Russia-Ukrainian War

[Viking]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

He sure does......from talking to friends/family in Europe.....they'll do this winter getting squeezed on energy bills in support of Ukraine......but not a second.........I expect once surpluses turn to deficits in the US....and the deficit starts to matter again & with the Republican's in control of the house (investigating Hunter Biden & finding out all the corruption with him/Ukrainian) the narrative is gonna shift to why are we spending so much scarce money over there.

 

Ukraine would be wise to push as hard as they can now with Russians on the back foot and their friends in the West still full throated in their support.

Europe has severed its relationship with Russia on energy and pretty much everything else. Finland/Sweden are joining NATO. Eastern European nations (bordering Russia) understand Putin/Russia and understand they are next on the menu should Russia have any lasting success in Ukraine. So they will play an important role moving forward in keeping Europe focussed on the task at hand (getting Russia out of Ukraine and weakening Russia as much as possible).

 

Moving forward, Europe’s energy future will now rest more on decisions Europe makes and less on developments in Ukraine. European energy policy has been a disaster for decades. If Europe continues to do dumb things (like closing down nuclear)… well that is not on Ukraine. Driven by supply issues, the spike in oil prices happened well before the Ukraine invasion. Did the Russian invasion make a bad situation worse? Of course. But that is now spilt milk. 
 

The real story of Ukraine: The West is now at war with Russia and China. The authoritarian model, lead by China/Russia (Saudi Arabia?), versus the liberal democracy model, led by US/Europe/Japan/Canada/Australia/South Korea etc. China/Russia, when they signed their pact in Feb, made their aims clear for all to see. Weeks later Ukraine happened. We are not even a year in to something that is going to run for decades… China has staying power. But the West is slowly catching on. Our world has fundamentally changed. I am not sure where Saudi Arabia sits… but the very public decision to materially cut production right before US mid-terms was certainly interesting. 
 

There is no going back. Thats because the last 20 years was largely a fiction. It never really existed (except in peoples imaginations). The Disney version of communist China was brilliantly marketed by Chinese leaders and gobbled up by a naive West. Of course, the reality of communist China, is much, much different - and much worse. Just ask anyone trying desperately to get out of Hong Hong right now. Xi has revealed himself over the past year for all to see. China is diametrically opposed to the West (that communism vs capitalism thing… not hard to understand). The West got completely played by China the past 20 years. Smart bastards. 
 

But is looks to me like Xi/China might have miscalculated. Their partner, Russia, has completely messed up in Ukraine. And the final outcome is unclear. China still needs the West… this was recently highlighted by the chips act (good luck developing your economy without access to high end semiconductors). The game has just started - the initial moved have just been made. Settle in, it is likely going to take decades before a winner is declared. Your grandchildren will probably be the ones who decide the final outcome.

Edited November 13, 2022 by Viking

[Xerxes]

There is no need for the West to play the “victim card” vis a vis China. 
 

We chose that relationship because supporting Chinese economic development helped our multinational, creating jobs at home etc. lower cost etc. Economy trumped national interest. 

 

Same goes for Saudi Arabia, we arm them to the teeth, creating jobs locally for our defence contractors, knowing full well that only means a more angry Iran, which in turn turns it into a self fulfilling prophecy and a virtuous cycle, with its aggressive actions.  
 

Saudi defence budget of $45 billion vs Iran defence budget of $15 billion. That is great business to be in !!!

 

That said, I don’t expect my fellow westerners to understand these things. 

[Viking]

36 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

There is no need for the West to play the “victim card” vis a vis China. 
 

We chose that relationship because supporting Chinese economic development helped our multinational, creating jobs at home etc. lower cost etc. Economy trumped national interest. 

 

Same goes for Saudi Arabia, we arm them to the teeth, creating jobs locally for our defence contractors, knowing full well that only means a more angry Iran, which in turn turns it into a self fulfilling prophecy and a virtuous cycle, with its aggressive actions.  
 

Saudi defence budget of $45 billion vs Iran defence budget of $15 billion. That is great business to be in !!!

