Is Europe becoming uninvestable?

[Spekulatius]

It’s not so much that the € is flying,  the USD is weak against pretty much any other currency. This devaluation will help fix the trade deficit, as it does make US exports more competitive and imports more expensive compared to domestically produced goods.

Edited June 12, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Dalal.Holdings]

When your foreign currencies outperform the S&P:

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

EUR now up over 13% since Jan 1 vs USD. Even with no appreciation, Euro stocks have delivered amazing annualized returns in dollar terms and crushed S&P even though S&P is near ATH…

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-05/france-urges-tariff-barriers-to-stop-china-from-killing-industry?srnd=homepage-americas

 

Quote

French Finance Minister Eric Lombard said Europe must shore up its tariff barriers to counter Chinese imports that risk harming the continent’s industrial economy. 

Europe has already taken action on steel and automobiles, but rules must be changed to allow the wider use of measures against imports from China, Lombard said.

 

What will all the Free Traders at the World Economic Forum say though ?

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-08/eu-chief-demands-china-address-trade-imbalance-as-tensions-flare
 

“European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen accused China of distorting trade and limiting access for European firms two weeks ahead of a summit between the economic powers.”

“If our partnership is to move forward, we need a genuine rebalancing: fewer market distortions, less overcapacity exported from China, and fair, reciprocal access for European businesses in China,” von der Leyen told the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Tuesday.

 

Ursula sounding like DJT 

[zippy1]

1 hour ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

 

Ursula sounding like DJT 

Exclusive | China tells EU it does not want to see Russia lose its war in Ukraine: sources

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/china-tells-eu-it-cannot-afford-russian-loss-ukraine-war-sources-say

Maybe these are related?

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

Must...stop...right wing parties from gaining control 

 

[Sweet]

In news that will surprise no one:

 

”Reeves’s capital gains tax changes ‘backfire’ as Treasury receipts fall sharply”

 

https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/tax/capital-gains-tax-receipts-changes-backfire

 

Although Reeves was blamed this started under the Conservatives who reduced the capital gains tax free rate from 12k to just 3k.  Then reeves hiked the rate from 10% for lower earnings to 20%, and to 24% for the higher earners.

 

So yeh, I’m just not going to sell as much, or I am going to make disposals through my wife.  

Big shocker than increases the taxes on capital gains reduced the tax take.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Ursula the Brussels bureaucrat goes up against Trump the Real Estate guy from Queens...Goes about as expected:

 

Quote

The US and European Union agreed to a deal that will see the bloc face 15% tariffs on most of its exports, including automobiles, staving off a trade war that could have delivered a hammer blow to the global economy.

 

Quote

 

The EU agreed to purchase $750 billion in energy, invest $600 billion in the US on top of existing investments, open up countries’ markets to trade with US at zero tariffs and purchase “vast amounts” of military equipment, Trump said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-27/eu-us-clinch-deal-to-avoid-trump-tariff-hike-ahead-of-deadline?srnd=homepage-americas

 

So uhh...what did the EU get out of this exactly ???

 

[Charlie]

3 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

So uhh...what did the EU get out of this exactly ???

Germany will probably not see another recession, because we can export cars to you with a 15% tariff. 

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 hour ago, Charlie said:

Germany will probably not see another recession, because we can export cars to you with a 15% tariff. 

 

Does any citizen in Europe even care if Ursula does a bad job? The EU politicians are far removed from their constituents. I doubt most even know the daily goings-on of EU affairs or even consider Ursula their representative on the global stage. 

 

That this deal was so lopsided in favor of the U.S. shows how meek EU is. People like Trump and Putin can just run circles around them while overeducated collared shirts in Brussels dither and twiddle their thumbs.

 

 

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.ft.com/content/85d57e0e-0c6f-4392-a68c-81866e1519c3

 

Well, even the FT isn't sugarcoating this...

 

Quote

There is no hiding the fact the EU was rolled over by the Trump juggernaut, said one ambassador. “Trump worked out exactly where our pain threshold is.”

