Share your Portfolio 2023!

[John Hjorth]

@Luca,

 

There is actually a very good discussion of PAH3 lately in the Volkswagen topic here on CoBF. Porsche Holding SE is by it's basic nature by now a much different beast than Ferrari, uncomparable Ferrari, simply because it owns a large stake in Volkswagen, which holds brands totally different than Porsche and Ferrari [no element of really top class vehicles / luxury].

Edited March 31, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Ulti]

vwinx    25%   restricted account

brkb      20%

cash      14%

rio            8%

aiv            7%

joe            6%

ctra           6%

vet            6%

bti            4%

c               4%

 Core and explore \top 3 core for years

30% + in harder assets like commodities and RE. (learning from this board thanks)

8%  Shitty----

[Luca]

50 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

@Luca,

 

There is actually a very good discussion of PAH3 lately in the Volkswagen topic here on CoBF. Porsche Holding SE is by it's basic nature by now a much different beast than Ferrari, uncomparable Ferriri, simply because it owns a large stake in Volkswagen, which holds brands totally different than Porsche and Ferrari [no element of really top class vehicles / luxury].

Thank you, i didnt know the holdings are as such, will have a look

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

Thank you, i didnt know the holdings are as such, will have a look

There is a lot of stuff under the hood of Porsche holding so to speak.

 

If these guys get serious about value creation, there is a lot of upside, imo. The recent Porsche 911 IPO at least suggests they are trying.

[changegonnacome]

You can guess from my posting pattern

 

Long Portfolio:

 

BFIT (5%)

HSW (30%)

LBTYK (10%)

GLV (15%)

BIRG (15%)

MSGE (5%)

Cash (20%)

 

Various bearish puts/calls....& the theme of selling vol. in an at best range bound market type thing

 

Gross market exposure on MTM basis on any day probably peaks at like ~90%.........my preferred exposure is 112.5% when the wind is at my back ala 2010's but especially in 2020/2021 period......last year and this year is not one of those periods IMO hence the exposure/leverage is reigned in....time will tell if I've left money on the table.

 

[competitive-advantage]

Great idea 

 

Here's my current allocation:

Cash: 58%

Apple: 27%

Prime Office A/S: 5%

Scandinavian Investment Group A/S: 5%

H+H International A/S: 5%

 

[Parsad]

21 hours ago, crs223 said:

 

I once saw a cheers-less post. Gregmal was being disciplined over in the Disney thread… 

 

 

 

Yup...if there is no "cheers" then it is either a discipline post or somebody died. 

 

Otherwise the "cheers" have been ending my posts since February 20, 2002 when the COBF first started!  

 

Cheers!

[Gregmal]

Was doing some weekend cleaning. Found an old book which concluded with this gem.

 

 

Edited April 1, 2023 by Gregmal

[cubsfan]

^^ Fooling Some of the People, All of the Time" ??   Enjoyed that one. Lotta truth in that clip.

[frommi]

36% Tobacco:  9.6% BTI  8.5% PM 6.8% MO 6.8% IMB  4.4% Karelia Tobacco

26.4% FFH

14% Net-nets: 4% GIGM, 2.5% MSN, Rest are smaller positions.

6% REIT's: 3.2% EPRT 1.5% AMT 1.5% SRC

5.6% CMCSA

4% PKX (Posco)

3.6% SPY & DAX long term put options

 

Putting the list together was interesting, thought my FFH position is bigger. Looks like i can buy some more

[wisowis]

