Is Europe becoming uninvestable?

[Dalal.Holdings]

10 minutes ago, Baklava said:

 

No, I wouldn't call these far-right policies. The majority of your points are simply conservative policies which should be covered by the Christian Democrats (CDU) and also were before Angela Merkel sleepwalked us out of nuclear energy and welcomed 1m Syrian refugees into the country.
 

 

Well then I hope it's covered by others who seek power. The thing that worries me about Merz/CDU is that he doesn't seem to understand Keynes and is an austerity guy

 

I also worry that if you keep electing moderate parties, you continue with the "status quo" meaning yielding authority to the European Commission, you continue to deny Eurobonds, you continue to let the environmentalists run the show, etc etc.

 

I think Germany may need a stronger dose of medicine to change from the path it's on...

 

Edited December 31, 2024 by Dalal.Holdings

[cubsfan]

Whatever is happening in Germany, the USA needs to avoid. 

 

https://amgreatness.com/2025/01/02/germanys-new-morgenthau-plan/

 

Such an economic powerhouse, but it's miscalculations should serve as a warning to the USA.

[Baklava]

39 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Whatever is happening in Germany, the USA needs to avoid. 

 

https://amgreatness.com/2025/01/02/germanys-new-morgenthau-plan/

 

Such an economic powerhouse, but it's miscalculations should serve as a warning to the USA.

 

A little correction from my side on the stats the author of the article is providing. "One-fifth of the population was not born in Germany." This is absolute non-sense. One fifth of the population have a migration background and the vast majority of them were actually born in Germany and are productive in the workforce. To be counted as someone with a migration background one's parents have to be born abroad. Attached a oie chart showing the distribution of the 20%.

The author of the article either didn't check facts or was trying to paint a picture which is simply not reality. Apart from 1m Syrians and approx. 1m Ukrainians, that recently arrived, the vast majority were born in Germany.

Edited Thursday at 05:49 PM by Baklava

[cubsfan]

^^^ I thought 20% was high myself. Given the problem that radical Islam is causing Germany, as in France - the point was the USA needs to keep this under control. 

 

WIESBADEN – 14.2 million people lived in Germany in 2021 who themselves had immigrated since 1950, according to microcensus results. Immigrants thus accounted for 17.3% of the population

 

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2023/03/PE23_080_12.html

 

 

Edited Thursday at 06:10 PM by cubsfan

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

Someone explain what's so extremist in Elon's op ed.

 

The AfD manifesto shared here, I've skimmed some of it and it doesn't sound crazy but maybe someone can enlighten me:

 

 

 

 

Edited Friday at 12:10 AM by Dalal.Holdings

[Dalal.Holdings]

Quote

Musk’s commentary has led to a debate in German media over the boundaries of free speech, with the paper’s own opinion editor announcing her resignation, pointedly on Musk’s social media platform, X.

 

“I always enjoyed leading the opinion section of WELT and WAMS. Today an article by Elon Musk appeared in Welt am Sonntag. I handed in my resignation yesterday after it went to print,” Eva Marie Kogel wrote.

https://apnews.com/article/germany-election-musk-far-right-afd-welt-915cc6821cd48c3168a7895b1d1c1a35

 

I remember when journalists were ardent defenders of free speech. Guess no more

[frommi]

20 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Whatever is happening in Germany, the USA needs to avoid. 

 

https://amgreatness.com/2025/01/02/germanys-new-morgenthau-plan/

 

Such an economic powerhouse, but it's miscalculations should serve as a warning to the USA.

Unlike the US, the german powerhouse was build on cheap energy from Russia and selling cars to China. Both fronts collapsed, and that was easy to see years earlier. The AFD has no solution for this, but no party really has, because its a hard place to be. The demographic is also a huge problem which will hurt the germans in the next years. Immigration is probably the only fix for that, but the AFD and now also the CDU as biggest political blocks are working against it. The problems will probably get a lot worse before it gets better. Maybe killing the debt ceiling and spending money like crazy on infrastructure and education can rescue them. (AFD or CDU don't really want that, at least as far as i know) Maybe a coalition of SPD and CDU goes into that direction this time, but that coalition created the debt ceiling in 2009 under Merkel, so i doubt it. Its funny that all countries in europe work with debt/GDP ratios of >120%, but germany has 80% while its infrastructure crumbles and it secures all debt the other countries issue via the EU central bank.

