China

[Spekulatius]

37 minutes ago, UK said:

Btw re this BRICS alliance: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-31/india-china-tensions-threaten-to-leave-modi-empty-handed-at-g-20

I think the problem with BRICS is that only China and India really matter and they don't trust each other.

 

For me the biggest news is that the gulf states and especially Saudi Arabia were added. The Saudi's indeed are a powerhouse, albeit fragile from within. They have been traditionally allied with the US but that relationship has soured so now the Saudi's need new partners to assure that their oil keeps flowing.

Edited August 31, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Luke]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Because China is aggressive and has virtually attacked all their neighbors post WW2.

 

Tibet 1946 (annexed)

Korea 1950

Taiwan straight 1955/1958

Myanmar 1960

India 1962 (and several times after that)

Russia 1969

Vietnam 1979

 

Most were under Mao but Vietnam 1979 was not. XJP is a neo Maoist, so if you are China's neighbor, you should be concerned. There is also currently a cold war with the Philippines going on, due to China planting concrete Island and then declaring the ocean around it theirs.

I could give you many examples in the past where we have seen aggressive attacks by the US during that time frame.

[Luke]

1 hour ago, tnp20 said:

If you look at China's friends globally, these are mostly low quality (economic and technological) friends and so at best its ambitions will be limited to reginal power play.

Can we even talk about "friends" in geopolitics? I only see it as common or uncommon interests, i dont even see Russia and China as Friends, China is just playing their cards that should lead to the result of benefits to China (cheap energy for economy, exports, wanting "stability" in ukraine and russia due to food exports, they wouldnt mind russia taking over ukraine as a whole). 

1 hour ago, tnp20 said:

Anyway which you analyze this, you wonder why Xi is playing a poor Chess game even if he is thinking 50 years ahead.

I dont think he is playing a "poor" chess game, if you read a bit through what he has done during his time in political positions there are massive amounts of positive evidence incl pushing for privatization for the benefit of the economy. Yes he makes mistakes but its too simple and maybe almost naive to place China or Xi or the CCP in one black and white position. (newspapers like it though because it grabs attention). 

1 hour ago, tnp20 said:

Long term success of China will depend on "High-tech" innovation ...and probably I should qualify that as "High-tech innvation in strategic areas that matter"  and undoubtedly they will make some progress...but it can not match and will never match the western led order and shared knowledge worker pool.

They are already leading in citations worldwide in science research (massive) and I have quoted the incredibly bad results of US kids in schools, China is leading in math etc and work ethic is hard! (true for most Asian countries, SK, Taiwan etc). 

 

Putting off chinas progress in semiconductor production would be way to quick, I am quite convinced they will be competitive in that sector over time. If the western worker pool would be so superior, they wouldnt have come so far ahead in the automobile sector. 

1 hour ago, tnp20 said:

No one wants to go live in China and set up high tech start up.

They really have plenty enough people to do that already. 

 

Edited August 31, 2023 by Luca

[Luke]

I dont remember the name of that specific sinologist who covered Xi Jinping but i read that Xi thinks ONLY the CCP can govern china and otherwise they would collapse. Its interesting to think about, the whole structure of the country is setup under CCP rule and trying to install a different system would come with unpredictable instability. I have come more and more to peace with the CCP, the "communist" name is really a left behind of CCP history, I have heard from Frank Sieren that many older chinese people are used to it and it became some sort of heritage. Reality is so far away from communism as it can get. 

[Luke]

And also to add, it's an interesting thought experiment to think about how many advantages or disadvantages a democracy has vs a "benevolent" ruler (in this case the CCP) that has long term full control. In Germany there is so little progress because of the blocking of some party that has their own agenda, projects do not get done fast, regulation is lacking, very inefficient government etc. 

[james22]

59 minutes ago, Luca said:

And also to add, it's an interesting thought experiment to think about how many advantages or disadvantages a democracy has vs a "benevolent" ruler (in this case the CCP) that has long term full control.

 

Are you posting from your freshman dorm room, Luca?

