Russia-Ukrainian War

[John Hjorth]

7 minutes ago, Charlie said:

There is practically zero chance of big suprise in the german election.

 

The election polls are the same for months:

 

https://dawum.de/Bundestag/

 

The winner CDU/CSU is middle/right. No other political party wants something to do with the AFD. Voters really listen to what politicians say.

 

Thank you for sharing, Charlie [ @Charlie ],

 

Great overview site. Yes, and as if there isen't enough else to be concerned about these days in Europe.

[Spekulatius]

2 minutes ago, Charlie said:

There is practically zero chance of big suprise in the german election.

 

The election polls are the same for months:

 

https://dawum.de/Bundestag/

 

The winner CDU/CSU is middle/right. No other political party wants something to do 

with the AFD. Voters really listen to what politicians say.

Also, the CDU has adopted some AFD positions on emigration and also likely a more independent path from the USA (due to recent events). If Merz gets a strong enough mandate, then he should be able to do something. If not, then Germany is going to remain a rudderless ship just like under the led coalition.

 

Before the German election is settled, I don’t think anything will really happen.

 

There is a lot of leverage the Europeans have and means to do something. For example the majority of the Russian assets that have been frozen are within the EU (Belgium, Euroclear) and the UK. Thats probably about $200B that the EU could turn against Russia to increase defense, aide Ukraine. it does require a legal framework but where there is will there is a way.

 

Its the will that has been lacking not the means to do something.

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

 

The UK didn't have an election for 10 years as a result of World War II, elections were put off until after the war because the war was about survival.  If we had lost that war our democracy might have died with it.

I heard that 10 years comment on TV as well. Is that really true ?

 

Churchill fell from power before close of the second war. In fact with FDR passing, the only constant in Allied leadership was Stalin in 1945. 

 

And Churchill was elected after the war began. He was the First Lord of Admiralty in Neville Chamberlain cabinet in 1939. So not sure folks say 10 years. 
 

On Zelenskyy, I think whether they hold election or not that is their internal affairs. Our aide (or lack thereof) should not be contingent on that and it is not. This is just noise out of White House. 
 

We didn’t have problems supplying Iraq with chemical weapons, satellite intelligence, all kinds of aids in the 1980s. Iraq was ruled by totalitarian regime. 
 

Would it help Ukraine, if Zelensky takes the throne and declares himself king of All Ukrainians. US has no issue sending aid to Saudi Arabia. Another totalitarian regime that we don’t think of it in that sense because it happens to be a monarchy. 
 

 

[Sweet]

1 minute ago, Xerxes said:

I heard that 10 years comment on TV as well. Is that really true ?

 

Churchill fell from power before close of the second war. In fact with FDR passing, the only constant in Allied leadership was Stalin in 1945. 

 

And Churchill was elected after the war began. He was the First Lord of Admiralty in Neville Chamberlain cabinet in 1939. So not sure folks say 10 years. 
 

On Zelenskyy, I think whether they hold election or not that is their internal affairs. Our aide (or lack thereof) should not be contingent on that and it is not. This is just noise out of White House. 
 

We didn’t have problems supplying Iraq with chemical weapons, satellite intelligence, all kinds of aids in the 1980s. Iraq was ruled by totalitarian regime. 
 

Would it help Ukraine, if Zelensky takes the throne and declares himself king of All Ukrainians. US has no issue sending aid to Saudi Arabia. Another totalitarian regime that we don’t think of it in that sense because it happens to be a monarchy. 
 

 

 

Your response is based on a misreading of my comment Xerxes, my comment said, "The UK didn't have an election for 10 years" - not Churchill.

 

Of course, Churchill was the PM during the time an election would otherwise have been held, normally every 5 years in the UK.

 

The dictator comment about Ukraine and Zelensky could easily have been applied to the UK and Churchill in the early 1940s.

 

So yeh, Winston Churchill, the dictator.

 

 

[Xerxes]

Thanks. That was detail I was missing. 
in my mind there was a change in government in 1940 and again in 1945.
 

The subtlety of general election vs internal party change in leadership didn’t register with me. 

[Sweet]

7 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Thanks. That was detail I was missing. 
in my mind there was a change in government in 1940 and again in 1945.
 

