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What do you think of Analyst Estimates and how useful are they?


Luke

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TIKR Premium gives us Analyst estimates for a few years, what do you guys think of these estimates and are they worth anything? 

 

Whats your take? Do you use them for your thesis? Do Analyst know better? 

 

Would like to know what you think 🙂

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Garbage!  After my first couple of years investing in stocks, I decided I wasn't going to read another analyst report ever again in my life! 

 

It is an absolutely unnecessary industry and a racket for investment banks.  Although, if you get them free they make great fire starters for your wood fireplace or in a crunch...toilet paper! 

 

Cheers!

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4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The short term estimates are useful to understand the market earning expectations. If they are missed the stock is likely going down.

 

I understand and all but it has always been a pet peeve of mine that "reality" is always described as "a miss" and the guys paid to guess are not the "miss."  

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Its like all these people talking about analyst estimates for the index....I wouldnt even know where to start with such nonsense. Or gander why I should give a shit. I would nearly guarantee I outperform most if not all of those analysts who make the forecasts though. But I guess we should care because the computers will rule the day to day. 

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11 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Its like all these people talking about analyst estimates for the index....I wouldnt even know where to start with such nonsense. Or gander why I should give a shit. I would nearly guarantee I outperform most if not all of those analysts who make the forecasts though. But I guess we should care because the computers will rule the day to day. 

Yeah, i had a debate about Apple Forecast and its valuation and then Analyst Estimates came up. 

 

How on earth can you estimate cashflows for the next few years, we dont even know which kind of products will be released during those years...all one could do is look at downside, past performance, other KPI and then make some decent guess based on how the market looks like now. 

 

Just wondered really hard about a 2026 forecast and how one would come up with it 😄

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I use RBC. Even though they are all self directed, my accounts are large enough that i get access to all their research reports (company/industry etc). I find i get a lot of value from the reports their analysts put together. Not the final number… but the build. The logic of how they get to that number. Often i learn some important things i was not thinking about (i am also not an accountant). 


i also find the Q&A sessions with analysts on earnings conference calls is also valuable. The analysts usually ask at least a few important questions. 
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Having said all that, i do find going directly to the sources is the best: company earnings releases and conference calls. 

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2 hours ago, Luca said:

TIKR Premium gives us Analyst estimates for a few years, what do you guys think of these estimates and are they worth anything? 

 

Whats your take? Do you use them for your thesis? Do Analyst know better? 

 

Would like to know what you think 🙂

I use analyst revenue and earning  estimates as an upper bound while I am learning about a stock.  That's it.

 

I've heard they are very accurate predicting about one quarter out, FWIW. 

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23 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

I use analyst revenue and earning  estimates as an upper bound while I am learning about a stock.  That's it.

 

I've heard they are very accurate predicting about one quarter out, FWIW. 

Thanks for sharing!

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