China

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, Luca said:

 

India is great, China is great, they will both be bigger economies with more and more influences in the future! 

 

 

After visiting China in 2015 and India in 2019, what I've been saying ever since then is that the Western world better hope that China and India don't find a way of putting aside their border issues and historical disdain for each other.  Because if they ever put a free-trade agreement into place and worked together with the rest of the Asian region, it would dramatically tilt global economic, political and military power!

 

The manpower, brainpower and capital available would dwarf any other free-trade market!  You would then have a serious challenge to the USD.  Thankfully, it is very unlikely that will ever happen.  India and China have a hard enough time keeping their own jurisdictions in line, they would not be able to take a stiff arm approach to other countries like that.  Cheers!

[sleepydragon]

In Chinese history, it’s always preached “near are enemies, remote are friends”. For countries near China’ s boarder, they are always seen has long term threat. Sometime this threat is managed through gifts. My point is, China and Russia will have war again.  Beijing is so close to the Russian border, it can be taken within weeks by Russian tanks. The biggest threats of CCP’s ruling is not America which is far away, but an aggressive Russia.

 

[Castanza]

6 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

In Chinese history, it’s always preached “near are enemies, remote are friends”. For countries near China’ s boarder, they are always seen has long term threat. Sometime this threat is managed through gifts. My point is, China and Russia will have war again.  Beijing is so close to the Russian border, it can be taken within weeks by Russian tanks. The biggest threats of CCP’s ruling is not America which is far away, but an aggressive Russia.

 

Isn’t China trying to work with Russia on belt and road policy? Something tells me after this Ukraine war is over, the long arm of China will step in and help with Russias recovery. They seem to have a knack for stepping into distressed situations as of late. 

[mcliu]

24 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

In Chinese history, it’s always preached “near are enemies, remote are friends”. For countries near China’ s boarder, they are always seen has long term threat. Sometime this threat is managed through gifts. My point is, China and Russia will have war again.  Beijing is so close to the Russian border, it can be taken within weeks by Russian tanks. The biggest threats of CCP’s ruling is not America which is far away, but an aggressive Russia.

 

How will Russia take Beijing when they can’t even take Kiev?

 

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

After visiting China in 2015 and India in 2019, what I've been saying ever since then is that the Western world better hope that China and India don't find a way of putting aside their border issues and historical disdain for each other.  Because if they ever put a free-trade agreement into place and worked together with the rest of the Asian region, it would dramatically tilt global economic, political and military power!

What about BRICS? 

[sleepydragon]

19 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Isn’t China trying to work with Russia on belt and road policy? Something tells me after this Ukraine war is over, the long arm of China will step in and help with Russias recovery. They seem to have a knack for stepping into distressed situations as of late. 

That’s just China being China, want to make money

but Chinese govt know in the history the only country that has taken lands from China is Russia, Japan, and Mongolia.

(mongolia is not too face losing since they are being called Chinese later lol)

 

[sleepydragon]

1 minute ago, mcliu said:

How will Russia take Beijing when they can’t even take Kiev?

 

What about BRICS? 

Kiev has international support.

if China invade Taiwan, and suppose it’s not going well, how confident Xi will be that Russia won’t take more Chinese lands?

I think there were underground bunkers in Beijing built in Mao’s years in case Russian drop a nuke in Beijing.

 

[Spekulatius]

19 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

Kiev has international support.

if China invade Taiwan, and suppose it’s not going well, how confident Xi will be that Russia won’t take more Chinese lands?

I think there were underground bunkers in Beijing built in Mao’s years in case Russian drop a nuke in Beijing.

 

Russia taking China is laughable. If anything it’s going to be the other way around and China chops of some pieces from Russia.

[sleepydragon]

26 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Russia taking China is laughable. If anything it’s going to be the other way around and China chops of some pieces from Russia.

historically, Russian has taken a lot of pieces from China. Russia is weak now though.

 

also, Beijing’s location is unique. It’s very close to Russian border and there’s also a port in Tianjin. It’s not easy to defend if there’s a war between Russia and China. 

[adesigar]

4 hours ago, rohitc99 said:

You will have to look beyond the sensex. 5 companies - reliance, HDFC group, infosys, and icici bank account for 40%+ of it.

it’s not that different.
nifty went from approx 6000 to 18000

nifty 500 from approx 5000 to 15000 

 

In INR returns look decent in USD the returns have not been as good.

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, mcliu said:

 

What about BRICS? 

 

Nothing will come of BRICS.  Too disjointed, distant and each individually vulnerable.

 

I could see RIC, but they are each wary of the others.  But if they ever did get together...

 

Cheers!

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Russia taking China is laughable. If anything it’s going to be the other way around and China chops of some pieces from Russia.

 

I agree.  I think a ground and sea assault favors Russia presently, but that will change over the next decade.