The subtlety of general election vs internal party change in leadership didn’t register with me. 

I think a coalition government formed in 1940 in response to the war, I don’t think there was even a leader of the opposition.  These norms tend to go out the window in wartime.

[cubsfan]

7 hours ago, Charlie said:

If Trump can end the war and bring lasting peace, that would be a huge victory for him.

 

That is one of the biggest advantages of Trump, that he can better communicate with Putin.

 

Too common sense for many to understand.

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

Too common sense for many to understand.

 

I agree with @Gamecock-YT here, above.

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

It's a behavioral problem - of yours - while discussing in this topic. Have you even thought about how you're actual phrasing of the content of your posts lately appear condecensing and patronizing, all while you - constantly, on and on - ignore and disregard the points brought up several times, by several CofB&F members, including me, about the trustworthyness of Putin, ref. the concept of 'lasting peace'.

 

In short, you're by many European CofB&F members and others considered naive, short term, or both.

 

 

[Ulti]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraine-must-guarantee-its-own-security
 

another opinion that has come up with the same conclusion 

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, John Hjorth said:

 

I agree with @Gamecock-YT here, above.

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

It's a behavioral problem - of yours - while discussing in this topic. Have you even thought about how you're actual phrasing of the content of your posts lately appear condecensing and patronizing, all while you - constantly, on and on - ignore and disregard the points brought up several times, by several CofB&F members, including me, about the trustworthyness of Putin, ref. the concept of 'lasting peace'.

 

In short, you're by many European CofB&F members and others considered naive, short term, or both.

 

 

 

John - I could care less what you think.  I have never trusted Putin or praised him. But feel free to show me where I have said that - please do it.  Don't lecture me on a "lasting peace" when you refuse to address the issue of "How this war will get won?"

 

You refuse to address the issue of - how many more need to die? and Whose sons and daughters will die in combat?  Will it be the Danish, English, French, American's lives sacrificed in the meat grinder?

 

Or will it be a whole generation of Ukrainians that are left, as Ukraine is clearly running out of men?

 

You refuse to address this at all - even after I gave you Mark Rutte and his opinion about Europe stepping up and taking the lead on the protection against a mortal enemy sitting on Europe's borders.

[Castanza]

What exactly is lasting peace? A generation or two if you’re lucky? Peace is a myth imo. 
 

Which is worse? Unsatisfactory terms for Ukraine but an end to the bloodshed in the near term? Or continued bloodshed with support increased allied support and possible escalation? 
 

A lot of ways this could go with either path imo. Ukraine should definitely be at the table though. My opinions on how this all started are known, but pulling the rug on support after years is not wise imo. Wisdom is found in the council of many….

[cubsfan]

5 minutes ago, Castanza said:

What exactly is lasting peace? A generation or two if you’re lucky? Peace is a myth imo. 
 

Which is worse? Unsatisfactory terms for Ukraine but an end to the bloodshed in the near term? Or continued bloodshed with support increased allied support and possible escalation? 
 

A lot of ways this could go with either path imo. Ukraine should definitely be at the table though. My opinions on how this all started are known, but pulling the rug on support after years is not wise imo. Wisdom is found in the council of many….

 

Ukraine needs to agree to any satisfactory proposal. They are not dealing from a position of strength unless the Europeans wish to take this war over. Ukraine is clearly losing the war.

 

The Europeans can easily scuttle any deal they think might happen - and they should if they feel that strongly. 

 

The harsh reality is that Ukraine is running out of men - no one wants to address this. No one.

 

 

[John Hjorth]

19 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

John - I could care less what you think.  I have never trusted Putin or praised him. But feel free to show me where I have said that - please do it.  Don't lecture me on a "lasting peace" when you refuse to address the issue of "How this war will get won?"

 

You refuse to address the issue of - how many more need to die? and Whose sons and daughters will die in combat?  Will it be the Danish, English, French, American's lives sacrificed in the meat grinder?

 

Or will it be a whole generation of Ukrainians that are left, as Ukraine is clearly running out of men?

 

You refuse to address this at all - even after I gave you Mark Rutte and his opinion about Europe stepping up and taking the lead on the protection against a mortal enemy sitting on Europe's borders.

 

Thank you, Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

Now we're getting somewhere, so I can understand you.