Ticker	Name	Weighting (%)
RPP	Pension-ETFs	12.6
TSE:VUN	Vanguard US Total Market Index ETF	12.4
NYSE:BRK.B	Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B	12.2
TSE:CSU	Constellation Software Inc.	8.3
TSE:PSA	Purpose High Interest Savings ETF	7.8
TSE:HSAV	Horizons Cash Maximizer ETF	6.9
TSE:BN	Brookfield Corp	3.5
TSE:DRM	DREAM Unlimited Corp	3.3
TSE:XEF	iShares Core MSCI EAFE IMI Index ETF	2.9
TSE:GFL	GFL Environmental Inc	2.2
TSE:FFH	Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd Sub Voting	2.1
TSE:ELF	E-L Financial Corp Ltd	2.1
TSE:HSUV.U	Horizons USD Cash Maximizer ETF	1.9
TSE:ATD	Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc	1.9
TSE:ZRE	BMO Equal Weight REITs Index ETF	1.7
TSE:XIC	iShares Core S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF	1.6
TSE:SJ	Stella-Jones Inc	1.5
CVE:QIS	Quorum Information Technologies Inc	1.4
TSE:WCN	Waste Connections Inc	1.3
TSE:SU	Suncor Energy Inc	1.2
NYSE:BERY	Berry Global Group Inc	1.2
TSE:XEC	iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index ETF	1.1
TSE:TD	Toronto-Dominion Bank	1
GOOG	Alphabet Inc Class C	1
TSE:GIB.A	CGI Inc	0.9
TSE:BAM	BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT LTD	0.9
Cash	Cash	0.8
TSE:HCG	Home Capital Group Inc	0.8
TPB	Turning Point Brands Inc	0.7
TSE:TCN	Tricon Residential Inc	0.6
META	Meta Platforms Inc	0.6
TSE:ZEO	BMO EQUAL WEIGHT OIL & GAS INDEX ETF	0.5
TSE:PIPE	Pipestone Energy Corp	0.5
BABA	Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR	0.2
CVE:LMN	Lumine Group Inc	0.1
CVE:RX	Biosyent Inc	0.1

[Gregmal]

18 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^ Fooling Some of the People, All of the Time" ??   Enjoyed that one. Lotta truth in that clip.

Learned so much from that book. Lot of useful direct and indirect lessons to be learned there. 

[cubsfan]

It was a great lesson on the difficulties of short selling. So frustrating at times. I learned the hard way that you can be right about everything in terms of valuation, but the stock stays up like an airball forever - or keeps going up.  It's a great story.

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Was doing some weekend cleaning. Found an old book which concluded with this gem.

 

 

 

At the very first Value Investing Conference held in New York, I watched Einhorn talk about a stock he was shorting for 45 minutes with like 150 slides.  While he was talking, I could see tens of hedge fund managers in the audience dialing their Blackberries and putting in orders to short the stock he was talking about.

 

At the same meeting, Herb Greenberg and Jim Chanos talked about what a crook Prem Watsa was and how Fairfax was a fraud.  They each went on for at least half an hour.  After his talk, I cornered Herb Greenberg and asked him about his research on Fairfax...if he had even read an annual report.  He said, "no, but that he had two guys tell him all about it and he believes them."  I then asked again, so you've never actually done any of your own research on Fairfax.  He once again said, "no."

 

I have nothing against short-selling, but I have big problem when people call out a person or company as fraud, but do zero research.  As we know now, there was a lot of coordinated shorting of Fairfax, with unethical/illegal distribution of analyst reports before release to various hedge funds.  I'm sure there are shenanigans on both sides...long or short.  But Einhorn's moral high ground on shorting and naming Fairfax, Biovail and Overstock is kind of bullshit!  He never talks about New Century...never...and he was head of the audit committee! 

 

Talk about "Fooling Some of the People, All of the Time!"  Cheers!

[Gregmal]

33 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

At the very first Value Investing Conference held in New York, I watched Einhorn talk about a stock he was shorting for 45 minutes with like 150 slides.  While he was talking, I could see tens of hedge fund managers in the audience dialing their Blackberries and putting in orders to short the stock he was talking about.

 

At the same meeting, Herb Greenberg and Jim Chanos talked about what a crook Prem Watsa was and how Fairfax was a fraud.  They each went on for at least half an hour.  After his talk, I cornered Herb Greenberg and asked him about his research on Fairfax...if he had even read an annual report.  He said, "no, but that he had two guys tell him all about it and he believes them."  I then asked again, so you've never actually done any of your own research on Fairfax.  He once again said, "no."