 

Yeah, that's what happens when you have no real executive running your continent. The EU is a rudderless body that only knows how to create regulation and stifle the continent. Its leaders are not even elected by the European people and largely represent the overeducated "elite" professional class

[cubsfan]

15 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

https://www.ft.com/content/85d57e0e-0c6f-4392-a68c-81866e1519c3

 

Well, even the FT isn't sugarcoating this...

 

 

Yeah, that's what happens when you have no real executive running your continent. The EU is a rudderless body that only knows how to create regulation and stifle the continent. Its leaders are not even elected by the European people and largely represent the overeducated "elite" professional class

 

Exactly. When you have a strong leader that can make bold decisions on his own - he has to own them. That's why Trump was elected - we're sick of weak leaders and their "expert advisers".

[Dalal.Holdings]

46 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Exactly. When you have a strong leader that can make bold decisions on his own - he has to own them. That's why Trump was elected - we're sick of weak leaders and their "expert advisers".

 

Meanwhile the professional class that runs the EU is panicking at surging popularity of what they call "Far Right" (really not that Far Right) among the people.

 

The people who founded this country wisely concluded that it ought to have an "energetic executive" and the country can't just be run by a deliberative body like Congress. EU is even worse because the EU leaders are not even elected by the people. 

 

Like running a business by committee (instead of a CEO), bound to be ineffectual.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Exactly. When you have a strong leader that can make bold decisions on his own - he has to own them. That's why Trump was elected - we're sick of weak leaders and their "expert advisers".

 

Like Trump owns his decision of appointing Jay Powell (blames Biden)?

 

Or ownership of the explosive deficits that resulted from the tax cuts his first presidency? Think it'll be any better this time around? 

 

What about accepts ownership of the results of his campaign when he lost the election? 

 

What about the inflation that resulted from both his, and Biden's, fiscal response to COVID? 

 

What about accepting  ownership that the Ukraine/Russia war didn't end on Day 1 of his presidency? Or Day 180? Or any time soon? 

 

What about ownership of failing to release the GSEs from conservatorship in his first term? 

 

What about failing to avoid the US getting involved in the Iran/Israel conflict. 

 

What exactly DOES Trump accept ownership of? 

Edited July 28, 2025 by TwoCitiesCapital

[Dalal.Holdings]

2 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Like Trump owns his decision of appointing Jay Powell (blames Biden)?

 

Or ownership of the explosive deficits that resulted from the tax cuts his first presidency? Think it'll be any better this time around? 

 

What about accepts ownership of the results of his campaign when he lost the election? 

 

What about the inflation that resulted from both his, and Biden's, fiscal response to COVID? 

 

What about accepting  ownership that the Ukraine/Russia war didn't end on Day 1 of his presidency? Or Day 180? Or any time soon? 

 

What about ownership of failing to release the GSEs from conservatorship in his first term? 

 

What about failing to avoid the US getting involved in the Iran/Israel conflict. 

 

What exactly DOES Trump accept ownership of? 

 

The thing about ALL of these points that makes Donald Trump different than Ursula Von De Leyen is that he has been elected by the people and is accountable to them. Despite all your points, the People reelected him.

 

Ursula the aristocrat/long term political insider is accountable to no one really and that's the problem of the EU governance structure. She only achieved her EU Presidency by being a long time Euro bureaucratic insider. The People's will does not matter in such a process.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

2 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

The thing about ALL of these points that makes Donald Trump different than Ursula Von De Leyen is that he has been elected by the people and is accountable to them. 

 

Ursula the aristocrat/long term political insider is accountable to no one really 

 

 

The comment was that Trump "owns" things where Europe does not. Not that he was elected. 

 

My argument was to demonstrate that Trump owns very little and regularly blames his bad results on others. 

 

Whether the people are dumb enough to believe him and re-elect is another discussion entirely. 

[thowed]

5 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Meanwhile the professional class that runs the EU is panicking at surging popularity of what they call "Far Right" (really not that Far Right) among the people.

 

FFS.  Complacency, ignorance and appeasement haven't worked so well in European history - if you care to read up on this.  Easy to pontificate from across the pond.

 

On the general issue of unelected EU officials, I agree with you.

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

2 hours ago, thowed said:

 

FFS.  Complacency, ignorance and appeasement haven't worked so well in European history - if you care to read up on this.  Easy to pontificate from across the pond.