 

That said, I don’t expect my fellow westerners to understand these things. 

@Xerxes my post was not to suggest the West was a victim. One of the most important lessons i am trying to teach my kids is ‘actions / consequences’. Do dumb things… bad things often follow. I also tell them if their world is not going well to start by looking in the mirror. If change is needed that is the best place to start. i also tell them to be rational. And to be rational you have to be able to properly analyze the situation. 
 

What i love is China is no longer pretending. Same with Russia. Even a dummy can figure out what is going on. So the West is slowly figuring it out. Brave new world. 
—————

i have an enormous amount of respect for China, their history, what they have accomplished the past 40 years and what they are capable of. ‘China’s got game.’ Russia, on the other hand, i am not so sure. 

Edited November 13, 2022 by Viking

[Ulti]

26 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

We chose that relationship because supporting Chinese economic development helped our multinational, creating jobs at home etc. lower cost etc. Economy trumped national interest. 

That is certainly correct as well as the same for the coming down of the Berlin

Wall and collapse of the Soviet Union. ( watch Kleo on Netflix; its a great quirky show about this.)  There was (and maybe still is) a sort of naive view of we can make money and promote freedom too. I might be naive also; (and no I'm not a progressive or woke) but I'm for the people ( GO Iranian women; Ukranians etc.)

All these decisions you discuss are made by the elites and people in power of all

countries, not by the general public.

42 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

That said, I don’t expect my fellow westerners to understand these things. 

I DO get it and I'm sure like you,  love, with all our faults,  living in a flawed democratic society. I don't see the victim card with China being played;

I see a readjustment on an initial assessment from Deng to Xi. It's why ,though I have some conservative leanings, will never vote for Trump or any of his acolytes.

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, Viking said:

Europe has severed its relationship with Russia on energy and pretty much everything else. Finland/Sweden are joining NATO. Eastern European nations (bordering Russia) understand Putin/Russia and understand they are next on the menu should Russia have any lasting success in Ukraine. So they will play an important role moving forward in keeping Europe focussed on the task at hand (getting Russia out of Ukraine and weakening Russia as much as possible).

 

Moving forward, Europe’s energy future will now rest more on decisions Europe makes and less on developments in Ukraine. European energy policy has been a disaster for decades. If Europe continues to do dumb things (like closing down nuclear)… well that is not on Ukraine. Driven by supply issues, the spike in oil prices happened well before the Ukraine invasion. Did the Russian invasion make a bad situation worse? Of course. But that is now spilt milk. 
 

The real story of Ukraine: The West is now at war with Russia and China. The authoritarian model, lead by China/Russia (Saudi Arabia?), versus the liberal democracy model, led by US/Europe/Japan/Canada/Australia/South Korea etc. China/Russia, when they signed their pact in Feb, made their aims clear for all to see. Weeks later Ukraine happened. We are not even a year in to something that is going to run for decades… China has staying power. But the West is slowly catching on. Our world has fundamentally changed. I am not sure where Saudi Arabia sits… but the very public decision to materially cut production right before US mid-terms was certainly interesting. 
 

There is no going back. Thats because the last 20 years was largely a fiction. It never really existed (except in peoples imaginations). The Disney version of communist China was brilliantly marketed by Chinese leaders and gobbled up by a naive West. Of course, the reality of communist China, is much, much different - and much worse. Just ask anyone trying desperately to get out of Hong Hong right now. Xi has revealed himself over the past year for all to see. China is diametrically opposed to the West (that communism vs capitalism thing… not hard to understand). The West got completely played by China the past 20 years. Smart bastards. 
 

But is looks to me like Xi/China might have miscalculated. Their partner, Russia, has completely messed up in Ukraine. And the final outcome is unclear. China still needs the West… this was recently highlighted by the chips act (good luck developing your economy without access to high end semiconductors). The game has just started - the initial moved have just been made. Settle in, it is likely going to take decades before a winner is declared. Your grandchildren will probably be the ones who decide the final outcome.

