TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 4 Posted February 4 1 minute ago, Milu said: There isn't any way to quantitively value an asset without cashflows, this is the same for Gold, Silver, Rembrant paintings, vintage wine, collectables etc. It's more subjective and relative, but unfortunately can't boil it down to a scientific number, and anybody who says they can is lying. I still hold it though and have previously held gold which also isn't possible to value. Both of these are assets with some degree of scarcity that should trend updwards (in fiat currency) terms as long as governments continue to print load of a non-scarce assets (dollars, euros, yen etc) I fundamentally disagree with you that things without cash flows cannot be valued. That would suggest iron could cost $90 today, $20 tomorrow, and $150 the day after and it would all be the same to us because no one knows how to value it. But I'll tell you what, every single day the people who put capital and labor into producing it agree on a value with those who need it as an input. How do they do that if there's no possible way to put a value on it? Plenty of methods exist for estimating values of commodities and plenty of them are useful for getting ranges of Bitcoin.
Gregmal Posted February 4 Posted February 4 Think the "how do you value it" argument is overrated. I mean we have heard for 15 years, with certainty, "how to value Tesla", and those forecasts have been even more egregious and harmful than just saying "fuck if I know".....as they say, theres a price you pay for certainty. Frankly, I have a pocket full of respect reserved for folks who's conviction is simply "I like the idea"....
Milu Posted February 4 Posted February 4 35 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: I fundamentally disagree with you that things without cash flows cannot be valued. That would suggest iron could cost $90 today, $20 tomorrow, and $150 the day after and it would all be the same to us because no one knows how to value it. But I'll tell you what, every single day the people who put capital and labor into producing it agree on a value with those who need it as an input. How do they do that if there's no possible way to put a value on it? Plenty of methods exist for estimating values of commodities and plenty of them are useful for getting ranges of Bitcoin. Day to day for things like iron or other commodities, yesterday's price tends to be the best indicator of today's price. It doesn't follow some random process where each daily price is completely independent of the previous day. But over time it will go up and down gradually based on supply and demand. Yes there are probably some models that attempt to value gold or other commodities, but I've not spent much time looking into them. If they do exist I'd be curious what they say about gold at $5000, is it fairly valued, overvalued, undervalued based on this model, and how accurate has the model been in the past for estimating gold price. We are on the same page regarding bitcoin and its potential, but I'm just a bit more skeptical when I see people come up with a model to value it.
73 Reds Posted February 4 Posted February 4 27 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Think the "how do you value it" argument is overrated. I mean we have heard for 15 years, with certainty, "how to value Tesla", and those forecasts have been even more egregious and harmful than just saying "fuck if I know".....as they say, theres a price you pay for certainty. Frankly, I have a pocket full of respect reserved for folks who's conviction is simply "I like the idea".... I think it all comes down to what you want to own as an investment, and why. Personally, I'm much more apt to want to invest in a genius than some artificially created scarcity but to each his own.
Parsad Posted February 4 Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Gregmal said: Man, Burry just cant help himself. What an embarrassment. I remember early in my career being impressed by guys whom were generally introduced as "the guy who called.....". Then I began following those guys who "called it"....and realized...well, no shit you called it, all you do is call shit. Can you please just shut up? Now I kinda have an initial bias towards considering the guys whom are defined by a "call" as being lousy investors and egomaniacs. I agree that Burry picked too many macro bets and hurt his reputation, but I think he's right on this one...mainly because I agree with him and said this stuff was shit from day one. Digital currency will replace fiat currency one day...but not this stuff...not in this form. Cheers!
Charlie Posted February 4 Posted February 4 1 hour ago, 73 Reds said: Speculation aside, I'd like someone to explain quantitatively how to value it and why any number makes sense. +2 Over the years a lot of great investors have called Bitcoin worthless. Dubious valuation methods for a dubious asset, because there is no value. The truth is that the new Bitcoin is still the old rat poison. And it doesn´t make a difference if the mayor rat (Mr. T) supports it.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 4 Posted February 4 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Milu said: We are on the same page regarding bitcoin and its potential, but I'm just a bit more skeptical when I see people come up with a model to value it. All models are wrong. Some are useful. Timothy Peterson has models for longer term adoption trends and Bitcoin price. Most of it probably useless on day-to-day price action, but he has successfully nailed future price ranges years in advance using his models as well as identified floor prices in bear markets pretty consistently in the past. I don't expect he has the answer to where it'll trade in April of 2026, but I anticipate he'll be more right than wrong about his prediction for prices in 2030. Edited February 4 by TwoCitiesCapital
Milu Posted February 4 Posted February 4 6 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: All models are wrong. Some are useful. Timothy Peterson has models for longer term adoption trends and Bitcoin price. Most of it probably useless on day-to-day price action, but he has successfully nailed future price ranges years in advance using his models as well as identified floor prices in bear markets pretty consistently in the past. I don't expect he has the answer to where it'll trade in April of 2026, but I anticipate he'll be more right than wrong about his prediction for prices in 2030. Will take a look, thanks.