 

I have nothing against short-selling, but I have big problem when people call out a person or company as fraud, but do zero research.  As we know now, there was a lot of coordinated shorting of Fairfax, with unethical/illegal distribution of analyst reports before release to various hedge funds.  I'm sure there are shenanigans on both sides...long or short.  But Einhorn's moral high ground on shorting and naming Fairfax, Biovail and Overstock is kind of bullshit!  He never talks about New Century...never...and he was head of the audit committee! 

 

Talk about "Fooling Some of the People, All of the Time!"  Cheers!

Totally. Like I said, that book taught me so much about so many different avenues on Wall Street. You know who nails it? In the last chapter Dave is talking about a chat he had with Buffett(of course not mentioning that he paid for it) and how Buffett on his Allied short opines something along the lines of, “don’t know the company but these generally aren’t good ideas because your short position is just a small piece of your portfolio. Whereas the people you’re attacking it’s everything to them”. Spot on from the legend on the difficultly of shorting. 
 

Another thing I learned over the years and that this book validates, is that much of this short term, market moving game is about controlling media and narrative. That’s why short sellers are always so crazy about grabbing headlines and seizing every ounce of the discussion. It’s why they hold press conferences(laughable in its own right considering the positions are typically sub 10% allocations and they…the fund managers, don’t really have anything to do with the company) and immediately respond to anything the company does to defend itself. The book itself is a great example. Controlling the narrative. In 2002 Einhorn pitched Allied short as his best idea. It was a total bust for what? Half a decade? Until he was bailed out by a generational market wide event. Again, narrative control..one he’s conditioned people to think “he called”…except “the guy who called it” was long a major position in New Century Financial from the top in 2005, and in 2008 lost like 25% LOL. He was so well prepared from calling it, that he then proceeded to bounce back from his -25% in 2008, by putting together one of the most embarrassing 15 year runs you’ll ever see from an “investing legend”, a status he “earned” by coming straight out of school, with no resume or real world experience, and making money in the mid/late 90s(who wasn't?), with a hedge fund that was practically given to him….so yea. 

 

And Chanos is another one. Look at him...he sits around all day "tweeting for alpha" and using almost every opportunity he gets to go on TV and monetize his name to move individual positions. I remember that clown pitching a "short Caterpillar" and knocking the stock down 5% to like 80 in like 2015...great call Jim....Not how I envision making money in my 70s. Compare that to a guy I have real respect for, Steve Eisman, who when he's asked for examples of stuff he is short, gracefully declines and states that he doesnt like publicly talking about individual company shorts...you know, cuz if your work is right, you dont need to manipulate or move the markets using the media or other scumbag avenues. 

Edited April 1, 2023 by Gregmal

[John Hjorth]

On 3/31/2023 at 2:58 AM, Xerxes said:

 

This is the first time I have seen that the "Cheers!" is not on a new line

Gotcha !

 

21 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Yup...if there is no "cheers" then it is either a discipline post or somebody died. 

 

Otherwise the "cheers" have been ending my posts since February 20, 2002 when the COBF first started!  

 

Cheers!

 

 

This is soo funny to me! 

 

Personally, I have experienced quite a bit here on CoBF in the last decade [yes, now more than a decade - many other still active on here and esteemed CoBF members beat that by multiples!]

 

- During that period ,in wich I've been a CoBF member, I have experienced quite a lot on here, all things not always a pleasant experience.

 

I've actually from time to time had thoughts about "leaving" / logging out for good [I would never delete my CoBF account] - that has been when the posting style from someone [or several someones] has been confrontational, personal, here including namecalling and I don't know what.

