GPT 4

[stockman500]

It is obvious Chat GPT is huge and will revolutionize and disrupt a lot of industries in the next several years in very big ways.

 

In this thread let's discuss the best pure plays for Chat GPT disruption whether long or short.

 

Most obvious at the moment

Long Idea: Microsoft, they are introducing Chat GPT 4 into Bing Search. Excel and a lot of other Microsoft Software Products will have Copilot added to them which has Chat GPT 4 embedded in it.

Long Idea: Duolingo, just announced a new subscription tier with Chat GPT 4 learning features added. 

Long Idea: Google. They have only announced some products like Bard and copilot like features for their Software tools like sheets and meetings and rumor is it can rival Chat GPT yet to be released.

 

These companies are too big imo and ideally the best plays would be smaller market cap companies that are adjacent and stand to benefit greatly.

 

I think the most recent technology cycle this is comparable to is iPhones and the App Store taking off but this will be much bigger in scale and there is a lot of money that can be made by using this new tool. 

Edited March 17, 2023 by stockman500

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Best play actually be OpenAI itself, but revolutionary tech is rarely public. MSFT would be the most obvious idea imo because not everyone can shoulder the cost of developing something like GPT unless they are really big corporations. We can all agree that AAPL, META also have something in the works but just haven't shown it to the world yet.

 

Duolingo is one I don't understand, they are just hitting all the buzz words, I think GPT will be useless in case of Duolingo because GPT is not the one learning the language, the guy who is paying for it, the customer is learning it. If I am as dumb as a rock, GPT can do little to help me. The only use of GPT in this context would be to tailor learning for the individual consumer which I don't know the effectiveness of, 'Explain my answer' and 'Roleplay' are suspect for me, I can't gauge how useful they are.

Edited March 17, 2023 by whatstheofficerproblem

[stockman500]

Asking Chat GPT 4 what companies to short

 

As an AI language model, I cannot provide real-time financial advice or predict specific stock market outcomes. However, I can provide some examples of sectors and companies that might face challenges as a result of Chat GPT-4's disruption. Please note that shorting stocks can be a risky strategy, and it's essential to conduct thorough research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Here are some examples of sectors that might be negatively impacted by Chat GPT-4:

1. Traditional Customer Service Providers: Companies like Sykes Enterprises (SYKE) and Sitel Group (private) may face increased competition from AI-driven solutions, leading to potential revenue declines.

2. Content Creation and Translation Agencies: Firms specializing in content creation, editing, and translation services might face significant disruption as AI-powered language models like Chat GPT-4 become more capable and cost-effective. Examples include Lionbridge Technologies (LIOX) and RWS Holdings (RWS.L).

3. Low-Skilled Job Providers: Companies that rely on a workforce to perform tasks that could be automated by Chat GPT-4, such as data entry and simple customer support, may see their business models threatened by the widespread adoption of AI. Examples include Kelly Services (KELYA) and ManpowerGroup (MAN).

Remember that these suggestions are speculative and not guaranteed to perform as expected. Conducting thorough research and consulting with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions is crucial.

 

Edited March 17, 2023 by stockman500

[stockman500]

12 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Best play actually be OpenAI itself, but revolutionary tech is rarely public. MSFT would be the most obvious idea imo because not everyone can shoulder the cost of developing something like GPT unless they are really big corporations. We can all agree that AAPL, META also have something in the works but just haven't shown it to the world yet.

 

Duolingo is one I don't understand, they are just hitting all the buzz words, I think GPT will be useless in case of Duolingo because GPT is not the one learning the language, the guy who is paying for it, the customer is learning it. If I am as dumb as a rock, GPT can do little to help me. The only use of GPT in this context would be to tailor learning for the individual consumer which I don't know the effectiveness of, 'Explain my answer' and 'Roleplay' are suspect for me, I can't gauge how useful they are.

The current market conditions are horrible for mania, but I think this could also play out as a boom bust cycle where the hype starts taking anything with Chat GPT 4 association to new heights like the dot com bubble.