ICUMD Posted February 4 Posted February 4 (edited) Personally, I've simplified my understanding of Bitcoin as any other 'asset holding'. Similar to a baseball trading card, painting or gold. It has no intrinsic value just like fiat currency. For something to have intrinsic value, it needs to generate cash flow. Perceived value is based on supply and demand. Value is in the eyes of the beholder. In today's world, a story seems to confer tremendous perceived value. The more people you convince of that story, the more perceived value you can derive. There is explosive money that trades hands based on these stories. I think Musk is an tremendous example of that story telling. His companies are built on it. So are the early billionaire investors in Bitcoin. Burry doesn't believe the Bitcoin story. He is not incorrect and many people are in his camp including myself. Problems arise when the story falls apart and believers turn into non believers. Burry is simply pointing out this risk. https://youtu.be/BoJGZM4I62k?si=8eUZQcRiwmsyI-S- Edited February 4 by ICUMD
Buckeye Posted February 4 Posted February 4 If Bitcoin has nothing backing it, and it’s infinitely divisible, is it really that “scarce”?
dealraker Posted February 4 Posted February 4 2 hours ago, Parsad said: I agree that Burry picked too many macro bets and hurt his reputation, but I think he's right on this one...mainly because I agree with him and said this stuff was shit from day one. Digital currency will replace fiat currency one day...but not this stuff...not in this form. Cheers! Exactly!
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 4 Posted February 4 (edited) 3 hours ago, Buckeye said: If Bitcoin has nothing backing it, and it’s infinitely divisible, is it really that “scarce”? Technically, anything is infinitely divisible until you get down to subatomic particles so.... There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin created (far less outstanding accounting for permanent loss). This is verifiable and viewable by anyone with cursory knowledge of coding and who can run their own node. This is different than gold which no one can observe the total in circulation and is only working on estimates (nor does anyone know how much is even mineable on earth - let alone in the nearby planets/asteroids). It's different than fiat where to also can't observe it and simply trust the government not to blow it ...after a long history of governments blowing it. Being able to cut a Bitcoin in half to 0.5 BTC parts is a feature - not a bug. It makes it more spendable, but it doesn't increase the units of BTC outstanding anymore than tearing a dollar in half turns it into two dollars in which to pay your debts. The better question is what is to stop copycat programs from coming along and creating something with exact the same parameters and features of Bitcoin, or similar but slightly different, and how does that "increase" the total outstanding or partition the demand in the space from Bitcoin to these alternatives. That's a more complicated answer, but I'd generally say the longest chain wins and we've seen what happens to hard forks of similar protocols to BTC and time hasn't been their friend. Edited February 4 by TwoCitiesCapital
Buckeye Posted February 5 Posted February 5 Got it, thanks. I see that it’s more pieces to the pie, versus more pies, which is what I was alluding to.
Parsad Posted February 5 Posted February 5 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-sinks-after-treasury-secretary-bessent-says-us-government-cant-tell-banks-to-bail-out-crypto-195504406.html Cheers!
DegenerateGambler Posted February 18 Posted February 18 On 12/7/2025 at 2:35 PM, DegenerateGambler said: am actually short PLTU - the daily 2x palantir shares which mathematically moves in our favor as a short candidate over the long run I took profit on PLTU, which fell from 90 to 38ish. I didn't want to wait for Palantir to hit fair value (which i believe is 60-80ish) because i think "buy the dip" crowd considers any kind of dip a generational opportunity and it may take a long while for PLTR to hit fair value. The stock still is trading at 200+ PE right now and the "buy the dip" crowd will likely buy it back up so I am getting out before that happens.
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