Edited Friday at 01:23 PM by frommi

[formthirteen]

Quote

 

The Gender Balance on Corporate Boards Directive entered into application at the end of 2024, aiming for a more balanced gender representation on the boards of listed companies across all EU Member States.

 

The Directive sets a target for EU large listed companies of 40% of the underrepresented sex among their non-executive directors and 33% among all directors.

 

The deadline for the transposition by Member States was 28^th December 2024, and companies must meet the targets by 30 June 2026.

 

 

One rule to rule them all.

 

ASML better start replacing some board members:

https://www.asml.com/en/company/governance/board-of-management

 

Maybe Dr. Lisa T. Su will accept the challenge?

[Spekulatius]

Gender is such a fluid concept though. You could be women, man, man at home, women at work. Who’s is going to tell? How about non binary?

Edited yesterday at 03:13 AM by Spekulatius

[Dalal.Holdings]

19 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

One rule to rule them all.

 

ASML better start replacing some board members:

https://www.asml.com/en/company/governance/board-of-management

 

Maybe Dr. Lisa T. Su will accept the challenge?

Another ground-breaking innovation from the deep minds in Brussels

[Dalal.Holdings]

I wonder what it must be like living the life of a Brussels bureaucrat…

 

You get to work on your bike, put on your lanyard, and collaborate with your colleagues on typing up the next piece of regulation that will “save the world”. You’re out of the office by 4 in time for squash with the boys. Basically living the life of a college student with more pay and authority.

[Dalal.Holdings]

23 hours ago, frommi said:

Unlike the US, the german powerhouse was build on cheap energy from Russia and selling cars to China. Both fronts collapsed, and that was easy to see years earlier. The AFD has no solution for this, but no party really has, because its a hard place to be. The demographic is also a huge problem which will hurt the germans in the next years. Immigration is probably the only fix for that, but the AFD and now also the CDU as biggest political blocks are working against it. The problems will probably get a lot worse before it gets better. Maybe killing the debt ceiling and spending money like crazy on infrastructure and education can rescue them. (AFD or CDU don't really want that, at least as far as i know) Maybe a coalition of SPD and CDU goes into that direction this time, but that coalition created the debt ceiling in 2009 under Merkel, so i doubt it. Its funny that all countries in europe work with debt/GDP ratios of >120%, but germany has 80% while its infrastructure crumbles and it secures all debt the other countries issue via the EU central bank.

Love how you say “there is no solution to these problems” when the solutions have already been proposed:

 

— rebuild nuclear power

— battery storage for variable wind/solar energy

— removing regulatory barriers so euro industry can actually compete against chinese industry (which is powered by coal)

— control immigration

 

Some of the obvious solutions

[Spekulatius]

Germany was never build on cheap energy wither. Energy wasn’t cheap even when the Russian gas was. For example in 2019, the price for LNG in Europe was between 4-5 Euro/ MMBTU. There was plentiful supply in 2019 for LNG. Russian gas according to my source was prices similar.

 

Prices have been normalizing but there is  further work to do. Also the issue is partly  not so much  the natural gas or the LNG supply, it is the fact that there just isn’t enough power generation capacity due to favoring wind and solar with volatile output.

[Baklava]

2 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Love how you say “there is no solution to these problems” when the solutions have already been proposed:

 

— rebuild nuclear power

— battery storage for variable wind/solar energy

— removing regulatory barriers so euro industry can actually compete against chinese industry (which is powered by coal)

— control immigration

 

Some of the obvious solutions

 

Frommi summed it up pretty well from a 10k feet view.