 

Edited March 17, 2023 by stockman500

[stockman500]

I asked Chat GPT again for a list of 10 tickers to short and a reason for each.

 

Here is a list of 10 publicly traded companies with market capitalizations over $500 million that might face challenges due to AI disruption, such as the widespread adoption of Chat GPT-4, along with reasons for potential disruption:

1. Concentrix Corporation (CNXC) - As a customer experience solutions company, Concentrix could face pressure from AI-driven customer service solutions that may offer cost savings and increased efficiency.

2. TTEC Holdings (TTEC) - As a customer experience technology and services company, TTEC might face competition as AI solutions become more prominent in the industry, potentially leading to reduced demand for human-operated customer service centers.

3. Alorica Inc. (ALOR) - Alorica, a customer experience and call center outsourcing provider, could be disrupted by AI-driven customer service solutions, which might be more cost-effective and efficient than traditional call centers.

4. Teleperformance (TEP.PA) - Teleperformance, a customer experience management company, may face increased competition from AI-driven customer service solutions that can automate tasks and improve overall efficiency.

5. Sykes Enterprises (SYKE) - As a provider of customer engagement services, Sykes could be impacted by the adoption of AI-powered customer service solutions, which could reduce the need for human-operated customer support.

6. Lionbridge Technologies (LIOX) - Lionbridge, specializing in content creation, editing, and translation services, might face significant disruption as AI-powered language models like Chat GPT-4 become more capable and cost-effective.

7. RWS Holdings (RWS.L) - As a provider of translation and localization services, RWS Holdings could be disrupted by AI-powered language models that offer faster, more accurate translation services at a lower cost.

8. Kelly Services (KELYA) - Kelly Services, a company that relies on a workforce to perform tasks that could be automated by Chat GPT-4, such as data entry and simple customer support, may see their business model threatened by the widespread adoption of AI.

9. ManpowerGroup (MAN) - Similar to Kelly Services, ManpowerGroup, which provides workforce solutions, could face challenges as tasks performed by their workforce may be automated by AI technologies like Chat GPT-4.

10. GDS Holdings (GDS) - As a provider of data center solutions, GDS Holdings could face disruption due to increased demand for cloud computing services from companies like Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Microsoft Azure, which can support the growth of AI technologies like Chat GPT-4.

Remember, these are just examples, and investing in the stock market always carries inherent risks. It is crucial to conduct thorough research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

[formthirteen]

My predictions du jour:

1. With the introduction of ChatGPT and other similar technologies, competition for the most talented workers in the top n% will intensify, while those in the bottom n% will likely continue to rely on government aid, as they do presently.

2. The adoption of ChatGPT detection technology for fraud prevention is expected to create more millionaires than even ChatGPT itself.

3. Due to its AI's capability to generate highly engaging content, $META is poised to become the world's largest company, surpassing even individual content creators.

4. As trust in brands continues to grow, the most reputable ones will see a corresponding increase in their overall value.

5. The incorporation of ChatGPT into fields like medicine, law, and engineering will result in fatalities.

6. I'll pour myself another glass of whiskey.

 

Edited March 17, 2023 by formthirteen

[stockman500]

This is like Crypto but it's an actual technology with actual, very significant, real world use cases and it's only improving at very fast speeds.

It's a very big real invention, comparable in significance and probably more so than personal computers and the internet. 

Chat GPT 4 was able to pass the LSAT at like the 90th percentile of test takers. It's starting to show moderate success on even Leetcode Medium Problems 21/80 and does pretty well on easy problems 31/41. It scores 700 on SAT MATH, 710 on SAT Reading and Writing.

Basically you have a program that can replicate the skill levels of an above average intelligence human. Just crazy. The only thing that's missing is the ability to do manual tasks. 

Go onto Twitter and see people just asking it for a simple Phone App or Website and it creates it out of thin air and gives you the code. The Code works and it's able to explain to you what each line does. It's absolutely insane. 

Edited March 17, 2023 by stockman500

[whatstheofficerproblem]

4 hours ago, formthirteen said:

I'll pour myself another glass of whiskey.

