredibly hard to gain weight, especially with modest movement. The problem is, go to any restaurant, and you’ll see everyone’s been conditioned to eat 1500 calories a meal. And then snack in between. 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, stahleyp said:

 

 

We all make our own choices. Mark Sisson is 70 and still in awesome shape. 

Sure he is, but he is hardly the norm. He certainly does more than 10k steps and eating 3 meals with two of them being junk food.

 

Eating less than 2000 calories works too, but you would be surprised how little that is. For sure, you can forget any restaurant food or takeout. A pint of beer is about 200 calories. I think the average American eats more than 3200 calories daily.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Sure he is, but he is hardly the norm. He certainly does more than 10k steps and eating 3 meals with two of them being junk food.

 

Eating less than 2000 calories works too, but you would be surprised how little that is. For sure, you can forget any restaurant food or takeout. A pint of beer is about 200 calories. I think the average American eats more than 3200 calories daily.

 

The "norm" in America is definitely abnormal, historically speaking. New research suggests even 4,000 stepscan do a lot of good.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/09/well/move/steps-walking-health-benefits.html

 

All I'm saying is that it's not that hard to be in relatively decent shape. If a 70 year old can still do what Sisson does...a 50 yead old should be able to climb steps without breathing hard.

[Gregmal]

It’s all just about routine and discipline. For a while I had a really easy one down. 
 

Breakfast, 4oz package smoked salmon and an avocado, 550 calories, costs less than $10.

 

Lunch, some variation of a chicken Caesar Salad, 650 calories, costs like $5.

 

Dinner, half pound of shrimp with a bit of rice or pasta. 600 calories, $12

 

3 Natty Light, 300 calories, $2.25

 

Was the shit. Might start again.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Gregmal

[UK]

So I agree with sentiment here, but again, just looking at the markets opinion on NOVO/LLY, not sure it is totally easy to dismiss this as only a fad, although, this is my natural inclination too. But if all people were rational and disciplined, the world already would look very differently? 

 

Also: https://www.wsj.com/health/pharma/weight-loss-drugs-obesity-e4bb2173

 

"Ozempic and similar drugs are transforming the world’s understanding of obesity. It isn’t so much about willpower: It’s about biology."

 

Also: https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2023/09/25/eating-fewer-calories-can-ward-off-ageing

 

But again, the question is not about personal choices or what is best to do for a rational person (as most here are anyway), but if this goes mainstream even for 20 or 30 per cent population level, what would be implications for different businesses, if any.

 

Edited October 4, 2023 by UK

[whatstheofficerproblem]

I think the case is the other way around. I trust the more than 5000 years of culinary evolution and instincts. Humans were put on this planet to eat, now if I as an ozempic user start to feel no urge to consume the fastfood menu, since I have a glp anyways, I would do so. GLPs are basically a shortcut to weight loss, and whenever humanity gets shortcuts, we abuse it. I expect this to be nothing different. For this to truly take effect the drug must become generic and cheap so that it is easily accessible to the common public.

[Guest]

9 hours ago, Gregmal said:

It’s all just about routine and discipline. For a while I had a really easy one down. 
 

Breakfast, 4oz package smoked salmon and an avocado, 550 calories, costs less than $10.

 

Lunch, some variation of a chicken Caesar Salad, 650 calories, costs like $5.

 

Dinner, half pound of shrimp with a bit of rice or pasta. 600 calories, $12

 

3 Natty Light, 300 calories, $2.25

 

Was the shit. Might start again.

 

Maybe I missed it but where are the doughtnuts and tacos?

[Guest]

For you guys who want a lot of "value" for the money:

 

https://www.tacobell.com/promotions/taco-lovers-pass

[Guest]

8 hours ago, UK said:

So I agree with sentiment here, but again, just looking at the markets opinion on NOVO/LLY, not sure it is totally easy to dismiss this as only a fad, although, this is my natural inclination too. But if all people were rational and disciplined, the world already would look very differently? 