 

Russia will need China's support in virtually every way...economically, politically and militarily...now that NATO has added Finland and will probably add a couple more European countries.  

 

Cheers!

[RadMan24]

6 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

I agree.  I think a ground and sea assault favors Russia presently, but that will change over the next decade.

 

Russia will need China's support in virtually every way...economically, politically and militarily...now that NATO has added Finland and will probably add a couple more European countries.  

 

Cheers!

Depends who comes after Putin and if they view Europe or China as better for mother Russia. 

[Luca]

8 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

After visiting China in 2015 and India in 2019, what I've been saying ever since then is that the Western world better hope that China and India don't find a way of putting aside their border issues and historical disdain for each other.  Because if they ever put a free-trade agreement into place and worked together with the rest of the Asian region, it would dramatically tilt global economic, political and military power!

 

The manpower, brainpower and capital available would dwarf any other free-trade market!  You would then have a serious challenge to the USD.  Thankfully, it is very unlikely that will ever happen.  India and China have a hard enough time keeping their own jurisdictions in line, they would not be able to take a stiff arm approach to other countries like that.  Cheers!

 

3 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Nothing will come of BRICS.  Too disjointed, distant and each individually vulnerable.

 

I could see RIC, but they are each wary of the others.  But if they ever did get together...

 

Cheers!

The videos i linked talked about exactly that, those countries have, as you said, so much manpower, willingness to grow and to rise to higher standards of living, they could have even bigger GDPs and play a way more important role than europe today. And with that of course plenty of competition for the so called safe heavens/companies we would have thought to exist for decades. Imagine if these geopolitical tensions are put aside and technology will be shared globally, many new smaller and bigger competitors coming in. As far as i am aware china is trying to connect and grow: 

 

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative

 

Extrapolate this a few decades, exciting times! 

 

[Spekulatius]

5 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

I agree.  I think a ground and sea assault favors Russia presently, but that will change over the next decade.

 

Russia will need China's support in virtually every way...economically, politically and militarily...now that NATO has added Finland and will probably add a couple more European countries.  

 

Cheers!

Chinas economy, industrial capacity  and manpower is larger than Russia many times over. Also keep in mind that Russias army is now getting totally destroyed. 
Siberia is a logistical nightmare mare for Russia. They can’t even get logistics right in Ukraine, which is in their doorstep - now thinking they can do the same In Siberia and attack China in numbers? There is only one railroad line (Transiberia) which I guess could easily get destroyed.

 

There is no way that Russia attacks China and not get totally destroyed in the process.

[JAK]

10 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

I think there were underground bunkers in Beijing built in Mao’s years in case Russian drop a nuke in Beijing.

 

I remember reading about this before I visited Beijing. The history buff in me wanted to cry... 

Until the 1950s/1960s, Beijing had one of the World's largest and best preserved examples of fortified city walls. This was a series of walls outside the Forbidden City. The British etc. had made a few holes to make way for railroads, and some were damaged in relatively recent rebellions. However, the walls and towers were still standing for the most part.

 

Unfortunately, the powers that be wanted to modernise asap, and also build an underground metro to double as a bunker, and the quickest way to do that was to just knock down the walls and build the ring roads, metros, sewers etc. where they stood. So only a tiny segment of what the walls remain. By contrast, places like Xian or Pingyao, where there was less paranoia / urgency still have their (amazing!) walls.

[Castanza]

8 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

I agree.  I think a ground and sea assault favors Russia presently, but that will change over the next decade.

 

Russia will need China's support in virtually every way...economically, politically and militarily...now that NATO has added Finland and will probably add a couple more European countries.  

 

Cheers!

 

Yeah, I don't see a world where China and Russia are not aligned for the foreseeable future. They both offer each other things the other needs. They both have similar political/economical backgrounds. History aside, Russia has no chance of invading China or let alone taking any city. 

 

China will bankroll Russia after this war is over. They will build the alliance and build out their industry and support each others economies. China will probably want to control Mongolia and extend its influence as well. The more NATO grows, the more these other regimes will draw close together. Humanity is reaching a precipice of what's tolerable in terms of government moving forward. In the next 50-100 years it seems like a hard stance will be taken in one direction or the other. Since WWII alliances on both sides have just been growing stronger and stronger. 

 

China Brazil, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabi, etc. doing deals in currency other than USD is a big deal. 

[rohitc99]

17 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

After visiting China in 2015 and India in 2019, what I've been saying ever since then is that the Western world better hope that China and India don't find a way of putting aside their border issues and historical disdain for each other.  Because if they ever put a free-trade agreement into place and worked together with the rest of the Asian region, it would dramatically tilt global economic, political and military power!