[Luke]

3 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Are you posting from your freshman dorm room, Luca?

Hahaha, gladly not! But I see you are left with no arguments and now refer to personal insults

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

And also to add, it's an interesting thought experiment to think about how many advantages or disadvantages a democracy has vs a "benevolent" ruler (in this case the CCP) that has long term full control. In Germany there is so little progress because of the blocking of some party that has their own agenda, projects do not get done fast, regulation is lacking, very inefficient government etc. 

Benevolent rulers have become malevolent rulers fairly quick. History is not on your side with this one.

 

The same arguments have been used to justify monarchies etc. Democracy's are not perfect, but there is no alternative, imo.

[tnp20]

2 hours ago, Luca said:

They are already leading in citations worldwide in science research (massive) and I have quoted the incredibly bad results of US kids in schools, China is leading in math etc and work ethic is hard! (true for most Asian countries, SK, Taiwan etc). 

 

Putting off chinas progress in semiconductor production would be way to quick, I am quite convinced they will be competitive in that sector over time. If the western worker pool would be so superior, they wouldnt have come so far ahead in the automobile sector. 

 

West won the war against USSR. When faced with a more strategic challenge, a Western led order will rise to the occasion and beat China.

 

Why ?

 

Focus on the big items:-

 

(i) Top 3 economies in the world will be USA, China, India over the next 30 years. You can bet India will not be in China orbit ever. USA+India alone will be enough to outdo China. India has demographic benefits, the STEM majors, and excellent schools in IIT (modelled on MIT) and IIM (modelled on Harvard).

 

(ii) I agree that USA STEM is abysmal. But, its top Universities are excellent and full of STEM students from India, China and Russia....many patents are by these very some folks at the forefront of research. Even if Chinese had good schools, I doubt many foreign students want to go to china becuase of both language barrier and lack of freedoms imposed by CCP (which were evidently in display during COVID with their draconian measures). The CHinese students that come to the USA, by and large stay here.

 

(iii) China faces not just the USA, but USA and allied countries like Japan, Germany, Korea, France, UK, Switzerland are current technology and biotech powerhouses, each has strengths in different areas but united as a group is more powerful than CHina. India likely will be an emerging one in about 20 years.

 

The whole MRNA vaccine war was interesting. China did not accept the western MRNA vaccines despite being superior and beneficial. They preferred to prod along to develop in-house. MRNA was technology from Germany, USA and France...so it reiterates the point that alliance combined will always be more powerful than China lone. Xi's vaccine nationalism was parmount stupidity, especially when he could have shortened the needless lockdowns.

Edited August 31, 2023 by tnp20

[tnp20]

China was on a good trajectory before Xi. Lot of my long term Chinese friends thought that the country would open up more and have some form of democracy even with CCP in power. If that had continued and if we could project out 20-30 years, one would see China playing nice in the US led world order developing their economic , technological and political chops quietly without the needless friction and then slowly exerting their political influence by building alliances in the neighborhood and with the emerging power brokers.

 

Once Xi came on stage, first thing he did was he alienated all the neighbors (some of them future power brokers) and he took China in a different direction that no one expected. How Xi came to power is a fascinating story ..its more akin to a gangster muscling his way through rather than a strategic visionary being selected because he will Make China Great Again. He has taken a "go it alone" strategy thats nationalistic thinking he can develop all this critical technology all by himself and could care less about alienating neighbors and future power brokers. He also put USA in his cross hairs before they were ready. He scared foreign capital needlessly. This is an ideologue who is neither a true visionary or grounded in reality.

[cubsfan]

5 hours ago, Luca said:

Why would it be a problem for China to build up their army and not for the US? 

Why does the US have the global single right to have all those bases and rockets stationed everywhere and other countries cant have it? 

 
Simple: China is an expansionary power, the USA is not.