I am not sure that I agree on a couple of points:

 

a) Why do you think China is an ally of Russia?  Perhaps Xi thought that this war was unlikely to strengthen Russia, and perhaps drastically weaken it, which is in China's interest.  What have they done to help Russia, besides buy oil/gas on the cheap, and now Russia has to sell gas to China at a huge discount to LNG prices

b) Why are you surprised by Saudi behavior.  If I call you a murder, will you do a favor for me?  Biden called Prince Salman a murder, and then expects the guy to bend over backwards to help him.  Really?

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Ulti said:

I'm not a progressive or woke) but I'm for the people ( GO Iranian women; Ukranians etc.)

All these decisions you discuss are made by the elites and people in power of all

countries, not by the general public.

 

Me and you both.

The men couldn't do it, so hopefully the women can .... lol

[Xerxes]

'Putin's Brain' Turns On Russian Leader With 'King of the Rains' Warning (msn.com)

 

Warning to Putin from Twyin Lannister, oh i mean Alexander Dugin

[Xerxes]

30 minutes ago, Dinar said:

b) Why are you surprised by Saudi behavior.  If I call you a murder, will you do a favor for me?  Biden called Prince Salman a murder, and then expects the guy to bend over backwards to help him.  Really?

 

My view is that would have happened regardless, the OPEC+ production cut was largely in reaction to Federal Reserve interest rate hike. if the latter was/will kill aggregate demand, than that takes away demand from barrels. So a cut was natural step.

 

 

[Ulti]

3 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

he OPEC+ production cut was largely in reaction to Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

maybe mainly due to this ?

[Spekulatius]

@Xerxes I had no idea about this Bandera follow before I heard about it in this board, it’s also interesting that he was in West Germany in 1959 when the KGB do his hit job on him. Not a big loss for mankind, I think.

[Viking]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

I am not sure that I agree on a couple of points:

 

a) Why do you think China is an ally of Russia?  Perhaps Xi thought that this war was unlikely to strengthen Russia, and perhaps drastically weaken it, which is in China's interest.  What have they done to help Russia, besides buy oil/gas on the cheap, and now Russia has to sell gas to China at a huge discount to LNG prices

b) Why are you surprised by Saudi behavior.  If I call you a murder, will you do a favor for me?  Biden called Prince Salman a murder, and then expects the guy to bend over backwards to help him.  Really?

a) Why do you think China is an ally of Russia?

1.) They both signed a very public agreement in Feb. These things happen every, what, 40 or 50 years? Big deal. And it is long term in nature.
- https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/russia-and-china-unveil-a-pact-against-america-and-the-west

2.) China is essentially bankrolling Russia right now. That follow the money thing. Without China’s financial support today, Russia would be screwed.

 

Is this good for China? Well, China is getting raw materials on the cheap. But their marriage partner is not holding up their end of the bargain. I think it is safe to say the marriage has started out more than a little on the rocks.
 

b) Why are you surprised by Saudi behavior?

 

I am having a hard time keeping up with exactly what the US / Saudi / middle east relationship was/is under Obama, Trump and now Biden. And what it will be in 1 year and after the next presidential election in the US. And how OPEC overlays over this. And exactly what Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Russia is. 

Edited November 13, 2022 by Viking

[Spekulatius]

@Viking I think the big pact between Russia and China may be more show than a real functional alliance than  NATO. China said OK, you do what you want  inUkraine and let them go first to see what happens. I don’t think they like what they are seeing and the implication for their main target Taiwan.

 

However, it is also telling that China has done almost nothing to help Russia -  No weapon deliveries for most. Russia had to go to a Iran and a North Korea. They saw that Russia got an arrow through their torso with Ukraine and decided “maybe not..at least not yet”.

 

As for the Saudi’s, they just look out for themselves. They buy cheap russian oil and replace what they consume themselves with that cheap oil , so they can export more of their own for full price. Sorry, but it’s just business for us.

Edited November 14, 2022 by Spekulatius

[UK]

What obvious implications possible war ending would have in terms of economies and markets? Perhaps it would be somewhat disinflationary at least in short/mid term? Also bullish for Europe?