 

@Dalal.Holdings I am with you with your first two points but removing regulatory barriers and cheap energy are not going to make German car makers sell more cars in China. If I am not mistaken 40% of cars sold in China are EVs by now. Our German car makers suck at that game.

 

Controlling Immigration is kind of a hoax topic from the AfD. This is not happening at the volumes it used to. The last wave of immigrants entering Germany was with the start of the Ukraine war and before that it was the wave of 1m Syrians being welcomed by Mrs. Merkel.

 

It is far more important to integrate those migrants we already have here into the job market. I don't know whether you are aware of Germany's demographics but it is getting closer to Japanese levels. Not every one of those migrants needs to have a university degree, we also need people doing low level jobs. 

 

Unfortunately, we are not doing a superb job at it. Our social welfare system keeps too many people from having an incentive to work. Furthermore, even accepting degrees and professions from other countries is kind of a nightmare. While doing so well are excluding a pool of labour out of the job market.

[Baklava]

On 1/3/2025 at 12:58 AM, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Someone explain what's so extremist in Elon's op ed.

 

The AfD manifesto shared here, I've skimmed some of it and it doesn't sound crazy but maybe someone can enlighten me:

 

 

 

 

 

Larry Goldberg seems to have a good grasp of the situation with the AfD. LOL. I don’t know a single jewish person in Germany who would vote for the AfD. On the contrary, every jewish person I know thinks of the AfD as a fascist party.

 

 

[John Hjorth]

2 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

I wonder what it must be like living the life of a Brussels bureaucrat…

 

You get to work on your bike, put on your lanyard, and collaborate with your colleagues on typing up the next piece of regulation that will “save the world”. You’re out of the office by 4 in time for squash with the boys. Basically living the life of a college student with more pay and authority.

 

European Union : Working and living in Brussels, &

European Commision : Working at the Commission – conditions and environment.

 

Likely like in any other administration, meaning, if you're in a senior/ managerial position, that 40 hours per week rule does not apply for you, so you can stick it up where the sun doesen't shine, and start working day in, day out, 7 days a week in long periods from time to time, to back up your political superior.

[Spekulatius]

Easy trade- US goes to 100%, rest goes to zero:

 

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Baklava said:

 

Larry Goldberg seems to have a good grasp of the situation with the AfD. LOL. I don’t know a single jewish person in Germany who would vote for the AfD. On the contrary, every jewish person I know thinks of the AfD as a fascist party.

 

 

Alice Weidel is exceptionally articulate and agree with her one some things,  but why are they all eager to lick Putin’s, Assads or Xi Jinping boots? What sense does it make to distance Germany from the US and move towards those autocracy’s. Seems like they never meet an autocrat they don’t like.

 

Also beneath the public facade, there are a lot radical neonazis playing a role in the part who have been seen son Neonazi demos with swastika symbols and the whole nine yards.  The party need to be cleaned up before it become electable.

Edited 13 hours ago by Spekulatius

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 hour ago, Baklava said:

 

Frommi summed it up pretty well from a 10k feet view.

 

@Dalal.Holdings I am with you with your first two points but removing regulatory barriers and cheap energy are not going to make German car makers sell more cars in China. If I am not mistaken 40% of cars sold in China are EVs by now. Our German car makers suck at that game.

 

Controlling Immigration is kind of a hoax topic from the AfD. This is not happening at the volumes it used to. The last wave of immigrants entering Germany was with the start of the Ukraine war and before that it was the wave of 1m Syrians being welcomed by Mrs. Merkel.

 

It is far more important to integrate those migrants we already have here into the job market. I don't know whether you are aware of Germany's demographics but it is getting closer to Japanese levels. Not every one of those migrants needs to have a university degree, we also need people doing low level jobs. 

 

Unfortunately, we are not doing a superb job at it. Our social welfare system keeps too many people from having an incentive to work. Furthermore, even accepting degrees and professions from other countries is kind of a nightmare. While doing so well are excluding a pool of labour out of the job market.

