Share your Portfolio 2023!

[CGJB]

Cash/US Treasury Bills 42.0%

Gold Bullion 14.1%
-- iShares Gold Trust ETF (IAU)

Everything Else:

Hess Corp. (HES) 7.7%
Bayer ADRs (BAYRY) 5.2%
CNOOC Ltd. (883 HK) 4.6%
B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM UK) 3.3%
Energy Resources of Australia (ERA AU) 2.9%
COSCO Shipping International (517 HK) 2.7%
IGB Bhd. (5606 MY) 2.4%
CK Hutchison ADRs (CKHUY) 2.3%
New Hope Corp. (NHC AU) 1.8%
Scorpio Tankers (STNG) 1.8%
Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) 1.4%
Alina Holdings (ALNA UK) 1.4%
Swire Pacific Class B ADRs (SWRBY) 1.3%
Dolphin Capital Investors (DCI UK) 1.3%
Alibaba (9988 HK) 1.1%
Cenkos Securities (CNKS UK) 1.0%

Holdings Under 1% Each:

Anemoi International (AMOI UK)
Berkeley Energia (BKY AU)
Polymetal Interational ADRs (AUCOY)
Thalassa Holdings (THAL UK)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 2, 2023 by CGJB

[james22]

40% BRK

 

25% Small Value (VSIAX)

10% International Large Value (VTRIX)

 

10% Energy/Utilities (VGELX)

5% Infrastructure/Gold (VPMX)

 

10% Cash

[GordonGekko69]

On 3/31/2023 at 4:13 PM, Luca said:

Nice one, whats your take on Porsche SE, compared to ferrari they are a weaker brand but valuation wise there is a huge difference too? Could you tell me a bit about the thesis? Dividend Growth and transition to e cars/e fuel? How much runway do we have? I am interested in the brand for sure!

From my point of view Ferrari and Porsche SE (HoldCo) are not comparable. I also didnt run alot of number chrunching here. PAH3 is more or less a public listed family office of the families Porsche/Piech. As a HoldCo the gap to NAV will never close in total and thats fine for me. I see a lot of potential here. The emphasis surely lies in their major invesmtments  Volkswagen and Porsche but they are smart people and if you look at their additional investment portfolio I think they invested in some good companies (areas). Just look at the latest investment in ABB e-mobility. P911 is a great company. Not that of a nieche market as Ferrari but still nieche. They are confident to reach a 20% margin and planning to distribute 50% of profits via dividends. Volkswagen will use the IPO proceeds to strenghten the e-mobility (Software and battery research and capabilities). There is still a huge cap to close with regard to Tesla and I think it will take some time but it is manageable. Plus they have some more valuable Brands like Lamborghini or Audi. Following the PAH3 management statement they intent to keep the dividend constant and paying down the debt they took on to finance the P911 stake. They also keep investing in portfolio companies. As a HoldCo PAH3 pays only minor taxes according to German Corporate Tax Law. The proceeds from sale of investments and received dividends are 95% tax free if you hold a minimum 10% stake in equity. So if 5% of Volkswagen and P911 dividends are taxable at approx. 30% then the current effective tax rate on those cash-flows is 1.5% only and 98.5% of the dividends can be used for operating business or paying down the debt. I intend to keep the investment in PAH3 at least 10 years. Will see how it unfolds.

[Charlie03]

On 3/31/2023 at 6:38 PM, Spekulatius said:

There is a lot of stuff under the hood of Porsche holding so to speak.

 

If these guys get serious about value creation, there is a lot of upside, imo. The recent Porsche 911 IPO at least suggests they are trying.

The management team doesn't care about PAH3 shareholders, otherwise, they would've spun-off shares instead of outright IPO. There is a lot to like about valuation, but if management doesn't change direction, then it's a path to 0.

 

 

[backtothebeach]

1 hour ago, Charlie03 said:

The management team doesn't care about PAH3 shareholders, otherwise, they would've spun-off shares instead of outright IPO. There is a lot to like about valuation, but if management doesn't change direction, then it's a path to 0.

 

0 ?

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, backtothebeach said:

 

0 ?

Volkswagen has been around for a while it's not going anywhere. Neither does Porsche.

 

VW did not spin off the shares because they wanted some cash in exchange.

[dpetrescu]

Here’s my portfolio - including investment account, IRA and Roth:

 

75% - Simpson (SSD)

10% - Autodesk (ADSK)

Other 15% - Tyler (TYL), Alibaba and Pinduoduo 

 

ps… I wouldn’t recommend this to anyone else. SSD is very correlated to housing starts so lot of near term (5 year) volatility 

[valuehawk91]

In no particular order: BRK.B, SRG, MU, BABA, PROSY, ATVI, and some in Target data fund.

[RUFeebz]

Great thread. Canadian here.

27.5 VUN

27.5 VXUS

16 BRK

16 VAB

5 TD

3 META 

2 ZCN

1 ARWR

[Parsad]

20 Stocks Account For 90% of the Gain This Year:

 

https://www.ft.com/content/b01c0a46-1162-4893-8b92-d42fbf4424a0?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev

 

Cheers!

[Spekulatius]

Sauls investing Forum is and interesting place. It‘s a no holds barred approach to growth investing, where they try to find the companies with the highest sequential topline growth momentum, regardless of valuation or even profits metrics. They also try to exit at the slightest sign of growth waning, before the larger crowd does. It was wildly successful from 2016-2021 and attracted many followers and copycats but  now seems to have fallen completely apart.

https://discussion.fool.com/t/sauls-portfolio-end-of-march-you-may-not-recognize-it/90807

Edited April 9, 2023 by Spekulatius

[valueseek]

Have been following Sauls forum for last few years as well. Believed it should be termed - Sauls concentrated growth trading forum. With the cult following, they had a great run 5 years prior to 2021. He has never really revealed how much money he has invested in the retirement accounts he quotes. And Enphase is really a shocker for the SAAS drumbeat for last several years.