 

 

[UK]

This is not a bad take on the situation: 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-08-31/china-xi-jinping-should-talk-less-politics-and-more-economics

 

Xi’s calm in the face of China’s worst economic situation in decades may have disappointed investors, but he has good political reason not to prioritize a recovery at the moment. Like all strongmen who guard their power with utmost vigilance, Xi likely knows that a pivot to the economy means delegating a lot of authority to technocrats. That’s because most specific policies to address China’s current woes are highly complex and technical. Decentralization of power is the precondition of reviving economic dynamism.

The empowerment of senior officials in charge of the economy could dilute Xi’s own influence — even though they are his acolytes. He probably remembers the experience of Mao Zedong following the Great Leap Forward famine from 1959 to 1961. After this disaster destroyed Mao’s credibility, the dictator had to step aside, ceding economic policymaking to pragmatists. But soon Mao began to regret the decision because the subsequent recovery boosted the power of the pragmatists at his expense. He had to launch the Cultural Revolution in 1966 to regain political dominance.

[Luke]

17 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Benevolent rulers have become malevolent rulers fairly quick. History is not on your side with this one.

 

The same arguments have been used to justify monarchies etc. Democracy's are not perfect, but there is no alternative, imo.

China is an outlier that made it work wonderfully, so this made me and still makes me think quite much

[Luke]

17 hours ago, tnp20 said:

 

West won the war against USSR. When faced with a more strategic challenge, a Western led order will rise to the occasion and beat China.

The USSR was highly inefficient and administration corrupt and useless, Xi/CCP did and still tries to clean a lot of this up which is good IMO. We shall not forget the degree of corruption in the EU/Brussels or in the US. It's a problem also in western democracies.

17 hours ago, tnp20 said:

 

Why ?

 

Focus on the big items:-

 

(i) Top 3 economies in the world will be USA, China, India over the next 30 years. You can bet India will not be in China orbit ever. USA+India alone will be enough to outdo China. India has demographic benefits, the STEM majors, and excellent schools in IIT (modelled on MIT) and IIM (modelled on Harvard).

I don't see how they will "outdo" China, what do you mean by that? India has 20% of their population unable to read, a much poorer country but arguably with more growth potential. They can all do well, China has very high university rankings in tons of subjects etc. 

17 hours ago, tnp20 said:

 

(ii) I agree that USA STEM is abysmal. But, its top Universities are excellent and full of STEM students from India, China and Russia....many patents are by these very some folks at the forefront of research. Even if Chinese had good schools, I doubt many foreign students want to go to china becuase of both language barrier and lack of freedoms imposed by CCP (which were evidently in display during COVID with their draconian measures). The CHinese students that come to the USA, by and large stay here.

Yep, that's true, they were always good at attracting talent. 

17 hours ago, tnp20 said:

 

(iii) China faces not just the USA, but USA and allied countries like Japan, Germany, Korea, France, UK, Switzerland are current technology and biotech powerhouses, each has strengths in different areas but united as a group is more powerful than CHina. India likely will be an emerging one in about 20 years.

And still they are very much dependent and unable to decouple from China. Mutual destruction if they go against china. 

17 hours ago, tnp20 said:

 

The whole MRNA vaccine war was interesting. China did not accept the western MRNA vaccines despite being superior and beneficial. They preferred to prod along to develop in-house. MRNA was technology from Germany, USA and France...so it reiterates the point that alliance combined will always be more powerful than China lone. Xi's vaccine nationalism was parmount stupidity, especially when he could have shortened the needless lockdowns.

Yeah, China will continue to make mistakes but they will and can readjust. Don't forget the countless mistakes that also happened in the EU, the corruption with Pfizer and prices paid for the vaccines etc 

[james22]

2 hours ago, Luca said:

China is an outlier that made it work wonderfully, so this made me and still makes me think quite much

 

2,500 years (Western Ascendency) > 40 years (China's Economic Miracle)

[Luke]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

 

2,500 years (Western Ascendency) > 40 years (China's Economic Miracle)

Excuse me, China has been at the forefront of civilization for thousands of years before they missed the industrial revolution which they amazingly climbed back from, shooting through the roof now.