 

On the general issue of unelected EU officials, I agree with you.

 

 

Complacency hasn't worked? How about suppressing a very real and rising political party in Germany and labeling it as "far Right" ??? When you suppress the will of the people, you end up with a much more radical uprising in the end as the will of the people eventually overwhelms and there is a lot of resentment built up by people who feel they were wronged by the establishment.

 

Look at Trump in 2024 vs 2016. Biden administration attempted to arrest/suppress Trump from 2020-2024 and what was the result? He and his movement only grew stronger to the point that his second term will be much more impactful than his first. If Trump's second term was 2020-2024, he would not have accomplished nearly what he will this term. Trump/MAGA was anti-fragile and grew stronger from attempted suppression by the establishment.

 

If Trump was a European politician in 2016, he would have been labeled "Far right", not allowed to run, possible imprisoned on some b.s. charges. Here in the U.S., he won election twice and now he'll be gone in a few years and the people will bear the consequences of his decisions: right or wrong. And after he leaves in Jan 2029, America will still be here very similar to the country it was before Trump. Only some Americans are constantly crying about it, but most will move on.

 

If Trump is a truly bad leader of the people, the people will hold him and his party to account as they did when he lost in 2020.

 

Europeans just try to bury the problem and censor these parties growing in popularity and so Europe suppresses its own democratic processes. That form of suppression leads to those forces gaining in strength (by being anti-fragile) and when they inevitably come into power, it's often in much stronger form as Trump's second term shows.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Europeans would do well to learn from U.S. history with regards to the EU:

 

Quote

The Articles of Confederation failed primarily because they created a weak central government that lacked the power to effectively govern the newly independent United States.

 

Quote

By the mid-1780s, the weaknesses of the Articles were clear. The crisis moments—especially Shays’ Rebellion (1786–87)—highlighted the federal government's inability to maintain order or protect property, prompting the Constitutional Convention of 1787, which resulted in the U.S. Constitution and a much stronger federal system.

 

 

Of course, European nations want their own independent sovereignty while also joining together in a deliberative government/body. And that deliberative body has no accountability to its people. They want to have their cake and eat it too. Like the UN, the EU is largely ineffectual when it comes to important matters.

 

 

Edited July 28, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Spekulatius]

Sodexo $ SW.PA seems like a good idea - I bought a few shares:

https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/SODEXO_S_A/4277177110
 

 

They spun off Pluxee a while ago, which has not done well. Pluxee is a better business fundamentally (capital light, has float) but is under the gun from regulators to reduce take rates and increase competition. Sodexo seems more durable and trades at a large discount to peers. There are some reasons for the discounts but I think they are larger than they deserve to be.

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

The German fear of debt and love of austerity has not produced good results. They need Keynesianism and stat

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-28/germany-set-to-double-defense-spending-to-162-billion-by-2029

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-cabinet-approves-2026-budget-tripling-borrowing-2025-07-30/

 

Large draft budget approved, defense spend to double by 2029

 

Merz knows this is the last chance to "save" Germany from the AfD. He needs to deliver

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://mashable.com/article/eu-chat-control-law-would-allow-scans-of-encrypted-messages

 

EU: "we need GDPR, AI Act, and penalties on American tech companies to ensure the privacy of our citizens!"

 

Also the EU: "we need access to all your encrypted communication/messages/photos, ability to censor speech we deem problematic, a digital ID we control, and an eWallet we have oversight of as well"

 

I honestly can't believe what European citizens will put up with or what EU politicians & bureaucrats try to get away with all the while making their continent less and less competitive and more and more irrelevant on the global stage...

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1n1dj4r/chat_control_stance_as_of_aug_2025_countries/

 

https://fightchatcontrol.eu

Edited August 29, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Dalal.Holdings]

Just another day of Europe "enforcing democracy". They truly are the last bastion of individual rights and democratic processes. Just need to cancel more elections and spy on their citizens more.

 

 

Quote

The Europol chief said that in a digital environment, the police needed to be able to decode these messages to fight crime. “You will not be able to enforce democracy without it,” she added.