 

Cheers! For some reason I only saw this, enough AI for me.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

4 hours ago, stockman500 said:

This is like Crypto but it's an actual technology with actual, very significant, real world use cases and it's only improving at very fast speeds.

It's a very big real invention, comparable in significance and probably more so than personal computers and the internet. 

 

This is precisely why every company using the 'G' word (GPT) is seeing stock price skyrocket. It truly is a marvelous invention, akin to that of the internet, this is why I think in the upcoming years there will be a slew of AI companies that will go public and trade at ridiculous prices, I expect another Dot Com Bubble but more violent because now we have VCs and Private Capital the likes of which we never had during the Dot Com Bubble.

[stockman500]

I put in small shorts on TTEC and MAN today, have positions in Microsoft and Duol. 

 

I really want to start going balls long some LEAPS on Microsoft and maybe Google before it's too late, but the macro isn't the greatest atm. 

The news cycle is extremely fast these days and with the way stocks moved during the pandemicI think these things can play out pretty pretty quick too. 

Edited March 17, 2023 by stockman500

[stockman500]

34 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

This is precisely why every company using the 'G' word (GPT) is seeing stock price skyrocket. It truly is a marvelous invention, akin to that of the internet, this is why I think in the upcoming years there will be a slew of AI companies that will go public and trade at ridiculous prices, I expect another Dot Com Bubble but more violent because now we have VCs and Private Capital the likes of which we never had during the Dot Com Bubble.

I think also with social media nowadays as seen during the pandemic everyone is connected and may be playing the markets again. And the technology to place trades is so seamless and trading costs have come down.

Especially if the narrative becomes you're going to get replaced by these more intelligent and efficient AI Bots so why not just go and buy OOTM calls on the companies that'll replace you. 

Edited March 17, 2023 by stockman500

[whatstheofficerproblem]

The biggest winners should be Citadel, more order flows for Kenny G.

[nafregnum]

7 hours ago, stockman500 said:

I asked Chat GPT again for a list of 10 tickers to short and a reason for each.

 

Here is a list of 10 publicly traded companies with market capitalizations over $500 million that might face challenges due to AI disruption, such as the widespread adoption of Chat GPT-4, along with reasons for potential disruption:

1. Concentrix Corporation (CNXC) - As a customer experience solutions company, Concentrix could face pressure from AI-driven customer service solutions that may offer cost savings and increased efficiency.

 

[ funny thought ]

AI-driven customer service solutions?  The first generations of these will likely make for some very funny customer stories.  Imagine an AI chat bot giving customers incorrect answers, or arguing with customers like Sydney, and tell someone they are a bad customer and it was a good chat bot.  I'm sure they'd have worked all those types of bugs out, but I can imagine some comedy gold will remain to be discovered.

 

[ investing thought ]

To my mind, it seems like the smart companies in these sectors could just as easily adapt to the new GTP landscape and pivot to the future where an LLM is baked into all kinds of software/services/apps.

 

 

 

 

 

[Simba]

IMO it will take a while to adopt at the corporate level, and in the near term, a lot of low level tasks IMO will be automated. 

[stockman500]

 

Edited March 18, 2023 by stockman500

[no_free_lunch]

It's powerful but still seems more just a task augmentation.  You still need to review what it does and give it directions.  Very cool stuff but most human tasks are very diverse and require near perfection. 

Edited March 19, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[formthirteen]

Yeah, this is probably the worst ChatGPT is going to be unless spammers figure out how to break it like they did with Google.

 

This is the way:

 

[Longnose]

https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2023/03/16/introducing-microsoft-365-copilot-your-copilot-for-work/

[competitive-advantage]

I did some experiments with Chat GPT the last days and it's actually quite funny  The picture is from deepai.org

 

Buffett, Munger & Berkshire: The Oddball Trio’s Shenanigans

When investing legends meet slapstick comedy

Introduction

Meet Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and their brainchild, Berkshire Hathaway. This oddball trio’s antics have been making headlines for decades. But have you ever wondered what it would be like if they starred in their own sitcom? Well, buckle up, because you’re about to embark on a hilarious journey into the light-hearted side of this powerhouse trio.

