Tidbits

[Spekulatius]

Department of war. A boat in the Caribbean here, a couple of bombs on Iran- what could go wrong?  I am getting Roland the Thompson Gunner vibes here:

 

Edited September 6, 2025 by Spekulatius

[bizaro86]

14 hours ago, Eng12345 said:

Getting Rich on Rocks

 

I know there are a lot of you guys who are fans of aggregates etc. I thought someone would enjoy this story. 

 

Thanks! That was excellent.

[nsx5200]

https://vegoutmag.com/lifestyle/d-i-nannied-for-the-ultra-rich-these-discreet-habits-set-the-truly-wealthy-apart-from-everyone-else/

"Automation quietly removes friction

This family treated systems like oxygen—unseen but everywhere"

 

Seems like a well-oiled operation, not unlike a well run corporation.  Good policies, like good architecture, only need to be changed infrequently.  Minor adjustments are made as needed.  The overall goal is to reduce the mental load so it can be spent where it is actually needed.

 

I find it interesting that this popped up in my feed, and this type of content showed up on a Vegan website.

[Sweet]

This and how Boeing is taking on the strikers (basically replacing them) is making me bullish on Boeing’s prospect.  No position but may open a tracker:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/performative-or-pragmatic-why-boeing-planes-feature-so-much-in-trump-trade-deals.html

[Eng12345]

[DooDiligence]

12 hours ago, Eng12345 said:

 

Great article. Time is on your side WRT purchases and sales.

[John Hjorth]

For those CofB&F members interested in John Huber and his doings, writings and opus moderandi, John is actually a CofB&F member himself, however not really active on here. I suppose it's hard to be active here and at the same time managing other peoples money. He joined CofB&F 29^th June 2016, posted last time 15^th November 2019 and hasen't been logged in since 17^th March 2021. [Here, especially remember, the core of CofB&F - the Investment Ideas Forum -, is set up as read-only for registered CofB&F members logged in.]

 

CofB&F profile of John Huber.

[Sweet]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

For those CofB&F members interested in John Huber and his doings, writings and opus moderandi, John is actually a CofB&F member himself, however not really active on here. I suppose it's hard to be active here and at the same time managing other peoples money. He joined CofB&F 29^th June 2016, posted last time 15^th November 2019 and hasen't been logged in since 17^th March 2021. [Here, especially remember, the core of CofB&F - the Investment Ideas Forum -, is set up as read-only for registered CofB&F members logged in.]

 

CofB&F profile of John Huber.

John Huber is great, I used to follow his writings and his 13F.  Saber Capital hasn’t updated their 13F for two years, anyone know why?

[Malmqky]

Archive - Base Hit Investing

For those interested, John's blog is quite active.

[Sweet]

Just a cool video of the new HQ for JPM:

 

 

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, Sweet said:

John Huber is great, I used to follow his writings and his 13F.  Saber Capital hasn’t updated their 13F for two years, anyone know why?

I think he just manages accounts for others now and that doesn’t require disclosure.

[Spekulatius]

Crude prices down and gasoline and heating oil prices up for the year. Must be a glitch in the matrix:

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gasoline

 

I am curious , any idea what happed here?

 

[bizaro86]

Crack spreads have moved up a lot in the last year. They were quite low a year ago and are now a bit higher than historical averages.

 

Part of that is because of the rising nat gas price. Refineries use nat gas as fuel so when it goes up their costs are higher, so the spread between the products and inputs has to be higher. 

 

Prices for RINs have also gone up, which has a similar effect as it increases refinery costs.

[Spekulatius]

$FIG close to the $33 IPO price and I don’t see people lining to up buy the stock.

 

[DooDiligence]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/maersk-resume-suez-canal-sailings-mecl-service-2026-01-15/

[Spekulatius]

 Bond vigilantes in Japan. JP40Y at almost 4%. Something has to give somewhere, I think

 

Edited January 20 by Spekulatius

[gfp]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

 Bond vigilantes in Japan. JP40Y at almost 4%. Something has to give somewhere, I think

 

 

 

If the moves in the Japanese currency and long bond yields have so much to do with Japan itself, why is the exact same thing happing in S. Korea?

 

Perhaps there is something else going on

[Spekulatius]

8 hours ago, gfp said:

 

 

If the moves in the Japanese currency and long bond yields have so much to do with Japan itself, why is the exact same thing happing in S. Korea?

 

Perhaps there is something else going on

Yes, bond vigilantes are starting to show up in various countries . UK, Japan, Korea and to a lesser extent France, Germany. I think the reasons are lower economic growth and higher spending (Keynes). Seems to differ from country to country but Japan is particularly noticeable because currency is weak at the same time.

 

In Japan the yield uptrend and currency decline has accelerated when Takaichi was elected in October 2025. She has proposed more spending and runs a populist platform.

Edited January 20 by Spekulatius

[Sweet]

What do people make of the divergence of gold and bitcoin in the last few months.  I feel like there is some signal there.  The digital gold argument doesn’t seem to be panning out right now.

[Gregmal]

9 minutes ago, Sweet said:

What do people make of the divergence of gold and bitcoin in the last few months.  I feel like there is some signal there.  The digital gold argument doesn’t seem to be panning out right now.

It’s the first time in like a decade and a half that gold is having its day. It’s a shitty asset(if you wanna call it one) but like much else, “price go up” is often a foolproof cure-all that once again has people believin….i personally wouldn’t make much of the short term move.

[Fly]

3 hours ago, Sweet said:

What do people make of the divergence of gold and bitcoin in the last few months.  I feel like there is some signal there.  The digital gold argument doesn’t seem to be panning out right now.

 

Central bank effects:

 

https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/gold-prices

 

Bitcoin isn't trading like anything else at this point. Gold/Silver booming, risk assets booming, bitcoin is flat/down in the past year. I still think it is a misunderstood asset that is a class of its own.

 

 

Edited January 24 by Fly

[John Hjorth]

Danish business News Media Børsen, Sunday digital edition, distributed at 9:00 PM Saturday :

 

Frontpage :

 

 

Headline 'Investorer undres over bankers mange opjusteringer' translates to English :'Investors are puzzled by banks' many upward adjustments'.

 

Inside pages :

 

 

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I personally know both those gentlemen.

 

Jakob Have [p.4] I've mentioned here on CofB&F related Nordfyns Bank [NRDF.CPH], now delisted, merged with Middelfart Sparekasse. Jakob made a killing in a quite short period of time, on that transaction, for him on a material amount of capitlal, me to, on a tiny position.

 

Jens Løgstrup [p. 5] I also know. But not for something good, many years ago, which I don't judge him by today. [I'll elaborate later, if any CofB&F interested.]

 

 

 

on p.6. translated to English by '6 upward adjustments of 2025 earnings expectations'. Please give me a break, - sandbagging - great source of progress, if one can spot it, in time! 

Edited January 25 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

USD is dropping like a rock relative to other currencies. JPY, EUR, GPB. Down more than 2% over the weekend.

 

[gfp]

Well we just had a coordinated intervention with Bessent's help to stem the decline in JPY and KRW against the USD so...

[Spooky]

On 1/23/2026 at 5:55 PM, Sweet said:

What do people make of the divergence of gold and bitcoin in the last few months.  I feel like there is some signal there.  The digital gold argument doesn’t seem to be panning out right now.

 

I always said crypto bros are gold bugs they just don't know it yet.