Russia-Ukrainian War

[Pelagic]

Thanks @Xerxes interesting article. There was video circulating today of the mobile launch trailer that Tu-141s are towed around on. I hadn't realized they were launched like that, much like the Iranian Shahed-131s in that regard, it's very difficult to target the launcher.

[Spekulatius]

50 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

Thanks @Xerxes interesting article. There was video circulating today of the mobile launch trailer that Tu-141s are towed around on. I hadn't realized they were launched like that, much like the Iranian Shahed-131s in that regard, it's very difficult to target the launcher.

It's also interesting that these cruise missile systems didn't get intercepted by Russia and have been able to penetrate deep into Russian air space. One of the targeted airbases was close to Moscow. Ukraine may be able to fly one of these ones right into the Kremlin.

[Xerxes]

33 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

It's also interesting that these cruise missile systems didn't get intercepted by Russia and have been able to penetrate deep into Russian air space. One of the targeted airbases was close to Moscow. Ukraine may be able to fly one of these ones right into the Kremlin.

Russia’ massive multi-time zone landmass which was competitive advantage during Swedish, French and Germanic invasions is a liability in this current context of an enemy not interested to mount an invasion but to wage asymmetric warfare. 

 

[lnofeisone]

On 1/17/2023 at 11:22 AM, Dinar said:

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-728770

 

 

Apparently Russia is recruiting mercenaries in Serbia

Just wait until Afghans find their way to Ukraine to fight on Russia's side. It will be come full circle and only took 40 years or so.

[no_free_lunch]

Well some Afghanis are helping Ukraine.  The CEO of the company behind the switchblade drone is an Afghan refugee.

 

Quote

When he was a young teenager, Wahid Nawabi would go to the roof of his family’s home in Kabul and watch the Soviet helicopters flying in the distance.

..

In 1982, Nawabi and his family fled. Nawabi, then only 14, led his three younger sisters on a harrowing 48-day journey to escape the war-torn country to reunite with their parents in India.

 

Because of that experience, Nawabi said he feels a personal connection with the more than 5 million refugees who have fled Ukraine in the wake of this latest Russian invasion. Now as an American and as the chief executive of AeroVironment, a leading provider of military-grade fighter drones, Nawabi said he has a moral obligation to aid the Ukrainian defense effort.

 

Last month, the U.S. government sent 100 of AeroVironment’s Switchblade drones to the Ukrainians, part of a massive weapons package. Switchblades have been described as “kamikaze drones,” because after they lock on to their target, they fly in and explode. The Switchblade 600, which can fly for more than 40 minutes with a 25-mile range, is designed to take down tanks and other armored vehicles. The smaller Switchblade 300, which weighs less than six pounds and can be carried in a backpack, is meant for smaller targets.

 

Edited January 19, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[lnofeisone]

There is a large contingent of west-trained Afghan army that fled to Iran when taliban took over. They are generally pissed at the US. I can see russia tapping into that reservoir and Iran not objecting.

[Dinar]

53 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

There is a large contingent of west-trained Afghan army that fled to Iran when taliban took over. They are generally pissed at the US. I can see russia tapping into that reservoir and Iran not objecting.

Can they actually fight?  Did not put up much of a fight against the Taliban

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, lnofeisone said:

There is a large contingent of west-trained Afghan army that fled to Iran when taliban took over. They are generally pissed at the US. I can see russia tapping into that reservoir and Iran not objecting.

 

10 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Can they actually fight?  Did not put up much of a fight against the Taliban

 

The Taliban was quick to find and execute many individuals who were trained at relatively high levels by US SOF. The ones that remain are likely in hiding or trying to get out of the country to the US. Basic Afghan infantry trained by US forces are very limited in skill and knowledge. Generally this is due to a trust issue. I would not consider them a meaningful force. Most basic infantry will fight for whoever gives them the best paycheck. 

 

A friend of mine who is a Green Beret and knows individuals who worked on Operation Pineapple Express said they are still working on getting out counterparts that they worked with. I would not count on many of these individuals fighting for Russia. In fact, from what he told me, many of the highly trained Afghan SOF individuals that evaded Taliban capture have been doing exactly what US SOF units do....train individuals for guerilla warfare. 

 

People underestimate the change in the Afghan people. One, many people had a small taste of what freedom can be like. Two, there are millions of individuals that are educated now and no longer living in the dark. Three, people still overestimate how much control the Taliban has. Most people still don't know that the Taliban pre-staged pictures, scenes, etc. in key locations that they knew the press would be to make the world think they completely took over in a matter of days. Worked like a charm and Western Press Outlets ate it up. From what I've been told, there is still a lot of resistance brewing in that country. 