 

Scene 1: The Oracle of Omaha’s Magical 8-Ball

Setting: Warren’s office, where he consults his trusty 8-ball for investment advice.

 

Warren (shaking the 8-ball): “Oh, mighty 8-ball, should we invest in this new tech startup that claims to have invented a time-traveling app?”

 

8-ball: “Reply hazy, try again.”

 

Warren: “Hmm, I guess we’ll just have to use our old-fashioned method of reading annual reports and analyzing balance sheets.”

 

Charlie (entering the room): “You know, Warren, I always thought the 8-ball was just a prop for photo-ops.”

Warren: “You’re right, Charlie. But it’s still more reliable than Wall Street’s predictions!”

 

Scene 2: The Dynamic Duo’s Secret Weapon

Setting: Charlie’s secret lab, where he’s been working on a new investment analysis tool.

 

Charlie: “Warren, I’ve finally done it. I’ve created a tool that can predict the perfect stock pick with 100% accuracy.”

 

Warren: “Charlie, that’s incredible. How does it work?”

 

Charlie: “It’s a complex system of algorithms and data analysis that takes in all available financial data and analyzes it based on the principles of value investing. I call it the ‘Mungerator’.”

 

Warren (laughing): “The Mungerator? I love it. But can we really trust it?”

 

Charlie: “Absolutely, Warren. The Mungerator even predicted the outcome of the last Super Bowl.”

 

Warren (chuckling): “Well, I guess we can’t argue with that kind of track record.”

 

Epilogue

And there you have it, a glimpse into the humorous side of Berkshire Hathaway and its legendary duo, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. Even though they are known for their serious approach to investing, it’s good to see they have a sense of humor about themselves and their investments.

 

Disclaimer

Hold up, folks! Put on your giggle goggles and deflate that serious-o-meter, because this post is the lovechild of a mind-boggling collaboration between our trusty human and the ever-hilarious AI. Our mission? To tickle your funny bones and serve up some light-hearted entertainment!

But remember, relying on this post for investment decisions is like asking a llama to conquer Wall Street. It’s just not gonna end well, capiche?

While we do mention financial gurus like the genius duo Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, or their brainchild, Berkshire Hathaway, please be aware that the views and opinions expressed in this post are solely for amusement purposes. We ain’t representing any corporations or individuals mentioned.

[stockman500]

Is Long Microsoft / Short Google the trade to put on in these uncertain macro times????????

 

If Chat GPT is increasing Bing search traffic and decreasing it for Google and up till now, Microsoft is almost not all reliant on Bing for Revenue and google relies on Search

for almost all of it's revenue and Chat GPT is moving people away from Google to Bing:

 

https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-tech-gives-microsofts-bing-boost-search-battle-with-google-2023-03-22/

Edited March 24, 2023 by stockman500

[tnp20]

My son is playing around with ChatGPT and Google's BARD. My wife and I have had a chance to test ChatGPT as well and are blown away.

 

I asked chatGPT countries with best demographics and best companies, with long term record of stock success, to invest in those countries and the response was amazing - as far as I can tell it was very accurate as I mostly knew the data it was likely to predict so it was more of a test.

 

My wife who is a management consultant was trying to create a presentation on a complex issue and she asked it some questions and the responses were generic so I asked her to tease the system more with more specific and very direct questions (like peeling layers of an onion) and the response got increasingly sophisticated. She is an experienced consultant and she was blown away by the answers. She even asked questions that were more client specific (fortune 500 client) and the responses as far as we could tell were accurate and amazing ....we are truly in a new world and both of us are blown away by the level of detail and complex understading of the questions we asked it.

 

Note that ChatGPT plus model is only updated as of September 2021 so if you ask it if the British Queen is dead - you will get an interesting response. ChatGPT is not connected yet to the internet so it cant pull current weather data or the latest flight information but I suspect its just matter of time before it comes.