 

The manpower, brainpower and capital available would dwarf any other free-trade market!  You would then have a serious challenge to the USD.  Thankfully, it is very unlikely that will ever happen.  India and China have a hard enough time keeping their own jurisdictions in line, they would not be able to take a stiff arm approach to other countries like that.  Cheers!

I think there was some attempt in the 60s and India was caught napping which resulted in a war. I doubt there will be trust again and btw, there continue to clashes and disputes across the border

[formthirteen]

China “the biggest threat to the Netherlands’ economic security.”:

https://apnews.com/article/intelligence-netherlands-terrorism-threat-russia-china-dutch-cyber-attack-277fb0dc4203cbe6fbbc7ad8476b4184

 

 

Meanwhile in France:

https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2023-04-airbus-and-china-aviation-industry-sign-next-phase-in-partnership

https://www.reuters.com/world/macron-says-europe-should-not-follow-us-or-chinese-policy-over-taiwan-2023-04-09/

 

 

Meanwhile in China, BYD is on the offensive:

 

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by formthirteen

[Luca]

51 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

China “the biggest threat to the Netherlands’ economic security.”:

https://apnews.com/article/intelligence-netherlands-terrorism-threat-russia-china-dutch-cyber-attack-277fb0dc4203cbe6fbbc7ad8476b4184

 

 

Meanwhile in France:

https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2023-04-airbus-and-china-aviation-industry-sign-next-phase-in-partnership

https://www.reuters.com/world/macron-says-europe-should-not-follow-us-or-chinese-policy-over-taiwan-2023-04-09/

 

 

Meanwhile in China, BYD is on the offensive:

 

 

Thank you very much for sharing, i am currently reading the book ,,chip wars,, by chris miller and he also discussed at length how china tries to get access to key technology that they then use themselves. 

 

Just look at some of the quotes:

 

"The most controversial example of technology transfer, however, was by Intel’s archrival, AMD. In the mid-2010s, the company was struggling financially, having lost PC
and data center market share to Intel. AMD was never on the brink of bankruptcy, but it wasn’t far from it, either. The company was looking for cash to buy time as it
brought new products to market. In 2013, it sold its corporate headquarters in Austin, Texas, to raise cash, for example. In 2016, it sold to a Chinese firm an 85 percent
stake in its semiconductor assembly, testing, and packaging facilities in Penang, Malaysia, and Suzhou, China, for $371 million. AMD described these facilities as “worldclass.”

 

"That same year, AMD cut a deal with a consortium of Chinese firms and government bodies to license the production of modified x86 chips for the Chinese market. The
deal, which was deeply controversial within the industry and in Washington, was structured in a way that didn’t require the approval of CFIUS, the U.S. government
committee that reviews foreign purchases of American assets. AMD took the transaction to the relevant authorities in the Commerce Department, who don’t “know
anything about microprocessors, or semiconductors, or China,” as one industry insider put it. Intel reportedly warned the government about the deal, implying that it
harmed U.S. interests and that it would threaten Intel’s business. Yet the government lacked a straightforward way to stop it, so the deal was ultimately waved through,
sparking anger in Congress and in the Pentagon"

 

Just as AMD finalized the deal, its new processor series, called “Zen,” began hitting the market, turning around the company’s fortunes, so AMD ended up not depending
on the money from its licensing deal. However, the joint venture had already been signed and the technology was transferred. The Wall Street Journal ran multiple
stories arguing that AMD had sold “crown jewels” and “the keys to the kingdom.” Other industry analysts suggested the transaction was designed to let Chinese firms
claim to the Chinese government they were designing cutting-edge microprocessors in China, when in reality they were simply tweaking AMD designs. The transaction
was portrayed in English-language media as a minor licensing deal, but leading Chinese experts told state-owned media the deal supported China’s effort to domesticate
“core technologies” so that “we no longer can be pulled around by our noses.” Pentagon officials who opposed the deal agree that AMD scrupulously followed the letter of
the law, but say they remain unconvinced the transaction was as innocuous as defenders claim. “I continue to be very skeptical we were getting the full story from AMD,”
one former Pentagon official says. The Wall Street Journal reported that the joint venture involved Sugon, a Chinese supercomputer firm that has described “making
contributions to China’s national defense and security” as its “fundamental mission.” AMD described Sugon as a “strategic partner” in press releases as recently as 2017,
which was guaranteed to raise eyebrows in Washington.