 

Those periods in the existence of CoBF are fortunately over now, and has been so for many years now - and will hopefully not come back again.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Just to share here my experience from back then here on CoBF when you may be in personal trouble, based on your posting : 

 

I have always thought that a CoBF member should in any circumstance just "be your honest inner self" while posting.

Edited April 1, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

Einhorn claims in the last “Invest like the best” podcast that “Value investing doesn’t work any more”.

I think it’s strong statement and sort of funny as if Mr Market has any obligation to agree with his view when he put in a 100 page slide presentation.

 

Or reversely, I guess it’s a problem for him, if he present a short and the Markt yawns and the stock stays where it is or even goes up. For a while 10 years ago, he could move markets and just be right because a lot of people followed his coattails and stocks went his way after he present a thesis. Now he is just treated like everyone else and Mr Market yawns and now it’s like “Value investing does not work any more” because he can’t move market any more.

 

I think there is a certain arrogance in this way of thinking. 

[Xerxes]

7 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Einhorn claims in the last “Invest like the best” podcast that “Value investing doesn’t work any more”.

I think it’s strong statement and sort of funny as if Mr Market has any obligation to agree with his view when he put in a 100 page slide presentation.

 

Or reversely, I guess it’s a problem for him, if he present a short and the Markt yawns and the stock stays where it is or even goes up. For a while 10 years ago, he could move markets and just be right because a lot of people followed his coattails and stocks went his way after he present a thesis. Now he is just treated like everyone else and Mr Market yawns and now it’s like “Value investing does not work any more” because he can’t move market any more.

 

I think there is a certain arrogance in this way of thinking. 

 

Spek,

There another podcast where Einhorn dropped by few weeks ago on CNBC.

He was very clear that what he has been saying is that "value investing as a business doesn't work anymore" not that value investing in of itself does not work anymore.

 

You can watch it for free by going through the Podcast as the link is through a firewall

 

Watch CNBC's full interview with Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn

 

 

 

[Xerxes]

52 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

I have always thought that a CoBF member should in any circumstance just "be your honest inner self" while posting.

 

 

100% agree.

Just be yourself.

 

[Xerxes]

Here is my portfolio. Waited for end of Q1 so that I can also post the gain/losses.

 

10.8% gain in Q1 for me for TFSA/RRSP/LIRA on the back of tax-selling dip that locked in the numbers for Q4 2022. With a low base of Dec 2022, mathematically Q1 % gain looks decent. With this gain, I have largely offset most of the 11.4% losses in 2022 and largely flat when compared to the start of 2022.

 

Not that any of this matter anyways. Investment results and your personal input and the resultant are measured over decades. I am just floating up and down with the beta. 

 

I seldom trade. My only transaction in Q1 was to add to Onex and buy Occidental as a new position.

 

Portfolio composition:

 

Agnostic Allocators:

Berkshire                       12.2%

FFH/FIH                         14.8%

BAM/BN/BIP/BEP etc.   9.3%

Onex                               5.2%

 

Resources:

Barrick                           3.1%

Exxon                             6.8%

Stelco                            3.1%

Occidental                     1.5%

 

Technology:

IAC/ANGI                       2.2%

Amazon                         6.5%

Alphabet                        6.5%

Mercadolibre                 4.2%

 

MidCap:

Raytheon                       5%

CoucheTard                   5%

Walt Disney                    4.7%

Bombardier                    4.3%

General Motors              2.9%

Starbucks                       1.6%

 

Edited April 1, 2023 by Xerxes

[Gregmal]

21 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

think there is a certain arrogance in this way of thinking. 

That is kind of what’s always rubbed me the wrong way. He hasn’t really demonstrated he s all that great of an investor and really has been handed everything. From how he started off to getting credit that wasn’t deserved. He “called the GFC and Lehman” but owned New Century(was on the board actually!) and lost almost 1/3 of his fund in 08….When it doesn’t go his way he whines like an entitled brat. Ackman minus the investing acumen. Not quite Peter Schiff though. Who reportedly lost over 80% of client funds in the crash and then a year later wrote a book saying he told us all and that next gold was going to $5000 bc of hyperinflation in 2012.