 

Also just want to point out how incompetent the US Govt was in all of this. Kamala Harris called leaders from Operation Pineapple Express asking them to get out individuals she deemed important. Operation Pineapple is a self funded organization primarily made up of former SOF members who still have contacts in country. You have the VP of the United States, who has access to Delta Force asking someone else to do her dirty work without providing any funding from the US Government. That is laughably sad. 

 

_______________

 

So in short, I highly doubt that basic infantry with minimal training from US troops and that has an allegiance more determined by their own personal survival will bring any significant capacity to Russian forces. Not meaningless, but turn the tide capable? I doubt it. 

[Dinar]

The mercenaries you need to fear are from North Korea.  If, and that's a big if, North Korea has 500K well trained troops, then they can and most likely will be leased to Russia for a king's ransom.  

[Pelagic]

23 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

It's also interesting that these cruise missile systems didn't get intercepted by Russia and have been able to penetrate deep into Russian air space. One of the targeted airbases was close to Moscow. Ukraine may be able to fly one of these ones right into the Kremlin.

I guess whoever's in charge of Russian air defense has similar thoughts. If it works it works I guess, although you'd think to defend Moscow Russia has better options... Personally I think there might be an unspoken agreement between Ukraine and western Allies to only target clear military targets inside Russia. Russia's oil infrastructure would certainly make for a compelling target, and Ukraine has targeted some closer to the front with their "Alibaba drones". 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Pelagic said:

I guess whoever's in charge of Russian air defense has similar thoughts. If it works it works I guess, although you'd think to defend Moscow Russia has better options... Personally I think there might be an unspoken agreement between Ukraine and western Allies to only target clear military targets inside Russia. Russia's oil infrastructure would certainly make for a compelling target, and Ukraine has targeted some closer to the front with their "Alibaba drones". 

 

 

Yes, i think Ukraine targeting Moscow is unlikely. In addition, the Kremlin is a world heritage site (just learned that when i looked it up), so that would be another argument against this particular target. 

 

I could see something along the lines happening just to force Russia to disperse resources. This would be similar thinking than the first British bombing raid on Berlin in 1941 that had only symbolic value, but led the Nazis to disperse large resources to protect German cities.

 

Edited January 19, 2023 by Spekulatius

[UK]

Some countries are already pre anouncing their new support for Ukraine, seems after tomorrows meeting they will receive a lot of new stuff.

Edited January 19, 2023 by UK

[Xerxes]

Romulan warbird de-cloaking off the coast of Hawaii

 

https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2023/01/19/coast-guard-russian-ship-off-hawaii-liebermann-cnntm-vpx.cnn

[shhughes1116]

12 hours ago, Dinar said:

The mercenaries you need to fear are from North Korea.  If, and that's a big if, North Korea has 500K well trained troops, then they can and most likely will be leased to Russia for a king's ransom.  

North Korea does not have 500k well-trained troops.  Not even close.  

[shhughes1116]

On 1/18/2023 at 11:31 AM, Spekulatius said:

It's also interesting that these cruise missile systems didn't get intercepted by Russia and have been able to penetrate deep into Russian air space. One of the targeted airbases was close to Moscow. Ukraine may be able to fly one of these ones right into the Kremlin.

 
set aside radars and detection range for a moment.  You essentially have four types of air defense.

1. close-in shorad.  Something like the Gephard or dudes with an HMG on a truck. 

2.  Shorad.  Something like the NASAMS or Hawk or Aspide.  Range is maybe 15-20 miles.

3. medium range air defense.  Something like the patriot with a range of 15-100 miles.

4.  Long range / theater air defense.  Something like the THADD, with a range of maybe 150 miles.  
 

the Russians use different equipment but the concept is essentially the same.

 

With that in mind, think about the large landmass of Russia.  In order to create an impenetrable air defense curtain, you’d need a huge number of medium range and long-range air defense systems.  Russia doesn’t have this.  Neither does the West or China.  This equipment is expensive, hard to maintain, and hard to operate.  So you make a best guess about possible targets and attack vectors and place your equipment accordingly.  
 

Ukraine’s attacks deep in Russia are an important strategic move.  It is causing Russia to devote air defense assets towards the protection of targets in Russia.  This leaves Russian troops in Ukraine more exposed to drone attacks, missile attacks, and attacks by rotary and fixed wing aircraft. 
 

same concept was used by the British in 1941.  Bombing Germany caused a massive reallocation of resources (planes, AA, and personnel) from the front-lines to the inner parts of Germany.  In the long-run, this exposed/weakened German troops at the front.
 

 

 

[shhughes1116]

9 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Yes, i think Ukraine targeting Moscow is unlikely. In addition, the Kremlin is a world heritage site (just learned that when i looked it up), so that would be another argument against this particular target. 

 

I could see something along the lines happening just to force Russia to disperse resources. This would be similar thinking than the first British bombing raid on Berlin in 1941 that had only symbolic value, but led the Nazis to disperse large resources to protect German cities.

