Is Europe becoming uninvestable?

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

I wish you all the best in Europe with you assimilation issues. You've taken on an enormous burden, so I hope you all can keep your way of life and avoid social unrest.

 

My in-laws in France (wife's family) are very unhappy about how it is all going.  Sweden's crime rates look awful. The UK looks precarious. From the outsider looking in - Germany looks bad.

I've no clue about Denmark or the rest.

 

For the USA - France & the UK look like a preview of what is coming here. Fortunately, our new President will make every effort to reverse it and stop the destruction of the country. Mexico and others must serve their citizens, as they have failed them: without the US escape valve, those governments would be in danger of falling.

 

Twenty some years ago, at a Wesco Meeting in Pasadena, Charlie Munger was asked what he feared most in the USA in regards to what might put our society in trouble. I was taken aback when he said "social unrest" - and I thought that was a strange comment, as that was never going to happen here. It happened in the 1960's when I was a kid - and I remember that period well. But we were well beyond that period - and so it couldn't happen again.

 

Little did I know how insightful Munger really was, until the last few years.

Social unrest is about the only thing that a real rich person fears, because money can not provide protection from this if it’s gets bad enough.

[John Hjorth]

On 1/5/2025 at 7:30 PM, Spekulatius said:

Social unrest is about the only thing that a real rich person fears, because money can not provide protection from this if it’s gets bad enough.

 

To me personally, this is true for European politics to the right, liberal or conservative, have this as an important element to take care of the not-so-well situated citizens, to avoid exactly that - social unrest - with the purpose to preserve existing societal structure.

[John Hjorth]

The Economist - Business - Way of the Viking [December 30^th 2024] : Why are Nordic companies so successful?

 

Subheader : From Lego to Novo Nordisk, many of Europe’s top firms come from the region.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

It's a special, and a bit weird, experience for me as a Nordic native [Dane] to read the article, because it touches matters and conditions, I really don't think about on ongoing basis, but just takes as given conditions.

 

We have a lot of good businesses, that are privately held by families or via foundations. Let me here just mention a few - more or less random : Lego, Danfoss, Grundfoss,  Salling Group [Bilka, Føtex, Netto], Bestseller. They are all multinational, but headquartered here in Denmark.

 

Then we have a bunch of family or foundation controlled businesses, that are listed : Novo Nordisk and Novonesis, A.P. Møller Mærsk A/S, Carlsberg, Coloplast, Lundbeck, William Demant, Rockwool etc. They are also all multinational, but headquartered here in Denmark.

 

All used to compete in international markets, as a basic existential condition.

 

What is special for both groups of companies, where foundations are involved in ownership, is how the ownership is structured and designed, based on legacy and existing legal  conditions, and foundation founders' thoughts as minted in foundation articles of association, bylaws, related to purpose :

 

1. Protecting and preserving control of founders' business, i.e. take over-protection,

2. Other, typical philantrophical, purposes.

3. Defined foundation entitlements to founders family and decendants.

 

These foundations are organized legally today as special type 'business foundation', are taxed according to company taxation, with taxable deduction for expenses to philantrophical activities, subject to special individual legislation, reporting, and regulatory oversight and control.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

If somebody asks me about how this works on overall basis, my aswer would be it works great.

[Blake Hampton]

The "poor" vastly outnumber the rich, and they're the ones that keep the system running at-large. You can only neglect them for so long before they reach a breaking point. An example, during the French revolution, the tax burden placed on farmers was so high that they couldn't afford to eat. The well-known saying:

 

"When the people shall have nothing more to eat, they will eat the rich."

- Jean-Jacques Rousseau

 

I'd agree that social unrest is one of the few fears of a rich man, it is one of the only times where he truly becomes powerless. It's essentially an arena where that one man is being pitted against an army.

So in our country's great wisdom and intellect, having realized that wealth inequality is arguably at it worst level in history, what have we chosen to do in order to fix it? We elected a man promising tariffs and corporate tax cuts.

 

The poor can also be dumb.

 

Edited Monday at 11:22 PM by Blake Hampton

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, Blake Hampton said:

We elected a man promising tariffs and corporate tax cuts.

 

The poor are dumb.

 

That's just dumb.

 

45% of Hispanics and 20% of Blacks elected that man, since their own party has ignored them for years. Biden/Harris unleashed disastrous inflation upon "the poor". And their own party called it "inflation protection act" - denying the devastating economic results.

 

The "poor" that are so dumb - just kicked out the party of "let them eat cake".

[Blake Hampton]

2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Biden/Harris unleashed disastrous inflation upon "the poor". And their own party called it "inflation protection act" - denying the devastating economic results.

 

https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans

 

Edited Monday at 11:27 PM by Blake Hampton

[Blake Hampton]

It's my mistake by generalizing the poor in saying that they "are dumb," I edited it to say that they can be.

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans

 

 

^^^^ I see - so there was no inflation , and it did not impact the poor.

 

Got it. 

[Spekulatius]

The poor are generally dumb. That why they are poor.

[Blake Hampton]

13 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The poor are generally dumb. That why they are poor.

I unfortunately agree but it's not always their fault completely. I'm tutoring one of my relatives in high-school math, and I soon figured out that she doesn't understand simple multiplication tables. She also grew up in foster care and went to bad schools.