 

In fact, I personally think we now disagree much less than what was perhaps apperant before your last post above.

 

This is most of all an European issue, and the European countries need to step up to it - absolutely immedially.

 

Your POTUS is out of line and going rogue here by now. I'll elaborate later.

[cubsfan]

@John Hjorth Good to hear.

[JoJo1]

23 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

 

 

 

You guys are fucking retards, believing everything Trump spews in his vitriolic posts!  

 

https://www.csis.org/analysis/where-missing-100-billion-us-aid-ukraine

 

He wants Zelensky gone now because Zelensky wouldn't provide shit on the Bidens. 

 

The fact that you guys are even mildly enthused and believe that Putin is anything but a fucking maniac is beyond me!  I never thought I would see this shit happen in the United States, but it is...anything can happen these days and fiction has become fact!  

 

Cheers!

 

 

Would you read company analysis from such professionals?

[John Hjorth]

6 minutes ago, JoJo1 said:

Would you read company analysis from such professionals?

 

@JoJo1,

 

You obviously have no idea of what you are asking about here, lol!

[Libs]

https://brusselssignal.eu/2025/02/europe-checkmate/

 

A sobering assessment of Europe's position. Would be interested in others' opinions on this article. Too dour?

[JoJo1]

15 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@JoJo1,

 

You obviously have no idea of what you are asking about here, lol!

for sure?

[cubsfan]

15 minutes ago, Libs said:

https://brusselssignal.eu/2025/02/europe-checkmate/

 

A sobering assessment of Europe's position. Would be interested in others' opinions on this article. Too dour?

 

Great article discussing the issues few wish to face: 

 

Given Europe's extensive GDP, resources and manpower - why are they not preparing for the future after 3 years of seeing the worst threat to the continent since 1945?

[Castanza]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916

 

Last 3 have been very solid. 

[Sweet]

14 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Great article discussing the issues few wish to face: 

 

Given Europe's extensive GDP, resources and manpower - why are they not preparing for the future after 3 years of seeing the worst threat to the continent since 1945?

Cubs, with respect, MANY have been saying exactly that for years.  It’s not a ‘few’ who have called this out.  

Why the leaders of European nations have not taken decisive action is the question that ‘few’ have the answers to.

 

I was once told by a guy who worked for intelligence, that Russians have been funding and infiltrating the green movement in Europe.  Net zero and deindustrialisation weakens Europe and relatively strengthens Russia.  Who knows for sure though.

[John Hjorth]

1 minute ago, JoJo1 said:

for sure?

 

 

@JoJo1,

 

Please do your own individual check up on posts from active participants in the discussion in this topic and compare it with such members' contributions in topics in the CofB&F Investment Ideas forum. 

 

If you need some practical guidance about how to do, please feel free to send me a private message about it.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

The variant perceptions presented here in this topic aren't really an expression of some CofB&F members in one certain 'opinion camp' lacking knowledge, competencies, nor qualifications etc.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

-And btw, here, a belated welcome to you! 

[Xerxes]

6 hours ago, Sweet said:

I think a coalition government formed in 1940 in response to the war, I don’t think there was even a leader of the opposition.  These norms tend to go out the window in wartime.

Also the Gold-U.S.D.-pound peg was temporarily broken off during 1914-18, to allow the printing press to fund the war machine. 

You do what it takes 

[John Hjorth]

22 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

... Given Europe's extensive GDP, resources and manpower - why are they not preparing for the future after 3 years of seeing the worst threat to the continent since 1945?

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

You're simply right. It has been dumb, naive and also reckless, I would say since 2014 [Crimea].

 

But you have to follow and track the extreme and violent changes going on by now, some of them by WARP speed.

[JoJo1]

POTUS is an idiot. Putin will never, ever give a cent to Trump. Never.

And why? Trump gives him everything for a promise, an illusion of cooperation. in the Arctic, pah.

 

If the Germans understand that instead of 11000 cars a day they can also build 100 tanks, 10 million drones, optics, laser and horny, small robots, a day; finally organize 20 satellite launches every week again ... and if the Germans then talk intensively with their Jewish friends about military technology, laser, quantum optics, I see potential there.

 

It's time too. who needs a tesla if can having a bmw.

Petersburg and Moskau, end of russia