 

You hit the nail on the head.  The deep drone attacks force Russia to re-deploy scarce air defense assets away from Ukraine, or acknowledge to their people that they are vulnerable to attack.  

[Xerxes]

The WW2 analogies are based on a snapshot point in time.

 

If you add a time dimension to the analogies, a symblic Doolittle raid on Tokyo in April 1942 snowballed into Lemay firebombing of Tokyo in May 1945, some three years later !

[no_free_lunch]

Given the discussion is on ww2, let's consider the rapid increase to weapons production during that period.   In the US, aircraft production went up close to 30 fold from 1940 to 1944.  This while increasingly the quality and complexity of the planes at the same time.  For instance, heavy bomber production actually went up 500 fold.   

 

I don't see why a similar production curve (possibly much larger) cannot happen for equipment such as autonomous drones.  In prior conflicts, what you usually see is this refinement and mass production of weapons that already existed at the start of the conflict.  I think this will happen here as well and drones seem like an obvious candidate.  

 

This type of tech could change the importance of troop levels or at least act as a multiplier. 

 

US combat aircraft production WW2

 

1940 plane production: 3,611

1942 plane production: 46,907

1944 plane production: 96,270

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_aircraft_production_during_World_War_II

Edited January 21, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[cubsfan]

^^^ Excellent post. And likely the reason Ukraine has such a strong chance against Russia. Much as I hate to see USA dedicate $100B a year to this war, then along with Europe adding billions for weapons - tough to see how Russia can not get buried, like Reagan buried them in the 80's.  Russia has manpower, but with a defense budget of $80B - they are in real trouble.

 

The wild card, of course, is nuclear weapons, which, in the hands of Putin - who the hell knows.

 

And my other fear - is just how much of that arms aid gets stolen by the Ukrainian corruption.

[Dinar]

18 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ Excellent post. And likely the reason Ukraine has such a strong chance against Russia. Much as I hate to see USA dedicate $100B a year to this war, then along with Europe adding billions for weapons - tough to see how Russia can not get buried, like Reagan buried them in the 80's.  Russia has manpower, but with a defense budget of $80B - they are in real trouble.

 

The wild card, of course, is nuclear weapons, which, in the hands of Putin - who the hell knows.

 

And my other fear - is just how much of that arms aid gets stolen by the Ukrainian corruption.

Reagan did not bury the USSR in 1980s.  The Afghan war and the collapse in petroleum prices did the trick.  

[cubsfan]

^^ Well, ok - how about excess spending on defense did the trick? 

 

If your enemies can outspend you by orders of magnitude - it's just a matter of time until you're done. You can't be running a sustained campaign when you're solely dependent on a commodity price like oil.

[no_free_lunch]

15 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ Excellent post. And likely the reason Ukraine has such a strong chance against Russia. Much as I hate to see USA dedicate $100B a year to this war, then along with Europe adding billions for weapons - tough to see how Russia can not get buried, like Reagan buried them in the 80's.  Russia has manpower, but with a defense budget of $80B - they are in real trouble.

 

The wild card, of course, is nuclear weapons, which, in the hands of Putin - who the hell knows.

 

And my other fear - is just how much of that arms aid gets stolen by the Ukrainian corruption.

 

The best way to keep track of the arms is to send more advisers to Ukraine.

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^ Well, ok - how about excess spending on defense did the trick? 

 

If your enemies can outspend you by orders of magnitude - it's just a matter of time until you're done. You can't be running a sustained campaign when you're solely dependent on a commodity price like oil.

No.  Look at US or USSR in Afghanistan or US in Vietnam, or China in Vietnam.  Or go back to in time and look at Mongols, Arabs in 7th century AD, Ottoman Turks, and the list goes on.  

 

[no_free_lunch]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

No.  Look at US or USSR in Afghanistan or US in Vietnam, or China in Vietnam.  Or go back to in time and look at Mongols, Arabs in 7th century AD, Ottoman Turks, and the list goes on.  

 

 

Those first 3 examples, Ukraine is the equivalent of Afghanistan / Vietnam.  The defender with nothing left to lose.  In those cases to actually achieve superiority of production (if it happens), would further the gap.  Also note that those were all guerilla wars, this is a conventional war.

 

 What we learned from ww2 is that when armies start to adapt similar tactics it does come down to some multiple of quality x quantity.

 

If this was the Mongolian invasion then it would for sure be over already.  We have already seen that these 2 armies are at least roughly comparable.

[Xerxes]

There is an interesting bit on why M1 are not suitable for Ukraine and why Leopold II are the best bet. 
 

M1 is indeed running on a gas turbine engine. Powered by Honeywell !! 

 

https://aerospace.honeywell.com/us/en/products-and-services/product/hardware-and-systems/engines/agt-1500

 

A shame though as those armoured beasts were design to operate in the battlefield of Eastern Europe fighting off the Warsaw Pact, and we are not going to get see that.