 

A majority of cars (>50%) sold in China are now EVs. German carmakers suck at the EV game? Well guess what other major region wants to ban ICE cars by 2035 (just 10 years away)? That's right, the EU. If German carmakers want to survive, they'd better invest in "not sucking" at the EV game.

 

Re: the migrants. Germany (like the UK) is systemically set up where its policies for migrants makes absolutely zero sense. They suck at deporting the convicted criminals and they suck at assimilating. Unlike the USA, the UK and Germany (I would add France & Italy) have very poor track records in assimilating their migrants. Their migrants largely live in isolated neighborhoods that are homogenous and interact primarily with each other.

 

The U.S. is more of a melting pot than any European country, despite the supposed "very liberal" values of Europe. The social welfare programs, as you note, and "nonprofits", "liberals" in general do more harm by getting migrants to be dependent on handouts from the State.

 

Edited 14 hours ago by Dalal.Holdings

[Dalal.Holdings]

@Baklava the problem does not seem to be limited just to 1M migrants who came in during Merkel:

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/germany-immigration-struggles-election-8dfd4b65

 

Quote

Germany has long been one of the world’s most welcoming nations to migrants. Between 2013 and 2023, 6.43 million more people settled in Germany than left, according to Germany’s Federal Statistics Office—the biggest inflow of any country outside the U.S., according to the United Nations. 

 

Quote

Since the 2015 refugee crisis, when hundreds of thousands streamed into Europe, Germany has received 2.4 million asylum seekers, twice the population of Munich. 

 

For a country of ~80M, these numbers are quite significant.

 

What's worse is that unlike the U.S., Germany has not been very good at assimilating its immigrants who have high unemployment and depend on State welfare.

 

Quote

Yet Germany hasn’t had much success integrating newcomers into its labor market. The unemployment rate for noncitizens last year was 14.7%, compared with 5% for citizens.  

 

 

This is absolute insanity !!! :

 

Quote

In the U.S., migrants seeking asylum typically receive no federal aid, but they are permitted to work once they submit their applications. In Germany, they aren’t generally allowed to work until they are officially deemed refugees, which can take months or even years. But they are entitled to benefits worth as much as hundreds or thousands of euros a month—which cost the federal government €29.7 billion in 2023, according to research company Statista. State governments bear additional costs.

 

Good luck electing "more moderate politicians" who continue this status quo

 

Quote

More than 60% of the people in Germany who depend on government benefits for income are foreign-born or are second-generation migrants. Noncitizens, who make up 15% of the population, perpetrated 41% of all crimes in 2023, up from 28.7% in 2014, according to police statistics.

 

"Show me the incentives and I will show you the outcome"

 

Quote

 

Germany’s income-support system entitles anyone unemployed for longer than a year—and any worker whose income is below a certain level—to a tax-free stipend. In addition, the state pays for rent, heating, medical bills, school supplies, daycare, even mortgage interest payments. A family with three children 14 and older can get €2,425 a month in cash payments alone.

 

Edited 14 hours ago by Dalal.Holdings

[John Hjorth]

2 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

A majority of cars (>50%) sold in China are now EVs. German carmakers suck at the EV game? Well guess what other major region wants to ban ICE cars by 2035 (just 10 years away)? That's right, the EU. If German carmakers want to survive, they'd better invest in "not sucking" at the EV game. ...

 

... The U.S. is more of a melting pot than any European country, despite the supposed "very liberal" values of Europe.

 

That's right, a fact, and it's just straight out crazy.

 

-And to me, personally, you forgot to throw in the Draghi report here!  

 

A lot of European politicians have thoughts and ideas about future societal and structural developments by now, and when reality and other kinds of 's**t' and 'garbage' [that 'really doesen't matter at all'] hits the fan, those politicians are up for a sudden awakening, because there will be no takers, noone bidding in, based on commercial principles and capitalism, to execute on their high flying aspirations.

[Spekulatius]

48 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

@Baklava the problem does not seem to be limited just to 1M migrants who came in during Merkel:

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/germany-immigration-struggles-election-8dfd4b65

 

 

 

For a country of ~80M, these numbers are quite significant.

