Thread for contrarian ideas

[gfp]

3 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

 

G***r?

 

LOL ...  I gotta ask, is this a reference to a certain homosexual hook up app?

[formthirteen]

6 minutes ago, gfp said:

LOL ...  I gotta ask, is this a reference to a certain homosexual hook up app?

 

Yes 

[KPO]

55 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

These are piker contrarian ideas.

 

A contrarian idea is going long CVNA in late 2022.

 

Or long EOSE in late 2024.

 

Completely hated, dog sh*t stock, that nobody thought had any chance.

 

What's your real contrarian idea?  Something so contrarian you'd be embarrasses to voice it.

I’ll bite. TDOC is one that’s been left for dead in recent weeks.  If strategically positioned properly this is a company that should be on the right side of easing healthcare cost inflation. They also have both scale and a decent balance sheet. They just need to ease off the shareholder dilution of recent years. 

[bizaro86]

1 hour ago, rogermunibond said:

These are piker contrarian ideas.

 

A contrarian idea is going long CVNA in late 2022.

 

Or long EOSE in late 2024.

 

Completely hated, dog sh*t stock, that nobody thought had any chance.

 

What's your real contrarian idea?  Something so contrarian you'd be embarrasses to voice it.

Maybe something like BYND would meet your criteria (not an actual recommendation, but it's certainly contrarian at this point)

 

Screen for things down 90%+ from 52 week highs and try and figure out what will survive?

[Gregmal]

PGY

[rogermunibond]

54 minutes ago, KPO said:

I’ll bite. TDOC is one that’s been left for dead in recent weeks.  If strategically positioned properly this is a company that should be on the right side of easing healthcare cost inflation. They also have both scale and a decent balance sheet. They just need to ease off the shareholder dilution of recent years. 

@KPO that's an interesting idea. FCF positive and decent balance sheet. Good Integrative Care business. Ramping Better Help insurance business, currently only in 12 states + DC.  There's a pretty clear pathway to grow BH.

 

There's a thread for TDOC

 

 

[Spekulatius]

On 2/3/2026 at 12:00 PM, Gregmal said:

PGY

Shat the bed big time too.

 

Most contrarian ideas won’t have an easy ride. However PYPL has run up since earnings. I have some SaaS stocks that are up 40% on basically no News ($HUBS). CSU is up ~25% from the bottom.

Getting the timing right is not easy. I think the right place to look is checking for stocks that are down by large amounts after earnings in somewhat embattled sectors.

 

Some financials  are looking interesting -CRBG, SLM (concern over credit deterioration).

[frommi]

Put options on oil majors is probably the biggest contrarian idea i can think of at the moment.
 

[Gregmal]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Shat the bed big time too.

 

Most contrarian ideas won’t have an easy ride. However PYPL has run up since earnings. I have some SaaS stocks that are up 40% on basically no News ($HUBS). CSU is up ~25% from the bottom.

Getting the timing right is not easy. I think the right place to look is checking for stocks that are down by large amounts after earnings in somewhat embattled sectors.

 

Some financials  are looking interesting -CRBG, SLM (concern over credit deterioration).

Paypal is kinda a mediocre melting ice cube large(relatively speaking)cap masquerading as value. If anything I think over the years we ve seen that when there’s these huge sector wide sell offs, you wanna own the shitcos if and when you expect a turn in sentiment. 

[backtothebeach]

OWL anyone? Seems like only a mad person would buy here - but this is the contrarian thread.

 

"Investors asked to withdraw 40.7% of the shares in technology-focused Blue Owl Technology Income Corp (OTIC), and 21.9% of shares in larger fund Blue Owl Credit Income Corp (OCIC), the funds said in two shareholder updates, citing preliminary figures.

Blue Owl said it would limit payouts to 5% of the shares in each fund."

 

 

[rogermunibond]

Blue Owl Corporation and Tech Fund bonds aren't selling off, so it's probably money good if you can stomach the volatility.

[Castanza]

Some good discussion on $OWL here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tim-travis-on-private-credit-%24owl-%24obdc-and-%24msdl/id1454112457?i=1000756099316

[backtothebeach]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

Some good discussion on $OWL here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tim-travis-on-private-credit-%24owl-%24obdc-and-%24msdl/id1454112457?i=1000756099316

Thank you. Listening to podcasts like these makes me realize that I'm such a tourist in this space, lol.

 

I dipped my toe, though, miniscule position (0.3% notional).

 

[Castanza]

53 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

Thank you. Listening to podcasts like these makes me realize that I'm such a tourist in this space, lol.

 

I dipped my toe, though, miniscule position (0.3% notional).

 

 

Same, too complex for me....as with banks I don't want to have to worry about some crock of shit stewing away on the back burner just waiting to boil over.. Maybe I'll put on a trade, but I can't do anything big with conviction. I don't have the bandwidth or skill to dig through their contracts. There is easier hurdles out there. 

Edited April 2 by Castanza

[UK]

14 hours ago, Castanza said:

I don't want to have to worry about some crock of shit stewing away on the back burner just waiting to boil over..

+1

[Red Lion]

On 4/2/2026 at 7:42 AM, backtothebeach said:

OWL anyone? Seems like only a mad person would buy here - but this is the contrarian thread.

 

"Investors asked to withdraw 40.7% of the shares in technology-focused Blue Owl Technology Income Corp (OTIC), and 21.9% of shares in larger fund Blue Owl Credit Income Corp (OCIC), the funds said in two shareholder updates, citing preliminary figures.

Blue Owl said it would limit payouts to 5% of the shares in each fund."

 

 

 

I added some more to OWL under $10, it's a relatively small position, but I think it could be a homerun from here. I have a much larger position in APO which can also do above average returns from here and I think it's a lot less risky.

[frommi]

Be careful with private credit 

And if you know Soros theory of reflexity it is possible that the redemptions itself lead to increased cost of capital/debt and than to defaults in this space.