 

 

 

Edited September 1, 2023 by Luca

[no_free_lunch]

3 hours ago, james22 said:

 

2,500 years (Western Ascendency) > 40 years (China's Economic Miracle)

Even the economic miracle was just China copying the west.  

 

I am way out of my element here but I don't buy the China story.  It's just copying and stealing IP.  Sure that could change but like investments I bet on the past continuing.

 

I do think China will give us one hell of a run for it but that's good. Hopefully will motivate the west to clean their house up. 

 

All bets are off if a deep alliance between India and China develops. I think it's superficial but who knows.

[james22]

Over lunch I took care not to steer the conversation in any particular direction and instead let it take its own course. The feelings and impressions I heard from people whom I had never known to be particularly political were grim with discouragement.

 

For their safety, I must withhold their names, but they quickly offered up the impression that their country had recently been closing in on itself, and the resulting sensation, one said, was like suffocation. One of them told me that I had lived in China during its heyday, a feeling I immediately understood but had never formulated myself.

 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/08/30/china-post-covid-19-tourism-foreigners-visitors-economy-society/

 

 

[tnp20]

6 hours ago, Luca said:

India has 20% of their population unable to read, a much poorer country but arguably with more growth potential.

 

This is an old stat thats is often bandied about. Not only can most people read and write but many of those 20% counted as unable to read will speak broken English to you. They all watch western movies.  On the other end of the scale the shear number of STEM graduates in India each year are huge. There are 23 IITs (MIT equivalent) where the entrance exams is equivalent or harder than MIT (known as JEE). The reason is just shear size of the population and even at lower percentage number compared to the west, there are enough super smart folks to go to tech development in India but is more often the case go abroad for more money. 

 

USA + India will be powerful alliance as a counter force to China. If you watch the news flows, they are both playing nicely with each other and expanding cooperation and relationships. It has incredible bi-partisan support in both houses of congress and this trajectory is likely to continue.

 

My wife is quarter Chinese and rest Vietnamese. I love the Chinese people, they are very hard working people. Singapore and Vancouver are examples of how Indians, Chinese and Asians in general can work together to build something more unique and powerful. But Xi is a big obstacle and the trust he has destroyed with the neighbors gave the USA a huge strategic opening. Long term I am a globalist, and I hope there are less of these regional power plays and more about improving quality of human lives and improve scientific knowledge and understanding globally.

 

I hope Xi has a short life and China can go back to their previous trajectory. Whilst they may not adopt a complete Western model, they may adopt lot of things that bridge the gap and perhaps we can learn something from them too and adapt rather than throwing everything about their way of life. India and China were powerful nations some 700+ years ago and so they will become import poles in the globe with the US/West in the times to come.

 

 

Edited September 1, 2023 by tnp20

[Vish_ram]

If one day China transitions to Democracy, it'll be messy & disruptive to world trade. India has got this wonderful opportunity to capitalize on Xi's paranoia. 

 

Now it is finally India's turn to ride the prosperity wagon. 

[james22]

2 hours ago, Luca said:

Excuse me, China has been at the forefront of civilization for thousands of years before they missed the industrial revolution which they amazingly climbed back from, shooting through the roof now.

 

 

 

 

Westerners have projected power disproportionate to their numbers since ancient Greece.

 

https://www.amazon.com/Carnage-Culture-Landmark-Battles-Western/dp/0385720386/

[tnp20]

4 hours ago, james22 said:

2,500 years (Western Ascendency) > 40 years (China's Economic Miracle)

 

If you were around 500 years ago..this statement would be..

 

2500 years of Asian ascendency > 40 years of Western European miracle.

 

Two points...

 

(i) Most recent victors write history and destroy/suppress the losers history

 

(ii) Center of power Pendulum swings over centuries ...

[Parsad]

56 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Even the economic miracle was just China copying the west.  

 

I am way out of my element here but I don't buy the China story.  It's just copying and stealing IP.  Sure that could change but like investments I bet on the past continuing.