 

Also: https://www.wsj.com/health/pharma/weight-loss-drugs-obesity-e4bb2173

 

"Ozempic and similar drugs are transforming the world’s understanding of obesity. It isn’t so much about willpower: It’s about biology."

 

Also: https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2023/09/25/eating-fewer-calories-can-ward-off-ageing

 

But again, the question is not about personal choices or what is best to do for a rational person (as most here are anyway), but if this goes mainstream even for 20 or 30 per cent population level, what would be implications for different businesses, if any.

 

 

As long as there aren't serious side affects, I don't think this will be a fad. If cigarette use can decline, fast food and that stuff can too. 

[thowed]

I suspect that this is one of those temporary dislocation opportunities to buy Consumer Snack companies cheaper than usual, while the Ozempic hype goes overboard.

 

I have no idea of the GLP-1 efficacy, but from crowd psychology it seems reasonable that people are getting over-excited about its effects in relation to snacking.

 

Similar sort of thing to 2021 when V & MA came down because they were going to be disrupted by BNPL and Crypto.

 

Anyways, snack cos aren't my favourite things generally, but at the right price, as 'bond proxies' you could arguably do a lot worse than Pepsi, Mondelez & possibly Hershey (as a US-only play).

 

 

 

 

 

[CorpRaider]

I know several people on it and the weight loss I have observed is remarkable.  Sounds like it has an effect similar to early bariatric surgery or something (feeling of fullness/nausea if you eat).  They say they don't even want wine/alcohol.  

Edited October 4, 2023 by CorpRaider

[Spekulatius]

10 minutes ago, thowed said:

I suspect that this is one of those temporary dislocation opportunities to buy Consumer Snack companies cheaper than usual, while the Ozempic hype goes overboard.

 

I have no idea of the GLP-1 efficacy, but from crowd psychology it seems reasonable that people are getting over-excited about its effects in relation to snacking.

 

Similar sort of thing to 2021 when V & MA came down because they were going to be disrupted by BNPL and Crypto.

 

Anyways, snack cos aren't my favourite things generally, but at the right price, as 'bond proxies' you could arguably do a lot worse than Pepsi, Mondelez & possibly Hershey (as a US-only play).

 

 

 

 

 

Well , it's clear that those people on GLP-1 drug lose weight because they are eating less (mostly). It does not seam that the weight loss is caused metabolic changes primarily. So the question is what will people on GLP-1 drugs be eating less? My guess fast food, snacks, candy and soda might be on the top of the list.

Then add to this that those stocks (HSY, PEP etc) are very very expensive historically - seems to me that the risk reward is not great for those stocks, even if the GLP-1 threat is overhyped.

[brobro777]

1 hour ago, stahleyp said:

 

Maybe I missed it but where are the doughtnuts and tacos?

 

Yea man how can you get proper nutrition without the pepperoni pizzas

 

haha

 

 

[Castanza]

Why is everyone assuming all these obese people will want to take GLP-1s for weight loss? There is a lot of “fat and happy” people out there who simply couldn’t be bothered and enjoy their daily fast food/soda. This also ignores the psychological aspect of fast food (addiction and comfort/coping).
 

The demographics and class structure doesn’t exactly line up with who is likely to buy or pursue these drugs imo. But I guess that could change based on accessibility and affordability. 

 

92% of cosmetic surgeries (breast, nose, lipo, tummy) in the US are for women. 
 

89% of liposuction patients are women

 

80% of gastric band surgeries are performed on women

 

~70% of the above are white women 

~15% African American 

 

Overwhelming majority of cosmetic surgeries are done by upper middle and upper class people. Trends heavily up as income rises. 

 

35% of women eat fast food daily

38% of men eat fast food daily
 

42% of  African-Americans eat fast food daily 

37% of Whites eat fast food daily 

35% of Hispanics eat fast food daily

30% of Asians eat fast food daily

 

The middle class eats the most fast food followed by low income and then the wealthy.