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8 hours ago, bargainman said:

 

Indeed, it's always "day one".  No one asks about how much energy this is all consuming though, and where the new content will come from once everything is generated.

Yeah i have been scratching part about the energy side. Any ideas to play this, datacenters use fixed price energy contracts so can go with select few utilities.

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https://www.klarna.com/international/press/klarna-ai-assistant-handles-two-thirds-of-customer-service-chats-in-its-first-month/

 

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  • The AI assistant has had 2.3 million conversations, two-thirds of Klarna’s customer service chats
  • It is doing the equivalent work of 700 full-time agents
  • It is on par with human agents in regard to customer satisfaction score
  • It is more accurate in errand resolution, leading to a 25% drop in repeat inquiries
  • Customers now resolve their errands in less than 2 mins compared to 11 mins previously
  • It’s available in 23 markets, 24/7 and communicates in more than 35 languages
  • It’s estimated to drive a $40 million USD in profit improvement to Klarna in 2024

 

Sounds like shareholders will love ChatGPT, employees, not so much. Google and others could probably replace 80% of their staff with ChatGPT and nobody would notice. Elon Musk fired 80% of Twitter's employees and it lead to a huge productivity boost for the company.

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  • 3 weeks later...

I watched this interview of Murati and it felt so odd so I looked her up. She's CTO yet has an education in mechanical engineering and has never coded. Meanwhile Ilya Sutkever who built the damn thing is apparently being sidelined and silenced since the failed putsch.

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  • 4 weeks later...

What are people here investing in, other than overheated semiconductor stocks, to capitalize on the AI boom?

 

Here are some ideas:

 

Energy:

 

Dominion Energy (D)

 

Data centers:

 

Equinix (EQIX)

Digital Realty Trust (DLR)

Iron Mountain (IRM)

CyrusOne (CONE)

 

References:
 

https://wtop.com/business-finance/2022/01/n-virginia-still-tops-global-data-center-markets-and-whats-a-gigawatt/

 

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Cushman & Wakefield’s 2022 rankings of the Top 10 Data Center markets in the world places Northern Virginia at the top, a title it has held for years. And it is not even close.

 

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“The rate of increase is just mind boggling. The market is adding anywhere from 300 to 400 megawatts, a third of a gigawatt, every few months. It just keeps multiplying and multiplying,” said Kevin Imboden, senior research manager for Cushman & Wakefield’s data center advisory group.

 

Cushman & Wakefield’s 2022 report predicts Northern Virginia will soon become the world’s first two gigawatt data center market. To put that in perspective, that is two billion watts, or enough to perpetually power 1.5 million homes.

 

 

https://www.coresite.com/blog/top-10-u-s-data-center-markets-and-why-they-are-hot

 

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Boasting more than 250 data centers, Northern Virginia (NOVA) is widely recognized as the data center capital of the world – for good reason.

 

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a recent report predicts Northern Virginia will be the world’s first two-gigawatt data center market. For some context, NOVA is five times larger than the next largest market (Dallas), and larger than the six closest (in terms of number of data centers) markets combined.

 

https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1777796620593004733

 

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I don’t have a geographical breakdown of where this processors were mainly shipped but it seems that Virginia in the US is one State that attracts data centers. It has 3.2m households only.

 

Dominion Energy is the local utility and they seem to forecast a doubling of demand for power from 2022 to 2024. Wow!

 

 

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But Nvidia sells millions of other graphic cards & processors in addition the H100 and has competition too.

Most “AI” product specifications I checked seem to consume 100-500W.

 

It adds up: there are tens of millions of AI processor shipments forecast for years to come.

 

It may mean that the AI sector alone will add a theoretical 1,000 GWh of power demand by 2027 or one Germany + France combined.

 

 

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  • 1 month later...

My perspective is that Nvidia has cornered the market on Compute and all the major AI players are scrambling to get as much as possible to scale their models and gain first mover advantage on this massive opportunity.  This will peak like it did for Cisco and Nortel, but I do not know the timeline and have no insight.

 

The major tech players have no choice but to accelerate the development of their AI models, but the eventual monetization path is not clear.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out, but again I have no insight.

 

Data is the foundation for training these models.  Shutterstock is the leader in providing licensed data for training the AI models.  That is the part of the puzzle that has yet to solved.  I have posted more on the SSTK thread.

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I would break up the ecosystem into its components. What is needed for AI:

-Energy

-Compute

-Data

-Model(s)

-End uses

 

Energy strikes me as a race to the bottom.

 

Compute not far behind (although I am surprised Nvidia has such a large lead here. It's been a year already and nobody has put out a competing product? 

 

Data I see as potential opportunities. Who has the latest/greatest data? How is it gathered/filtered/accessed/sold/used? I think there is opportunity there.

 

Modelling. Kind of goes hand in hand with data. The modelling techniques themselves are well known. So this becomes an exercise in who has the most computing power and data size and quality.

 

End uses. I see a lot of opportunity here (as does the rest of the world). Video is the next step. Who will own the best AI video generator. Adobe? Google/Meta/MSFT? A bit of this circles back to data: how will these models learn/license from all the existing privately owned video (think movies, tv shows) that exists? Are the major film and TV studios going to be big winners here as they (1) License their data for $$$ and (2) use the end product to save $$$? Is someone like Adobe or one of the Tech giants going to control the ecosystem? Perhaps the tech co's get the data for free in exchange for use of the model? Would be a huge win for tech.

 

Of course there are other end uses as well. Curious what some ideas are for winners/losers there.

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