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-ukraine-retakes-kherson-u-s-looks-to-diplomacy-before-winter-slows-momentum-11668345883

 

The imminent onset of winter—coupled with fears of inflation spurred by mounting energy and food prices, the billions of dollars of weaponry already pumped into Ukraine, and the tens of thousands of casualties on both sides—has prompted talk in Washington of a potential inflection point in the war, now in its ninth month. The U.S. and its allies are pledging to continue supporting Ukraine, but top officials in Washington are beginning to wonder aloud how much more territory can be won by either side, and at what cost. Some European officials, meanwhile, are more bullish on Ukraine’s chances. “There has to be a mutual recognition that military victory, in the true sense of the word, is maybe not achievable through military means, so therefore you need to turn to other means,” Army Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the top U.S. military officer, told the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday. “There’s also an opportunity here, a window of opportunity, for negotiation.”

 

“It remains to be seen whether or not there’ll be a judgment made as to whether or not Ukraine is prepared to compromise with Russia,” Mr. Biden said at the White House. He added: “They’re going to both lick their wounds, decide…what they’re going to do over the winter, and decide whether or not they’re going to compromise.” Washington has signaled to Ukraine that at a minimum Kyiv needs to appear open to a negotiated solution. Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, conveyed that message to President Volodymyr Zelensky and his lieutenants in Kyiv on Nov. 4, suggesting that Kyiv would gain leverage by showing openness to negotiations, according to people familiar with the discussions. Two European diplomats briefed on the discussions said Mr. Sullivan recommended that Mr. Zelensky’s team start thinking about its realistic demands and priorities for negotiations, including a reconsideration of its stated aim for Ukraine to regain Crimea, which was annexed in 2014.

 

Officials in some European countries, particularly in the east and north, have said that publicly pressing for talks could hurt Ukraine’s efforts and play to Russia’s aims of dividing the alliance. “We need to talk about the cost of peace,” one northern European official said. If the war ends now, “The message the Ukrainians would get is that their fight was meaningless. The message Russia would get is that this is time to refit and to rebuild economically. No one believes [Russia] will stop until they achieve their strategic objective.”

 

Mr. Putin has said that Russia is open to peace talks and argued that if Washington ordered Mr. Zelensky to sit down for negotiations, Kyiv would do so. With the latest setbacks in the battlefield, Western officials have said the Kremlin appears to have backed away from its previous preconditions for talks, such as accepting Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory.

Edited November 14, 2022 by UK

[Dinar]

7 minutes ago, UK said:

What obvious implications possible war ending would have in terms of economies and markets? Perhaps it would be somewhat disinflationary at least in short/mid term? Also bullish for Europe?

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-ukraine-retakes-kherson-u-s-looks-to-diplomacy-before-winter-slows-momentum-11668345883

 

The imminent onset of winter—coupled with fears of inflation spurred by mounting energy and food prices, the billions of dollars of weaponry already pumped into Ukraine, and the tens of thousands of casualties on both sides—has prompted talk in Washington of a potential inflection point in the war, now in its ninth month. The U.S. and its allies are pledging to continue supporting Ukraine, but top officials in Washington are beginning to wonder aloud how much more territory can be won by either side, and at what cost. Some European officials, meanwhile, are more bullish on Ukraine’s chances. “There has to be a mutual recognition that military victory, in the true sense of the word, is maybe not achievable through military means, so therefore you need to turn to other means,” Army Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the top U.S. military officer, told the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday. “There’s also an opportunity here, a window of opportunity, for negotiation.”

 

“It remains to be seen whether or not there’ll be a judgment made as to whether or not Ukraine is prepared to compromise with Russia,” Mr. Biden said at the White House. He added: “They’re going to both lick their wounds, decide…what they’re going to do over the winter, and decide whether or not they’re going to compromise.” Washington has signaled to Ukraine that at a minimum Kyiv needs to appear open to a negotiated solution. Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, conveyed that message to President Volodymyr Zelensky and his lieutenants in Kyiv on Nov. 4, suggesting that Kyiv would gain leverage by showing openness to negotiations, according to people familiar with the discussions. Two European diplomats briefed on the discussions said Mr. Sullivan recommended that Mr. Zelensky’s team start thinking about its realistic demands and priorities for negotiations, including a reconsideration of its stated aim for Ukraine to regain Crimea, which was annexed in 2014.