 

What's worse is that unlike the U.S., Germany has not been very good at assimilating its immigrants who have high unemployment and depend on State welfare.

 

 

 

This is absolute insanity !!! :

 

 

Good luck electing "more moderate politicians" who continue this status quo

 

 

"Show me the incentives and I will show you the outcome"

 

 

A lot of the non- citizens are citizens from other EU countries. Go to any large German company and you will see lots of foreign engineers and managers there from France, Spain, Italy, Poland etc.

Sith and EU passport you can work in any country in the EU, there is no need to acquire another citizenship. Germany needs these workers and they also integrate  well.  The Italian, Spanish and no Turkish immigrants have also integrated very well.

 

I agree that the Syrian immigrants are a problem,  but they are not Germany’s biggest problem.

Edited 13 hours ago by Spekulatius

[frommi]

The avg german gas price is double in 2023/2024 than what it was from 2014->2020 and there was a huge spike (10x the avg of 2014->2020) in 2022 when putin invaded ukraine.
Lots of companies (for example VW, BMW, Thyssen or BASF) produced their own power with the gas because it was cheaper than from the grid.

According to the AFD the Syrians ARE the problem. These people came in waves to germany and typically as long as you don't have your refugee status approved you are not allowed to work. Germany bureaucracy is VERY slow in processing these claims. That leaves these people not being able to work, what do you think they do all day long? Of course they get on wrong paths. But no political party blames this as the root cause, the only answer is send the refugees home or block them from coming into the country, which is also not possible because they have a right to get asyl.

 

And to the EV production, right now there is no other country that can compete with the prices at which you can produce these cars in china. China copied everything from german production facilities build in their countries, perfected it and now are subsidizing their own car production.

Edited 12 hours ago by frommi

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, frommi said:

The avg german gas price is double in 2023/2024 than what it was from 2014->2020 and there was a huge spike (10x the avg of 2014->2020) in 2022 when putin invaded ukraine.
Lots of companies (for example VW, BMW, Thyssen or BASF) produced their own power with the gas because it was cheaper than from the grid.

According to the AFD the Syrians ARE the problem. These people came in waves to germany and typically as long as you don't have your refugee status approved you are not allowed to work. Germany bureaucracy is VERY slow in processing these claims. That leaves these people not being able to work, what do you think they do all day long? Of course they get on wrong paths. But no political party blames this as the root cause, the only answer is send the refugees home or block them from coming into the country, which is also not possible because they have a right to get asyl.

 

And to the EV production, right now there is no other country that can compete with the prices at which you can produce these cars in china. China copied everything from german production facilities build in their countries, perfected it and now are subsidizing their own car production.

Syrians are not refugees, they are economic migrants.  Had they been fleeing persecution, they would have applied for asylum in Turkey or any of the other countries they had to cross to get to Germany.  They are also mostly young men of fighting age.  Invaders yes, asylum seekers - no.  

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, frommi said:

The avg german gas price is double in 2023/2024 than what it was from 2014->2020 and there was a huge spike (10x the avg of 2014->2020) in 2022 when putin invaded ukraine.
Lots of companies (for example VW, BMW, Thyssen or BASF) produced their own power with the gas because it was cheaper than from the grid.

According to the AFD the Syrians ARE the problem. These people came in waves to germany and typically as long as you don't have your refugee status approved you are not allowed to work. Germany bureaucracy is VERY slow in processing these claims. That leaves these people not being able to work, what do you think they do all day long? Of course they get on wrong paths. But no political party blames this as the root cause, the only answer is send the refugees home or block them from coming into the country, which is also not possible because they have a right to get asyl.

 

And to the EV production, right now there is no other country that can compete with the prices at which you can produce these cars in china. China copied everything from german production facilities build in their countries, perfected it and now are subsidizing their own car production.

Thanks you for your detailed explanation of the issues . You rarely hear some logical explanations as everyone tries to come up with a simple narrative to get elected.

 

The AFD is exploiting the immigration issue to the fullest.