Edited April 11, 2023 by valueseek

[Spekulatius]

7 hours ago, valueseek said:

Have been following Sauls forum for last few years as well. Believed it should be termed - Sauls concentrated growth trading forum. With the cult following, they had a great run 5 years prior to 2021. He has never really revealed how much money he has invested in the retirement accounts he quotes. And Enphase is really a shocker for the SAAS drumbeat for last several years.

I think Saul himself is still up 5x from 2016 even with the ~70% drawdown from peak, but his performance probably beats virtually anyone out here. It’s the Johnny come lately that have been whacked.

[james22]

Interesting to me that no one else seems to be factor investing.

 

Or even index sector investing.

 

Huh.

 

 

[Ross812]

On 4/11/2023 at 6:58 PM, james22 said:

Interesting to me that no one else seems to be factor investing.

 

Or even index sector investing.

 

Huh.

 

 

 

The portfolio I shared was my Roth IRA which I trade in. The majority of my money is invested in indexes:

 

25% Utilities

20% Healthcare

20% Consumer staples (small cap)

10% Nasdaq

10% Berkshire

10% Gold 

5% Small cap value

[james22]

58 minutes ago, Ross812 said:

 

The portfolio I shared was my Roth IRA which I trade in. The majority of my money is invested in indexes:

 

25% Utilities

20% Healthcare

20% Consumer staples (small cap)

10% Nasdaq

10% Berkshire

10% Gold 

5% Small cap value

 

Nice. You've more choices available than most.

 

No matter how limited the choices (TSM, TISM, TBM, TIBM, etc.), I'd still be interested. Because as long as they offer any choice at all (other than a Target Date fund), they still say something about choices (US vs International, stocks vs bonds, etc.).

[Castanza]

57 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Nice. You've more choices available than most.

 

No matter how limited the choices (TSM, TISM, TBM, TIBM, etc.), I'd still be interested. Because as long as they offer any choice at all (other than a Target Date fund), they still say something about choices (US vs International, stocks vs bonds, etc.).

 

In a Roth IRA? Aren't these all self managed for the most part? 

[james22]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

 

In a Roth IRA? Aren't these all self managed for the most part? 

 

Yes.

 

I assume he was speaking of his 401K and taxable accounts (he'd previously only shared his Roth IRA trading account).

[Ross812]

Our 401ks have brokerage windows. One only allows ETFs, the other is a full Schwab account. I invest in individual equities in my taxable and Roth accounts. I like the ETF/BRK portfolio above because its lower volatility while matching or beating the S&P.  

[james22]

22 minutes ago, Ross812 said:

Our 401ks have brokerage windows.

 

Even better.

[Xerxes]

Not sure where this goes, but in the recent Amazon letter to shareholders, he presents the four bullets criteria for an investment case. There are many and wide varieties of criteria, I think this is a good one also to apply it when investing in public securities, broad-stroke kind of. The "we" being the company whose public securities one is contemplating to purchase.

 

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy’s 2022 Letter to Shareholders (aboutamazon.com)

 

- If we were successful, could it be big and have a reasonable return on invested capital?

- Is the opportunity being well-served today?

- Do we have a differentiated approach?

- And, do we have competence in that area? And if not, can we acquire it quickly?

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

Not sure where this goes, but in the recent Amazon letter to shareholders, he presents the four bullets criteria for an investment case. There are many and wide varieties of criteria, I think this is a good one also to apply it when investing in public securities, broad-stroke kind of. The "we" being the company whose public securities one is contemplating to purchase.

 

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy’s 2022 Letter to Shareholders (aboutamazon.com)

 

- If we were successful, could it be big and have a reasonable return on invested capital?

- Is the opportunity being well-served today?

- Do we have a differentiated approach?

- And, do we have competence in that area? And if not, can we acquire it quickly?

Noticeable absent is the question - does it make money or FCF (if it works)?

 

Amazon has been willing in invest large amount of money into business where profitability (or even FCF) seems elusive. They have been kicking the profitability can down the road for a while. Now with AMZN being a ~$1T market cap company, that question of sustained profitability becomes ever more important.

[dealraker]

On 4/14/2023 at 5:19 PM, Spekulatius said:

Noticeable absent is the question - does it make money or FCF (if it works)?

 

Amazon has been willing in invest large amount of money into business where profitability (or even FCF) seems elusive. They have been kicking the profitability can down the road for a while. Now with AMZN being a ~$1T market cap company, that question of sustained profitability becomes ever more important.

For your entertainment Spek, Amazon is my "20 year" stock.  20 years later it will sell for less than a former high point.  Is it this go-round?  It really all depends on when investors as a whole begin to put the normal or traditional valuation model into effect.  

 

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

10 hours ago, dealraker said:

For your entertainment Spek, Amazon is my "20 year" stock.  20 years later it will sell for less than a former high point.  Is it this go-round?  It really all depends on when investors as a whole begin to put the normal or traditional valuation model into effect.  

 

 

 

 

I recall earnings estimates for $5 and $7 for 2023/2024 given in 2021. There was an expectation that AMZN earnings would “hockey stick” due to both AWS and retail pulling through.  Currently we are looking at $1.4 this year and $2.5 next year as consensus earnings. FCF is currently negative.

 

I think AMZN will be higher in 20 years, but I can easily see the stock being at current levels in 5 years and I think it needing 10 years to take out taking out the last high from 2021 is a possibility.

[Sweet]

If the growth stops with Amazon investors will want the profits.

 

It could be an R&D forever type of company, but I’d doubt it.