 

Officials in some European countries, particularly in the east and north, have said that publicly pressing for talks could hurt Ukraine’s efforts and play to Russia’s aims of dividing the alliance. “We need to talk about the cost of peace,” one northern European official said. If the war ends now, “The message the Ukrainians would get is that their fight was meaningless. The message Russia would get is that this is time to refit and to rebuild economically. No one believes [Russia] will stop until they achieve their strategic objective.”

 

Mr. Putin has said that Russia is open to peace talks and argued that if Washington ordered Mr. Zelensky to sit down for negotiations, Kyiv would do so. With the latest setbacks in the battlefield, Western officials have said the Kremlin appears to have backed away from its previous preconditions for talks, such as accepting Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory.

I am sure that it will cause a stock market rally in Europe, led by luxury goods, cosmetics, and spirits - Russia is a big market and Philip Morris International - Russia+Ukraine 10% of revenues.   German machinery companies and Epiroc will benefit - 5% of revenues I believe were from Russia.  Other than that, very hard to say.  As Truman used to say, do you have a one-handed economist?  

 

If Russian energy starts flowing to Europe as before, that's obviously very disinflationary, of course it is not clear whether Europeans will be dumb enough to be at Russia's mercy again.    On the other hand, millions of Ukrainian and Russian refugees are generally hard workers, and highly skilled, so that in turn could push labor inflation up in Europe/USA/Canada if/when these people return back to their homelands.   However, this return will in turn depress demand for real estate in Europe/US/Canada.  

Assuming something along a Marshall plan is done for Ukraine, that probably will be wildly inflationary as this $750bn figure floated somewhere will be spent and where will the West get the money if not by money printing?  Also, given that there has not been a rule of law in Ukraine since 1917, I doubt private capital would be available on any reasonable terms, unless investors considered it charity.    On the other hand, Ukrainian diaspora is very numerous, very patriotic (at least in the small but statistically significant self-selected sample size that I have encountered over the last three decades), and quite wealthy, so perhaps I am wrong and the same way Jews financed Israel in the 1920s-1960s, Ukrainians will finance Ukraine.  Ukraine is a blessed country in terms of agricultural wealth for instance, historically very hard working people, excellent universities, and many very highly skilled engineers/mathematicians/computer programmers.  I would personally buy $10K of Ukrainian reconstruction bonds with zero expectations of ever seeing my money again.  

 

 

[Spekulatius]

The war ending and the sanctions ending are two different things. I believe when the war ends, most sanctions will remain in place. Maybe Europe will start buying some NG from Russia again, but it will be far less than before.

 

I think the iron curtain that has been build between Western Europe and Russia/Belarusian will remain in place.

Edited November 14, 2022 by Spekulatius

[UK]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/14/russias-spy-chief-talk-us-g20-leaders-meet-discuss-ukraine-war/

 

Edited November 14, 2022 by UK

[shhughes1116]

A while back, the Germans gave Ukraine some bridging equipment.  Around 20 systems if my recollection is accurate.  This is in addition to some bridging equipment captured by the Ukrainians outside of Kyiv and Krakiv.  I've been wondering where this bridging equipment would show up on the battlefield.   

 

Now I'm starting to see a handful of the Russian sources I follow suggest that the Ukrainians have moved across the Dnipro in a handful of places directly across from Kherson - not mechanized units, just some small infantry units that could cross a river with inflatables.    