 

Edited Monday at 11:52 PM by Blake Hampton

[cubsfan]

10 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The poor are generally dumb. That why they are poor.

 

We ought just take their rights away or put them in camps.

They don't really contribute anything anyway.

[Dinar]

The real travesty are:

a) lousy schools - 20% of kids in Chicago I think read at grade level.  Schools are being dumbed down.  I have seen it in the last 2 years at my son's blue ribbon public elementary on UWS in NYC.  

b) horrible curricula - no personal finance classes for instance.  

c) no vocational schools

d) immigration depressing wages and increasing rents

e) welfare that is so generous that it makes no sense for 20-30% of the country to work, and many who do work would be better off on the dole

f) incentivizing the people on the dole to have kids

g) prisons that don't rehabilitate and that don't teach useful skills so that released inmates can earn an honest living

h) Common sense needs to be taught.  You can do very well in life not knowing vector calculus, but hard to do well in life without common sense.  

[Red Lion]

On 1/5/2025 at 10:30 AM, Spekulatius said:

Social unrest is about the only thing that a real rich person fears, because money can not provide protection from this if it’s gets bad enough.

 

If you're rich enough you can get private security, and assets in other jurisdictions, and fast cars and planes and boats to reach them. Very few people would fall in this category though. 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Red Lion said:

 

If you're rich enough you can get private security, and assets in other jurisdictions, and fast cars and planes and boats to reach them. Very few people would fall in this category though. 

Privwte security to a certain degree but not for the really bad stuff . At some point, the private security could easily become your prison guards. Thats why the rich have escape pods like second citizenships and foreign assets, Swiss bank accounts etc.

Edited yesterday at 02:25 AM by Spekulatius

[thowed]

This thread is turning into the new politics thread.

 

- Some poor people are dumb.  Some rich people are dumb.

- Is Europe becoming investable?  No.  There are some great companies.  But I wouldn't buy the index - compare it now with 20 years ago, versus S&P now and 20 years ago.  Says it all for me.

 

Nothing to add.

[Spekulatius]

Injustice bought a few shares of Thales HO.PA yesterday. defense electronics, avionics and. security. trades at ~14x  earnings with an enormous order book. 
 

This investigation has depressed shares:

https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/group/investors/press_release/press-release
 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

Amazing with all the problems that the EU has, this (and usb chargers and too many men on boards) is what the EU is focusing on...

 

The EU has abandoned many principles of free thought and expression that blossomed Europe since The Enlightenment

 

EUSSR has a nice ring to it

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

Quote

"We are going to work with President Trump to push back on governments around the world that go after American companies in pushing American companies to censor more...Europe has an ever increasing number of laws institutionalizing censorship and making it difficult to build anything innovative there"

--Mark Zuckerberg

 

https://about.fb.com/news/2025/01/meta-more-speech-fewer-mistakes/

 

The European Commission needs to be challenged and its oppressive authority needs to be abolished.

 

I look forward to Americans yet again saving Europe from itself 

[cubsfan]

^^^ You got to pray for the Europeans to save their individual cultures from Brussels. 

 

Seeing what happened in the USA with gov/social media collusion the last few years was very revealing. I never thought that could happen here.

[Dalal.Holdings]

"You're free to express your views, but there are certain limits to that" --The EU today

 

Can't make this stuff up. Funny and sad at the same time.

[lnofeisone]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Injustice bought a few shares of Thales HO.PA yesterday. defense electronics, avionics and. security. trades at ~14x  earnings with an enormous order book. 
 

This investigation has depressed shares:

https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/group/investors/press_release/press-release
 

 

This is a fantastic idea. Added to my list to look into. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Injustice bought a few shares of Thales HO.PA yesterday. defense electronics, avionics and. security. trades at ~14x  earnings with an enormous order book. 
 

This investigation has depressed shares:

https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/group/investors/press_release/press-release
 

 

 

Are you annualizing the 6-month earnings? Just a quick look at the financials from free sights seems to suggest significant cyclicality to the earnings with the June half being 2x the amount of the other half? So closer to 20-21x earnings? 

[Dinar]

14 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Are you annualizing the 6-month earnings? Just a quick look at the financials from free sights seems to suggest significant cyclicality to the earnings with the June half being 2x the amount of the other half? So closer to 20-21x earnings? 

No, it is selling at something like 10x 2028  EPS forecasts and 14.7x 2025 EPS forecasts.  

[TwoCitiesCapital]

6 minutes ago, Dinar said:

No, it is selling at something like 10x 2028  EPS forecasts and 14.7x 2025 EPS forecasts.  

 

ah - ok. Didn't realize it was forward earnings that were being used. 

[John Hjorth]

9 hours ago, thowed said:

This thread is turning into the new politics thread. ...

 

... - Is Europe becoming investable?  No.  There are some great companies.  But I wouldn't buy the index - compare it now with 20 years ago, versus S&P now and 20 years ago.  Says it all for me.

 

Nothing to add.

 

Thank you, @thowed,

 

Agreed. And that's it.

 

I have tried to post in this topic, based on the above statement of yours, by providing several examples.