Spekulatius Posted January 26 Posted January 26 9 hours ago, gfp said: Well we just had a coordinated intervention with Bessent's help to stem the decline in JPY and KRW against the USD so... I don’t think there was intervention, it looks like it is just a rumor. This intervention in YEN, KRW also doesn’t explain why the USD was weak against other currencies like EUR, MXN, AUD and others. Looks to me like the USD is just selling off against everything, including GLD
Spooky Posted January 28 Posted January 28 Some interesting charts on AI from Torsten Slok at Apollo: https://go2.apollo.com/e/1047283/-c-utm-campaign-EXT-DailySpark/3jfs6/449348711/h/6hfwpqGGo1PM6-MIzzK2-tmtXbWzWreLG4iRY2dzZxY
Spooky Posted January 28 Posted January 28 On 1/26/2026 at 6:35 PM, Spekulatius said: Looks to me like the USD is just selling off against everything, including GLD Could the recent sell off be related to a potential government shutdown? There is a deadline this Friday to pass something and the senate needs votes from the Democrats who want to see some reforms around DHS / ICE.
dwy000 Posted January 28 Posted January 28 21 minutes ago, Spooky said: Could the recent sell off be related to a potential government shutdown? There is a deadline this Friday to pass something and the senate needs votes from the Democrats who want to see some reforms around DHS / ICE. Its down like 13% over the past year. I think its more than just the shutdown (although that certainly doesnt help). Its the inability to get the financial house in order with growing deficits and endless spending that are not helping economic growth.
Sweet Posted January 28 Author Posted January 28 32 minutes ago, Spooky said: Could the recent sell off be related to a potential government shutdown? There is a deadline this Friday to pass something and the senate needs votes from the Democrats who want to see some reforms around DHS / ICE. I think it’s the tariffs (less trade in usd), Fed chair leaving with the expectation of a dovish Fed, and Trump signalling he doesn’t think the dollar is low.
Spekulatius Posted January 28 Posted January 28 (edited) 1 hour ago, Sweet said: I think it’s the tariffs (less trade in usd), Fed chair leaving with the expectation of a dovish Fed, and Trump signalling he doesn’t think the dollar is low. Yes , those are the short term drivers. For a while now, I think some central banks convert USD and treasury holdings into Gold. Gold seems to become the reserve currency of choice for China, India and a few other states Edited January 28 by Spekulatius
Spekulatius Posted January 29 Posted January 29 (edited) My wife just sent me Pics of people lining upon front of a gold trader store to buy gold. This is from Thailand. I don’t think this is early any more for GLD. Edited January 29 by Spekulatius
gfp Posted January 29 Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: My wife just sent me Pics of people lining upon front of a gold trader store to buy gold. This is from Thailand. I don’t think this is early any more for GLD. Around the time I was getting together with my (now) wife, in 2001-2002, I was a big precious metals bug and Marion would give me a bit of a hard time about it and ask, "how do you know when to sell it then?" I told her the time to sell it would be when we saw big advertisements at the airport for gold (I was young, I probably got the line from Jim Rogers). Sure as shit, 2007-2008 comes around (before the stock market crash really accelerated) and we see a big 'invest in gold' advertisement in the airport terminal. She starts pointing and telling me you gotta sell the gold! I didn't sell it all but I largely left my precious metals habit in the past since then. Sold some more in 2011 or 2012 to fund an apartment building that still sends me $5k a month in almost-tax-free cash flow each month. Gold just sits there like a lump.
DooDiligence Posted January 29 Posted January 29 I remember seeing that before. Can't recall the year(s). Here's a really old (and long) article with a lot of rhymes in it. Big Boom in a Barbarous Relic https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,920179-1,00.html === Here's another one highlighting another recent rush for baht chains. https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-04-20/Thailand-s-gold-selling-rush-amid-price-jitters-PQhH3gQSZy/index.html
UK Posted January 29 Posted January 29 3 hours ago, Spekulatius said: My wife just sent me Pics of people lining upon front of a gold trader store to buy gold. This is from Thailand. I don’t think this is early any more for GLD. +1. Sentiment wise, some budies who knows nothing about investing or ever invested in anything and do not even have or opened account yet are inquiring about gold and silver:)
UK Posted January 29 Posted January 29 The deepest comment on the software rout from some fund manager today: "It doesn't really matter, what the reality is or isn't. Those stocks are getting hit pretty hard," he said.