 

I dont have direct access to google's BARD but my son does and from what I can tell that system is superior to chatGPT , the model is more updated and its connected directly to internet so you can ask about the weather an flight information as well.

 

Will AI replace traditional search - I am increasingly come to the conclusion yes it will but not completely. We asked chatGPT about directions on BART train system and it got the answer slightly wrong. We asked the same question after a week and the answer seem to get corrected in the plus version. I suspct its about 90-95% accurate based on my trials so someone still needs to verify it manually if the output data quality is super important. Also, google has their own version which seems to be better, more accurate, they have deliberately made the BARD more passive/downbeat and you can;t ask either systems questions that are troublesome like how to make a bomb etc.

 

You'll get a chuckle out of the response from BARD on this question....

 

 

*EDIT*: I just noticed "view other drafts" ...may be it has alternate but equally compelling answers where google wins the case ....dont know as I dont have direct access.

 

 

 

Edited March 26, 2023 by tnp20

[tnp20]

I feel people will pay for AI. After trial for a few days, we immediately started paying $20/month for chatgpt. Waiting for google BARD to become open subscription...right now its only on trial for select few, my son is one of them.

 

I think in the first 2 years, about 30% of the search traffic will go to the best AI systems. Google seems slightly ahead of chatGPT but I dont think its very hard for chatGPT to catch up....so its still up in the air who wins the space. Can ad's be placed on the AI systems , yes....can you have some companies pay to rank higher, yes but here is where it gets funny...there is room to abuse the model to favor higher paying search/ad clients so over time I suspect people will gravitate towards the one they find more honest or more republican or more democrat or more to their bent. I suspect the nut jobs on the left or the right might not like the system as will expose their lies and fraud but may be distorted AI models will rise to sprinkle pixe-dust on truth for their consumption of conspiracies and lies.....

 

AI has been around since the 1960s...its usefulness has slowly but increasingly become more sophisticated as computing power has increased and as natural language models have advanced in more recent years and been married to huge amounts of data in search data banks of google/bing, a major break through has been achieved.....this truly is revolutionary as much as the internet was a few decades ago......

 

I suspect this space is now going to exponentially grow...any hedge funds that can marry AI to vast and unique data sets on economics, psychology, investments, companies etc is going to be able to beat the best investors in the next decade....

Edited March 26, 2023 by tnp20

[MattR]

Chat GPT4 is getting plugins. So people can develop plugins for it. Already exisiting one is Wolfram Alpha. Chat GPT4 was bad with math, but now it wont. Still in Beta, but we should get it in the next few months as plus user. 

[formthirteen]

1 hour ago, MattR said:

Chat GPT4 is getting plugins. So people can develop plugins for it. Already exisiting one is Wolfram Alpha. Chat GPT4 was bad with math, but now it wont. Still in Beta, but we should get it in the next few months as plus user. 

 

Yeah, ChatGPT will only get better (except the woke part), while Google will continue its slow decline to irrelevance (for me).

 

Google is 80% spam and 20% ads, or was it the other way around

Edited March 26, 2023 by formthirteen

[Spekulatius]

How do you guys deal with false answers? I find errors in a lot of answers that come back - probably 30% of the answer are partly wrong , if not more. For example, I asked about the spec for my air conditioner unit , based on. Y model number, because I need to replace this spring.

In the answer below, ChatGPT was correct about the capacity, but incorrect about the SEER rating (The SEER rating of my unit is 10) x and yes, it is very old.

 

This is just one example. Some of the math answers that I asked it were incorrect. Sometimes, you can find out directly by asking the question in a different way and you get a conflicting answer. Sometime, ChatGPT just makes facts up. I think it’s like a teenage who thinks it knows everything and makes reckless predictions instead of just saying “I don’t know”. How do you use something like this for work? I am flabbergasted. maybe with coding and very binary stuff, you just test it out, but for the rest of the application, it’s a mixed bag.

 

I did find it working well to create outlines and sometimes generates storylines (like essays). Those are easy to correct though, but in other cases the half truth it spits out can lead to very damaging results.

 

Edited March 26, 2023 by Spekulatius