I’ve brought it up before but you have to admire Prem Watsas resurgence. Ackman too although he’s quickly blowing it again…but those guys shut up and reset and got back to their bread and butter. Einhorn did +36% last year and it’s classic blind squirrel getting a nut. Why? Bc the process was the same one that caused him to squander the past 15 years. Ego driven and petty….IE betting against Tesla and tech stocks and it finally fell and bizarrely thinking he was sticking it to Musk buying Twitter which also worked. But nothing at all changed in the process and I’d wager he turned in a turd Q1 ‘23. 

[Gregmal]

Part of investing is adapting. Valuing investing doesn’t work? Tell that to someone who took a textbook approach in 2020….maybe started a long/short fund. Whereas if you started in 2009 you probably have a different view. Why do you think there’s so many guys who look like geniuses that are “value” investors born from the ashes of the tech bubble in the late 90s? So there’s two things, luck in terms of when you start, and for longevity…ability to evolve your process and read the market environment. 

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

 

 

This is soo funny to me! 

 

Personally, I have experienced quite a bit here on CoBF in the last decade [yes, now more than a decade - many other still active on here and esteemed CoBF members beat that by multiples!]

 

- During that period ,in wich I've been a CoBF member, I have experienced quite a lot on here, all things not always a pleasant experience.

 

I've actually from time to time had thoughts about "leaving" / logging out for good [I would never delete my CoBF account] - that has been when the posting style from someone [or several someones] has been confrontational, personal, here including namecalling and I don't know what.

 

Those periods in the existence of CoBF are fortunately over now, and has been so for many years now - and will hopefully not come back again.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Just to share here my experience from back then here on CoBF when you may be in personal trouble, based on your posting : 

 

I have always thought that a CoBF member should in any circumstance just "be your honest inner self" while posting.

 

Those times will come and go...I just hope posters stick around for the long-term like you John...and everyone else!  We've got a special community here...pimples and all!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

50 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Einhorn claims in the last “Invest like the best” podcast that “Value investing doesn’t work any more”.

I think it’s strong statement and sort of funny as if Mr Market has any obligation to agree with his view when he put in a 100 page slide presentation.

 

Or reversely, I guess it’s a problem for him, if he present a short and the Markt yawns and the stock stays where it is or even goes up. For a while 10 years ago, he could move markets and just be right because a lot of people followed his coattails and stocks went his way after he present a thesis. Now he is just treated like everyone else and Mr Market yawns and now it’s like “Value investing does not work any more” because he can’t move market any more.

 

I think there is a certain arrogance in this way of thinking. 

 

There was a crew around Einhorn when he would short.  Whenever he would put out one of his huge research presentations on a target, that would suddenly be one of the investment ideas for a handful of other hedge fund managers that would promote it...one rhymes with "Wilson", who no longer manages a fund.  Wilson would run with any idea Einhorn or Ackman threw around.  Now that many of those hedge fund managers have retired or closed their funds, Einhorn's ideas don't generate as much interest as in the past.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

13 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Part of investing is adapting. Valuing investing doesn’t work? Tell that to someone who took a textbook approach in 2020….maybe started a long/short fund. Whereas if you started in 2009 you probably have a different view. Why do you think there’s so many guys who look like geniuses that are “value” investors born from the ashes of the tech bubble in the late 90s? So there’s two things, luck in terms of when you start, and for longevity…ability to evolve your process and read the market environment. 

 

Look at David Rosenberg and Grantham...two very smart guys.  But you get stuck on your bias and they have been screaming bloody murder that another Depression is around the corner for over 10 years.  In the mean time, opportunity after opportunity passed them by.  

 

History is a good guide for markets long-term, but markets can do extraordinary things for longer periods than people think.  If you wait for cycles to come and go, you could be very wrong on both ends of that timeline.  Cheers!