Dalal.Holdings Posted January 29 Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, UK said: The deepest comment on the software rout from some fund manager today: "It doesn't really matter, what the reality is or isn't. Those stocks are getting hit pretty hard," he said. Software and crypto getting hit. Capital going to capital intensive AI stuff--chips, etc. Tech bros have moved on from SaaS and crypto. The covid era valuations look set to rerate
formthirteen Posted January 29 Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, UK said: "It doesn't really matter, what the reality is or isn't. Those stocks are getting hit pretty hard," he said. Yes, the smart and dumb money is going after the $13T market and left the $300B market behind (labor vs. software).
gfp Posted January 31 Posted January 31 I'm gonna share this guys blog again just because he cracks me up and I am entertained by it. Most of the semiconductor stuff is over my head but I always read this guy's posts right away. If you read one, he may sound like an idiot or a wall street bets degenerate. If you read several you may change your mind. Irrational Analysis - topic is broadly the semiconductor industry https://irrationalanalysis.substack.com/p/market-memo-january-is-finally-over?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1509468&post_id=186385441&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=oqhe5&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Spekulatius Posted January 31 Posted January 31 1 hour ago, gfp said: I'm gonna share this guys blog again just because he cracks me up and I am entertained by it. Most of the semiconductor stuff is over my head but I always read this guy's posts right away. If you read one, he may sound like an idiot or a wall street bets degenerate. If you read several you may change your mind. Irrational Analysis - topic is broadly the semiconductor industry https://irrationalanalysis.substack.com/p/market-memo-january-is-finally-over?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1509468&post_id=186385441&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=oqhe5&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email This guy is a WSB degenerate . I’m also subscribed to his blog, because I think he provides some valuable insight but man - there is a lot of noise. Quote I am also down $36K on Nvidia this month (worst symbol by far) because I mis-timed options trades. Was down $62K on Jan 20th. If I had buying power, I would buy the dip. Unfortunately, I am already at maximum leverage.
gfp Posted January 31 Posted January 31 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: This guy is a WSB degenerate . I’m also subscribed to his blog, because I think he provides some valuable insight but man - there is a lot of noise. Right - but he is also deeply knowledgeable and working in the industry, publishing his thoughts for free and has been basically correct on everything I have seen him take a stance on previously. I'm not going to trade options on this stuff or whatever he is personally doing with leverage and trading (his tax bill for last years trading is going to be a nightmare) - but I am certainly going to pay attention, especially to his recommendations of who the losers are (which are also going to be popular 'funding shorts' subject to short squeezes like GFS recently had). I like a non - wishy-washy opinion because I can determine if they are correct or not. People who hedge their bets with every statement and never put their capital on the line aren't super useful. Reading his blog plus SemiAnalysis gives decent ongoing coverage of the industry. And Irrational Analysis is more entertaining https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/apple-tsmc-the-partnership-that-built?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=6349492&post_id=183808784&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=oqhe5&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email Edited January 31 by gfp
Gregmal Posted January 31 Posted January 31 21 minutes ago, gfp said: People who hedge their bets with every statement and never put their capital on the line aren't super useful. Oh my gosh yes, is there anything worse?
Spekulatius Posted January 31 Posted January 31 On 9/28/2023 at 3:10 PM, Sweet said: I think the smart glasses so far have been very underwhelming and I wasn’t surprised they didn’t take off. But these glasses from Meta look like a big improvement and might actually be useful: Yes, if I had to bet on the next big consumer device, smart glasses would be it. meta has the lead here, they have been working on this for almost 15 years. Apple is also onto something but they have not shown their hand yet. THeir VR set shows they have the optical expertise in this space though.
gfp Posted January 31 Posted January 31 We'll know something is up when Apple quietly acquires Moscot. Meta already has that relationship with Luxxotica and Google made an investment in Warby Parker. Maybe my hometown Krewe eyewear catches a bid..
UK Posted February 1 Posted February 1 45 minutes ago, Sweet said: Thanks. Is the multiple FCF? Not sure, but I think these are some kind of earnings (adjusted) multiples.
Dalal.Holdings Posted February 1 Posted February 1 4 hours ago, UK said: Best part is how many of these were in “value” portfolios at the former valuations
Eng12345 Posted February 1 Posted February 1 3 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said: Best part is how many of these were in “value” portfolios at the former valuations Ding ding ding! A lot are starting to get interesting. Think this is my first time buying software directly tbh.
UK Posted February 1 Posted February 1 https://archive.is/37Hwn Why software stocks are getting pummelled Are investors overestimating the risk from AI?
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