 

 

Or IBM: 

 

IBM wasn’t the only company willing to help Chinese firms develop data center chips. Around the same time, Qualcomm, the company specializing in chips for
smartphones, was trying to break into the data center chip business usin g an Arm architecture. Simultaneously, Qualcomm was battling Chinese regulators who wanted it
to slash the fees it charged Chinese firms that licensed its smartphone chip technology, a key source of Qualcomm’s revenue. As the biggest market for Qualcomm’s chips,
China had enormous leverage over the company. So some industry analysts saw a connection when, shortly after settling the pricing dispute with Beijing, Qualcomm
agreed to a joint venture with a Chinese company called Huaxintong to develop server chips. Huaxintong didn’t have a track record in advanced chi p design, but it was
based in Guizhou Province, then governed by an up-and-coming Chinese party official named Chen Min’er, industry analysts noted.
The Qualcomm-Huaxintong joint venture didn’t last long. It was closed in 2019 after producing little of value. But some of the expertise developed appears to have
transferred to other Chinese companies building Arm-based data center chips. For example, Huaxintong participated in a consortiu m to develop energy-efficient chips
that included Phytium, another Chinese firm building Arm-based chips. At least one chip design engineer appears to have left Huaxintong in 2019 to work for Phytium,
which the U.S. later alleged had helped the Chinese military design advanced weapons systems like hypersonic missiles.

[sleepydragon]

Ray Dalio just came from from his trip china, and wrote this:

(He's very connected to very high level Chinese officials) 

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-i-think-going-1-china-us-relations-2-other-countries-ray-dalio/

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by sleepydragon

[Morgan]

@sleepydragon Thank you for sharing! 

[Spekulatius]

16 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

Ray Dalio just came from from his trip china, and wrote this:

(He's very connected to very high level Chinese officials) 

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-i-think-going-1-china-us-relations-2-other-countries-ray-dalio/

 

If you believe what Dahlio writes is true, then as investor living in the west, you want to sell any Chinese investment. Similarly as a Chinese person, you want to pull your investment out of the western hemisphere and particularly the US and Europe.

 

Otherwise, if the war (economic or even military) indeed breaks out, you will find yourself on one side of the fence and your money and investments on the other. That pretty much means you lost control over your investments and it is likely a total loss for you.

 

This is true regardless of whether your think what the US or China does is right or justified. You invest in the world as it is, not in the world you want.

Edited April 27, 2023 by Spekulatius

[formthirteen]

Thanks @sleepydragon

 

I have a similar opinion as Mr. Dalio and it's a good thing that he sees things clearly and tries to communicate it to others.

 

Quote

It is an anti-elitist and pro-proletariat environment.

 

Somehow, in all political systems, there's always an elite and the workers always do most of the work. Weird.

 

Quote

As far as the new leaders are concerned, they are saying all the right things that investors in China would want to hear about opening up and being a peacemaker in the world, and they are even continuing to do the right things—e.g., my and Bridgewater’s dealings with the regulators have been excellent. They still have a lot of respect and credibility.

 

Judge people by their actions, not their words.

 

Quote

China under this leadership is more Marxist-communist—i.e., wanting to create more equal opportunities and outcomes—while the US is more capitalist, which leads to greater efficiencies and greater opportunity and greater wealth and income gaps.

 

Equal misery and the same outcome for all (except the elite) vs. unequal prosperity and different outcomes for everyone.

 

I think Charlie Munger needs help with risk management. He has a history of blowing up his investments and getting margin called.

Edited April 27, 2023 by formthirteen

[Luca]

 

1 hour ago, formthirteen said:

Somehow, in all political systems, there's always an elite and the workers always do most of the work. Weird.

What China is trying to do is to flatten out the huge wealth gaps they have, by means of higher taxes/redistribution, forced higher wages etc. Its still a marketbased capitalist economy but with more regulation. If you think higher taxes for billionaires, forced wages in specific sectors or that states buy businesses, germany is also a marxist system haha.

 

1 hour ago, formthirteen said:

Equal misery and the same outcome for all (except the elite) vs. unequal prosperity and different outcomes for everyone.

This is what is done often, its a ridiculous black and white picture. As if china tries to achieve an equal outcome for all, all they try to do is not to end up like the US is ending up right now. Increasing political instability, stagnating economy, no prosperity for the little guy etc. 

 

1 hour ago, formthirteen said:

I think Charlie Munger needs help with risk management. He has a history of blowing up his investments and getting margin called.

Why does he need help with risk management? He invested in two great big, well run businesses in one of the largest growing economies that gains partners all over the planet in rapid speed. A country that is at the top in many of the futures fields. He rightfully agrees that the valuations compensate for the slight increase in geopolitical uncertainty but as he said, it would be bonkers if there is war between US and China. Why would anyone be so stupid and risk a war, Ray Dalio puts it perfectly, its not in the interest of anybody. Credits to @Dave86ch for this: 

 

[Luca]

And its not an anti elitist movement per se, China welcomes entrepreneurship that increases the live of everybody in the society, good paying Jobs, well made products, higher quality of life etc. What they hate are bragging billionaires that abuse workers, pay bad wages, harm the economy by monopolising etc. Ray Dalio also streched that chinese dont like rich people, they dont like rich people that got rich by abusing others...