 

Controlling both sides of a river make a river crossing much easier, and the HIMARS have the range to sit on the other side of the Dnipro and hit Russian artillery positions that might be used to attack a river crossing.  The Russian units that retreated from Kherson are likely demoralized and disorganized, short of heavy equipment, and not expecting that the Ukrainians would do something foolish like cross the Dnipro in the Winter.  I'll make a wager that most of the Russian line along the Dnipro is manned by mobiks since no sane military commander would force a crossing of the Dnipro in the Winter.       

 

Which makes me wonder if we are going to see an attack across the Dnipro towards Crimea.  The Russians south of Kherson would have to choose between staying to fight (and possibly getting trapped in a salient without access to Crimea and Melitopol),or withdrawing towards Crimea where they can use the topography - the narrow isthmus - to their advantage.  (The Germans paid heavily for this area during the lead-up to Manstein's attack on Crimea and the siege of Sevastopol.)  Either choice would make the Russian line stretching from Zaporizhzhia to Polohy unstable.  This line has been heavily fortified by the Russians and I'm sure the Ukrainians would appreciate the Russians withdrawing from this line, rather than having to dislodge the Russians by force.        

 

 

 

   

 

 

[Luca]

https://news.sky.com/story/russian-missiles-kill-two-people-in-nato-member-poland-us-intelligence-official-says-12748369

 

This is bad, wondering if NATO will do something.

[Gregmal]

This will be a big hit with the warmongers 

[Xerxes]

Bloomberg spend more than an HOUR on this news. Jesus ! A business network.  

 

The Iraqi drove a French Exocet missile straight in the belly of U.S.S. Stark in the 80s. Their own ally.
 

U.S.S. Vincennes in turn shot down a passenger airliner, few years later. 
 

mistakes and error happens. And frankly this is hardly groundshaking. 
 

Find ways to give Ukrainian more and more defensive tools they have to defend themselves. Don’t waste airtime/energy on “uhhhh 2 missile came in … within inches or accidentally came on that side” 
 

 

[Viking]

If Russia has attacked NATO then this is a big deal. That military alliance thing… Do we need more information? Of course. The problem with wars is they often move in unpredictable directions. 
 

The bottom line, there is no way Russia will let Ukraine win the war. And it looks like Ukraine is winning the war. So Russia will need to get creative.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Viking

[Xerxes]

18 hours ago, shhughes1116 said:

.  (The Germans paid heavily for this area during the lead-up to Manstein's attack on Crimea and the siege of Sevastopol.) 

 

Shhughes you seem to be pretty close to the situation. Or following very closely.  
 

The only part of your post I could relate too or comment about is that it was fall of Sevastopol that gained Von Manstein his Field Marshal’ Baton !! 

[Xerxes]

5 minutes ago, Viking said:

If Russia has attacked NATO then this is a big deal. That military alliance thing… Do we need more information? Of course. The problem with wars is they often move in unpredictable directions. 
 

The bottom line, there is no way Russia will let Ukraine win the war. And it looks like Ukraine is winning the war. So Russia will need to get creative.

I guarantee you (IMO) that of all the things that has happened here in the past six months, the two missile that accidentally (allegedly) went on the other side is not going to high on the list. Once the powwow settles down and once media are done amplifying it and moved on to the next story to amplify. 

[formthirteen]

The 51st Mounted Vodka Brigade is already celebrating the victory over Poland:

 

 

No opinion on the war other than it will be a long one and both sides seem to be losing.

[Viking]

55 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I guarantee you (IMO) that of all the things that has happened here in the past six months, the two missile that accidentally (allegedly) went on the other side is not going to high on the list. Once the powwow settles down and once media are done amplifying it and moved on to the next story to amplify. 

You are assuming it was an accident. Or that it is not the beginning of some part of Russia’s plan. it could also be from Ukrainian defense systems. 
 

I have no idea. But i have also not ruled anything out. Stay inquisitive. Stay open minded. 
—————

We also recently had the explosion of the Nordstream pipeline. No idea what the significance of that will ultimately prove to be. If anything. 
—————

Bottom line, the longer the Ukraine war continues the greater the likelihood  it spreads in an unanticipated/unwelcome direction. Especially if Russia is losing (like today). 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Viking