 

I do think China will give us one hell of a run for it but that's good. Hopefully will motivate the west to clean their house up. 

 

All bets are off if a deep alliance between India and China develops. I think it's superficial but who knows.

 

If China doesn't respect property rights or intellectual property, how does India ever trust them?  Not possible.  India is a burgeoning empire of intellectual property...they aren't going to give it away for free.

 

Partnership with China...sure.  Deep alliance...I think you are right...not going to happen. 

 

India really wants access to the BRICS through any China alliance...but their bread and butter will come from the West and Europe.  They know that.  Cheers!

 

 

[Parsad]

30 minutes ago, tnp20 said:

 

This is an old stat thats is often bandied about. Not only can most people read and write but many of those 20% counted as unable to read will speak broken English to you. They all watch western movies.  On the other end of the scale the shear number of STEM graduates in India each year are huge. There are 23 IITs (MIT equivalent) where the entrance exams is equivalent or harder than MIT (known as JEE). The reason is just shear size of the population and even at lower percentage number compared to the west, there are enough super smart folks to go to tech development in India but is more often the case go abroad for more money. 

 

USA + India will be powerful alliance as a counter force to China. If you watch the news flows, they are both playing nicely with each other and expanding cooperation and relationships. It has incredible bi-partisan support in both houses of congress and this trajectory is likely to continue.

 

My wife is quarter Chinese and rest Vietnamese. I love the Chinese people, they are very hard working people. Singapore and Vancouver are examples of how Indians, Chinese and Asians in general can work together to build something more unique and powerful. But Xi is a big obstacle and the trust he has destroyed with the neighbors gave the USA a huge strategic opening. Long term I am a globalist, and I hope there are less of these regional power plays and more about improving quality of human lives and improve scientific knowledge and understanding globally.

 

I hope Xi has a short life and China can go back to their previous trajectory. Whilst they may not adopt a complete Western model, they may adopt lot of things that bridge the gap and perhaps we can learn something from them too and adapt rather than throwing everything about their way of life. India and China were powerful nations some 700+ years ago and so they will become import poles in the globe with the US/West in the times to come.

 

 

 

+1!  100%.  Cheers!

[Spekulatius]

32 minutes ago, tnp20 said:

 

This is an old stat thats is often bandied about. Not only can most people read and write but many of those 20% counted as unable to read will speak broken English to you. They all watch western movies.  On the other end of the scale the shear number of STEM graduates in India each year are huge. There are 23 IITs (MIT equivalent) where the entrance exams is equivalent or harder than MIT (known as JEE). The reason is just shear size of the population and even at lower percentage number compared to the west, there are enough super smart folks to go to tech development in India but is more often the case go abroad for more money. 

 

USA + India will be powerful alliance as a counter force to China. If you watch the news flows, they are both playing nicely with each other and expanding cooperation and relationships. It has incredible bi-partisan support in both houses of congress and this trajectory is likely to continue.

 

My wife is quarter Chinese and rest Vietnamese. I love the Chinese people, they are very hard working people. Singapore and Vancouver are examples of how Indians, Chinese and Asians in general can work together to build something more unique and powerful. But Xi is a big obstacle and the trust he has destroyed with the neighbors gave the USA a huge strategic opening. Long term I am a globalist, and I hope there are less of these regional power plays and more about improving quality of human lives and improve scientific knowledge and understanding globally.

 

I hope Xi has a short life and China can go back to their previous trajectory. Whilst they may not adopt a complete Western model, they may adopt lot of things that bridge the gap and perhaps we can learn something from them too and adapt rather than throwing everything about their way of life. India and China were powerful nations some 700+ years ago and so they will become import poles in the globe with the US/West in the times to come.

 

 

My wife is ethnically Chinese too, but grew up in Thailand. We know a lot of 1st and 2nd generation Chinese emigrants and they are deeply distrustful of what happens in China. Those living in HK or Macau want out or have already a foreign passport ready to go if needed.

This was not the case 15 years ago.